How mutual fund investors’ objective and subjective knowledge impacts their information search and processing behaviour

Contrary to the popular belief that objective knowledge (OK) (that is, what is actually stored in the memory) and subjective knowledge (SK) (that is, what individuals perceive they know) differently impact information search and information-processing behaviour, an empirical study conducted on 268 mutual fund (MF) investors suggests no significant difference in the impact of OK and SK on the width and depth of information search and information processing. The study suggests that OK and SK significantly positively impact the width and depth of information search and information-processing behaviour, however, no significant difference exists in the way they impact. The possible explanation put forward is that even though MF investors may suffer from self-deception (that is, pseudo expertise) and report high knowledge (that is, high SK), the impact of SK on actual investment behaviour is not significantly different from that of OK. The implications of the findings are also discussed.     

Overconfidence and Investor Size

Recent research documents that institutional or large investors act as antagonists to other investors by showing opposite trading behaviour following the disclosure of new information. Using an extremely comprehensive official transactions data set from Finland, we set out to explore the interrelation between investor size and behaviour. More specifically, we test whether investor size is positively (negatively) correlated with investor reaction following positive (negative) news. We document robust evidence of that investor size affects investor behaviour under new information, as larger investors on average react more positively (negatively) to good (bad) news than smaller investors. We furthermore find that the performance of smaller, or more overconfident, investors is in general hurt by their behaviour.     

Factors affecting investors’ intention to purchase gold and silver bullion: evidence from Malaysia

Gold and silver prices have surged since the 1980s, and they have been used as a store of value for fear of a financial meltdown. However, gold and silver in the form of bullion are still not so popular compared with other gold and silver products (jewellery) and other financial instruments in Malaysia. Limited study has actually verified the factors that affect the investors’ intention to purchase bullion. Thus, this study explores factors affecting investors’ behaviour and their intention to purchase bullion based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This study also examines the moderating effect of scepticism between investors’ behaviour and their intention to purchase bullion. A total of 208 sets of data collected in a self-administered online structured survey was analysed using PLS-SEM. This study finds that investors’ behavioural belief and control belief significantly and positively affect their respective attitude towards behaviour and perceived behavioural control and, thus, intention to purchase bullion. Results are found insignificant for normative belief, normative attitude and intention to purchase bullion and the moderating effect of scepticism in affecting investors’ intention to purchase bullion. The findings of this study hope to provide insight and deeper understanding to bullion traders and financial advisors in improving their marketing strategies in growing interest in the bullion market.

     

Investor Information Demand: Evidence from Google Searches Around Earnings Announcements

The objective of this study is to investigate factors that influence investor information demand around earnings announcements and to provide insights into how variation in information demand impacts the capital market response to earnings. The Internet is one channel through which public information is disseminated to investors and we propose that one way that investors express their demand for public information is via Google searches. We find that abnormal Google search increases about two weeks prior to the earnings announcement, spikes markedly at the announcement, and continues at high levels for a period after the announcement. This finding suggests that information diffusion is not instantaneous with the release of the earnings information, but rather is spread over a period surrounding the announcement. We also find that information demand is positively associated with media attention and news, and is negatively associated with investor distraction. When investors search for more information in the days just prior to the announcement, preannouncement price and volume changes reflect more of the upcoming earnings news and there is less of a price and volume response when the news is announced. This result suggests that, when investors demand more information about a firm, the information content of the earnings announcement is partially preempted.     

Constructing a positive sentiment index for COVID-19: Evidence from G20 stock markets

The present study investigates the degree of market responses through the scope of investors' sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic across G20 markets by constructing a novel positive search volume index for COVID-19 (COVID19⁺). Our key findings, obtained using a Panel-GARCH model, indicate that an increased COVID19⁺ index suggests that investors decrease their COVID-19 related crisis sentiment by escalating their Google searches for positively associated COVID-19 related keywords. Specifically, we explore the predictive power of the newly constructed index on stock returns and volatility. According to our findings, investor sentiment positively (negatively) predicts the stock return (volatility) during the COVID-19. This is the first study assessing global sentiment by proposing a novel proxy and its impacts on the G20 equity market.     

Does investor recognition predict returns?

Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] shows that stocks about which not all investors are informed should yield a return premium. This premium depends on the shadow cost of incomplete information which in turn depends on the shareholder base, relative market size, and idiosyncratic risk. Utilizing a comprehensive database of Swedish shareholdings, we demonstrate that stock returns are positively related to the shadow cost. We also find that the shareholder base is negatively related to returns when controlling for size and idiosyncratic risk. Zero-cost portfolios based on the shadow cost/shareholder base yield substantial trading profits that are never positively correlated with the market and are only modestly explained by the four-factor model.     

Investor recognition and stock returns

It is well established that investment fundamentals, such as earnings and cash flows, can explain only a small proportion of the variation in stock returns. We find that investor recognition of a firm’s stock can explain relatively more of the variation in stock returns. Consistent with Merton’s (J Finance 42(3):483–510, 1987) theoretical analysis, we show that (i) contemporaneous stock returns are positively related to changes in investor recognition, (ii) future stock returns are negatively related to changes in investor recognition, (iii) the above relations are stronger for stocks with greater idiosyncratic risk and (iv) corporate investment and financing activities are both positively related to changes in investor recognition. Our research suggests that investors and managers who are concerned with firm valuation should consider investor recognition in addition to accounting information and related investment fundamentals.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of stock returns: Merton (1987) meets Miller (1977)

Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] predicts that idiosyncratic risk should be priced when investors hold sub-optimally diversified portfolios, and cross-sectional stock returns should be positively related to their idiosyncratic risk. However, the literature generally finds a negative relationship between returns and idiosyncratic risk, which is more consistent with Miller's [1977. Risk, uncertainty, and divergence of opinion. Journal of Finance 32, 1151–1168] analysis of asset pricing under short-sale constraints. We examine the cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic risk while explicitly recognizing the confounding effects that dispersion of beliefs and short-sale constraints produce in the Merton framework. We find strong support for Merton's [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] model among stocks that have low levels of investor recognition and for which short selling is limited. For these stocks, the relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected returns is positive, as predicted by Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510].     

Investor and price response to patterns in earnings surprises

As part of their model to explain short-term positive and long-term negative auto-correlation in stock returns, Barberis, Shleifer, and Vishny [1998. A model of investor sentiment. Journal of Finance 49, 307–345] suggest that investors may extrapolate trends in earnings performance. I test this portion of their model by examining investor trading patterns in firms that experience consecutive same-sign earnings surprises. Consistent with their model, after controlling for regularities in trading activity, I find that the net buying of small investors increases with the number of consecutive positive earnings surprises. I further find that purchasing activity of small investors subsequent to consecutive positive surprises is significantly negatively correlated with returns throughout the remainder of the year. These results suggest that such investors are not simply rationally updating after public news announcements. My results are robust to controlling for auto-correlation in earnings surprises.     

Idiosyncratic risk and the cross-section of expected stock returns

Theories such as Merton [1987. A simple model of capital market equilibrium with incomplete information. Journal of Finance 42, 483–510] predict a positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected return when investors do not diversify their portfolio. Ang, Hodrick, Xing, and Zhang [2006. The cross-section of volatility and expected returns. Journal of Finance 61, 259–299], however, find that monthly stock returns are negatively related to the one-month lagged idiosyncratic volatilities. I show that idiosyncratic volatilities are time-varying and thus, their findings should not be used to imply the relation between idiosyncratic risk and expected return. Using the exponential GARCH models to estimate expected idiosyncratic volatilities, I find a significantly positive relation between the estimated conditional idiosyncratic volatilities and expected returns. Further evidence suggests that Ang et al.'s findings are largely explained by the return reversal of a subset of small stocks with high idiosyncratic volatilities.     

Herding and Feedback Trading by Institutional and Individual Investors

We document strong positive correlation between changes in institutional ownership and returns measured over the same period. The result suggests that either institutional investors positive-feedback trade more than individual investors or institutional herding impacts prices more than herding by individual investors. We find evidence that both factors play a role in explaining the relation. We find no evidence, however, of return mean-reversion in the year following large changes in institutional ownership—stocks institutional investors purchase subsequently outperform those they sell. Moreover, institutional herding is positively correlated with lag returns and appears to be related to stock return momentum.     

Conditional coskewness and asset pricing

We explore the empirical usefulness of conditional coskewness to explain the cross-section of equity returns. We find that coskewness is an important determinant of the returns to equity, and that the pricing relationship varies through time. In particular we find that when the conditional market skewness is positive investors are willing to sacrifice 7.87% annually per unit of gamma (a standardized measure of coskewness risk) while they only demand a premium of 1.80% when the market is negatively skewed. A similar picture emerges from the coskewness factor of Harvey and Siddique (Harvey, C., Siddique, A., 2000a. Conditional skewness in asset pricing models tests. Journal of Finance 65, 1263–1295.) (a portfolio that is long stocks with small coskewness with the market and short high coskewness stocks) which earns 5.00% annually when the market is positively skewed but only 2.81% when the market is negatively skewed. The conditional two-moment CAPM and a conditional Fama and French (Fama, E., French, K., 1992. The cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 47,427465.) three-factor model are rejected, but a model which includes coskewness is not rejected by the data. The model also passes a structural break test which many existing asset pricing models fail.     

Factors Influencing Interest Rates on Delinquent Property Tax Certificates

This study examines the market for delinquent property tax certificates, a commonly used enforcement mechanism in property tax systems around the United States. We model the value of such certificates using a continuous-time framework and propose a statistical model that allows testing for factors that affect interest rates charged by investors who purchase the certificates as investment instruments. Using sample data from tax certificate sales in Florida from 1982 to 2000, we find that interest rates on certificates are negatively and significantly related to assessed property value and homestead status, and positively related to local ownership. We find an inverse relationship between interest rates and the number of certificates purchased by the certificate investor, indicating a significant clientele effect in this market. We also find that the implied effective tax rate is positively related to the interest rates charged by investors. Overall, the findings provide insight into the function of this unique market niche.     

International Portfolio Investment Flows

This article develops a model of international equity portfolio investment flows based on differences in informational endowments between foreign and domestic investors. It is shown that when domestic investors possess a cumulative information advantage over foreign investors about their domestic market, investors tend to purchase foreign assets in periods when the return on foreign assets is high and to sell when the return is low. The implications of the model are tested using data on United States (U.S.) equity portfolio flows.     

Information Discovery in Share Lockups: Evidence from the Split‐Share Structure Reform in China

We document a prominent abnormal stock return of –14% during the [–120, +20] day window around 482 lockup expirations in the split‐share structure reform in China. The abnormal stock returns (selling volumes) are positively (negatively) correlated with firm information transparency and postreform performance improvement, but negatively (positively) related to the level of agency problems, suggesting the existence of information‐based trading during the lockups. We present important evidence that institutional investors, especially mutual funds, possess superior information discovering capabilities than that of individual investors. Our findings confirm the information roles of lockups as a tool to signal firm quality and a commitment device to alleviate agency problems.     

The value of ongoing venture capital investment to newly listed firms

We examine whether the market values continuing venture capital (VC) investor involvement in firms post-IPO. Compared to the US, Australian VC investors exit their investments post-IPO by on-market sales rather than distribution of holdings to their investors. Lockup periods tend to be longer and ownership thresholds for reporting trades lower. We find that the market responds positively to buy transactions, negatively to sell transactions of VC investors and negatively to the resignation of VC directors. These results are consistent with VC investors in the firm having a positive influence and creating value from which the VCs and other shareholders benefit.     

A behavioral analysis of investor diversification

This paper studies the link between individual investors’ portfolio diversification levels and various personal traits that proxy informational advantages and overconfidence. The analysis is based on objective data from the largest Turkish brokerage house tracking 59,951 individual investors’ accounts with a total of 3,248,654 million transactions over the period 2008–2010. Wealthier, highly educated, older investors working in the finance sector and those trading relatively often show higher diversification levels possibly because they are better equipped to obtain and process information. Finance professionals, married investors, and those placing high-volume orders through investment centers show poorer diversification possibly as a reflection of overconfidence. Our analysis reveals important nonlinear effects, implying that the marginal impact of overconfidence on diversification is not uniform across investors but varies according to the investor's information gathering and processing abilities.     

Why do investors discount earnings announced late?

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Holding earnings surprises constant, investors react negatively to delayed earnings announcements. One standard deviation of delay (5 days)...     

How disclosure quality affects the level of information asymmetry

We examine two potential mechanisms through which disclosure quality is expected to reduce information asymmetry: (1) altering the trading incentives of informed and uninformed investors so that there is relatively less trading by privately informed investors, and (2) reducing the likelihood that investors discover and trade on private information. Our results indicate that the negative relation between disclosure quality and information asymmetry is primarily caused by the latter mechanism. While information asymmetry is negatively associated with the quality of the annual report and investor relations activities, it is positively associated with quarterly report disclosure quality. Additionally, we hypothesize and find that that the negative association between disclosure quality and information asymmetry is stronger in settings characterized by higher levels of firm-investor asymmetry.     

Are non‐audit services associated with firm value? Evidence from financial information system‐related services

The purchase of non‐audit services from incumbent auditors has generated considerable attention. Surprisingly, limited empirical evidence exists on the association of non‐audit services with firm value. Focusing on services related to financial information system (FIS), we find that the market value of equity is greater for firms that purchase FIS‐related services from their incumbent auditors relative to firms that do not. The levels of FIS fees are also positively related to firm value after controlling for total other fees, or total other non‐audit fees. Hence, despite the negative perception associated with non‐audit services, investors regard FIS‐related services as value‐adding activities.