Bubbles,Froth and Facts: Another Look at the Masters Hypothesis in Commodity Futures Markets

The Masters Hypothesis suggests that long‐only index funds were the main cause of a massive increase in commodity prices in 2007–2008 and 2011–2012. Central to the Masters Hypothesis are three basic tenets: (i) long‐only commodity index funds were directly responsible for driving futures prices higher; (ii) the deviations from fundamental value were economically very large; (iii) the impact was pervasive across commodity futures markets. There has been a great deal of empirical research on the Masters Hypothesis and commodity market bubbles. However, surprisingly few studies have found evidence that directly support the main tenets of the Masters Hypothesis. Some have attributed the lack of supporting evidence to the low‐power of time‐series tests, market efficiency issues and a lack of conditioning variables within models. In this paper, we address each of these issues using updated data and new empirical approaches. Still, price behaviour consistent with the Masters Hypothesis is surprisingly difficult to find in the data. This is an important finding given the on‐going policy debate and regulations proposed or being implemented to limit speculative positions in these markets.     

Futures Markets and Spot Price Volatility: A Case Study

Futures markets, where they exist, can play a crucial role in determining the storage decision in the underlying spot (physical) market. The futures market acts as a conduit for market information and is a gatherer of agents' expectations about the future prospects for the spot market. As such, it is able to provide both price insurance and price discovery roles, the latter of which generates information for spot market traders and allows them to make rational storage decisions. If this were to be the case, then the efficiency of storage is improved which can potentially lead to a reduction in the volatility of spot prices over the marketing season. The existing literature is ambiguous as to whether futures markets can help spot markets price more efficiently. This paper seeks to examine whether this is the case in the British maincrop potato market by evaluating the volatility of spot prices over the period 1969–96 in a “before-after” analysis of the impact of the introduction of futures trading in 1980. The results suggest that the introduction of the futures market has led to a reduction in price volatility, despite some problems in the operation of the futures market itself.     

Incomplete Credit Markets and Commodity Marketing Behaviour

We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns.     

Did Futures Markets Stabilise US Grain Prices?

Though economists are divided over whether, in practice, futures markets reduce spot price volatility, observers of nascent nineteenth century US futures markets essentially praised the stabilising effects of this financial innovation. Indeed, such praise is understandable, particularly if, as the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) and others assert, “violent” spot price fluctuations were common prior to, but not after, the 1870s; the same decade that grain trade historians typically associate with the birth of the modern futures contract. And whereas these events may be unrelated, the claim is intriguing because it requires that nineteenth century futures prices fulfil their price discovery function, a property that many modern futures markets do not possess. This paper explores what role, if any, the advent of futures trading may have had on spot price volatility. I corroborate the CBOT's assertion regarding diminished spot price volatility around the 1870s and show that early futures prices did indeed fulfil their price discovery function. Moreover, I address two alternative hypotheses that relate the decline in spot price volatility to the Civil War. Ultimately, I maintain that the evolution of futures markets is the principal proximate reason why commodity spot price volatility diminished.     

Assessing the Vulnerability to Price Spikes in Agricultural Commodity Markets

We examine empirically the predictability of conditions associated with a higher probability of a price spike in agricultural commodity markets. We find that the forward spread is the most significant indicator of probable price jumps in maize, wheat and soybeans futures markets, a result which is in line with the ‘Theory of Storage’. We additionally show that some option-implied variables add significant predictive power when added to the more standard information variable set. Overall, the estimated probabilities of large price increases from our probit models exhibit significant correlations with historical sudden market upheavals in agricultural markets.     

Optimal Commodity Promotion when Downstream Markets are Imperfectly Competitive

We investigate the optimal collection and expenditure of funds for agricultural commodity promotion in markets where the processing and distribution sectors may exhibit oligopoly and/or oligopsony power. The conditions that characterize optimal advertising intensity under perfect competition for funds generated from either per-unit or lump-sum taxes do not, in general, hold when marketing is imperfectly competitive. Simulation analyses show that imperfect competition always reduces farmers' optimal advertising expenditure and that an imperfectly competitive marketing sector may capture half or more of the benefits from the funds that are expended.     

A Marketing Approach to Commodity Futures Exchanges: A Case Study of the Dutch Hog Industry

This paper proposes a marketing strategic approach to commodity futures exchanges to optimise the (hedging) services offered. First, the environment of commodity futures exchanges is examined. Second, the threats and opportunities of commodity futures exchanges are analysed. Our analysis demonstrates that market orientation is an important element in the market strategies of commodity futures exchanges. Our market strategic framework is applied to the Dutch hog futures market. It is concluded that market penetration is an appropriate strategy. Consequently, to identify the variables that distinguish between farmers who initiate futures positions and farmers who do not, we conducted a discriminant analysis on data gathered from 418 Dutch hog farmers. The discriminant analysis shows that latent variables, such as farmers' perceived performance, farmers' reference price and farmers' market orientation, are important discriminating variables. Furthermore, farmers' cash market behaviour (in terms of the frequency of selling in the spot market) is an important discriminating variable as well. The usefulness of these results as input for a penetration policy is demonstrated.     

Volatility Effects of Index Trading and Spillovers on US Agricultural Futures Markets: A Multivariate GARCH Approach

We examine the effects of speculation in the form of index trading on contemporaneous returns and volatility on corn, soybeans and wheat futures markets on the Chicago Board of Trade using multivariate generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models and weekly data for 2006–2014. We also assess spillovers. Results are threefold. First, contemporaneous effects of index trading on own returns are positive and inelastic, and they are partially mitigated in the following week. Second, volatility depends positively on own past volatility, and volatility spillovers are limited. Third, index trading reduces own volatility.     

Opportunities and Pitfalls of International Futures Markets Trading by Developing Countries

Profitable direct and cross hedging opportunities exist for Zaire coffee hedgers, and some periods may offer significantly superior opportunities. External events and internal policy changes contributed to instability of Zaire hedge ratios. The importance of internal economic and financial changes must be considered to supplement international coffee market information. Other Third World Countries should consider the potential of using international commodities and financials futures markets for information and risk management in the trade of raw materials but be aware of changes in market and financial risks relative to their domestic situation.     

New Futures Markets in Agricultural Production Rights: Possibilities and Constraints for the British and Dutch Milk Quota Markets

Farms are increasingly being affected by policies that involve production rights. Because of fluctuations in the prices of these rights in the spot market, farmers face a price risk. Establishing a futures market might enable them to hedge against this price risk. Rights futures have some features that differ from those of traditional commodity futures. This makes them an effective and efficient tool for managing price risk. The implications of these findings will be illustrated for milk quotas in the United Kingdom and The Netherlands. Prior conditions which might make a futures market for milk quotas successful in both countries will be deduced.     

New Evidence on the Impact of Index Funds in U.S. Grain Futures Markets

Commodity index trader position data are examined for the years prior to the 2007–08 commodity price increase. New data from 2004 to 2005 show that a large increase in commodity index positions occurred in select grain futures markets. However, the increased index participation took place well in advance of the 2007–08 boom in prices. Granger causality tests fail to find any causal link between commodity index activity and grain futures prices. Furthermore, there is little evidence of an index‐induced price bubble using long‐horizon regressions. Nous avons analysé les données sur les positions des opérateurs de marché au cours des années qui ont précédé la hausse des prix des denrées en 2007–08. Selon de nouvelles données pour la période 2004–05, une hausse substantielle des positions liées à l’indice des denrées est survenue sur des marchés de grain à terme sélectionnés. Toutefois, cette hausse des positions est survenue bien avant la montrée en flèche des cours en 2007–08. Le test de causalité de Granger n’a pas permis d’établir l’existence d’un lien de causalité entre l’activité liée à l’indice des denrées et les cours à terme des grains. De plus, les régressions pour processus à mémoire longue ne permettent pas de conclure à l’existence d’une bulle des prix induite par l’indice.     

Volatility Forecasting and Time‐varying Variance Risk Premiums in Grains Commodity Markets

In this paper we examine empirically the predictive power of model‐free option‐implied variance and skewness in wheat, maize and soybeans derivative markets. We find that option‐implied risk‐neutral variance outperforms historical variance as a predictor of future realised variance for these three commodities. In addition, we find that risk‐neutral option‐implied skewness significantly improves variance forecasting when added in the information variable set. Variance risk premia add significant predictive power when included as an additional factor for predicting future commodity returns.     

Can Futures and Options Markets Hold the Milk Price Safety Net? Policy Conflicts and Market Failures in Dairy Hedging

U.S. Department of Agriculture's Dairy Options Pilot Program promoted hedging by producers, and was a test case for similar programs in other agricultural industries. Rapidly shifting milk pricing policies impeded quantitative hedging evaluations while the program was active. Hedging appears capable of reducing price variance by 50–60% in most regions, and favors large, sophisticated producers in heavy cheese manufacturing regions. Forward contracting or price insurance products may offer lower transaction costs and attract more small-scale producers. Ballooning milk deficiency payments and milk's prominent role in trade-distorting payments suggest an ongoing need to promote private price risk management tools.     

A Note on Former Soviet Bloc Countries

It is argued that while it is difficult to be critical of GKI, because the picture painted of the former Soviet bloc countries is so broad, the treatment is not sufficiently detailed to be analytically illuminating. Four important weaknesses are identified. The first is the problematic analogy of private plot agriculture on the former state and collective farms with minifundia in Latin America, and the consequent analogy of collective farms with latifundia. The second is the argument that private plot farming was involuting in a Geertzian sense. Thirdly, the GKI redistributive land reform agenda for Russia is questioned and a case is made for privately owned and managed large farms. Finally, GKI are criticized for failing to take account of the limited rural labour supply in Russia.