对国有商业银行信贷风险控制技术创新的探讨

我国国有独资商业银行目前在信贷风险控制上仍以定性分析为主,在量化分析上尚刚刚起步,本文在全面分析了国有独资商业银行信贷资产风险控制现状的基础上,试图结合具体情况,引入西方先进风险控制模型,进行修正和补充,为我国国有独资商业银行信贷资产风险控制技术的创新提供一个可行的思路.     

《孔子诗论》、《荀子》及先秦儒学思想的历史脉络

《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》有一脉相承的联系。在对于"情"以及"情"与"乐"关系的认识层面上,关于《诗》与礼的论述中以及关于《诗》的艺术特征上,它们的"《诗》论"都具有一致性。《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》"《诗》论"的相似性、《荀子》与毛鲁韩三家《诗经》传授联系以及《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《毛诗序》的相似性,则非常有力地印证并丰富了孔子——七十子——七十子后学——荀孟——汉儒这一条先秦儒学经籍传授以及思想延续的主线。     

我国社会保障城乡发展状况及对策的实证研究——基于河南省的调查

社会保障城乡分割的格局已经成为我国社会保障制度发展的主要瓶颈.通过对河南省郑州市金水区和新乡市获嘉县的抽样调查,我们对最低生活保障、养老保障、医疗保障制度在城乡的发展状况进行了比较研究.结果显示,低保待遇水平低且城乡差距大、养老保险制度多元分割现象严重、医疗保险报销费用低,是三项基本社会保障制度存在的突出问题.解决上述问题的关键是,加大财政对低保制度的投入力度、加快城乡养老保险制度的优化整合、完善大病保险制度、加快推进社会保障城乡一体化建设.     

《孔子诗论》、《荀子》及先秦儒学思想的历史脉络

《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》有一脉相承的联系。在对于"情"以及"情"与"乐"关系的认识层面上,关于《诗》与礼的论述中以及关于《诗》的艺术特征上,它们的"《诗》论"都具有一致性。《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《荀子》"《诗》论"的相似性、《荀子》与毛鲁韩三家《诗经》传授联系以及《上海博物馆藏战国楚竹书.孔子诗论》与《毛诗序》的相似性,则非常有力地印证并丰富了孔子——七十子——七十子后学——荀孟——汉儒这一条先秦儒学经籍传授以及思想延续的主线。     

The city summit: The lessons of Istanbul

Global summits have been frequent over the past four years — on environment and development in Rio de Janeiro in 1992; on population and development in Cairo in 1994; on social development in Copenhagen in 1995; and on women in Beijing in 1995. The last of this series was the United Nations Conference on Human Settlements (Habitat II) which took place in Istanbul in June 1996. After reminding us of the speed of urbanization and the enormous stakes involved in the development of megalopolises, the author gives his account of this ‘summit on cities’ and seven lessons he learned from it.     

关于构建基层央行廉政预警监测机制的探讨

建立科学的廉政预警监测机制,及时全面掌握有关廉政工作信息,对获取的廉政信息梳理归纳,进行定量定性分析,能够从中发现存在的漏洞和薄弱环节,正确分析和判断腐败行为的苗头和动向,研究解决问题的相关措施,对反腐败工作深入开展具有重要意义。本文结合基层央行纪检监察工作实际,提出了如何构建基层央行廉政预警监测系统基本框架和指标体系的思路,以及进一步提升基层央行廉政预警监测水平的具体建议。     

风险管理、内部控制与国有商业银行海外上市

本文探讨了风险管理、内部控制与国有商业银行海外上市的关系。共分四个部分:一、关于银行风险的几个基本问题;二、关于银行风险的监管要求;三、关于公司治理和内部控制的监管要求;四、关于国有商业银行完善风险管理、内部控制制度的几点建议。第一部分是本文的分析框架;第二、第三部分是从该分析框架的角度对上市监管要求进行的阐述;第四部分是结合分析框架和监管要求,对国有商业银行风险管理改革提出的建议。本文的基本论点是,满足海外上市监管要求是国有商业银行海外上市需达到的最低要求;制定并实施与自身业务战略相适应的风险战略,将直接影响国有商业银行的股票投资价值。     

Stakeholders and the composition of the voting rights of the board of directors

We propose a new approach to dynamic representation of different groups of stakeholders on the board of directors. This approach is based on a simple economic model of the firm, with an objective function to maximize its market value. We look at the marginal claim of each stakeholder on the assets of the firm. It divides the voting rights based on the change in value of each stakeholder with a one dollar change in the value of the firm as a whole. We translate these conditions to relative voting powers on the board. While there are many claims in the academic and popular literature on sharing voting rights on the board, our paper is the first to propose a quantitative dynamic model of the power sharing in the corporation.     

The Effective Tax Burden of Companies and of Highly Skilled Manpower: Tax Policy Strategies in a Globalised Economy*

Company taxes and taxes on highly skilled labour both influence the attractiveness of a particular region as a location for investment. We measure the effective tax burden on capital investment and on highly qualified labour in 33 locations across Europe and the United States. We then correlate both types of tax burden in order to study the different tax policy strategies applied in different countries. We find that effective tax rates on companies and on highly skilled employees are closely correlated for a number of countries. Ireland and most new EU Member States impose relatively lower taxes on capital investment than on highly skilled manpower. Conversely, in the US, companies are taxed heavily but the effective tax rate on highly skilled employees is moderate.     

Personal Taxation and Investment Incentives in a Small Open Economy

A simple portfolio model is used to investigate the effects of personal taxes on real investment incentives in a small open economy with large and small firms. When shares in large firms can be traded internationally and their rate of return is exogenously determined on international equity markets, a tax on the return on riskless bonds will induce a portfolio shift from bonds to shares in large firms. This shift reduces the impact of the bond tax on the required rate of return on shares in domestically owned small firms, provided that returns on shares in small and large firms are positively correlated. The total impact of the bond tax may even change from a negative to a counter-intuitive positive one if the “beta” between the returns on small and large firms is above unity. A personal tax on equity returns does in general have an ambiguous impact on the pre-tax rate of return requirement of domestically owned firms. An exogenous rate of return on large company shares is shown to enhance the possibility for the equity tax to reduce the required pre-tax rate of return in small domestic firms. A sufficient condition for a negative relationship is again that the “beta” between the returns in small and large firms is above unity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

认知能力、社会互动方式与家庭金融资产选择

本文运用CFPS2016数据,研究认知能力与社会互动方式对家庭资产选择的影响.研究发现,认知能力对家庭参与正规金融市场和持有风险资产占比有显著的正向作用,对家庭参与非正规金融市场有显著的抑制作用;线上社会互动对家庭参与正规金融市场和持有风险资产占比的促进作用要显著大于线下社会互动,并对线下社会互动有挤出效应;而线下社会...     

An analysis of intra-industry differences in the effect of regulation: The case of deposit rate ceilings

This study examines the impact of deposit rate ceiling changes on the market value of commercial banks and stock savings and loan associations. Statistically significant increases in market value are found on announcement of the removal of ceilings on large denomination certificates of deposit. In contrast, retail commercial banks and savings and loans experienced declines in value on announcement of the elimination or relaxation of deposit rate ceilings on small denomination consumer accounts. In addition, for all events analyzed, significant differences were found in the effect of ceiling changes on the market value of wholesale and retail commercial banks.     

Human capital and optimal positive taxation of capital income

This paper analyzes optimal linear and non-linear taxes on capital and labor incomes in a life-cycle model of human capital investment, financial savings, and labor supply with heterogenous individuals. A dual income tax with a positive marginal tax rate on not only labor income but also capital income is optimal. The positive tax on capital income serves to alleviate the distortions of the labor tax on human capital accumulation. The optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is lower than that on labor income if savings are elastic compared to investment in human capital, substitution between verifiable and non-verifiable inputs in human capital formation is difficult, and most investments in human capital are verifiable so that education subsidies can directly reduce the tax wedge on learning. Numerical calculations suggest that the optimal marginal tax rate on capital income is substantial.     

Empirical Microeconomics in Changing Times: A Reflection on 50 Years of IFS Research

Since the publication of the Meade Report in 1978 and the establishment of the Fiscal Studies journal in 1979, IFS has been a world leader in the microeconomic analysis of tax policy. Here we document the growing importance of rigorous empirical analysis in our academic and policy research. We point to the expanding reach of IFS research outside the pure analysis of tax policy in the years following the Meade Report and the key role played by the ESRC Centre for the Microeconomic Analysis of Public Policy, established in 1991. This Centre provided the environment for long‐term research across a wide set of fields that has enabled IFS to stay ahead in the policy debate and maintain a leading position in academic research. The breadth and depth of work in tax policy as it impacted on individuals, on families, on the labour market, on firms, on innovation, on retirement, on capital markets and on government revenues are exemplified through the Mirrlees Review. The expansion of IFS research into a broader set of areas, including health, child development and human capital, is captured through the recent launch of the Deaton Review on the causes and consequences of inequality, covering a broad set of inequalities and the challenges they bring to society, to policy and to research.     

Air pollution and mediation effects in stock market,longitudinal evidence from China

By obtaining a novel proprietary city-level panel dataset of stock returns and trading volume in China, this article investigates the effect of air pollution on the stock market while avoiding the possible confounding factors reported in previous similar studies. The analysis finds that there are significant negative effects generated by air pollution on stock returns and trading volume, and these effects manifest themselves on successive days. Air pollution affects stock returns on the same day, which then mediates the effect of air pollution on trading volume on the next day. Similar negative effects are also found in several different pollutants. Our results validate the negative relationship of air pollution on the stock market in literature with longitudinal evidence, and illustrate the steps of the air pollution effect in the stock market.     

“加剧”还是“缓解”：政府转移支付与农户家庭未来减贫——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证分析

基于2018年CFPS数据和Logit模型分析政府转移支付对农户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响及异质性。研究表明：政府转移支付总体上对农户家庭贫困脆弱性并未产生积极的改善效果,反而进一步促进了农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加。从区域异质性看,政府转移支付对贫困脆弱性的正向促进作用主要体现在中、西部地区,并且以中部地区尤为明显。从家庭特征看,政府转移支付主要促使收入贫困农户、非融资约束农户、非土地流转农户、非组织参与农户家庭贫困脆弱性增加,并且对绝对贫困农户的促进效应要大于相对贫困农户。对非收入贫困户、土地流转户和组织参与户家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。从户主特征看,政府转移支付主要对户主健康家庭、自雇户主家庭的贫困脆弱性产生正向促进效应,对稳定受雇户主家庭贫困脆弱性的影响不显著。     

Complementary relationship between female directors and financial literacy in deterring earnings management: The case of high-technology firms

We explore whether the presence of female directors on the boards of high-technology firms has an impact on the boards' monitoring and oversight of earnings management. Using difference-in-difference analyses, we utilize an exogenous change in Israel to examine the changes in, and the effects of, female director representation in constraining earnings management in a changing accounting environment that increased managers' ability to report earnings opportunistically. We find that a high representation of women on the board does not make an incremental contribution to the explanation of earnings management over and above the presence of a female director with financial literacy. However, the presence of one financially literate female director on the board does have a significant effect on restraining earnings management. Moreover, financially literate female directors are more effective than their financially literate male counterparts in deterring earnings management. Our results are robust to controlling for firm characteristics related to the selection of a woman to participate on the BOD as well as to the selection of a financially literate woman in particular. We conclude that financial literacy is complementary to female representation on the board in constraining earnings management. An important economic implication of our findings is that a regulatory move to increase the representation of women on corporate BODs should refer specifically to the inclusion of at least one woman with financial literacy on the board.     

Do the equity holding and soundness of bank underwriters affect issue costs of SEOs?

This paper examines the effects of characteristics of bank underwriters on issue costs in seasoned equity offerings in Japan following deregulation in 1999. I find that banks’ holding loans have a negative effect on price discounts and no effect on underwriting fees. However, banks’ equity holdings have no effect on discount rates and a positive effect on underwriting fees. Furthermore, issuers with unhealthy banks pay higher discount rates, are more likely to be weak in their ex-post operating performance, and are less willing to switch underwriters. I conclude that the characteristics of banks have different effects on issue costs.     

Futures of privacy protection: A framework for creating scenarios of institutional change

The future of privacy is a topical issue in the context of debates on mass surveillance and the increasing prevalence of social media sites in everyday life. Previous scenario studies on privacy have focused on macro trends and on forecasting technological developments, and claims about causal influences have remained implicit. This article presents an alternative approach for constructing scenarios of privacy protection. The article focuses on privacy protection as a social institution and builds on the theory of gradual institutional change. The article presents a scenario framework which includes three stages: (1) outlining the dynamics of privacy protection, (2) tracing historical processes and constructing a causal narrative, and (3) creating event-based scenarios. The resulting scenarios are narratives of plausible chains of events which are based on the results of the previous stages. The key difference to typical scenario approaches is the focus on specific actors and types of event sequences in privacy protection. The argument is that by lowering the level of abstraction in this way, researchers and decision-makers can gain a more profound understanding of possible future challenges in privacy protection and of key leverage points in the institutional change process.