中国外汇储备和物价水平关系的实证分析

本文采用1994～2010年的年度数据,在单整和协整检验的基础上,利用Granger因果检验对中国外汇储备与物价水平的内在联系进行实证分析。结果表明,外汇储备变动和物价水平变动之间不存在格兰杰因果关系。因此.通过人民币升值来减少外汇储备并不是抑制国内通货膨胀的有效方法。     

非对称性利率政策对中国房价影响的实证分析

房地产行业资金密集性的特点决定了其必然受到利率政策的重大影响。本文从利率政策的非对称性视角出发,区分扩张性和紧缩性利率政策区间,建立向量自回归与误差修正模型,并进行脉冲响应和方差分解分析,研究结果表明扩张性利率政策对房价的促进作用要强于紧缩性利率政策对房价的抑制作用。如果欲促进房地产复苏,则降低与投资者和消费者成本收益紧密相关的短中期存贷款利率;如果欲遏制房价过快上涨,则提高短期存款利率和长期贷款利率。根据实证研究的结果,文章提出了有针对性的政策建议。     

欧盟15国经济衰退的实证分析

本文基于欧盟15国1990—2013年的季度数据,实证分析了经济衰退与政府债务总额、进出口、失业率、薪资总额以及房价等指标之间的关系,结果发现:(1)欧盟15国在经济衰退阶段的平均振幅和累积损失分别为3.38%和5.28%,平均波长约为4个季度;(2)欧洲在2002、2008和2011年分别发生了大范围的经济同步衰退现象,政府债务和房价也随之同步变动;(3)出口、薪资总额和房价与经济衰退存在1%水平上的显著相关关系。     

涨跌停板制度对期货市场价格发现过程及波动性的影响--基于上海期货交易所的实证研究

本文通过检验在出现涨跌停板之后一个交易日的期货价格及其波动性的变化情况,研究了涨跌停板制度对上海期货交易所期货价格变动的影响。研究结果显示,对不同的期货品种,涨跌停板制度的影响存在一定的差异,但总体而言,涨跌停板制度并没有起到防范价格过度反应和降低市场波动性的作用。相反,在一定程度上延缓了期货市场价格发现功能的发挥,增大了市场的波动性。     

具有网络效应的产品的价格竞争分析

具有网络效应的产品是指消费者在消费这种产品时所获得的效用会随着购买这种产品的其他消费者数量的增加而不断增加的产品。本文通过建立一个有两个厂商的离散动态决策模型,研究在分散决策的市场经济中生产具有网络效应的产品的厂商的价格决策对产品市场占有率的影响,价格决策影响产品市场占有率的动态演化的过程,以及市场均衡的务件和特征,包括产品不占有市场、占有部分市场以及上有今都市场的价格条件。     

SOCIO‐ECONOMIC STUDIES ON SUICIDE: A SURVEY

Abstract In this paper, we review economic theories and empirical studies on the socio‐economic aspects of suicide. Through our survey, we would like to emphasize the importance of studying suicide by employing a ‘rational’ approach that complements the medical perspective on suicide. We first introduce major economic theories of suicide and then present a summary of a variety of empirical studies from the socio‐economic perspective. To shed light on the mixed empirical evidence, we employ a meta‐regression method to investigate how the existing empirical results vary. We have identified a publication bias, not highlighted previously, in the existing literature with respect to several commonly employed socio‐economic factors. Several characteristics of existing studies have been identified as influencing the qualitative outcome. We then discuss the recent developments in economic studies on suicide, on the basis of the authors’ ongoing project on suicide. In the concluding section, we point out some issues for further studies.     

STABILISATION POLICY,RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND PRICE‐LEVEL VERSUS INFLATION TARGETING: A SURVEY

We survey literature comparing inflation targeting (IT) and price‐level targeting (PT) as macroeconomic stabilisation policies. Our focus is on New Keynesian models and areas that have seen significant developments since Ambler's (2009, Price‐level targeting and stabilisation policy: a survey. Journal of Economic Surveys 23(5): 974–997) survey: optimal monetary policy; the zero lower bound; financial frictions and transition costs of adopting a PT regime. Ambler's conclusion that PT improves social welfare in New Keynesian models is fairly robust, but we note an interesting split in the literature: PT consistently outperforms IT in models where policymakers commit to simple Taylor‐type rules, but results in favour of PT when policymakers minimise loss functions are overturned with small deviations from the baseline model. Since the beneficial effects of PT appear to hang on the joint assumption that agents are rational and the economy New Keynesian, we discuss survey and experimental evidence on rational expectations and the applied macro literature on the empirical performance of New Keynesian models. Overall, the evidence is not clear‐cut, but we note that New Keynesian models can pass formal statistical tests against macro data and that models with rational expectations outperform those with behavioural expectations (i.e. heuristics) in direct statistical tests. We therefore argue that policymakers should continue to pay attention to PT.     

Talking Business: An Actor‐Centred Analysis of Business Agendas for Local Economic Development

Much of the recent literature about local governance of Britain’s cities has examined the power of a newly evolving ‘business elite’. However, in trying to understand changing governance forms, these analyses have generally lacked sensitivity to the role of actors (businesspeople) and their representative organizations. Analytical categories drawn from social movement theory (SMT) are introduced to develop a more actor‐centred approach to the role of business interests in urban management. While not attempting to claim that business represents a social movement within Britain’s cities, it does illuminate how effectively or otherwise businesspeople develop an identity based around their representative organizations and specific business agendas, define non‐business actors as opponents, and deploy and implement the agendas they create. We then use these SMT categories to examine the creation of business agendas in three English towns – Barnsley, Mansfield and Accrington.     

ECONOMETRICS FOR GRUMBLERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE LITERATURE ON CROSS‐COUNTRY GROWTH EMPIRICS

Abstract Since the seminal contribution of N. Gregory Mankiw, David Romer and David N. Weil in 1992 the growth empirics literature has used increasingly sophisticated methods to select relevant growth determinants in estimating cross‐section growth regressions. The vast majority of empirical approaches, however, limit cross‐country heterogeneity in production technology to the specification of total factor productivity, the ‘measure of our ignorance’. In this survey, we present two general empirical frameworks for cross‐country growth and productivity analysis and demonstrate that they encompass the various approaches in the growth empirics literature of the past two decades. We then develop our central argument, that cross‐country heterogeneity in the impact of observables and unobservables on output as well as the time‐series properties of the data are important for reliable empirical analysis.     

THE DEBATE ABOUT THE REVIVED BRETTON‐WOODS REGIME: A SURVEY AND EXTENSION OF THE LITERATURE

This paper surveys the literature dealing with the thesis put forward by Dooley, Folkerts‐Landau and Garber (DFG) that the present constellation of global exchange‐rate arrangements constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods regime. DFG also argue that the revived regime will be sustainable, despite its large global imbalances. While much of the literature generated by DFG's thesis points to specific differences between the earlier regime and revived regime that render the latter unstable, we argue that an underlying similarity between the two regimes renders the revived regime unstable. Specifically, to the extent that the present system constitutes a revived Bretton‐Woods system, it is vulnerable to the same set of destabilizing forces – including asset‐price bubbles and global financial crises – that marked the latter years of the earlier regime, leading to its breakdown. We extend the Markov switching model to examine the relation between global liquidity and commodity prices. We find an evidence of commodity‐price bubbles in both the latter stages of the earlier Bretton‐Woods regime and the revived regime.     

水稻工厂育苗机械插秧技术经济分析

推广水稻工厂化育苗与机械化插秧技术是否可行进行了分析,提出了在应用该项技术过程中应注意的问题,解决问题的方法,对推广该技术增加收入、节省成本的效果进行了量化分析。     

End‐of‐pipe or cleaner production? An empirical comparison of environmental innovation decisions across OECD countries

While both fundamental types of abatement measure mitigate the adverse environmental impacts of production, cleaner production technologies are frequently more advantageous than end‐of‐pipe technologies for environmental and economic reasons. This paper analyzes a variety of factors that might enhance firms' propensity to implement cleaner production technologies instead of end‐of‐pipe technologies. On the basis of a unique facility‐level data set derived from a recent OECD survey, we find a clear dominance of cleaner production in seven OECD countries: 76.8% of the facilities report that they invest predominantly in cleaner production technologies, above all in new production processes, but not so much in new products. Based on a discrete choice model, our estimation results indicate that regulatory measures and the stringency of environmental policies are more important for end‐of‐pipe technologies, while cost savings, general management systems and specific environmental management tools tend to favor clean production. We conclude that improvements towards cleaner production may be reached by the continuous development and wider diffusion of these management tools. Improvements may also be stimulated by widening the cost gap between the two types of technology, for instance by additionally charging for waste and energy use. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Non‐parametric Analysis of Gap Times for Multiple Event Data: An Overview

Multiple event data are frequently encountered in medical follow‐up, engineering and other applications when the multiple events are considered as the major outcomes. They may be repetitions of the same event (recurrent events) or may be events of different nature. Times between successive events (gap times) are often of direct interest in these applications. The stochastic‐ordering structure and within‐subject dependence of multiple events generate statistical challenges for analysing such data, including induced dependent censoring and non‐identifiability of marginal distributions. This paper provides an overview of a class of existing non‐parametric estimation methods for gap time distributions for various types of multiple event data, where sampling bias from induced dependent censoring is effectively adjusted. We discuss the statistical issues in gap time analysis, describe the estimation procedures and illustrate the methods with a comparative simulation study and a real application to an AIDS clinical trial. A comprehensive understanding of challenges and available methods for non‐parametric analysis can be useful because there is no existing standard approach to identifying an appropriate gap time method that can be used to address research question of interest. The methods discussed in this review would allow practitioners to effectively handle a variety of real‐world multiple event data.     

The Network‐Performance Relationship in Knowledge‐Intensive Contexts—A Meta‐Analysis and Cross‐Level Comparison

This study examines the generalizability of the network‐performance relationship across individual and group levels, focusing on knowledge‐intensive contexts. Drawing on a meta‐analytical approach, we synthesize the results of 102 empirical studies to test whether network characteristics such as centrality, brokerage, and tie strength similarly influence the job performance of individuals and groups. Results show that while there are no differences in the direction of the network‐performance relationship across levels, there are substantial differences in magnitude. Individual performance profits more strongly from a high number of direct connections, whereas groups reap higher benefits from brokerage positions. Additional analyses reveal that the network measurement method, tie content, and performance criteria function as moderators of the network performance relationship, but their influence is consistent neither across network characteristics nor across levels. By meta‐analytically comparing and contrasting the network‐performance relationship for individuals and groups, we contribute to multilevel research on networks and organizations. Particularly, we move toward the development of a multilevel homology theory of networks. Implications for theory, practice, and future research are discussed. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Do Boards of Directors Influence Corporate Sustainable Development? An Attention‐Based Analysis

Following the attention‐based view of the firm (ABV), boards of directors’ link to corporate sustainable development (CSD) could be dependent upon certain attention structures: valuation of environmental stimuli, rules of the game and the players. Studying a sample of large Australian firms, the findings indicate that the proposed attention‐directing structures do appear to be linked to CSD in a manner consistent with the ABV. Specifically, creating awareness through scanning efforts links boards to CSD. Stakeholder debate, as a boardroom rule, is also significantly associated with CSD. Furthermore, as a so‐called ‘player’ on the board, women directors have a moderating effect on the relationships between environmental scanning, stakeholder debate and CSD. The findings are discussed along with limitations and directions for future research. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

教育人力资本与区域经济增长的关系研究

目前国内关于人力资本对经济增长作用机制的研究,很少考虑空间依赖性引起的区域间的相互影响。文章引入空间变量,利用卢卡斯内生经济增长函数,构建空间面板回归模型,对1990-2006年我国30个省市自治区教育人力资本与区域经济增长之间可能存在的空间关系进行了实证研究,验证了空间依赖性的存在,证实了教育人力资本对区域经济增长具有推动作用,且空间面板回归模型较传统面板回归模型更好地诠释了教育人力资本与区域经济增长之间的关系。     

国际环境合作的经济学分析

本文利用现代经济学理论与方法,构筑了一个分析国际环境合作问题的经济学框架。分析的中心是建立一个静态模型来寻求作为一个联盟形态的国际环境合作的内部和外部稳定性条件,主要结论是稳定的国际环境合作是由模型给定的参数内生地决定的。与当前大多数研究的一个重要不同是,我们的模型没有采用通常的减少污染排放这一分析参数,而是选用了更为直接的污染排放量这一指标。在运用联盟理论对两类情形即不合作和完全合作进行模型化处理的基础上,本文导出了联盟成员国与非成员国福利水平和污染排放量的若干命题,并建立起国际环境合作稳定性的条件。     

传统经济增长方式导致环境危机的经济学分析

环境资源是一种公共资源,传统经济增长方式带来了严重的环境污染问题,环境问题严重制约着我国经济增长和发展,因此传统的数量型经济增长方式已难以为继,转变现有的经济增长方式势在必行。从稀缺、欲望、市场机制和资源配置等经济学的重要范畴及其相互关系分析它们与资源环境危机之间的必然逻辑关系,结果表明传统经济学在基础层面上不适合指导人们的经济活动,应当建立新的经济学,把环境资源的稀缺性引入经济系统中,使其逐渐成为经济系统的内生变量,以拓宽经济学的研究视野。