货币政策宏观调控框架研究:共识、分歧与展望

不同阶段不同政策目标下,不同货币政策的宏观经济调控效果不同,合理构建货币政策宏观调控框架意义重大。通过对货币政策的"单一型"规则与"混合型"规则选择、货币政策的"降杆杆"与"稳杠杆"权衡等问题进行文献分析,发现我国货币政策宏观调控框架存在混合型规则、预期管理、经济政策协调配合等调控共识,但也存在评价指标单一、缺乏微观主体预期、经济政策交互效应考虑不足等问题,应将货币政策调控评价指标、货币政策预期管理、经济政策交互效应等问题作为主要研究方向和分析重点。     

从经济学角度看微观与宏观成本管理的结合

本文认为,从市场有效到市场失灵的整个过程,可以得到这样启示:企业微观运营受机会主义行为等因素的影响,终将导致大量外部不经济成本的存在,造成社会资源的浪费.现代成本管理要求充分考虑宏观成本管理的作用,使企业的经营策略符合国家的宏观发展战略规划,有效结合微观与宏观成本管理,实现社会资源的帕累托最优化.     

A Macroeconomic Model with Hysteresis in Foreign Trade

The continuous non‐linear macro‐hysteresis loop is approximated by a rhombus shaped path which therefore shows a closer affinity to the genuine concept of hysteresis than conventional techniques via difference equations. This linearized model is applied to implement foreign trade hysteresis in a standard macroeconomic simultaneous equation model demonstrating the persisting consequences of only temporary exogenous shocks on national income, interest rate and the determination of the exchange rate. Since hysteresis in foreign trade is analysed in a macroeconomic framework, the feedback of hysteresis caused by exchange rate variations on the exchange rate itself can be illustrated.     

Central Banks and Macroeconomic Ambidexterity

The financial crisis of 2008 led to questions of whether monetary policy alone was sufficient to stabilise the macroeconomy and the financial system. The result has been an emphasis on macroprudential financial regulation to act in tandem with monetary policy. This article describes the emergence of macroprudential policy, how historical financial crises might have been mitigated had it been in place, and its ambidexterity with monetary policy as twin instruments for macroeconomic stabilisation.     

China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence

China is transitioning towards more inward‐focussed growth, causing adverse changes in the product and financial terms of trade in the advanced economies. At the same time, international financial markets tussle between tightening forces associated with the US recovery on the one hand and unconventional monetary expansion in Europe and Japan on the other. The way these shocks interact is examined in this paper using a global macromodel with national portfolio rebalancing and asset differentiation and a representation of unconventional monetary policy. Results are found to be sensitive to the contributions of productivity and capital accumulation to China's growth. When these are offered in realistic combination, the effects are deflationary in the United States and China, militating against contractionary US monetary policy. Monetary responses in the United States and China then combine with price targeting regimes in the EU and Japan to expand liquidity globally, amplifying impacts on financial markets and the global distribution of real investment.     

Macroeconomic information and stock prices

The paper analyzes the response of stock prices to the announcements of 15 representative macroeconomic variables. Stock prices respond primarily to announcements of monetary variables. Stocks of financial companies are the most sensitive to monetary news. Implicit in the stock price reactions are the market perceptions that the Federal Reserve plays an important role in future macroeconomic developments. The post-October 1982 change in the operating target of the Federal Reserve did not affect the stock price responses substantially, although it did affect the corresponding responses of short-term interest rates.     

Endogenous Cycles and Menu Costs: A Dynamic Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly

We present a dynamic model of price setting in which price adjustments are costly for the monopolist. The general price level changes endogenously due to welfare changes. For the resulting two‐dimensional dynamical system the existence of a continuum of stationary points is proven. Furthermore, simulations show that endogenous cycles of output can occur.     

略论网络舆论及其引导

网络舆论的利远大于弊,其存在有着合理性和必然性。但网络舆论需要正确的引导,才能趋利避害：政府应以“以法治网”为根本,用有效的制度安排来容纳和规范网络舆论的表达;对网民加强公民意识的培养和教育;从技术层面对网络舆论实行有效把关;强化主流传统媒体与网络媒体的舆论互动;在动态中掌握网络舆论引导的主动权。     

宏观经济环境与货币政策的有效性

宏观经济环境是影响货币政策有效性的重要因素之一。双轨制经济是当前我国宏观经济的制度环境,买方市场已经初步形成是当前我国宏观经济的运行环境,通货紧缩是近几年我国宏观经济运行环境的基本状态。总的来看,当前宏观经济环境限制了货币政策有效性的充分发挥。因此,提高货币政策有效性的基本途径是深化改革,以消除转轨时期相对不稳定的经济体制基础对货币政策有效性的不利影响,在此基础上,根据宏观经济环境的变化,合理选择货币政策及其取向。     

Corporate Social Responsibility as Subsidiary Co-Responsibility: A Macroeconomic Perspective

Recent discussion on Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) mainly focuses on two aspects of CSR: from a technical perspective, CSR aims to improve ethical standards in the organizational decision-making process, and should guarantee that management practices are in accordance with commonly accepted standards of behavior. From a political perspective, CSR describes corporate engagement with ecological and social issues that extend beyond the firm’s economic activities. The latter perspective in particular leaves unclear whether such corporate contributions to solve environmental and societal problems should be seen as voluntary additional services or whether corporations bear specific duties in this field. Based on the tenet of subsidiarity derived from Catholic thought, this article emphasizes that the common interpretation of CSR should be extended by a third perspective that addresses corporations as intermediate actors bearing specific subsidiary co-responsibilities in society.     

自组织FPNN在宏观经济预测中的应用

论文针对经济预测通常表现为复杂的非线性这种特性,提出了一种基于自组织过程神经元网络(FPNN)和改进的BP神经网络建立的经济预测模型方法。自组织过程神经元网络(FPNN)由输入层、竞争层和输出层组成。FPNN筛选出对因变量(网络输出)最有影响作用的变量(自变量)之后作为改进的BP算法网络的输入节点,再用进行学习。该模型不仅克服了时间序列预测模型只能进行线性预测的不足,而且还避免了传统神经网络的固有缺陷。以2001年到2004年国内生产总值作为预测分析样本,并对预测结果和实际值进行了比较分析,结果验证了该方法的有效性。     

Opportunistic Disclosures of Earnings Forecasts and Non-GAAP Earnings Measures

When one addresses boycotts, the efforts of the Montgomery bus boycotts to end segregation likely come to mind. However, the moral merits of a boycott are not always so clearly determined and how a company reacts to a boycott can have long lasting repercussions for its public image. In this article, I will examine a number of boycotts including boycotts by the American Family Association of both Ford and Proctor & Gamble based on their advertising venue choices. In a politically and morally charged atmosphere, it can be difficult for companies to determine where their moral obligations lie while at the same time being mindful of the bottom line. I␣suggest a number of guidelines to aid in corporate moral decision making when faced with a boycott.     

A Combination of Self-Reported Data and Social-Related Neural Measures Forecasts Viral Marketing Success on Social Media

Consumers often share product-related content (e.g., advertising), and highly shared advertising has a huge impact on consumer behavior. Despite its apparent effectiveness, prediction of whether such advertising will be highly shared is a poorly understood area of marketing. Advances in brain imaging techniques may allow researchers to forecast aggregate consumer behavior beyond subjective reports. Using neuroimaging techniques, previous research has established models showing that expectations of self-related outcomes (potential for self-enhancement) and the social impact of sharing (potential for social approval) contribute to the likelihood of users sharing non-commercial static content (i.e., text-based health news). However, whether this finding can be applied to forecasting the virality of dynamic commercial stimuli, which is more relevant to interactive marketing (i.e., video ads), remains unknown. Combining brain imaging techniques, cross-validation methods, and real-world data regarding sharing on social media, the present study investigated whether brain data can be used to forecast the viral marketing success of video ads. We used neuroimaging (functional magnetic resonance imaging: fMRI) to measure neural activity during three sets of theory-driven neural measures implicated in value, self, and social (mentalizing) processes while 40 participants viewed video ads that brands had posted on Facebook. Contrary to previous findings regarding value-related virality in non-commercial static content, our results indicate that social-related neural activity contributes significantly to forecasting the virality of dynamic marketing-related content. The model that included both social-related neural measures and subjective intentions to share forecasted viral marketing success better than the model that included only social-related neural measures. The model that included only subjective intention to share did not forecast viral marketing success. Overall, these findings provide a novel connection between neurophysiological measures and real-world dynamic commercial content. Contrary to previous neuroforecasting findings, social-related but not value-related neural measures can significantly improve our ability to predict market-level sharing of video ads.     

不畏浮云遮望眼--2001年宏观经济运行总结和2002年预测

2001年回顾:审慎的"一枝独秀" 2001中国经济,大致可以寻找出四大特点,一是前高后低,四个季度的经济增长一路滑坡,全年经济成长将在7.4%左右;二是负重前行,即中国经济承受着世界经济增长失速的沉重压力;三是热点稀疏,今年除了投资热和外资热之外,消费可谓不温不火;四是紧缩阴影日浓,宏观经济面临重新跌落到通货紧缩中的威胁.     

Macroeconomic policy cooperation and the G20

Has the G20 achieved its goals in macroeconomic cooperation since 2008? The paper organises the G20's efforts under five themes: macroeconomic stimulus, fiscal consolidation, monetary policy, the global financial safety net and global imbalances. The G20 was initially successful in each of these areas, but this success was short‐lived. While the G20 met its goals on macroeconomic stimulus, it has been less successful in reducing deficits and debt. While it was successful in increasing its resources, the global financial safety net remains too small, too fragmented and institutional reform is incomplete. While the G20 succeeded in moving to more market‐determined exchange rates and avoiding competitive devaluations, it struggled to avoid negative spillovers. Despite years of effort, the G20 has made limited progress in reducing global imbalances. Current account imbalances are creeping back to pre‐crisis levels. Public debt remains high and most economies are moving in the wrong direction in correcting imbalances in household savings and debt. The paper concludes that the G20 has done better in some areas than others. But to suggest the G20 is a forum in decline ignores its shift from reactive crisis response to longer‐term structural challenges outside of the pressing need of an immediate crisis.     

Integration of U.S. Macroeconomic Accounts: A Progress Report

This article reviews the results of this joint agency effort to provide complete and integrated U.S. accounts. It discusses the new data prepared as a result of this effort and the proposed work plan to eliminate some of the major differences within the U.S. accounts and between the U.S. accounts and the new international guidelines.JEL Classification E010