地区间接融资的金融市场和外商直接投资的正溢出效应

利用我国各省市1985—2004年面板数据分析FDI在地区经济发展中的贡献差异,结果发现,FDI和经济增长没有必然的正相关关系,但是间接融资市场发展比较好的省市,FDI对当地经济的增长有很明显的正溢出效应。因此,加快地区间接融资市场发展,增强FDI的产业后向关联,对于提高FDI对我国地区经济增长的正溢出效应十分重要。     

改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控

改革开放以来,我国经历了数次经济周期和宏观经济政策调整,正确认识与把握中国经济周期的特点,对于改善宏观调控、促进国民经济稳定快速发展有着重要意义。文章首先考察了1978-2007年间中国历次经济周期的运行规律与波动特征,并结合中国实际情况,从所有制结构、社会总供求关系、经济结构、价格体制、调控手段和对外开放度等方面分析宏观调控对我国经济波动形成机制产生的影响;接着从国际经济周期的角度考察了中国、美国与世界经济周期的同步性特征,以及中国与世界其他15个不同市场类型的国家和地区之间经济周期存在的特征事实;最后给出了主要结论及政策建议。     

The Optimal Penal Code vs. Infinite Nash Reversion in Trade Liberalization

This paper derives Abreu's stick-and-carrot strategy optimal penal codes ( Journal of Economic Theory , 1986, 191–225 in a partial equilibrium model that has been widely used to examine trade liberalization. Unless the asymmetry between countries is significant, the optimal penal codes take a simple form. It is also shown that the difference between the most-cooperative pairs of tariffs supported by two schemes, the optimal penal code and infinite Nash reversion, depends crucially on the size of the surplus from exports that a deviating country forgoes when the other country places an embargo, rather than the (punitive) optimum tariff, on imports in the punishment.     

ETHNIC AND GENDER DIFFERENCES IN INTERGENERATIONAL MOBILITY: A STUDY OF 26-YEAR-OLDS IN THE USA

This paper uses the traditional income framework and a non‐monetary framework to estimate intergenerational mobility in economic status for a sample of 26‐year‐old whites, blacks and Hispanics in the USA using data from the first and fifth sweeps of the National Educational Longitudinal Study (1988 and 2000). Intergenerational income mobility is found to be greater for males than for females, although there are differences between whites, blacks and Hispanics. Transition probabilities indicate that Hispanics are the most upwardly mobile in terms of educational attainment and occupational status. Ordered logits are used to estimate the impact of parental education and occupation on educational and occupational outcomes.     

INFLUENCES ON THE TIMING OF FIRST CHILDBEARING

This paper presents evidence that women from different population subgroups respond differently to economic and background influences when timing initial childbearing. Among all groups examined, age at first birth tends to increase as education levels increase, and married women with spouses present tend to be older than other women at first childbirth. Among whites, all economic influences considered–hourly pay rate, nonmarket income, and work during the year prior to childbearing–have a significant influence in deferring first childbirth, but family background does not. Among blacks, family background plays a significant role in determining age at first childbirth, but only one economic influence–the hourly pay rate–is significant. Blacks' response to family background is somewhat greater than their response to hourly pay rate. Race as a separate influence is significant among women age 20 years or under, but that influence disappears among older women. Because of their adverse economic consequences, adolescent pregnancies and unwed motherhood are of mounting concern. This study suggests that, contrary to popular belief, welfare programs do not foster early pregnancy nor do programs to reduce unemployment deter it. Educational achievement, however, serves as a deterrent to early pregnancy among all groups.     

EMPLOYMENT, CRIME, AND RACE

This study examines the relationship between the employability and the criminality of white and black male teenagers. We find that among black teenagers, the employed engage in fewer criminal activities than do the unemployed. Thus, blacks apparently view employment and crime as alternative income-generating activities. On the other hand, employment status seems not to affect the criminal behavior of white male teenagers. Our evidence indicates that in the group studied, whites tend to use employment as a cover for crime or to moonlight in crime. Different legitimate opportunity structures for whites and blacks can explain, in part, the behavioral differences of whites and blacks. One more important policy implication is that job opportunities targeted to high-risk black teenage populations have the additional beneficial effect of reducing crime rates.     

中国经济周期的非对称性和相关性研究

本文利用时间序列模型等计量方法 ,对一些主要宏观经济变量序列进行随机分解和相关性分析 ,对经济周期的非对称性和长尾性质进行大量实证检验 ,对一些主要宏观经济变量序列之间的扰动和关联进行了计量分析 ,从中不仅识别了经济波动当中的各种非对称类型 ,而且分析了产生非对称的原因。本文分析得到的一些重要检验结果 ,可以作为描述中国经济波动的重要典型化事实 ,可以用于进一步分析和判断中国经济的运行趋势 ,检验和校正相应的经济理论。本文认为中国经济周期的非对称 ,主要是由固定资产投资、财政政策和货币政策的非对称性造成的 ,而价格水平和总需求等因素却保持了比较明显的稳定性。通过经济周期的非对称分析和经济变量周期成分之间的关联性分析 ,我们也具体地分析了宏观经济政策的有效性、方向性和时滞性     

Emil Lederer and Joseph Schumpeter on Economic Growth,Technology and Business Cycles

This paper compares Joseph Schumpeter and Emil Lederer with respect to their visions concerning the notions of economic growth, technology and business cycles. Their theoretical investigations in a number of thematic areas seem to converge to similar views. More precisely, both Schumpeter and Lederer regard the capitalist economy as a dynamic system where the introduction of innovations is its distinctive characteristic. In such a system, static analysis based on the concept of equilibrium is useful as an expository device to describe the adjustment mechanisms of the economic system. They also paid attention to the emergence of large oligopolistic firms and considered this development as being interwoven with technological progress. Both economists used similar arguments to emphasize the link between economic development and technological change. In their analyses, Schumpeter and Lederer referred to psychological factors motivating the entrepreneur, in order to explain the forces that set in motion the process of innovation and thus economic development. The concept of technological unemployment is also described in a similar manner by both of them. Regarding the issue of business cycles, Schumpeter and Lederer considered them to be a result of endogenous processes within a capitalist economy. Lederer in his late works, argued in a way analogous to Schumpeter, that economic fluctuations are caused from the disruptions created by innovations, which are introduced discontinuously into the economic system. Conclusively, Schumpeter and Lederer delivered theses which are similar in scope and conclusions probably because they were developed in the same social, political, theoretical and ideological environment and were also well acquainted with each other’s ideas.     

Emil Lederer and Joseph Schumpeter on Economic Growth,Technology and Business Cycles

This paper compares Joseph Schumpeter and Emil Lederer with respect to their visions concerning the notions of economic growth, technology and business cycles. Their theoretical investigations in a number of thematic areas seem to converge to similar views. More precisely, both Schumpeter and Lederer regard the capitalist economy as a dynamic system where the introduction of innovations is its distinctive characteristic. In such a system, static analysis based on the concept of equilibrium is useful as an expository device to describe the adjustment mechanisms of the economic system. They also paid attention to the emergence of large oligopolistic firms and considered this development as being interwoven with technological progress. Both economists used similar arguments to emphasize the link between economic development and technological change. In their analyses, Schumpeter and Lederer referred to psychological factors motivating the entrepreneur, in order to explain the forces that set in motion the process of innovation and thus economic development. The concept of technological unemployment is also described in a similar manner by both of them. Regarding the issue of business cycles, Schumpeter and Lederer considered them to be a result of endogenous processes within a capitalist economy. Lederer in his late works, argued in a way analogous to Schumpeter, that economic fluctuations are caused from the disruptions created by innovations, which are introduced discontinuously into the economic system. Conclusively, Schumpeter and Lederer delivered theses which are similar in scope and conclusions probably because they were developed in the same social, political, theoretical and ideological environment and were also well acquainted with each other’s ideas.     

中国环渤海、长三角、珠三角经济圈之间竞合博弈分析

中国环渤海、长三角、珠三角三大经济圈在竞合的一次性博弈中,各方都会为了各自利益单方面采取不合作的策略,其结果是陷入“囚徒困境”的低效。为了打破由于过度竞争而造成的低效状态,必须寻求区域问的合作。在无限期重复动态博弈下,通过贴现因子的引入,得出三大经济圈合作的可能性与贴现因子的大小成正比。为了促成三大圈之问的合作,必须实施某些约束性法律条款,其中通过调节惩罚幅度及贴现因子可以得到区域间合作的均衡解。在长期中,宏观调控政策在区域合作和协调发展方面起着重要作用。     

Do fiscal responsibility laws matter? Evidence from emerging market economies suggests not

Optimal Currency Area theory stresses the importance of the co-movement of business cycles among Eurozone member states for a successful common currency. In this paper, we show how to decompose economic cycles in a time-frequency framework in order to compare the coherences and phase shifts for Hungary, Poland, Czech Republic, Germany and France. We find that there has been some convergence on the Eurozone economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of divergence in the Eurozone into two groups: a German cluster and the periphery economies.     

Crime and punishment in the “American Dream”

We observe that countries where belief in the “American dream”(i.e., effort pays) prevails also set harsher punishment for criminals. We know that beliefs are also correlated with several features of the economic system (taxation, social insurance, etc). Our objective is to study the joint determination of these three features (beliefs, punitiveness and economic system) in a way that replicates the observed empirical patterns. We present a model where beliefs determine the types of contracts that firms offer and whether workers exert effort. Some workers become criminals, depending on their luck in the labor market, the expected punishment, and an individual shock that we call “meanness”. It is this meanness level that a penal system based on “retribution” tries to detect when deciding the severity of the punishment. We find that when initial beliefs differ, two equilibria can emerge out of identical fundamentals. In the “American” (as opposed to the “French”) equilibrium, belief in the “American dream” is commonplace, workers exert effort, there are high powered contracts (and income is unequally distributed) and punishments are harsh. Economists who believe that deterrence (rather than retribution) shapes punishment can interpret the meanness parameter as pessimism about future economic opportunities and verify that two similar equilibria emerge.     

Business Cycle Synchronization between Euro Area and Central and Eastern European Countries

We analyze the degree of co‐movements in real macroeconomic aggregates across selected euro area and Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries applying a multi‐factor model. Our results suggest that the evolution of the global European factor matches well the narrative of main economic events between 1995 and 2011, capturing among others the recession during the recent global financial and economic crisis. This factor plays a central role in explaining real output growth variability in euro area and is negligible in CEE countries. Furthermore, using Markov switching models and concordance indices, we shed light on an increase in business cycle synchronization, with the degree of concordance between country‐specific and European business cycles being high.     

中国转型期的信贷波动与经济波动

本文基于1981-2002年的季度数据,考察了在经济转轨的不同阶段我国信贷波动的特征,并通过时差相关分析和Granger因果关系检验,分析了信贷波动与经济周期波动的相互关系.结果表明,总体上信贷波动与经济周期波动基本同步,信贷扩张和收缩是产生经济周期波动的显著影响因素,但这种影响从20世纪90年代中期开始有所下降,同时,信贷波动的内生性开始显现.     

Biology, Diseases, and Economics: An Epidemiological History of Slavery in the American South

The economic history of antebellum southern slavery has been and is the subject of ongoing debates among scholars. The literature includes assessments about the efficiency of slavery as well as about the adequacy of slave living standards and diets. Yet this literature under appreciates the important biologic and historical role that parasitic diseases played in the history of slavery. Recognizing the role of parasitic diseases calls into question some prevailing interpretations of slavery. Lacking direct evidence on slave diets, scholars turned to anthropometric evidence as proxies for the living standards of slaves, leading to the prevailing view that adult slaves were given adequate sustenance, but slave infants and children were severely malnourished. We argue it was not slave diets, but the combination of the plantation system and diseases that caused abnormally small slave children. The diseases that concern us, primarily hookworm and malaria, affected slaves ('blacks') and free labor ('whites') differently. Many slaves were concentrated on large plantations with infants and younger children crowded into 'nurseries.' This system allowed the maintenance and spread of diseases that adversely affected younger slaves. Southern white children however were less likely to be raised in conditions so conductive to parasitic diseases. The disease ecology of the antebellum South has implications for the prevailing view that slavery was more efficient than free labor. Biologic evidence indicates that people of tropical West African ancestry are more resilient to the effects of hookworm and malaria than European descendents. Thus when whites did contract these diseases, they were more afflicted than blacks. When slaves entered the adult work force they were taken from disease breeding grounds (slave nurseries) and sent into relatively (for blacks) healthy fields, while whites that went into the fields found a disease environment that was typically worse than that of their childhood. If black adults were more productive than were white adults because of a greater resilience to parasitic diseases, then part of any measured difference in productivity between slave and free farms should be attributed to the disease resistance of African descendents, rather than to any inherent efficiencies of slavery.     

我国职工工资增长因素的实证分析——基于七省市PDM模型

针对近年来“经济高增长但工资低增长”的问题,即劳动要素分配份额不断下降的问题,本文基于2004年至2010年中国统计年鉴关于职工平均工资指数、地区生产总值指数、消费者物价指数、劳动力就业指数以及人力资本投资指数的时间序列以及横截面数据的收集整理,建立计量经济面板数据模型(PDM),提出了一套考察我国职工工资增长的影响因素及其大小的评价方法.并根据模型分析结果,提出了在确保一定经济增长速度的条件下应因地制宜地积极推进收入倍增计划、完善工资保障和补贴制度、建立健全工资谈判机制、加大人力资本投入、协调收入增长与经济增长关系等五项政策建议.     

The Nature of Financial and Real Business Cycles: The Great Moderation and Banking Sector Pro‐Cyclicality

This study takes a fresh look at the nature of financial and real business cycles in OECD countries using annual data series and shorter quarterly economic indicators. It first analyses whether the last cycle has been different compared to previous cycles in terms of length, amplitude, asymmetry and changes of these parameters during expansions and contractions. We also study the degree of economic and financial cycle synchronization between OECD countries but also of economic and financial variables within a given country and gauge the extent to which cycle synchronization changed over time. We next describe the connection between the great moderation and the last cycle. Finally, the study discusses the synchronization between the real economy and the financial sector and provides some new evidence on the banking sector's pro‐cyclicality by using aggregate and bank level. The main findings show that the amplitude of the real business cycle was becoming smaller during the great moderation, but asset price cycles were becoming more volatile. In part, this was linked to developments in the banking sector which tended to accentuate pro‐cyclical behaviour. Greater synchronization of cycles may help explain the severity of the crisis.     

HAS THE QUALITY OF IMMIGRANTS DECLINED? EVIDENCE FROM THE LABOR MARKET ATTACHMENT OF IMMIGRANTS AND NATIVES

This is an investigation of the labor market activities of U.S. immigrants who arrived from the 1960s through the 1980s. Relative to natives, upon arrival male immigrants who arrived during the 1980s are more likely to be persistently jobless than are male immigrants who arrived during the 1960s. The increased disengagement of immigrant arrivals from the U.S. labor market appears solely in the form of labor market withdrawal and has not manifested itself in increased institutionalization. Though the "new immigration" apparently does not increase fiscal burdens on the penal system, it nonetheless is expanding the dependent population. The greater labor market idleness of today's immigrants relative to pre-1970 arrivals is consistent with a growing body of economic evidence suggesting a deterioration of U.S. immigrants' labor market capital and success during the post war period.     

Stability through cycles

Economic variables like GDP growth, employment, interest rates and consumption show signs of cyclical behavior. Many variables display multiple cycles, with periods ranging in between 5 to even up to 100 years. We argue that multiple cycles can be associated with long-run stability of the economic system, provided that the cycle periods are such that interference is rare or absent. For a large sample of important variables, including key variables for the US, UK and the Netherlands, we document that this is indeed the case.     

Punitive Entanglements: The “War on Gangs” and the Making of a Transnational Penal Apparatus in the Americas

This paper analyses the export-import business of penal policies that accompanies the “war on transnational street gangs” between the United States and Central America. It argues that far from being a unidirectional export of punitive politics from the United States towards Central America, many of these punitive exports travel “back home”. This creates transnational punitive entanglements that contribute to the contingent convergence of punitive geopolitics and domestic politics in the guise of a transnational penal apparatus that integrates law enforcement agencies and military forces, securocratic epistemic communities and national political entrepreneurs into a functionally cohesive but decentred transnational security structure engaged in a multilayered punitive containment of transnational street gangs across the Americas.