中国农贷的减贫增收效应：贫困县与非贫困县的分层比较

本文运用分位数回归（QR）和工具变量分位数回归（IVQR）方法,对比分析了我国2010年贫困县和非贫困县的农户信贷、财政支出、农村资本形成等对不同收入水平农民的减贫增收效果。结果显示：农户信贷对非贫困县农民收入增长起到了显著的推动作用,但是在不同分位数水平下,其影响大小存在一定差异;相反,国家级贫困县的农户信贷却并没能成为推动农民收入增长的显著资源要素,且随着分位数条件分布的不断提高,其影响系数服从明显的“倒U型”分布。除此之外,财政支出仅仅对非贫困县的中高收入和最高收入组的农民增收有积极影响,但对其他收入层次及贫困县农民增收效应均显著为负;农村资本形成对非贫困县最低、中低收入组以及贫困县（最高收入组除外）农民增收具有显著推动作用。     

实现共同富裕目标下我国居民收入变动的总量与结构特征

共同富裕是社会主义的本质要求和最终目标。实现共同富裕涉及“收入总量”和“分配结构”两个关键测度指标。我国国民经济与居民收入在中长期和总量层面已经呈现同步同向趋势，但在短期和分配结构层面却可能背离。研究发现：区域间城镇居民收入差距开始取代城乡收入差距，成为引起收入群体分配差距拉大的主因；新冠疫情对城镇居民增收的负向冲击显现，收入来源过于单一的风险加剧；中等收入群体分别向高收入群体和低收入群体流动特征显著，中间收入阶层数量减少，“倒金字塔型”分配结构开始呈现出“哑铃型”演化趋势。在此基础上，本文总结了他国经验和教训，提出重点聚焦创新发展与收入提高、高收入和低收入居民的收入差距、不同群体增收这三方面关系，以促进共同富裕目标的实现。     

民族地区旅游业发展与居民减贫关联研究——基于民族八省区面板数据的实证研究

以少数民族地区旅游业发展和居民减贫的关联为研究对象,分析少数民族地区旅游业发展和居民减贫的现实情况,建立Panel Data模型,利用民族八省区2001~2016年的数据,对少数民族地区旅游业发展和居民减贫的关联进行实证分析。研究发现,少数民族地区旅游业发展特别是旅游收入增加对居民减贫具有正向作用,旅游业完成投资、旅游收入占GDP的比重、旅游从业人员的比重、国内游客年均增长比率、国内游客总花费增长比率对贫困发生率有负向影响。发展旅游业促进少数民族地区居民减贫,应缩小贫富差距和城乡居民收入差距;继续扩大旅游投资并提高投资效率;提升旅游业发展过程中的城镇就业承载力;推进产业结构向高级化程度转变;重视当地贫困人口的参与性和受益性。     

农村养老保险能改善老年家庭贫困脆弱性吗？

社会养老保险是应对我国当前人口老龄化背景下老年贫困问题的核心制度安排。文章基于2011年和2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查(CHARLS)微观数据,运用PSM-DID模型,实证检验农村养老保险对农村老年家庭贫困脆弱性的影响。研究发现,养老保险可促进金融资产与耐用消费品资产的累积,发挥减贫效应,但其抑制了农村老年家庭土地资产的减贫作用,未能影响到生产性资产的减贫作用;养老保险强化了教育人力资本降低贫困脆弱性的作用,但其通过减轻医疗支出负担、提高老人健康人力资本而改善家庭贫困脆弱性的效果不显著。进一步研究表明,农村养老保险对人口结构最完善的联合家庭减贫效果最有效,空巢老年家庭次之;相较于中低龄老人家庭,养老保险改善高龄老人家庭贫困的效果不佳;家庭人均消费水平越高,农村养老保险的减贫效应越好。     

互联网金融对减贫的福利效应

金融扶贫是提升贫困者福利水平和实现可持续脱贫的一项重要方式,互联网金融减贫具有一定的比较优势。贫困者的减贫福利包括增加物质资本、人力资本、社会资本。以2011~2018年我国31个省份的面板数据为样本,采用系统GMM估计方法进行实证检验。结果表明:互联网金融发展能够显著地直接促进减贫的物质资本积累和社会资本积累,且比传统金融更有优势;同时,互联网金融基于经济增长效应和收入分配效应又能够间接实现减贫的福利增益。根据实证结论,为实现减贫长效性,从互联网金融建设、与教育扶贫相结合、支持产业扶贫等方面提出政策建议。     

经济增长、收入分配与贫困缓解——基于中国农村贫困变动的实证分析

基于是否有利于穷人,结合收入分配状况和贫困水平的变化来审视中国经济增长,无疑具有重要的现实意义和深刻的政策含义。本文在建立农村居民收入Lorenz曲线的基础上,利用贫困指示增长曲线的实证分析揭示,1985～2003年间中国的经济增长不是有利于穷人的增长,农村穷人在经济增长中的获益少于富人;对农村贫困变动的测度和分解表明,经济增长使农村居民收入增加,大幅度减少了贫困,但农村居民的收入差距不断拉大,收入不平等加剧部分地抵消了经济增长的减贫成效。     

从统计看北京收入分配结构和格局

本文从宏观和微观两个层面对北京收入分配状况进行了分析。从宏观收入分配格局看,初次分配阶段政府、企业、．居民三者的分配比例为15：35：50,再分配阶段三者分配比例为30：25：45收入分配逐渐向居民倾斜,但再分配对居民收入的调节作用不明显,从微观收入分配模式看,工资性收入和转移性收入是居民收入的主要来源;居民收入差距呈缩小趋势但一些问题不容忽视,工资与效益“不同步”,政府再分配调节作用“不明显”,居民消费倾向低,城乡、行业收入差距大因此,应通过稳就业、转变经济发展方式,促使居民收入增长具有内生动力;缩小居民收入差距,共享经济发展成果;强化社会保障,加大政府调节力度;扩大内需,实现经济可持续发展     

半强制股利政策与上市公司股利分配

文章以半强制股利政策对我国上市公司股利分配的影响效应为主线,选取2000—2017年A股上市公司股利分配数据,从时间序列、企业性质、行业、证券板块等层面研究上市公司股利分配的特征和变化趋向以及存在的问题.研究发现:A股上市公司股利分配对半强制性股利政策表现出明显的迎合趋向;上市公司不分配股利的行为显著降低,但股利分配比率依然偏低;分属不同行业、企业性质和证券板块的上市公司在股利分配上存在明显差异.     

中国税制结构变迁有利于降低收入不平等吗？

伴随中国经济的持续较快发展与人均收入水平的不断提高,收入不平等问题近年来备受社会各界的关切。鉴于税制结构变迁与收入不平等之间的关系在理论界仍未形成共识,本文首先从理论层面剖析了商品税和所得税对收入不平等的作用机理,然后在对中国1998—2013年城乡居民收入基尼系数进行测度的基础上,通过建立静态与动态面板数据模型实证考察中国税制结构变迁对收入不平等的影响。研究发现：一是虽然所得税能显著降低城乡居民收入不平等,但企业所得税却相比个人所得税更为有效;二是商品税在一定程度上助推了城乡居民收入不平等,具有较为明显的累退性;三是经济发展水平、对外开放程度、人口结构以及人力资本对收入不平等的影响不尽相同;四是收入不平等在中国具有显著的递延惯性。本文的研究结论为中国新一轮税制改革以及税制结构优化具有重要的指导意义。     

收入差距、社会资本与居民贫困

研究目标：分析收入差距与社会资本及其交互作用对居民贫困的影响,并探讨两者的影响机制。研究方法：构建Logit等计量模型,并采用三阶段最小二乘法（3SLS）与工具变量法（IV Probit）进行稳健性检验。研究发现：在社区层面上,收入差距导致了教育与财政资源在区县间的配置不均等,阻碍了医疗保险制度的发展以及产业结构的提升,进而提高了居民的贫困发生率;在个体层面上,收入差距降低了居民对教育资源的可及性,恶化了居民的健康水平,从而导致居民进入贫困状态。社会资本能够降低居民发生贫困的概率,同时也能够缓解收入差距对居民贫困的不利影响;提升就业能力与收入水平、增加教育与医疗投资、改善社会经济地位、强化融资能力等是社会资本缓解贫困的主要渠道与机制。研究创新：采用具有代表性的中国家庭追踪调查数据,研究收入差距与社会资本对居民贫困的作用机制,指出社会资本是缓冲收入差距对居民贫困不利影响的重要保障。研究价值：为相关理论研究提供更多的经验证据和路径解释;在实践中,对减贫、防贫具有指导意义。     

The Effect of Income Distribution on the Ability of Growth to Reduce Poverty: Evidence from Rural and Urban African Economies

The present study examines the extent to which income distribution affects the ability of economic growth to reduce poverty, based on 1990s data for a sample of rural and urban sectors of African economies. Using the basic‐needs approach, an analysis‐of‐covariance model is derived and estimated, with the headcount, gap, and squared gap poverty ratios serving as the respective dependent variables, and the Gini coefficient and PPP‐adjusted incomes as explanatory variables. The study finds that the responsiveness of poverty to income growth is a decreasing function of inequality, albeit at varying rates for the three poverty measures: lowest for the headcount, followed by the gap and fastest for the squared gap. The ranges for the income elasticity in the sample are estimated at: 0.02–0.68, 0.11–1.05, and 0.10–1.35, respectively, for these poverty measures. Furthermore while, on average, the responsiveness of poverty to income growth appears to be the same between the rural and urban sectors, there are substantial sectoral differences across countries. The results suggest the need for country‐specific emphases on growth relative to inequality.     

REGIONAL SHORT-RUN EFFECTS OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION IN BRAZIL

We use a single-country multi-regional computable general equilibrium model to evaluate regional short-run impacts of reduction in import tariffs resulting from recent free trade area agreements, on poverty and distribution of income in Brazil. Results show that trade can reduce inter-regional income inequality, but poor urban households lose with trade liberalization. Trade policy alone is not sufficient for achieving more equitable income distribution goals in Brazil. Without greater investment in human and physical capital, incomes in most regions of Brazil are likely to lag behind incomes in the South/Southeast, the most developed regions in the country.     

农地确权、金融可得性与农户家庭贫困脆弱性

本文基于2013年和2015年中国家庭金融调查数据,应用双重差分方法考察新一轮农地确权对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的直接影响,结合中介效应模型和三重差分模型检验农地确权影响家庭贫困脆弱性的中介机制和调节机制。研究结果表明,农地确权能够降低农户家庭未来陷入贫困或持续贫困的概率,其间接路径是通过促进农户从事非农就业降低家庭贫困脆弱性。金融可得性在农地确权影响农户家庭贫困脆弱性中起到调节效应,金融可得性越高,农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用越大。对处于不同贫困脆弱状态的农户家庭而言,农地确权降低贫困脆弱性的作用存在差异。上述结论对通过土地产权制度改革推进持续巩固脱贫攻坚成果和相对贫困治理工作意义重大,并为评估新一轮农地确权政策提供了新思路。     

Who's Afraid of Rural Poverty? The Story Behind America's Invisible Poor

Rural poverty and rural issues in general remain invisible in the United States to the urban majority. Rural sociologists have tried to raise these issues, but even in the field of sociology, they have been sidelined for several generations. Progressives treat urban poverty with sympathy and rural poverty with contempt because the latter is stereotyped as a problem that afflicts only white families, who are then blamed for failings of the economy as a whole. In fact, persistent rural poverty is concentrated in pockets in Appalachia, the Mississippi Delta, and several other regions, many of which are inhabited by blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans. Nevertheless, it seems that making rural poverty as much a concern among progressive Democrats as urban poverty has been will require a different political orientation towards rural issues. Such an approach was visible briefly during Barack Obama's 2008 presidential campaign, but it has had little influence on other candidates for high office.     

The evolving role of agricultural technology indicators and economic growth in rural poverty: has the ideas machine broken down?

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of technical progress in agriculture on changes in rural poverty in Pakistan by using annual data from 1975–2011. Data is analyzed by the set of sophisticated econometric techniques i.e., cointegration theory, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, etc. The results reveal that agricultural technology indicators act as an important driver to alleviate rural poverty in Pakistan. Granger causality test indicate that causality runs from technological indicators to rural poverty but not vice versa. However, agricultural irrigated land and industry value added, both does not Granger cause rural poverty, which holds neutrality hypothesis between the variables. Variance decomposition analysis shows that among all the technological indicators, agricultural machinery in form of tractors have exerts the largest contribution to changes in rural poverty in Pakistan. The study concludes that agricultural technology indicators are closely associated with economic growth and rural poverty in Pakistan. Technology in Pakistan has a low pace but still old technology continuously contributed towards poverty reduction. The question whether idea machine is broken down or not? Still need further exploration.     

广西农村人力资本投资与农民收入的经济学浅析

知识经济时代,人力资本成为科技进步和社会经济发展的重要资源和保证,它是影响人们收入的决定性因素。目前,广西的经济建设虽然取得了巨大成就,但是在农村的人力资本投资严重滞后,导致农民收入增长缓慢。文章基于经济学视角,在前人研究的基础上,对广西农村人力资本投资与农民收入进行实证分析,得出结论：农村劳动力受教育程度与农民人均纯收入之间存在相关关系,而人力资本存量不足是导致农民收入低下的重要因素。最后,针对目前广西农村人力资本投资存在的问题提出合理的政策建议。     

国家审计如何提升贫困地区农村居民收入？——兼论5年过渡期巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果的审计应对策略

选取2013—2019年的省级面板数据，研究国家审计对贫困地区农村居民收入的影响，结果表明：（1）国家审计能够显著提升贫困地区农村居民的人均可支配收入。（2）督促财政资金的持续投入、提升财政资金管理的规范程度和绩效水平是国家审计提高贫困地区农村居民收入的重要机制。（3）在绩效导向文化消极、信息技术水平较高的地区，国家审计对贫困地区农村居民收入的提升效应更显著。研究结论可以为国家审计聚焦乡村振兴专项资金的真实合法效益，巩固拓展脱贫攻坚成果同乡村振兴有效衔接提供有益借鉴。     

Competitive Pressure on the Indian Households: A General Equilibrium Approach

How would competitive pressure impact upon the income distribution and the poverty of household groups? We analyse the gains in efficiency and productivity due to competitive pressure, and its distributional effects using a general equilibrium input–output framework. Efficient utilization of the available resources, technical progress and free trade constitute our sources of growth. Welfare would increase under competition, but the income distribution would become more skewed. Rural household groups would stand to lose relative to the urban ones. Urban poverty would be reduced significantly more than rural. In fact, the agricultural worker would even suffer from an increase in poverty. The study shows that competitive pressure has a positive effect on efficiency, productivity and poverty, but an adverse effect on the income distribution in the Indian economy.     

六安市某县新农合满意度及其影响因素分析

目的:了解六安市某县居民对新农合的知晓程度、满意度评价及影响满意度的因素。方法:本研究利用方便随机抽样的方法于六安市某县医院调查了57个患者以管中窥豹进行探讨研究。结果:①对新农合起付线、报销比例、报销程度了解的患者比例均不超过50%;②对新农合制度满意度评价尚可,但仍有提升空间,非常满意或者比较满意的患者比例为80%左右;③所有患者表示第二年愿意继续参保,但是参保缴费保守;④随着参合时间的增加,新农合满意度增加,男性对新农合的满意程度高于女性。结论:提高新农合满意度则需要保持现有缴费基础上,完善经办机构管理,提高经办效率,提高报销比例。     

The Incidence of Economic Stress in Affluent Areas

A bstract . Several governmental programs attempt to relieve economic stress for given segments of the population. Their success is often contingent upon how accurately economic distress in given areas can be identified and measured. The indicator most commonly used is the poverty rate or a related measure, such as the proportion of persons with incomes below 150% of the designated poverty threshold. However, these poverty thresholds are determined nationally and thus fail to take account of local income levels or variations in living costs. Nationally determined poverty thresholds obscure the existence of economic distress in affluent areas. This paper explores an alternate methodology that relates household income at the census tract level to county median household income in order to identify areas of significant poverty. The findings are then compared with official poverty statistics. The analysis is performed for Nassau and Suffolk Counties, two affluent suburban counties located on Long Island , adjacent to New York City. The data used came from the 1990 decennial census.