Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?

This paper demonstrates that developing countries differ considerably from their developed counterparts when focus is on the nature and characteristics of short-run macroeconomic fluctuations. Cycles are generally shorter, and the stylized facts of business cycles across countries are more diverse than those of the rather uniform industrialized countries. Supply-side models are generally superior in explaining changes in output, but a “one-size fits all” approach in formulating policy is inappropriate. Our results also illustrate the critical importance of understanding business regularities as a stepping-stone in the process of designing appropriate stabilization policy and macroeconomic management in developing countries.     

蒙代尔-弗莱明模型在发展中大国的适用与延伸

M-F模型是开放经济宏观经济学的基本模型,其存在的缺陷和局限是理论拓展的主要方向。本文对M-F模型的前提假定和分析过程作出了放松和修正,使其适用于发展中大国的情形。并在M-F模型的货币政策效应分析基础上,提出M-F模型在发展中大国的延伸分析方法,即Semi-M-F模型分析方法,指出发展中大国的货币政策是部分起作用的。最后,对Semi-M-F模型分析方法在中国的应用进行评述。     

Exchange Rate Variability and the Macro-economy: Evidence from Developing and Developed Countries

Abstract

Using annual data, the paper studies the time-series evidence regarding the allocation of fluctuations in the exchange rate between demand components, real growth, and price inflation in a sample of developing and advanced countries. The evidence reveals patterns of interaction between the macro-economy and exchange rate variability. Across developing countries, appreciation decreases the cost of imports and price inflation, while depreciation shrinks the output supply, indicating high dependency on imported goods. The reduction in output supply correlates with higher inflation and an increase in the import value. In contrast, the evidence of the negative effect of currency appreciation on output growth is more prevalent across advanced countries, while depreciation stimulates competitiveness, resulting in higher demand for exports, investment and consumption. Across developing countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth and increases trend price inflation. Across advanced countries, exchange rate variability decreases trend real growth while increasing the variability of price inflation and import growth. Minimizing variability of the exchange rate would be beneficial to sustain higher growth and reduce cyclical variability in developing and advanced countries.     

Bank Efficiency and Macro-economic Factors: The Case of Developing Countries

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency of commercial banks in Asia, Middle East/North Africa, and Africa. To achieve the objective, the stochastic frontier approach (SFA) was used to simultaneously estimate the parameters of the stochastic frontier and the inefficiency model. The results show that the effect of macro-economic factors on bank efficiency differs across region. Cost inefficiency of the commercial banks in the Asian region is negatively related to the real gross domestic product per capita, credit to the private sector, and market concentration but is positively related to trade openness. Banks cost inefficiency in the Middle East/North Africa is negatively related to trade openness but is positively related to market concentration suggesting that banking market in this region should be more open to competition.     

Current-Account Reversals in Developing Countries: The Role of Fundamentals

This paper studies episodes of current-account reversal in developing countries (DCs) in the period 1965–1994. First, a number of persistent shifts (reversals) in the current-account balance dynamics are identified by structural break and segmented trend tests; then, the relationship between these reversals and a set of fundamentals suggested by the intertemporal approach to the current account is investigated in a panel-data set-up. We find that fundamentals play a different role in episodes of persistent deterioration or improvement of the current-account balance in DCs.     

赴俄打工经商之路与发展中俄劳务合作研究

改革开放以来,赴俄打工经商的人大量增加,中俄劳务合作也得到很大发展。但还存在一些问题,为此应做好以下几点：着眼现时,开辟未来;重视劳务合作,搞好组织培训工作;劳务人员应自觉遵守所在国的法律法规。     

论经济全球化对发展中国家的影响及其应对策略

经济全球化使各种生产要素在全球范围内优化组合和资源优化配置,从而促进全球经济的迅速发展,其特征是生产、交换、分配、消费的全球化。它是一把“双刃剑”。它在推动全球生产力大发展、加速世界经济增长的同时,也带来一些负面影响,特别是对发展中国家而言,可以说是积极影响和消极冲击同在、发展机遇和严峻挑战并存。发展中国家要根据本国的实际情况,确定本国参与经济全球化的步骤、速度和深度,采取有利的战略决策和方针政策,完善其应对策略。     

Purchasing Power Parity in Developing Countries: Multi-Period Evidence Under the Current Float

Using panel unit root tests, we examine purchasing power parity (PPP) for US dollar real exchange rates of developing countries during the current floating rate period. Since evidence of PPP may vary from period to period, we examine the data for moving 10-year periods from 1976–85 up to 1990–99. We organize panels based on country characteristics influencing the validity of PPP. Those characteristics include openness, inflation, and the level and growth rate of per capita GDP. Although we find stronger evidence of PPP after 1980, our examination of panel data over 15 10-year periods yields only limited support for PPP.     

Child Labor in Carpet Weaving: Impact of Social Labeling in India and Nepal

Does the labeling of tradable products like carpets which have been produced without child labor increase the welfare of children and their families? This paper presents results of surveys conducted in India and Nepal. The findings suggest a positive link between social labeling and the removal of child laborers for households above the subsistence level. However, for households below the subsistence level, no significant influence has been found.