英孚：布局中国的辩证关系

染成黄绿色的头发一根一根地树立着,然而一身中规中矩的西服却非常笔挺,他就是英孚教育（English First）和中国区总裁比尔·费舍尔（Bill Fisher）。比尔长相酷似北欧人,但却是地地道道的美国人,比尔认为他对英孚的管理之道跟他的穿着打扮非常类似——中规中矩中坚持独立个性……     

An Interview with Chris Skinner

Chris Skinner was born in London on 12 March 1953. He completed a BA in mathematics in 1975 at the University of Cambridge. He then obtained an MSc degree in statistics from the London School of Economics and Political Science (LSE) in 1976 and worked as an assistant statistician in the Central Statistical Office for 1 year. After working as a research assistant in LSE from 1977 to 1978, he joined the University of Southampton as a lecturer in 1978, where he earned a PhD in social statistics in 1982. He remained at the University of Southampton, where he became a senior lecturer in 1989 and professor of statistics in 1994. While serving as the head of his department from 1997 to 2000, he played a crucial role in the creation of an MSc programme in official statistics in 1999. In 2011, he returned to the LSE, where he currently holds the position of professor of statistics. Chris is the author of over 80 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical journals and the co‐editor of two influential books on the analysis of survey data. He made significant research contributions covering areas that include the analysis of survey data, inference in the presence of non‐response and measurement errors and statistical disclosure control. He served on several advisory committees, including the Statistical Methods Advisory Committee at Statistics Canada (from 2000 to 2011) and the National Statistics Methodology Advisory Committee in the United Kingdom (from 2001 to 2010). He has received numerous awards and honors for his outstanding contributions to survey sampling and social statistics. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Fellow of the British Academy and a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences. In 2009, he received the West Medal from the Royal Statistical Society for contributions to social statistics, and in 2010, he was made a Commander of the Most Excellent Order of the British Empire. In 2019, he also received the Waksberg award to recognize his contributions to survey methodology. The following conversation took place at LSE on 21 May 2019.     

A Conversation with Jean‐Louis Bodin

Jean‐Louis Bodin has had a distinguished career as an official statistician in the French and European statistical systems, where he has been working for 40 years. Born in 1941 in Bordeaux, the capital city of one of the most famous vineyards in the world, he became graduate of two French prestigious schools, the Ecole Polytechnique in 1963, then the ENSAE (Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Economique) in 1966. After having spent 20 years in different positions in the French Statistical System, he dedicated the last 20 years of his career to international relations in official statistics and cooperation for strengthening statistical capacities of transition and developing countries. In particular, he was one of the main drafters of the UN Resolution on Fundamental Principles for Official Statistics and of the African Statistical Charter. He is also known for having created AFRISTAT, the Economic and Statistical Observatory of Sub‐Saharan African countries. He was also during years one of the French representatives in the UN Statistical Commission, the UN Conference of European Statisticians and the Statistical Committee Programme of the European Union. Jean‐Louis Bodin has played for 40 years a very active role in national and international statistical societies. He served on many disparate positions in the ISI family: executive director of the International Association of Survey Statisticians from 1981 to 1985 under the successive chairmanships of Gérard Théodore and Leslie Kish, founding member in 1985 with Vera Nyitrai of the International Association for Official Statistics and president of the Association from 1989 to 1991, secretary‐general of the National Organizing Committee of the 47th ISI Session held in Paris in August 1989, Chair of the Programme Coordinating Committee of the 50th ISI Session held in Beijing in August 1995, ISI president‐elect then president from 1997 to 2001, president of the Jury of the Mahalanobis Prize from 2002 to 2005. He was also president of the Société de Statistique de Paris in 1994. He received the certificate of Fellow of the American Statistical Association in 1996 and was a member of the ASA Committee for International Relations in Statistics from 1993 to 1997. He was bestowed in 2006 as a Chevalier de la Légion d'Honneur (Knight of the Legion of Honour) in France and in 1997 as a Kawaleski Orderu Zas?ugi(Knight of the Order of Merit) in Poland. He received the Medal of Statistical Merit in Vietnam in 2003 and the African Statistical Award bestowed by the UN Economic Conference for Africa in 2012. This conversation was held in June 2013 with Gilbert Saporta in Paris. Gilbert Saporta: Welcome to this interview, Jean‐Louis. I'm delighted that you could spend some time with me to discuss your career, your achievements and your views on some aspects of official statistics. It appears that your professional career as a French official statistician and your participation in ISI activities were tightly linked.

     

A Conversation with James O. Ramsay

Jim Ramsay was born on September 5, 1942, in Prince George, British Columbia. He pursued undergraduate studies at the University of Alberta, where he completed a BEd in 1964 with a major in English and a minor in mathematics. He then specialized in statistics and psychometry, earning a PhD in psychology from Princeton University in 1966. After holding a temporary lectureship in the Department of Psychology at University College London for one year, he joined the Department of Psychology at McGill University, where he rose through the academic ranks. He was chair of his department from 1986 to 1989 and spent sabbatical leaves in Cambridge, Grenoble, and Toulouse. He was named professor emeritus upon his retirement in 2007. Jim is the author of four influential books and over 100 peer‐reviewed articles in statistical and psychometric journals. He developed much of the statistical theory behind multidimensional scaling and is widely recognized as the founder of functional data analysis. Three of his papers were read to the Royal Statistical Society, and another won The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2000 Best Paper Award. The Statistical Society of Canada (SSC) awarded him a Gold Medal for research in 1998 and an honorary membership in 2012. Jim was president of the Psychometric Society in 1981–82 and president of the SSC in 2002–03. The following conversation took place at Jim's home in Ottawa, Ontario, on March 14 and April 4, 2012.     

Pearson's Statistics in the Netherlands and the Astronomer Kapteyn

In 1903 the well-known Dutch astronomer Kapteyn published a paper in which he discussed statistical methods which he thought would be relevant for biologists. His motivation was the 1895 paper of Pearson on skew frequency curves. Kapteyn had concluded that the theory was open to grave objections and was not adapted to nonmathematical readers. He was then led to an independent investigation of the subject. This publication would lead to a heated dialogue between Kapteyn and Pearson, in which they accused each other of inappropriate starting points, of plagiarism and of making serious mathematical mistakes. This article evaluates these claims. In addition, Kapteyn's struggle to make his work accessible to biologists is discussed.     

Franz Oppenheimer's (1864–1943) Social Economic Approach to Health

The idea of scholarly synthesis was central to the founders of the American Journal of Economics and Sociology. Franz Oppenheimer (1864–1943) in fact impersonated the idea of scholarly synthesis. Being the son of a Reformist rabbi—these religious roots provided the impulse for his work—he started out as a physician in the industrial suburbs of Berlin; his diagnosis was that he faced social and not medical disease, which consequently brought him to the study of economics. But unlike many mainstream economists today, he insisted on the necessary cooperation between economists and sociologists, ideally in one person. His chair in Frankfurt, showing his own handwriting, was denominated for economic theory and sociology. In this article, I show his contributions with respect to economic aspects of health. These are not well known. Part of the reason is that the field of health economics as it is taught now is very narrow. Therefore, Oppenheimer's health economic contributions tend to be overlooked.     

A Conversation With Paul Embrechts

Paul Embrechts was born in Schoten, Belgium, on 3 February 1953. He holds a Licentiaat in Mathematics from Universiteit Antwerpen (1975) and a DSc from Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (1979), where he was also a Research Assistant from 1975 to 1983. He then held a lectureship in Statistics at Imperial College, London (1983–1985) and was a Docent at Limburgs Universitair Centrum, Belgium (1985–1989) before joining ETH Zürich as a Full Professor of Mathematics in 1989, where he remained until his retirement as an Emeritus in 2018. A renowned specialist of extreme-value theory and quantitative risk management, he authored or coauthored nearly 200 scientific papers and five books, including the highly influential ‘Modelling of Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance’ (Springer, 1997) and ‘Quantitative Risk Management: Concepts, Techniques and Tools’ (Princeton University Press, 2005, 2015). He served in numerous editorial capacities, notably as Editor-in-Chief of the ASTIN Bulletin (1996–2005). Praised for his natural leadership and exceptional communication skills, he helped to bridge the gap between academia and industry through the foundation of RiskLab Switzerland and his sustained leadership for nearly 20 years. He gave numerous prestigious invited and keynote lectures worldwide and served as a member of the board of, or consultant for, various banks, insurance companies and international regulatory authorities. His work was recognised through several visiting positions, including at the Oxford-Man Institute, and many awards. He is, inter alia, an Elected Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (1995) and the American Statistical Association (2014), an Honorary Fellow of the Institute and the Faculty of Actuaries (2000), Honorary Member of the Belgian (2010) and French (2015) Institute of Actuaries and was granted four honorary degrees (University of Waterloo, 2007; Heriot-Watt University, 2011; Université catholique de Louvain, 2012; City, University of London, 2017). The following conversation took place in Paul's office at ETH Zürich, 17–18 December 2018.     

Unity in the Social Thought of Adolph Lowe: A Review of "Essays in Political Economics: Public Control in a Democratic Society"

Abstract . From the economist Adolph Lowe's voluminous-writings, Allen Oakleyh has selected eight essays which present the gist of Lowe's thought. It unifies his structural analyses and his instrumental analyses into the system Lowe calls “Political Economics.” This pre-orders desired ends or effects and then determines or applies goal-adequate means to achieve these ends. Lowe's Essays in Political Economics sketches the economic paradigm by which he expands the evolutionary way of thinking from the subject —economic behavior— to the object, the socioeconomic world. He argues that instability is fundamental, basic and inherent in contemporary industrial capitalism as it has evolved physically, technologically and socially and stability can be restored by an approach which reverses the continuum to end-means. He holds that if the world evolves, and it does, so must the goal-adequate methods and instrumentalities to deal with it.     

Henry George: The Economist as Moralist*

Abstract . Henry George derived his economic theory from his personal experience. He had the good fortune to be living in California during his formative years; there the economic events which transpired during the settlement of the North American continent—the passing of the frontier and its consequences—occurred within a time span of a few years and the telescoping of history gave him the framework for an original economic system, as well as a utopian vision of a free society. Much attention has properly been paid to George's economic ideas but he was also a moralist, one accepted by some philosophers as among the greatest. This aspect of his work, and particularly his value theory, have been neglected.     

LACK OF RIGOUR IN DEFENDING FAIRTRADE: A REPLY TO ALASTAIR SMITH

Alastair Smith (2009 ) claims to refute a few criticisms of Fairtrade. It is shown that his empirical evidence consists of anecdotes with no statistical or other evidential value, and that his economics is wrong. Though Fairtrade is an agricultural marketing system, he appears not to be aware of the literature on agricultural marketing or co‐operatives. Accordingly he makes statements not in accord with the accepted theory or evidence. He assumes, for instance, backward‐sloping supply curves and that the prices offered by state marketing boards are not affected by markets. There are ethical trading alternatives which avoid all the criticisms of Fairtrade.     

The frontiers within: why employee representatives fail to set up European works councils

This article reviews results of a study conducted by the Technische Universität München into why the majority of German multinationals covered by the European Works Council (EWC) Directive (1994) continue not to take advantage of this legal provision. After providing a brief outline of the project's research design, the main part of the article considers reasons why employee representatives fail to set up an EWC. As will be shown, these reasons mainly concern (i) a knowledge deficit about the EWC Directive; (ii) a lack of transparency regarding company structure; and (iii) the perceived limited value of an EWC on the part of German works councillors.     

浅析和珅与管理

本文从对和珅的一生着手,分析、归纳、总结,他一生中所运用到的管理理念。虽然众所周知和珅是一个前无古人,后无来者的大贪官,但是,他之所以能成为一个能名留千古的人物,也可以说明他的一生不同寻常。因此,我们通过对和珅的分析,了解,可以看到他是怎样运用管理这个名词。     

Aristotle and Earthquake Data: A Historical Note

The earliest known written work on earthquake theory was written by Aristotle (c. 330 B.C.). Aristotle had collected a lot of earthquake data and therefore we assume (or rather speculate) he had to organize, to classify and to summarize them in order to use and describe them in his work. With respect to the history of Statistics, the Aristotelian text on earthquake theory is probably the earliest written application of statistical tables on collected data.     

三代木头人的不老歌

木玩世家的繁衍,是精神和工艺的代代相传,正像那座"盖不完的庙""你有能力就当总经理,没能力的话就在边上当当股东算了。"何彬和父亲何尚清的回忆在这句话上重合了。2003年,25岁的何彬接了班,这时距父亲创立和信玩具有限公司已有12年。温州永强机场出来,坐去丽水的中巴,两小时后再转乘出租车,40分钟左右便可驶入云和县城。如果你跟我一样感兴趣于这个"中国木制玩具城"的商业家族,行业领路人何寿祯老先生是绕不过去的传奇。     

A Conversation with Roger Koenker

Roger William Koenker was born February 21, 1947. He graduated from Grinnell College in 1969 and obtained his PhD in Economics from University of Michigan in 1974 under the direction of Saul Hymans. He was Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Illinois at Urbana‐Champaign (UIUC) from 1974 to 1976, and a member of Technical Staff at Bell Telephone Laboratories from 1976 to 1983 and returned to UIUC as Professor in 1983. He is currently a William B. McKinley Professor of Economics and Professor of Statistics at UIUC. He is best known for his seminal work on quantile regression, which has emerged as a powerful regression analysis tool across many disciplines. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association, Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Fellow of Econometric Society, and recipient of the 2010 Emanuel and Carol Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation. The conversation covers part of Roger Koenker's career as an econometrician and statistician, starting from his college years.     

One Possible Frame for Thinking about Experiential Learning

I argue that teaching statistical thinking is harder than teaching mathematics, that experimental design is particularly well suited to teaching statistical thinking and that in teaching statistics, variation is good. We need a mix of archival data, simulations and activities, of varying degrees of complexity. Within this context, I applaud the important contributions to our profession represented by Darius et al. (2007) , and Nolan & Temple Lang (2007) , the first for showing us how to make simulation‐based learning simultaneously more flexible and more realistic than ever before, and the second for showing us a path‐breaking technology that can make archival data the basis for active learning at an impressively high level of sophistication, embedding statistical thinking within real scientific and practical investigations.     

L. D. Taylor: The Man Who Made Vancouver

This article examines the valuable work of Louis D. Taylor, an early mayor of Vancouver, with the aim of sorting out the sources of the cloud over his reputation. Taylor was mayor of Vancouver more times than anyone, intermittently, and over a long period—1910 to 1934. In spite of his solid on‐the‐ground accomplishments and proven electoral popularity, journalists today tend to ignore or dismiss him; historians keep alive doubts about his integrity; and, among the general public, his name is almost unknown. The author attempts to revive interest in and clarify misconceptions about Taylor by examining his long public career as the multi‐sided reform mayor of Vancouver.     

European trade unions and ‘atypical’ workers

The increase in ‘atypical’ or precarious forms of work, including part‐time, temporary or agency, contracted‐out, posted, dependent self‐employed and undocumented work, has created one of the major challenges facing trade unions in Europe today. Indeed, the ‘atypical’ has become more and more ‘typical’ in a number of European countries, particularly among women and younger workers. The rise in atypical forms of work calls for changes in the way trade unions develop strategies, policies and structures and presents a challenge to their traditional ways of thinking and organising. This article begins with the definition of atypical work and a general overview of the literature on the subject before moving on to the nature of the challenge it creates for trade unions in Europe and an overview of their responses, drawing on preliminary findings from a three‐year research project in unions in 10 European countries. The article concludes that while unions have made a great deal of progress in addressing the concerns of atypical workers, they will have to make substantial changes to their structures, thinking and way of operating in order to be fully able to respond to the challenge of this growing form of work.     

Karl Pearson and the Establishment of Mathematical Statistics

At the end of the nineteenth century, the content and practice of statistics underwent a series of transitions that led to its emergence as a highly specialised mathematical discipline. These intellectual and later institutional changes were, in part, brought about by a mathematical-statistical translation of Charles Darwin's redefinition of the biological species as something that could be viewed in terms of populations. Karl Pearson and W.F.R. Weldon's mathematical reconceptualisation of Darwinian biological variation and "statistical" population of species in the 1890s provided the framework within which a major paradigmatic shift occurred in statistical techniques and theory. Weldon's work on the shore crab in Naples and Plymouth from 1892 to 1895 not only brought them into the forefront of ideas of speciation and provided the impetus to Pearson's earliest statistical innovations, but it also led to Pearson shifting his professional interests from having had an established career as a mathematical physicist to developing one as a biometrician. The innovative statistical work Pearson undertook with Weldon in 1892 and later with Francis Galton in 1894 enabled him to lay the foundations of modern mathematical statistics. While Pearson's diverse publications, his establishment of four laboratories and the creation of new academic departments underscore the plurality of his work, the main focus of his life-long career was in the establishment and promulgation of his statistical methodology.     

An Empirical Test of Pricing Kernel Monotonicity

A large class of asset pricing models predicts that securities which have high payoffs when market returns are low tend to be more valuable than those with high payoffs when market returns are high. More generally, we expect the projection of the stochastic discount factor on the market portfolio—that is, the discounted pricing kernel evaluated at the market portfolio—to be a monotonically decreasing function of the market portfolio. Numerous recent empirical studies appear to contradict this prediction. The non‐monotonicity of empirical pricing kernel estimates has become known as the pricing kernel puzzle. In this paper we propose and apply a formal statistical test of pricing kernel monotonicity. We apply the test using 17 years of data from the market for European put and call options written on the S&P 500 index. Statistically significant violations of pricing kernel monotonicity occur in a substantial proportion of months, suggesting that observed non‐monotonicities are unlikely to be the product of statistical noise. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.