石油净进口大国利率与油价对净出口的影响

传统贸易理论在研究影响一国净出口因素时只考虑了汇率和收入水平,本文在此基础上加入了利率和油价因素,并以美、中、日三个石油净进口大国为例进行了实证分析,结果表明利率上升减少投资需求,降低国内物价水平,增强出口商品价格竞争力,使出口增加,进口减少;油价上涨,石油进口支出增加,一国进口总额增加。实证和理论分析结果基本相符,即净出口与利率呈正向关系,与油价呈负向关系。     

要素价格扭曲与经济失衡之间的互动关系研究

劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格扭曲与宏观经济失衡之间存在互动关系.通过建立超越对数生产函数,估算改革开放以来中国劳动力、资本、能源三种生产要素价格的绝对和相对扭曲程度,继而建立VAR模型,考察各内生变量之间的脉冲响应关系.研究表明,要素价格扭曲和宏观经济失衡之间存在相互强化的互动关系.应从调整供给结构、增加政府民生支出、改革要素价格形成机制、提高生产效率等多方面着手,实现宏观经济再平衡.     

高油价困局

传统矿物能源的不可再生性,决定了过度依靠单一类型的自然能源所面临的系统性风险是无法回避的。＂世界经济血液＂的称号体现出石油在世界经济中的价值与地位,而华尔街的一句名言＂千万不要试图预测油价＂,又令其充满了神秘色彩。     

石油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响分析

伴随经济全球化的快速发展,石油价格波动对我国物价水平的影响力越来越大.在分析国内成品油价格波动现状的基础上,研究了国际石油价格波动引发我国物价波动的路径及其对我国物价水平的具体影响,最后提出了相关对策建议.     

经济增长对石油需求及石油价格影响的计量分析

通过两阶段回归模型对石油价格的分析及模拟,定量分析了中国经济增长对石油价格的影响。结果显示,如果中国保持8%的经济增长,世界石油价格到2010年将升高1.70%-2.30%。到2030年世界石油价格将升高7.94%-10.48%。从长远来看,对世界石油价格确有一定影响。从石油使用效率来看,中国比美国低44.28%,假如中国提高到美国的石油使用效率水平,全世界就可节约成本160亿美元。面对未来国际能源发展的新形势和世界石油价格波动冲击,需要世界各国共同努力。重视石油科技的研究与开发利用,提高能源使用效率。     

石油价格对初级产品价格的影响研究

本文分析考察了石油与14种初级品价格的长期互动关系。通过研究本文认为,石油价格与相关初级农产品价格间存在较强的长期均衡性关系,与初级金属品关系次之。然而并不能完全认定近年来石油价格的上升是引发各类初级品价格上涨的主要原因,其中可能存在更为复杂的作用机制。这种互动影响的传递渠道及方式也为干预初级品价格提供了可能。     

国际石油价格波动对我国通货膨胀的影响——基于VAR的经验证据

文章的定性分析表明,既存在支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的理由,也存在削弱这种影响的理由,而VAR经验分析表明,并没有令人信服的经验结果支持国际石油价格波动会对我国通货膨胀产生影响的结论,这种影响在25%的显著性水平上,即使在滞后12期之后,也至多是微弱的.     

Logistics: Price Rises Incurred by High Oil Price

When the oil price grows by 100%, the logistic indus-try will see a price growth of 40%, while the logistics in-dustry a price rise of 35%, which means every price increase of 5% in the oil price will bring along that of 2% in this industry. said Liu Zongsheng, General Manager of Itochu Logistics Co., Ltd., on the seminar Focusing on the eco-nomic consequences of raising oil price, interest rate and deposit reserve ratio, which was held recently.     

The Sensitivity of the General Price Level to Changes in the Price of Crude Oil

There are many direct and indirect effects of changing crude oil prices on the inflation rate, so it is not surprising that there are different views about the resulting effects on the general price level and also on other aspects of the general economy. This study, estimates the direct and indirect effects of oil price changes on the economy-wide rate of inflation, which then has effects on spending and producing decisions. However, in this forum, we do not try to estimate the full indirect effects on the level of economic activity, such as effects on real GDP. JEL Classification E310, E370     

财政支出政策对宏观经济影响的时滞分析

本文在建立财政支出与各宏观经济变量的向量自回归模型基础上,利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解方法,分析财政支出政策的时滞.我们发现,我国财政支出增加对国民产出、民间部门投资和出口影响的时滞都为3个月,对最终消费影响的时滞为2个月;财政支出增加对全社会固定资产投资的影响程度最高,其次为国民产出,而对最终消费和出口的影响程度最低;财政支出增加对国民产出、全社会固定资产投资和出口的影响具有持久性,对最终消费影响的周期为5个月左右.     

The Asymmetric Effects of Macroeconomic Performance on Happiness: Evidence for the EU

An analysis of data from the Eurobarometer finds evidence of the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic performance on happiness. The evidence reveals that the negative effect of an economic recession on happiness can be at least twice the positive effect of economic growth. In short, a single year of recession can undo the happiness gains from years of economic growth. Moreover, while this evidence focuses on a short-run asymmetry, it nonetheless supports the Easterlin paradox of a nil relationship between macroeconomic performance and happiness. The evidence indicates that stable rather than rapid economic growth is a more sensible target for policymakers, because macroeconomic stability can lead to conditions that allow the pursuit of happiness and thus secure greater well-being.     

Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation

This paper uses a multicountry macroeconometric model to estimate the macroeconomic effects of a Chinese yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar. The estimated effects on U.S. output and employment are modest. Positive effects on U.S. output are roughly offset by negative effects from a decrease in Chinese output and an increase in U.S. import prices.     

我国成品油价格形成机制改革研究

目前,我国成品油价格形成机制存在价格调整严重滞后、决策程序不透明等问题,加快成品油价格形成机制改革乃是大势所趋。在梳理我国成品油价格形成机制演变历程的基础上,对其存在的弊端及其相关影响因素进行了分析,进而提出了完善我国成品油价格形成机制的政策建议。     

Illusory Price Increases after the Euro Changeover in Germany: An Expectancy-Consistent Bias

The aim of the present report is to review research demonstrating the role played by expectations for observed illusory price increases after the euro introduction in Germany. In laboratory experiments when participants are asked to estimate price changes in a restaurant following the euro introduction, the price estimates are found to be biased in the direction of the expectation of rising prices. The research also examines the extent to which a similar judgment bias is evident in other areas and how interventions counteract the bias. A further focus of the research is on the underlying process. In this respect the results show that the bias is based on a selective outcome correction process not previously described. Theoretical implications and practical implications for consumer policy issues are highlighted.

Price Font Disfluency: Anchoring Effects on Future Price Expectations

Novel, unique, or otherwise disfluent fonts are often used to draw consumer attention. However, disfluent fonts may also create metacognitive processing challenges. Therefore, consumers may devote more cognitive resources to process disfluent price fonts and will consequently be more likely to accurately recall and anchor on disfluent price displays when forming their future price expectations. Three experiments demonstrate that disfluent sale prices can reduce future price expectations, while disfluent manufacturer-suggested retail prices (MSRPs) can increase future price expectations. Additionally, price recall accuracy mediates the effect. Moderation analysis demonstrates that disfluent MSRP displays are more likely to affect price-conscious and less-involved consumers.     

国际石油价格变动对浙江省轻纺产品出口的影响

石油是重要的能源,对现代经济生活有着巨大影响。在分析研究国际石油价格变动对浙江省轻纺产品出口影响的基础上,提出了相关应对策略。