中产阶级才应是购房的主力军

2010年一开年,针对中国高房价这一长期顽症,从官方到民间,遏制房价过快上涨的呼声可以说此起彼伏,特别是国家政府更是密集出台了一系列涉及税收、金融、土地等直指高房价的调控政策,最为引人瞩目的是要进一步加大对政策性住房的建设。此举意味着,今后全国各地都将大幅度提高政策性住房土地供     

由房地产开发成本及受益者解析政府责任

作者针对近期我国房价快速上涨、房地产商及商品房主导市场、住房投机愈演愈烈、中低收入阶层住房困难等问题,对北京的房地产市场进行了调查研究。文中重点分析了住房开发建设的运作成本,从而揭示了房价上涨的幕前幕后受益者。同时对部分国家和地区成功的住房保障制度及政策进行了客观的分析,旨在从中找出我国城市高房价的根源及完善住房保障制度的对策。本文以调查和分析为依据,提出了强化政府责任、完善住房保障制度的个人看法和对策建议。     

应关注低收入城市高房价问题——甘肃省兰州市个案分析

2007年“两会”期间,高房价再次引起各方的普遍关注。但是,更多的代表关注的是像北京、上海、广州、深圳等发达城市的高房价问题,中小城市和西部省会城市的房价没有引起过多的注意。本文以甘肃省兰州市为个案,在深入分析2004年以来兰州市房价走势,比较同类城市房价的基础上,认为目前兰州市的房价已经超过的居民承受能力,高房价问题不但不利于“民生”,而且从长期来看,低收入与高房价的不匹配使住房消费挤出了其他消费,不利于城市经济的长期发展。2007年房地产市场政策的着力点应该是如何让地方政府真正落实宏观调控政策,重点改善住房结构和实施廉价房廉租房工程建设,真正解决低收入人群“居无其所”的问题。     

住房制度变迁、市场扭曲与高房价

初步探讨了我国双重住房供给体系及其相互影响机制。住房制度变迁中,住房福利供给制度导致的低租金、公房低价出售、集团购买再分配等因素对商品住房需求、价格形成产生较大影响,其形成的需求累积效应和财富效应扭曲了市场,进而扭曲了房价。高房价现象背后的深层原因与住房制度安排和政策取向密切相关。在进一步的改革中,住宅供给的商品性和社会保障性,是中国住房制度及配套改革要处理好的重要问题。     

中国高房价下的宏观调控对策分析

近年来,中国房地产市场经历了由低迷到亢奋的非理性发展过程,与人民生活密切相关的居住性住房房价持续居高不下.对不合理的高房价的治理,简单的只靠政府调控或只靠市场自发调节是不行的,单纯用经济学的理论去分析也是不完全的.本文结合政府关于房地产业出台的政策,指出解决高房价问题需要将“房”与“价”分别对待,“价”的问题留给市场自发调节,政府需对普通住房房价进行一定控制,而政府宏观调控的真正对象是“房”,特别是普通住房;主要方向是确保保障性住房的供给     

人口老龄化与房价的区域差异研究——基于面板协整模型的实证分析

本文通过结构性视角,由面板协整检验证明了人口老龄化对房价波动存在长期影响,继以面板误差修正模型讨论了人口结构影响房价波动的区域差别、原因及政策建议。实证结果显示:储蓄、住房需求多元化和家庭结构是造成老年人群推动房价上涨的主要原因,但未来人口老龄化能否引起房价的长期下降,取决于青年人群对住房需求的实现能力;人口老龄化对房价的影响存在区域差异,预示着部分区域房价或已脱离实际面、青年人群的购买力与高房价间矛盾日蹙。从减缓人口老龄化对我国房地产乃至社会经济发展可能带来冲击的角度来看,应及早以前瞻性政策应对。     

住宅房地产租赁融资——年轻购房者的新选择

1998年以来,我国住宅市场化之所以飞速发展,住房按揭功不可没,而从消费形态上看,透支现象突出,大量“房奴”出现,部分年轻人把住房按揭政策用过了头。但是要立刻让其由买转租,又谈何容易!从企业角度分析,开发商资金紧张,同时项目销售速度放缓。从资源效用层面考虑,近几年住房空置率一直居高不下,社会资源浪费严重。房地产市场矛盾重重,亟待革故布新。     

我国房地产市场治理的新思路

虽然国家对房地产调控的多项政策,已有初步成果,但并没有从根本上解决我国房价过高的问题,尤其是众多政策中的限购政策一直以来颇受争议,此次在两会期间再次有学者对此提出反对,的确此类强制性措施职能短时间的抑制房价,但并不能形成一个长效机制,一旦政策放松房价又将大幅上升。本文正基于此,试图通过对我国高房价的原因分析,并结合我国国情,提出一种解决我国高房价问题的途径,这种措施想要实现的目标是"商品房完全商品化,土地完全非商品化,实现商品房与土地间产权上的彻底分离"。     

我国房地产市场治理的新思路

虽然国家对房地产调控的多项政策,已有初步成果,但并没有从根本上解决我国房价过高的问题,尤其是众多政策中的限购政策一直以来颇受争议,此次在两会期间再次有学者对此提出反对,的确此类强制性措施职能短时间的抑制房价,但并不能形成一个长效机制,一旦政策放松房价又将大幅上升。本文正基于此,试图通过对我国高房价的原因分析,并结合我国国情,提出一种解决我国高房价问题的途径,这种措施想要实现的目标是"商品房完全商品化,土地完全非商品化,实现商品房与土地间产权上的彻底分离"。     

建立我国公共住房制度的财税政策研究

在公有制土地上建设的住房产品作为具有外部性的混合公共产品,属于广义的财政范畴,需要公共政策的干预。我国房地产领域现行财税制度对公共住房制度建设支持力度严重不足,导致住房产品过度市场化,普通商品房市场价格飞涨。这是公共决策行为严重失误的必然结果。解决高房价问题的关键在于解决中低收入阶层的住房困难问题,其根本解决之道在于市场机制之外正确的公共政策干预。必须改革我国现行财政分配制度,建立适应我国房地产业健康发展的财税制度,促进房地产业健康可持续性发展。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.