从全球市场看我国钢铁产业的生命周期判定及发展对策

科学、准确地识别我国钢铁产业所处的生命周期阶段,是制定合理、有效的产业政策的前提与基础。本文以产业生命周期理论为基础,选取我国1995年~2015年钢材产量和钢材表观消费量为实证研究对象,采用三和值法和龚伯兹模型对我国钢铁产业生命周期阶段进行实证研究。实证结果显示,1995年~2003年钢材产量和表观消费量处于导入期或成长前期,2004年~2015年处于成长后期,钢材产量和表观消费量的发展趋势明显不同,钢材产量2004年~2030年一直处于成长后期,而表观消费量2004年~2020年处于成长后期,2020年~2030年处于成熟前期。按现有的发展趋势,到2043年前后中国钢材产量将达到极值17.14846亿吨。中国钢材生产有过快增长的发展趋势,需要进行调整。     

下半年我国石油供应仍偏紧

今年上半年，我国石油表观消费量增速呈大幅下降趋势。但专家指出，石油实际消费量增速大大高于表观消费量增速，下半年我国石油市场供应仍将呈现偏紧状态。     

我国乙二醛的生产和应用

介绍我国乙二醛的生产状况和应用市场，预测２００３年我国乙二醛的表观消费量将达２０ｋｔ。     

谁阻碍不锈钢市场前进？

我国的不锈钢业起步较晚，但生产和消费发展都极为迅速。过去的十年中，我国的不锈钢材消费量年平均增长率达到29％，1990年时的消费量为26万吨，到2003年增至420万吨。但从今年开始我国的不锈钢需求放慢，上半年不锈钢消费量为208．9万吨，去年同期为207．5万吨，同比仅增长0．66％，下半年市场需求没有太大变动，今年全年的不锈钢表观消费量相较去年的增长率不会有大的变化。需求放慢，但产能却在急速扩张。太钢的50万吨冷轧扩展项目、宁波宝新的40万吨冷轧扩建项目、青     

柴油轿车挑战炼油

柴油和汽 油一样都是汽 车的重要燃料, 但在我国柴油 的消费量远远 大于汽油,这是 因为柴油的使 用领域比汽油 广阔得多。除汽车外,拖拉机、铁路机车,船舶、发电机组、工矿机具等都使用柴油。柴油机的热效率高、油耗低,因而也是汽车发动机的发展方向。     

新形势下天然气市场发展策略研究

在国家环保高压和大气污染治理政策下,全国工业煤改气、北方清洁采暖和农村煤改气工程持续推进。多重因素影响下,2018年我国天然气消费量再次实现爆发式增长,表观消费量2810亿立方米,绝对消费量2740亿立方米,增量达到410亿立方米,高于2017年的350亿立方米,同比增速17.6%,超过2017年的同比增长水平,再次突破刷新历年增量新高。2018年全国能源消费总量约为45.5亿吨标煤,天然气占能源消费总量8.0%,较2017年增长0.9%。     

美国汽油期货价格发现功能实证研究及对我国的启示

纽约商业交易所汽油期货是美国发展较为成熟的成品油期货品种之一,其在预测未来汽油价格、指导生产经营和减少价格波动风险方面发挥着重要作用。本文采用Garbade-Silber模型等方法对纽约商业交易所汽油期货价格发现功能进行检验,结果表明:美国汽油期货与现货价格存在长期均衡关系,汽油期货价格引导现货价格,汽油期货的价格发现功能为68%。随着我国成品油定价机制市场化程度的加深以及成品油价格形成机制的不断完善,我国亟需成立成品油期货市场以平抑市场价格波动带来的风险。     

中国乙烯工业的市场分析

评述了中国近年乙烯产能和产量、消费量（表观和当量消费量），介绍了中国乙烯扩能前景和裂解原料供应，以及当前经济危机对中国乙烯工业的影响。     

经贸博览

2006年我国粗钢产量首破4亿吨；2007年我国中厚板产量将增长20％以上；我国今年钢材表观消费量将达4．92亿吨；今年铁矿石涨价9．5％；国家发改委批准八一钢铁新项目；太钢宽幅不锈钢厚板设备今年投产     

基于产业结构分解模型的我国天然气消费实证研究

本文分析了不同产业GDP数据、不同产业的天然气消费量数据后发现:我国第二产业和第三产业的产业结构没有发生明显变化的情况下,我国天然气消费结构发生了变化,这与最近几年我国天然气消费的快速增长和我国天然气消费市场所处阶段有关.分析产业结构分解模型分解出的四个驱动因素发现:第二产业和第三产业的经济增长是驱动天然气消费量增长的主因,本来应该起到抑制天然气消费量增长的能源消费强度效应在消失.特别是第二产业的能源消费强度抑制作用在2004年以后消失了,而第三产业能源消费强度效应几乎没有起到抑制作用,经济增长效应和能源消费强度效应共同促进我国天然气消费量的增长.     

对普适性生产函数模型的一些改进

普适性生产函数方法为使用横截面数据估计时,由于各地区生产函数的不同所导致的不可估算问题,提供了很好地解决办法,但其参数的估计需用差分模型,这将产生严重的缺陷.文章放宽其基本假设,得到更一般的可估计模型——异方差模型,经验证据亦表明,改进后的模型优于原有模型.     

ERP系统模型设计研究

模型设计是ERP系统的基础 ,无论在宏观上还是微观上都与整个系统密不可分 ,因此有必要对其整个的设计思想做详细的研究。在ERP功能模型设计和信息模型设计方面 ,提出设计思想 ,并在最后进行实例化分析 ,以期实现ERP模型的设计与ERP系统框架的有效集成。     

A NOTE ON NONAFFINE SOLUTIONS OF TERM STRUCTURE EQUATIONS WITH APPLICATIONS TO POWER EXCHANGES

A method based on transformations of well-known solutions of term structure equations is presented in order to incorporate Martin Barlow's spot price model for electricity into a model for future prices on electricity. The setting for the evolution of term structures is chosen in the spirit of Da Prato and Zabczyk.     

Business model risk and uncertainty factors: Toward building and maintaining profitable and sustainable business models

Business models and business model innovation—and particularly their opportunities—have been a popular topic recently, but we find the extant literature on the subject lacking. The risk and uncertainty aspect typical of business models has not been sufficiently addressed. We draw upon the existing literature and triangulate results with an extensive expert group interview to identify 28 risk and uncertainty factor groups, creating a checklist that can be used as the first step in an integrative business model risk management process for existing and new iterations. With an established process for managing and identifying risk in business models, managers can make more conscious and well-informed decisions.     

Optimal Duration of Promotion for Durable Technology Product in a Segmented Market

ABSTRACT

Firms develop segment driven promotional mix to target its potential customers selectively. As the marginal revenues from promotion decreases with time, it is important to determine the optimal stopping time of a promotional activity. In the literature, the studies carried in this domain do not consider market segmentation and assume a uniform promotional mix. In this study, alternative decision models are developed to determine the duration of promotion for a durable technology product applicable to a segmented market. A case study is discussed to validate the proposed models and to illustrate the solution methodology based on a differential evolution algorithm.     

A hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk

This study proposes a hybrid information approach to predict corporate credit risk. In contrast to the previous literature that debates which credit risk model is the best, we pool information from a diverse set of structural and reduced‐form models to produce a model combination based on credit risk prediction. Compared with each single model, the pooled strategies yield consistently lower average risk prediction errors over time. We also find that while the reduced‐form models contribute more in the pooled strategies for speculative‐grade names and longer maturities, the structural models have higher weights for shorter maturities and investment grade names.     

The newsvendor model revisited: the impacts of high unit holding costs on the accuracy of the classic model

The newsvendor problem has been applied in various business settings. It is often assumed that the decision variable, i.e., order-up-to level, has no impacts on the holding costs for average inventory cycled in a given period, which is the difference between beginning and ending inventory levels on hand in that period. The average holding cost for this portion of inventory is conveniently and approximately calculated as half the product of the unit holding cost and the expectation of the demand in one period if it is assumed that the inventory is approximately evenly consumed. It is a good approximation when the unit holding cost is significantly lower than the unit backorder cost as this optimal solution to inventory level is able to guarantee a low probability of understocking. However, if this condition does not hold, the approximation may deviate from the actual cost and cannot measure the expected holding cost for this portion of inventory. This paper examines the impact of the cycle stock holding cost on the newsvendor model and the conditions under which this portion of cost is not negligible.     

基于层次模型的消费者生成内容动机研究

随着W eb2.0技术的发展,越来越多的消费者参与网络社区或平台生成各种各样的内容,但是理论界对于消费者生成内容的动机了解还不够全面。本文在借鉴动机理论研究成果的基础上,构建了消费者生成内容动机的层次模型,并以层次模型为基础,对现代企业构建参与式商务模式提出了几点建议。     

电子商务案例分析模型的改进探研

电子商务成功案例的不断涌现,使得越来越多的企业开始关注电子商务,那么如何借鉴那些成功或者失败的电子商务案例的经验和教训,势必需要一个科学的、规范的电子商务案例分析模型。在原有的电子商务案例分析模型的基础上进行研究,提出了改进的分析模型和分析内容。     

A Dynamic Model of Cross-Category Competition: Theory, Tests and Applications

Recent marketing studies use scanner data to diagnose the influence of a change in a brand's marketing mix on other brands in the same category. A few studies also use scanner data to model inter-category effects between substitutes (e.g., tea and coffee) or complements (e.g., tea and sugar). No study models the dynamic effects of cross-category competition though.We present a dynamic model that shows how different products in a typical market basket influence demand of one another. Empirical tests use single-source, market-level data for ice cream and some substitute and complement categories. On the basis of in-sample fit, out-of-sample forecasts, and formal causality tests, this study demonstrates that the marketing mix decisions for ice cream influence the sales and market shares of ice cream toppings and frozen yogurt. As a check on the predictive validity of the model, model parameters, using 16-month data, predict behavior in the subsequent 3 months.