我国当前的通货膨胀压力分析

近年来，我国一般物价水平持续上涨，出现通货膨胀的迹象。文章就这一现象进行了通货膨胀的理论分析，对我国目前所面临的各个方面的通货膨胀压力进行了探讨，阐述了我国当前通货膨胀压力的成因，并提出了一系列应对通货膨胀压力的对策。     

通货膨胀问题两议

通货膨胀问题两议丹秋一、“通货膨胀”定义辩析何谓通货膨胀？理论界对此问题看法大不相同。概括起来，主要有以下两种观点：第一种看法是：通货膨胀是指一般物价水平的持续上升。具体说，是指消费物价指数年上涨持续在２．５％以上。西方许多经济学家持有这种看法。近年...     

要区分通货膨胀率与物价上涨率

迄今为止,我国在统计上,并没有把由于通货膨胀引起的物价水平上涨与由于价格结构性调整及其他原因而引起的物价水平上涨区分开来,而是把通货膨胀率等同于年(或月)的物价上涨率,致使过高地估计了我国的通货膨胀情况。这既不利于我们准确地认识在我国发生的通货膨胀实际情况,也不利于对症下药,有效地治理和抑制通货膨胀。同时,还会对改革带来负面的影响。为此,建议在经济体制转轨时期     

我国新一轮通货膨胀的成因及对策研究

近年来,我国一般物价水平持续上涨,出现通货膨胀的迹象,特别是2011年以来,通货膨胀压力日益加大,本文以我国新一轮通货膨胀为研究主题,对目前所面临的各个方面的通货膨胀压力进行了探讨,阐述了我国当前通货膨胀压力的成因,并提出了一系列应对通货膨胀压力的对策。     

谈“过渡时期”我国的通货膨胀问题

通货膨胀（inftation)在传统西方经济学中被诠释为价格持续上涨的过程，也即货币价值持续下降的过程。需要指出的是，这里的价格水平上涨指的是一般物价水平的上涨，即所有的商品和劳务交易的价格总额的加权平均数。致于引起通货膨胀的原因，西方经济学一般归结为两个：需求拉上和成本推进，前者指一般物价水平上涨是由于商品市场上过度需求拉上而引起的，两都都有精美的模型加以描述和阐释。在西方经济学的分析中，通货膨胀和失业向来是密切相关的。著名的“菲利浦斯”曲线解释了通货膨胀和失业一荣一损，相互替代的关系，并一度是凯恩斯主义治理经济的理论依据。     

2012年通货膨胀预期分析及货币政策选择

2011年我国的CPI经历了高速上涨,我国采取了紧缩性的货币政策来应对物价水平的上涨。2012年我国的CPI将呈现何种走势、我国的货币政策应该何去何从成为大家关注的焦点。一2012年通货膨胀的原因分析由于国内外环境的不断变化,2012年诱发通货膨胀的原因主要有四个。     

试论我国九十年代以来的通货膨胀

通货膨胀是一种货币现象，是流通中的实际货币量超过社会可供商品与劳务的货币总需要量，导致货币贬值，引起一般物价水平持续上涨．正如马克思所说的：“价格的上涨不过是流通过程强制价值符号去等于它们代替流通的金量而产生的反应”，“因为随着价值符号的总数的增加每一符号所代表的金量就按同一比例减少．”通货膨胀这种货币现象主要表现为纸币流通量过多，纸币贬值和物价水平上涨，它是市场总需求超过市场总供给的必然产物，它直接影响到国象经济的健康发展，不利于人民生活水平的提高和社会的稳定．下面就我国九十年代以来的通货膨胀…     

供大于求制约物价大幅上涨——2004年价格总水平走势再判断

物价水平快速回升，是2003年经济运行最显著的特征之一。2004年物价涨幅有多高、近期快速上涨的物价水平会否带来新的经济过热和通货膨胀等是大家关注的焦点。影响2004年价格走势的因素是多方面的：农副产品涨价和电力、交通等价格上涨是推动物价上行的主要因素，而服务价格上     

谈“过渡时朝”我国的通货膨胀问题

谈“过渡时朝”我国的通货膨胀问题杨燕青，邹春勇（复旦大学经济系）通货膨胀（ｉｎｆｔａｔｉｏｎ）在传统西方经济学中被诠释为价格持续上涨的过程，也即货币价值持续下降的过程。需要指出的是，这旦的价技水平上涨指的是一般物价水平的上涨，即所有的商品和劳力交易的...     

试论预期性通货膨胀

通货膨胀是一种遍及当代世界的经济现象。在战后各国的经济发展过程中,几乎都面临着物价水平长期上升这一严峻的现实问题的挑战。作为一个发展中的大国,我们当然也不可能完全避免这种情况。近些年来,随着我国价格改革的全面展开和商品经济活力的增强,物价水平的向上运动已经引起社会各阶层的广泛关注,亦开始在广大群众心中产生了通货膨胀心理。物价水平仍将上升的预期反过来又会影响人们的行为方式,导致各种成本的提高和社会需求的全面扩张,从而成为通货膨胀的一种新动因。经济学范畴中的预期,简要地说就是人们根据自己既有的经验以及可利用的信息对某经济变量的近期变动趋势所作的估计。当参与市场活动的个体事前估计这类变量(如价格。     

Silver fetters? The rise and fall of the Chinese price level 1928–34

We show how the silver standard transmitted world silver price fluctuations into China and made the Chinese price level closely linked to the world silver price. Inflation was transmitted between 1929 and 1931 when the world silver price was falling; while deflation was transmitted during 1932 and 1934 when the world silver price was rising. Using micro-level evidence and counterfactual simulations, we show that the exchange rate was the main shock transmission channel, and silver stocks played an insignificant role.     

Money,inflation, and output growth: Does the aggregate demand-aggregate supply model explain the international evidence?

Money, Inflation, and Output Growth: Does the Aggregate Demand-Aggregate Supply Model Explain the International Evidence? - Using annual post-war data for 32 countries, it is shown that output and the price level are positively related along the aggregate supply and negatively related along the aggregate demand curve. This implies that the negative correlation between inflation and growth simply means that the price level has been countercyclical as aggregate supply shocks domi-nated aggregate demand shocks. It is also shown that money growth has positive and permanent effects on inflation, but may affect output only in the short run: in the long run, money is probably neutral.     

中国的通货膨胀是输入性的吗?——物价波动国际传导路径的实证研究

通货膨胀是当前中国经济的突出现象,对通货膨胀是否由国际输入存在争议。通过对2005年7月至2011年3月间的宏观经济数据分析表明,中国的物价总体上受到美国、欧盟的影响,并存在三条传导路径：价格传导、货币供给传导、总供求传导。因此遏制通胀不能仅靠国内的紧缩性货币政策,还要注意防范国际通货膨胀的输入性影响。政策建议包括调整优化产业结构,调节总供求,以及控制贸易规模和结构。     

资产价格波动差异:由股市与房价观察

我国股票市场和住宅市场的市盈率与货币幻觉代理变量通货膨胀率、名义利率呈现明显的反向关系,即在高通胀时,市场被低估;在低通胀时,市场被高估。通货膨胀通过货币幻觉,影响资产估值高低。股市的市盈率波动幅度远大于住宅市场,股票价格波动主要来自估值倍数变化;而住宅的估值倍数波动小,房价波动更多地受到了估值倍数与租金变化的综合影响。     

Monetary targeting for price stability in Bangladesh: How stable is its money demand function and the linkage between money supply growth and inflation?

Since the mid-1980s Bangladesh has implemented a loose form of monetary targeting under two exchange-rate régimes: a pegged system until May 2003 and a ‘managed floating’ exchange-rate system. Under both régimes, broad money has been used as an intermediate target to maintain price stability, which implies as the ultimate goal a relatively low and stable rate of inflation. Inflation in this country has, however, remained moderately high and volatile, especially during the 1970s under the pegged exchange-rate system. With the apparent ineffectiveness of the monetary-targeting system in achieving price stability, even following the 2003 ‘managed float’ of the currency, there has been some suggestion that it should be replaced by, say, inflation targeting. This paper forms an element of a fuller study of the issue. It investigates the behaviour of broad money demand in Bangladesh using annual data over the period 1973–2008. Empirical results suggest that an open-economy broad money demand function has remained stable in Bangladesh since the early 2000s. Empirical results also suggest the existence of a causal relationship between money supply growth and inflation. The paper concludes that, although monetary targeting remains appropriate for Bangladesh, its implementation can be made more effective in stabilising the price level if the Bangladesh Bank enhances its control over the money supply by eschewing nominal exchange-rate stabilisation through foreign exchange market interventions.     

Inflation in developing Asia

Inflation emerged as the single biggest macroeconomic challenge confronting developing Asia during 2007–2008, although inflationary pressures have abated since the second half of 2008 due to the global crisis. This paper empirically examines the relative importance of different sources of inflation in developing Asia. In particular, it tests the widely held view that the region's inflationary surge during 2007–2008 was primarily the result of external price factors such as oil and food shocks. Our central empirical result is that, contrary to popular misconception, Asia's inflation is largely homegrown and has arisen due to excess aggregate demand and inflationary expectations, rather than external price shocks. This suggests monetary policy will remain a powerful tool in fighting inflation in Asia, as well as in defusing the risks of deflation.     

政府管制、油价下跌与中国产业部门价格水平变动研究——基于改进的投入产出价格影响模型

运用改进的投入产出价格影响模型,研究在是否存在政府管制的情况下,石油价格变动对我国居民消费价格指数、批发物价指数、物价总水平以及其他41个行业部门商品价格指数的影响。研究表明：①各类价格指数受石油价格下跌影响大小排名为：批发物价指数>物价总水平>居民消费物价指数;②第二产业受石油价格下跌影响程度最大,第一产业和第三产业所受影响相对较小;③政府管制下的价格传导效应小于无政府管制下价格传导效应。     

医疗服务市场的高价格形成机制——一个基于信息扩散的解释框架

本文指出,一个自由的医疗服务市场会导致过高的价格水平,其原因在于,医疗服务的价格变化信息在患者之间扩散是一个缓慢的时间过程,致使医院的医疗服务需求对价格变化不敏感,从而降低了医疗服务市场的竞争性。本文同时指出,政府只要能够改变医疗服务价格信息的扩散机制,就能够建立一个以市场机制为基础的高效率的医疗卫生体制。     

Inflation Expectations and Inflation Uncertainty in the Eurozone: Evidence from Survey Data

This paper uses the European Commission’s Consumer Survey to assess whether inflation expectations have converged and whether inflation uncertainty has diminished following the introduction of the euro in Europe. Consumers’ responses to the survey suggest that inflation expectations depend more on past national inflation rates than on the ECB’s anchor for price stability. Inflation expectations do not converge significantly faster than actual inflation rates. Regarding inflation uncertainty, the data indicate a relationship with country size following the introduction of the euro. This suggests that within EMU, inflation uncertainty may increase in countries that have a smaller influence on ECB policy. JEL no.  D84, E31, E58     

基于Markov区制转移模型的财政政策通胀效应检验

价格水平如何决定以及通货膨胀如何治理历来都是经济学家和政府决策部门关心的问题,新近提出的价格水平决定的财政理论强调财政政策变动对价格水平的影响。基于该理论,选取1998-2012年间国债发行和价格水平的季度数据,采取马尔科夫区制转移模型从一个侧面对我国财政政策的通货膨胀效应进行了实证检验,研究发现,积极财政政策对价格水平的影响并不一致,2008年第4季度之前的大部分时间里,积极财政政策所引致的通胀风险并不显著,但2008年之后,积极财政政策则具有显著通胀效应。因此,在治理通货膨胀的政策选择上,改善当前的财政状况,合理地运用财政政策可能是一个更好的选择。