Crime Rates,Clearance Rates and Enforcement Effort: The Case of Houston,Texas*

Abstract . Two time series relationships with respect to police and criminal activities are analyzed. These relationships are: 1. That between police input and police output where the latter was measured by arrest and convictions rates and the former by expenditures and number of officers and, 2. The hypothetical one between the probability of arrest (the clearance ratio; i.e., the proportion of reported crimes for which arrests were made) and crime rates. Theoretically, an increase in expenditures for police effort would cause an increase in the clearance rate and a concomitant reduction in the crime rate. The results of this study showed little or no response in clearance and crime rates to small changes in police expenditures. However, there was evidence that large changes in police effort did produce some response in both clearance and crime rates. The implication of these findings was that the marginal product of police input was small.     

Short-term forecasting of crime

The major question investigated is whether it is possible to accurately forecast selected crimes 1 month ahead in small areas, such as police precincts. In a case study of Pittsburgh, PA, we contrast the forecast accuracy of univariate time series models with naïve methods commonly used by police. A major result, expected for the small-scale data of this problem, is that average crime count by precinct is the major determinant of forecast accuracy. A fixed-effects regression model of absolute percent forecast error shows that such counts need to be on the order of 30 or more to achieve accuracy of 20% absolute forecast error or less. A second major result is that practically any model-based forecasting approach is vastly more accurate than current police practices. Holt exponential smoothing with monthly seasonality estimated using city-wide data is the most accurate forecast model for precinct-level crime series.     

An evaluation of the Federal Legal Services Program: Evidence from crime rates and property values

This paper uses the city-level roll-out of legal service grants to evaluate their effects on crime. Using Uniform Crime Reports from 1960 to 1985, the results show that there is a short-run increase of 7% in crimes reported and a 16% increase in crimes cleared by arrest. Results show an increase in the staffing of police officers in cities that received legal services. These cities are also associated with having higher median property values 10 years later. This supports the narrative that legal services changed police behavior through litigation or threats of litigation.     

Economy and Race: Interactive Determinants of Property Crime in the United States, 1958-1995

ABSTRACT Drawing upon rational choice, routine activity, and social disorganization theories, this study investigates changes in rates of property crime known (reported) to police in the United States from 1958 to 1995. Predictor variables include changes in rates of inflation; technological, cyclical, and frictional unemployment; arrest rates for property crimes disaggregated by race (ARPCDR); the interaction of ARPCDR and technological unemployment (to test effects of rising unemployment on whites versus blacks); and a measure of police provisioning. A Beach-MacKinnon Full Maximum-Likelihood FGLS AR1 Method (accompanied by residual analysis) is employed. Significant positive effects are established for (a) inflation, (b) cyclical unemployment, (c) frictional unemployment, and (d) the interaction of white arrest rates and technological unemployment. Police provisioning is not found to be significant. Policy implications are explored along with future policy considerations.     

The Difference Between Short and Long Run Effects of Police Outlays on Crime: Policing Deters Criminals Initially, But Later They May 'Learn by Doing'

Abstract . In the long run a positive relationship of police expenditurescrime is derived in models which explain criminal behavior In the short run, however, the statistical results point to the possible deterring effect of police expenditures. A theoretical model is constructed to explain the statistical difference of the short and long run effect of police outlays on crime. As police expenditures increase, crime level diminishes. As time elapses, criminals may adjust to the new level of police effort, improve their performance and at the same level of outlays, increase their criminal activities. This phenomenon could be termed “Criminals’Learning by Doing”. It could explain why, over the long run, the level of crime is positively associated with police expenditures. The empirical analysis examines pooled cross sectional time series of 47 states over the period 1970 to 1980—a total of 517 cases.     

POLICING FOR THE PEOPLE

Increased spending on law and order over the last decade has not been matched by reductions in crime. The government's claim to have reduced crime does not reflect reality and the public know this. The way to rebuild public confidence and tackle crime is to put more police officers back on the streets. This article argues that in order to do this, four key reforms of the police are needed: a reduction in bureaucracy and central intervention; greater accountability to local communities; more co-operation between forces; and the modernisation of working practices.     

Constructing and using a multiplicative model of the impact of societal changes on violent crime

This study aims at exploring the possibilities of using a multiplicative model when explaining the impact of societal changes on violent crime in Swedish municipalities. A theory of criminality in municipalities is presented which is founded on an analysis of individual decision-making on the commission of crimes. According to this theory, the level of criminality in a given municipality is determined by two average properties for the individuals who stay there — the average amount of occasions when the circumstances are favorable to the commission of crimes and the average probability of committing a crime on such an occasion. On the basis of the theory, a model of the relationship between criminality and specified characteristics of the municipality has been constructed. Criminality is assumed to be the product of a range of factors, each of which is a linear function of current and earlier values of a municipality characteristic. Using this model, the relationship between changes in the level of criminality and variables measuring independent characteristics at different points in time has been empirically analyzed. The data used are of register type and refer primarily to the years 1970, 1975, and 1980. Model parameters are estimated by a least-square fit. It is found that the multiplicative model explains much more of the variance in changes in the level of criminality than does the linear model including the same municipality characteristics. In the multiplicative model. independent variables obtain weights that give a different picture of the causal processes that affect criminality as compared with the linear model.     

Stability of a crime level equilibrium

We consider crime level in an economic market with a supply of potential criminals. These criminals differ in their opportunity cost for committing crime, reflecting differences in the value of foregone opportunities such as performing productive labor. The realized demand is influenced by the expected value for crime, which depends on several socio-economic variables including wealth, police enforcement, and police arrest ability. After determining the equilibria level suggested by our approach, we propose a dynamic setup and study the stability of this system. Two critical enforcement levels are determined. Exceeding the lower enforcement threshold will push crime to stabilize (converge) to an equilibrium level. Correspondingly, exceeding the higher enforcement threshold will collapse the crime market to zero.     

Foreclosure,vacancy and crime

This paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime. To overcome confounding factors, a difference-in-difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime, violent crime rates increase by roughly 19% once the foreclosed home becomes vacant – an effect that increases with length of vacancy. We find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude.     

Is there a compensating wage differential for high crime levels? First evidence from Europe

This paper investigates whether high regional crime levels lead to a compensating wage differential paid by firms in the respective region. Using data from German social-security records, official police statistics and official statistics for 2003–2006, I consider both violent and non-violent crimes and use three-way error-components estimators to control for individual and regional heterogeneity. The findings suggest that wages are practically unrelated to changes in crime rates. This result is robust over a wide range of subgroups. There is, however, some evidence that crime rates influence land prices.     

state Lotteries and Crime

A bstract . The impact of having a state lottery on the rate of crime against property in that state is estimated. Arguments in the standard economic model of criminal activity employed here include the unemployment rate, real income per capita, presence of the death penalty in the state as a proxy for general severity of punishment , police officers per capita, the percentage of population between the ages of 5 and 24, and the presence of a state lottery. Because the decision of a state to operate a lottery may correlate with crime rates, a selectivity model was run to extract any bias, but no such bias was found. The analysis used data for the 50 states plus the District of Columbia from 1970 through 1984. The results suggest that presence of a state lottery is associated with a crime rate higher by about 3 percent, an effect both statistically significant and practically important.     

The deterrence hypothesis revisited

This study explores the causes of crime and the differences in deterrent effects of policing on crimes among rural, suburban, and urban communities. We hypothesize that certain numbers of all crimes are unaffected by policing due to their high net return; policing deters only marginal crimes. That is, unlike other research efforts, we recognize that there is a level of crime indigenous to a given type of community about which little can be done, although a particular community can affect deviations from this level. By introducing this ‘natural rate' of crime we are able to empirically reveal the deterrence effect of police expenditures upon all types of property crimes except robberies. The study analyzes 230 communities in a system of six simultaneous equations, using police, crime, and other socio-economic variables. The model can be used by state and regional policy-makers to more effectively allocate resources to the different types of communities under their jurisdiction and among the various police functions designed to deter specific types of crime.     

Applied nonlinear dynamical system in social science. A nonlinear model for social control system: an application to Italian coercion system

Does an increase in police strength discourage an increase in crime levels? It would seem very likely so, despite the many platitudes common everywhere, even in the most serious literature on the subject. This research study, using Non-Linear Analysis on the Italian crime situation from 1985 to 2003, shows an almost non controvertible result. The police force really does seem to have a deterrence function on crime, particularly evident from the 90s on, where, as police strength increases, the number of crimes decrease. One of the most interesting aspects deriving from the non-linear model used, is the specific measurement of the number of crimes that might have been committed and that were not in virtue of the deterrent action of the Police Force. Up to now, such an acquisition seems to be lacking from other so called ‘traditional’ research, where such ‘indirect’ deterrence appears easily hypothesized, but impossible to determine. For this reason too, the adoption of a non-linear analysis logic shows its heuristic superiority able to shed light on certain aspects that in other analysis models would remain in the shadows.     

The Effects of Criminal Experience on the Incidence of Crime

A bstract . A hypothesis has been analyzed that criminals learn by doing, that with experience criminals increase their activity so that with level outlays on police the incidence of crime may be increasing. This hypothesis is tested by statistical analysis of time series cross sectional data on crime levels, police outlays and various socioeconomic variables. The results confirm that "learning by doing"—accumulating criminal experience—increases criminal activity, that police outlays have a negative and significant effect on crime and that certain socioeconomic characteristics have a significant effect on crime.     

The Economics of the Criminal Behavior of Young Adults

A bstract This study uses a combination of individual-level and county-level data to estimate an economic model of crime for young adults similar to that used by Becker (1968) and Trumbull (1989). In order to estimate a model of crime in which both individual-level and county-level data are used, it is necessary to take account of the bias introduced by using aggregate-level data in conjunction with individual-level data. In order to eliminate this bias, a technique derived by Moulton (1990) is employed. Results from a logit regression model indicate that race, sex. and peer pressure have statistically significant effects on the probability that a young adult will commit a crime. Results also suggest that police presence, as measured by county-level per capita police expenditures, does not deter young adults from committing crimes.     

Urban crime and the price of heroin

This paper investigates the relationship between a price index for retail heroin and monthly crimes reported to police. A time series model is presented and estimated whose estimable parameters include the price elasticity of demand for heroin and the elasticity of crime with respect to price. Based on data for Detroit, it is estimated that a 50% increase in the price would result in a 14% increase in the total property crime and a 13% decrease in the quantity of heroin consumed. The largest effects would be on burglaries and robberies in poor nonwhite neighborhoods.     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

After the economic crisis of 2008: Economic conditions and crime in the last decade for the case of Spain

The economic approach to crime confirms that the deterioration of economic conditions influences the motivation of potential offenders to commit a crime or not. The relationship between crime and the economy status received considerable attention among the international literature. However, in Spain, there are just few studies that analyse this connection, and those that analyse the influence of the deterioration of the economy on crime after the crisis that began in 2008 are practically non-existent. In order to fill this gap, this research applies the difference-GMM estimator for a sample of 47 provinces during the 2010–2018 period and controls the influence of different economic, demographic and dissuasive factors on the crime rate. The results obtained are similar to those of different investigations, since in the face of worsening economic conditions, no evidence of a positive and uniform effect on the crime rate is detected, especially when it differs according to different types of crimes possible. However, that relationship does exist and is robust in property crimes. Another common result in the empirical literature is also confirmed: adolescent male cohorts present the highest crime rates.     

An analytic approach to the study of gun control policies

This paper explores the theoretic and policy implications of the assumption that the objective of gun ownership is to enhance the security of gun owners and their associates. Security is defined as the probability of not being victimized in a criminal assault and not suffering accidental injury or death in a gun-related incident. An elementary mathematical model is constructed and analyzed. This model and controversial data currently available lead to the conclusion that the percentage of the population owning guns should be larger than now it is. This result does not imply that gun ownership should be made more accessible. Gun ownership may be one possible way to reduce crime. Other ways to achieve this objective are better police control, education, socio-economic justice, etc. The possibility that these alternatives are more effective crime deterrents is not explored in this paper, nor in the studies that provided the data. This evaluation is needed before deciding whether increased gun ownership is the policy that should be adopted in order to reduce crime.     

The deterrent impact of police: An examination of a locally provided public service

This paper develops and empirically tests a model of crime deterrence in an urban area. There are two important departures from past efforts to study the impact of criminal sanctions. The first is that the provision of sanctions from the local public sector is modeled; this is accomplished by specifying the distributional goals of local government and by specifying the production of safety. The second departure is that actual crime and reported crime are differentiated theoretically and in the empirical work. An empirical test of the model, using a unique neighborhood data set, shows that police deter crime significantly; however, this deterrent impact cannot be demonstrated without the distinction between actual and reported crime.