A Conversation with John C. Gower

Editors' Note: This conversation covers the extensive contributions of John C. Gower to statistical methodology, computing and applications. It also touches on the pioneering development of statistical computing at Rothamsted Experimental Station and the relevant work of Frank Yates, John Nelder and others who were at Rothamsted. See also the accompanying paper by John Gower (1985) on developments in statistical computing at Rothamsted (see Note 1) and the epilogue from Roger Payne.     

Identifying Success Factors in Construction Projects: A Case Study

Defining “project success” has been of interest for many years, and recent developments combine multiple measurable and psychosocial factors that add to this definition. There has also been research into success factors, but little research into the causal chains through which success emerges. Following the multi‐dimensionality of “success,” this article shows how success factors combine in complex interactions; it describes factors contributing to project performance by a company working on two major construction programs and shows how to map and analyze paths from root causes to success criteria. The study also identifies some specific factors—some generic, some context‐dependent—none of these is uncommon but here they come together synergistically.     

An Empirical Test of Pricing Kernel Monotonicity

A large class of asset pricing models predicts that securities which have high payoffs when market returns are low tend to be more valuable than those with high payoffs when market returns are high. More generally, we expect the projection of the stochastic discount factor on the market portfolio—that is, the discounted pricing kernel evaluated at the market portfolio—to be a monotonically decreasing function of the market portfolio. Numerous recent empirical studies appear to contradict this prediction. The non‐monotonicity of empirical pricing kernel estimates has become known as the pricing kernel puzzle. In this paper we propose and apply a formal statistical test of pricing kernel monotonicity. We apply the test using 17 years of data from the market for European put and call options written on the S&P 500 index. Statistically significant violations of pricing kernel monotonicity occur in a substantial proportion of months, suggesting that observed non‐monotonicities are unlikely to be the product of statistical noise. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

“A GEM” for increasing the effectiveness of diversity training

Questions about diversity training's utility and effectiveness remain despite its widespread use and the significant investments many firms make in such training. As a result, some HR practitioners have doubts about its relevance in the workplace. In this paper, we envision a future state of diversity training whereby diversity is embedded into work practices and programs through direct knowledge transfer, continuous skill development, and accountability for learning. We recommend four specific guidelines that HR leaders can follow to achieve this “future state” called A.G.E.M.—Approach, Goals, Executive Commitment, and Mandatory Attendance. We suggest that following the A.G.E.M. approach will lead to the kind of transformative behavioral changes required for effective diversity training programs.     

Computer‐Aided Statistical Instruction—Multi‐Mediocre Techno‐Trash?

The very soul of statistics are data, but few students actually collect data as part of their statistical journey. The impediments to real data collection exercises are very real—they are logistically difficult to set up, expensive, and may not work because of extraneous events outside the control of the instructor. Computer‐aided laboratories are a way to bring many of the benefits of actual data collection to students at a fraction of the cost and can be easily controlled by the instructor. There are many computer‐aided modules available—indeed a search on Google gave over 1 million hits. Some modules are good but many are mediocre. What separates the gems from the trash?     

Team vision in product development: How knowledge strategy matters

In today’s more complex multinational and technologically sophisticated environment, the group has re-emerged in importance as the project team. Work teams are important to organizations in general, but are especially critical in product development because they span many functional areas including engineering, marketing, manufacturing, finance, etc., and new product teams must frequently be composed of individuals from different backgrounds and perspectives. In these circumstances, this paper addresses the contingency role that knowledge strategy plays in explaining the relationship between team vision and product development performance. After studying the team vision on 78 new product developments from a wide variety of firms, we found that effective team vision varies depending on the knowledge strategy—defined in terms of punctuated equilibrium in the explorative cycle, low ambidexterity and high ambidexterity. Our results demonstrate that while trade-off is positively associated with success in all strategies, clarity is only associated with low ambidexterity strategies and strategy-fit is only associated with high ambidexterity strategies.     

The shrinking mining city: urban dynamics and contested territory

Shrinking mining cities — once prosperous settlements servicing a mining site or a system of mining sites — are characterized by long-term population and/or economic decline. Many of these towns experience periods of growth and shrinkage, mirroring the ebbs and flows of international mineral markets which determine the fortunes of the dominant mining corporation upon which each of these towns heavily depends. This dependence on one main industry produces a parallel development in the fluctuations of both workforce and population. Thus, the strategies of the main company in these towns can, to a great extent, determine future developments and have a great impact on urban management plans. Climate conditions, knowledge, education and health services, as well as transportation links, are important factors that have impacted on lifestyles in mining cities, but it is the parallel development with the private sector operators (often a single corporation) that constitutes the distinctive feature of these cities and that ultimately defines their shrinkage. This article discusses shrinking mining cities in capitalist economies, the factors underpinning their development, and some of the planning and community challenges faced by these cities in Australia, Canada, Japan and Mexico.     

Analysts' utilization of historical earnings information

This study examines whether security analysts (in)efficiently utilize the information contained in past series of annual and quarterly earnings in producing earnings forecasts. To do so, it investigates whether equal-weighted combinations of security analysts' forecasts with forecasts from statistical models based on historical earnings are superior, both in terms of being a better surrogate for the market's expectations of earnings and of accuracy, to forecasts from either one of these two sources. The empirical findings indicate that, although analysts' forecasts are superior to forecasts from statistical models, performance can be improved—both in terms of accuracy and also of being a better surrogate for market earnings expectations—by combining analysts' forecasts with forecasts from statistical models based on past quarterly earnings. Improvements in proxying for market earnings expectations were obtained even when analysts' forecasts made in June of the forecast year were used in the combinations. An implication of these findings is that investors can improve their investment decisions by using an average of the mean analysts' forecasts and the forecast produced by a time-series model of quarterly earnings in their investment decisions.     

Comparison of Input–Output,Input–Output + Econometric and Computable General Equilibrium Impact Models at the Regional Level

Economic impact studies are a common practice—indeed, a necessary prerequisite in many cases of project development—in Australia. Although input–output (IO) is still regarded as the ‘bread-and-butter’ model for these types of study, attention in recent years has turned towards more sophisticated models, the main contenders being integrated IO + econometric and computable general equilibrium models. All these models, which are often promoted as substitutes, exhibit characteristics which are theoretically and empirically appealing, yet questions have been raised with respect to the different approaches, with apparently little awareness at the practitioner level as to the extent of these differences. This paper compares the three models and demonstrates that the differences can be quite substantial, even when the models rely on the same database and are subjected to the same impact scenario.     

Demolishing the Present to Sell off the Future? The Emergence of ‘Financialized Municipal Entrepreneurialism’ in London

This article introduces a new mode of urban entrepreneurialism in London through a study of the state‐executed, speculative development and financialization of public land. In response to an intensifying housing crisis and austerity‐imposed fiscal constraints, municipalities in London are devising entrepreneurial solutions to deliver more housing. Among these ‘solutions’ can be found the early signs of the state‐executed financialization of public housing in the UK with the use of speculative council‐owned special purpose vehicles (SPVs) that replace existing public housing stock with mixed‐tenure developments, creating ambiguous public/private tenancies that function as homes and the basis for liquid financial assets. Drawing together parallel literatures on the financialization of urban governance and housing, and combining these with original empirical research, we situate these developments in contrast to earlier modes of governance, identifying a distinct mode of entrepreneurial governance in London: financialized municipal entrepreneurialism. The local state is no longer merely the enabler—limited to providing strategic oversight of the private sector—but financializes its practice in a reimagined commercialized interventionism, as property speculator. This article concludes that while the architects of this new mode of entrepreneurialism extol the increased capacity and control it provides, any such gains must be set against longer‐term financial, democratic and political risks.     

Rent Subsidy and Housing Satisfaction The Case of Urban Renewal In Lubbock, Texas

—Governmental programs proposing rental supplements for low-income families assume that social and economic conditions of these families may be improved by such subsidy. However, this assumption has not been adequately tested by social science research. Data presented here were gathered at an urban renewal relocation housing project in Lubbock, Texas, and suggest that when families who, before urban renewal, were self-sufficient in slum housing are forced into welfare situations because of rent subsidy programs, dissatisfaction with relocation facilities results. The data also indicate that dissatisfaction is correlated positively with the number of persons in the household, the age of residents, and socioeconomic status.     

Who Builds Cities in China? How Urban Investment and Development Companies Have Transformed Shanghai

While there is general acceptance that urban governance in China is entrepreneurial in nature, little has been written about the precise ways in which Chinese cities implement entrepreneurial policies. In this article we argue that the primary agents of urban entrepreneurialism in China are urban investment and development companies (UIDCs), known in Chinese as chengtou for short. We start by defining UIDCs as a category of state-owned enterprise, but one that is wholly owned by local (often city) governments. We note that in the literature UIDCs are generally recognized for their involvement in raising funds for projects and piling up hidden debts, but their multiple roles in urban development tend to be neglected. We introduce here four UIDCs that have been largely responsible for the transformation of Shanghai into a modern city spearheading Chinese state entrepreneurialism, and in doing so we delineate the full range of the activities of these urban business empires. We argue in particular that they represent a corporate involvement by the state in urban development—the state presenting itself in the guise of a market player, a corporate entity able to raise funds and act as if it were a private company. UIDCs are the driving force behind China's urban entrepreneurialism and are without a clear parallel elsewhere.     

Open Source Software: Private Provision of a Public Good

A simple model of open source software (as typified by the GNU-Linux operating system) is presented. Individual user-programmers decide whether to invest their own effort to develop a software enhancement that will become a public good if so developed. The effect of changing the population size of user-programmers is considered; finite and asymptotic results are given. Welfare results are presented. It is shown that whether development will increase when applications have a modular structure depends on whether the developer base exceeds a critical size. Potential explanations of several stylized facts are given, including why certain useful programs don't get written.     

基于虚拟机技术的QNX系统应用程序界面的开发

QNX作为优秀的嵌入式实时操作系统之一,在各个关键领域得到了广泛应用。文章将日益成熟的虚拟机技术引入QNX应用程序界面的开发,建立了"宿主机—目标机"平台开发模式,在一台PC机中构建QNX图形界面程序开发平台。测试运行结果表明,该平台有效的提高了QNX系统的界面程序的开发效率,对其他系统程序的开发也具有借鉴意义。     

Tracking corporate tigers in the seventies

Fast track programs frequently follow “no track” programs and are started when management suddenly realizes that it cannot fill its need for promotable talent. This is not the best motive for such a program, but because there is often inadequate or ineffective planning in normal manpower development, career guidance, and manpower planning, a fast track program can serve as a step towards broader-based, more inclusive manpower planning and development activities.     

Redistribution and the Nature of Altruism: Should Welfare Programs be Centralized or Decentralized?

Decentralization of income redistribution may lead to policy competition between jurisdictions and therefore underprovision of redistribution. The ability to carry out redistribution programs is therefore an argument in favor of allocating this responsibility to some higher level authority. On the other hand, empirical results show that the taste for redistribution is lower in multi-ethnic jurisdictions than in more homogenous ones. Centralized redistribution may encompass a larger number of ethnic minorities, and thereby negatively affect redistribution programs. The present paper models the trade-off between these two forces and argues that this trade-off will depend on the nature of altruistic preferences. We would like to thank two anonymous referees for constructive comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies. We would also like to thank Ruhrgas AG for financial support, and Wissenschaftzentrum Berlin (WZB) for hosting us during the summer of 2003, when this paper was written.     

Forecasting from time series subject to sporadic perturbations: Effectiveness of different types of forecasting support

How effective are different approaches for the provision of forecasting support? Forecasts may be either unaided or made with the help of statistical forecasts. In practice, the latter are often crude forecasts that do not take sporadic perturbations into account. Most research considers forecasts based on series that have been cleansed of perturbation effects. This paper considers an experiment in which people made forecasts from time series that were disturbed by promotions. In all conditions, under-forecasting occurred during promotional periods and over-forecasting during normal ones. The relative sizes of these effects depended on the proportions of periods in the data series that contained promotions. The statistical forecasts improved the forecasting accuracy, not because they reduced these biases, but because they decreased the random error (scatter). The performance improvement did not depend on whether the forecasts were based on cleansed series. Thus, the effort invested in producing cleansed time series from which to forecast may not be warranted: companies may benefit from giving their forecasters even crude statistical forecasts. In a second experiment, forecasters received optimal statistical forecasts that took the effects of promotions into account fully. This increased the accuracy because the biases were almost eliminated and the random error was reduced by 20%. Thus, the additional effort required to produce forecasts that take promotional effects into account is worthwhile.     

A review of stata 3.1

Stata 3.1 is a program for data management, graphics, and statistical analysis. Since Version 2.1 was reviewed by Pederson (1991), Stata has added several platforms, third-party products, supporting services, and many features of interest to econometricians. The result is that Stata 3.1 integrates fast and reliable manipulation of data with high-powered statistical analysis. For users who do no more than run regressions, the new features do not detract from the feel of ease and control Stata gives the researcher working with any data set, large or small. A unique system to disseminate user-written programs lets Stata grow continuously without becoming unwieldy, ensuring that Stata will become a standard package in several branches of applied statistics. This review summarizes the hardware requirements of Stata, demonstrates a short but typical Stata session, and discusses some of the unique elements of Stata.     

The federal role in commercial technology development

Technology and science are linked in many ways, sometimes tightly, sometimes loosely, but development of new technologies is a fundamentally different activity from scientific research. The U.S. Government, therefore, cannot assume that expenditures for scientific research will automatically translate into the commercial products and processes vital for an internationally competitive economy. Nor can it assume that expenditures on military R&D will contribute broadly to the civilian technology base. If governments wish to support commercial technology development, they must do more than support research.Many American companies, for example, could benefit from programs aimed at the development of generic technologies with broad commercial relevance. Examples include: applied research in microelectronic devices; combustion processes and automobile safety; disciplines such as engineering design; the science base for manufacturing; common technical concerns such as lubrication and wear or structural integrity. They could also benefit from improved mechanisms for the diffusion of such technologies domestically. To fill R&D gaps on both a technology-specific and an industry-specific basis, the existing system — small in scale and largely experimental — of government-supported centers for generic and cooperative R&D could be broadened and strengthened. The U.S. Government could also provide partial support for technology extension services run by State Governments.