Scenarios of the joint innovative development of the radio electronic industry and services sector

Various development scenarios for the Russian information and communications sector are considered in the paper, taking into account the prospects of introducing cutting-edge wireless data transfer technologies. The results of scenario calculations, which made it possible to evaluate the effect of the innovative development of the information and communication technology sector on the output of the radio electronic industry are presented.     

New borders: Evidence from the former Soviet Union

New Borders: Evidence from the Former Soviet Union. — We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating a gravity equation on 1987–1996 trade between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded nearly twice as much with each other as with republics in the reform period (1994–1996). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the prereform period (1987–1990). Our results suggest that the bias towards domestic trade in the reform period is primarily a result of tariffs. We also find that past linkages, such as infrastructure, production and consumption chains, and business networks, have limited the reorientation of trade.     

Currency transactions and Customs flows in the foreign economic relations of a region (Based on the example of Rostov oblast)

The paper considers currency and financial transactions in Rostov oblast in the peroid 2000–2010. The change in the composition of bank sector operators is analyzed. Methods are suggested for analyzing the interrelation between currency and Customs operations and commodity flows that allows one to reveal the role of a separate region within the Russian Federation as a transit territory for exported and imported goods in foreign trade supplies of other regions.     

Foreign direct investment and factor prices in U.S. manufacturing

Foreign Direct Investment and Factor Prices in U.S. Manufacturing. —We investigate whether inward foreign direct investment (FDI) can explain part of the increase in relative wages of skilled workers in U.S. manufacturing over the period 1977–1994 by studying the sector bias of the effects of FDI on sector prices and technology. We follow the two-stage mandated-wage approach based on the StolperSamuelson theorem. We find that inward FDI affects the sum of sector prices and productivity depending on the absorptive capacity available in the sector. We also find some evidence that inward FDI has induced a sector bias towards using skilled workers over the period 1977–1994.     

Forecasting the optimal structure of the Russian banking system

The systemic approach is used to substantiate the conclusion that in sustainable banking systems, the number of banks and the structure of the banking sector depend on the amount of the dominant bank’s assets. It is shown that if Sberbank’s share in the Russian banking system’s total asset is 0.26, the number of banks in it should decrease several times and stay within the range of 55–165.     

Investigating Market Structure of the Greek Manufacturing Industry: A Hall-Roeger Approach

This paper investigates the market structure of the Greek manufacturing industry over the period 1984–2007 at the two-digit SIC level. Three models are used to investigate the competitive conditions of the manufacturing industry. The paper investigates factors affecting the markup of the Greek manufacturing industry by estimating two additional models, i.e., the markup cross-sectional model and the markup time-series model, for identifying both sectoral and intertemporal factors. The empirical results indicate that the whole Greek manufacturing industry, as well as each sector of the industry, operates in non-competitive conditions for each year during the period 1984–2007. The findings also support that labor intensity, the sector size, and the number of establishments influence the markup at the sectoral level, while labor intensity, and the growth and the number of establishments affect the markup over time.     

Tendencies towards the spatial concentration of the Russian banking sector

This article analyzes the empirically established peculiarities and tendencies of the spatial development of the Russian banking sector in 2001–2011. On the basis of the statistical data provided by the Bank of Russia and some other banks and their branches (taking into consideration the exterritoriality of the latter), the dynamics of a number of indicators is determined; those indicators characterize the extent and forms of market competition between commercial banks all over the country and in federal districts. The obtained results are compared with the macroeconomic indicators from the corresponding regions.     

The demographics of trade-affected services and manufacturing workers (1987–1990): A comparative analysis

Using input-output data for 1987 and 1990, this study identifies the demographic characteristics of trade-affected workers in U.S. manufacturing and service industries. Trade-affected workers are defined as employees in industries that experienced a change (positive or negative) in net total (direct and indirect) trade-related employment between 1987 and 1990. For the period 1987–1990, three industry categories were examined: (a) industries that experienced an increase in positive net trade-related employment; (b) industries that experienced a decline in positive net trade-related employment; and (c) industries that suffered net trade-related employment losses in both years yet experienced an improvement over the period. The study finds that, while manufacturing industry workers in the most favorably affected industry group (i.e., group “a”) were more likely to be highly skilled (i.e., scientists & engineers), highly educated (i.e., over four years of college education), unionized, married and white males, corresponding service sector workers were predominantly unskilled (laborers), less educated, non-unionized, young (i.e., aged 16–24) and male (black and white). Furthermore, the service sector was associated with greater mean trade-related employment and output gains and lower mean employment and output losses than was the manufacturing sector. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Western Economic Association Internationale 69th Annual Conference, Vancouver, British Columbia.     

Enterprise responses to price and output shocks in transitioning economies: The case of the Czechoslovak machine-building sector

The behavior of a sample of 161 state-owned, Czechoslovak machine-building enterprises for the period 1985–89 is examined by means of simulation techniques based on the estimated dynamic factor demand equations. The simulations of input utilization for 1990–92 indicate that the state-owned firms have been less responsive to market signals and to output changes during the transition period of 1990–92 than they were in 1985–89. This may reflect either a change in decision-making regime at the firm level or the magnitude of changes in prices and output levels that occurred in 1990–92. We also find that the output shocks were much more important for the changes in input utilization during the transition than were input price shocks. The research results reported here are part of a World Bank project on enterprise behavior in transition. The results and conclusions are solely the responsibility of the authors and in no way represent the views of the World Bank or of their respective employers.     

Total capital and economic growth

In contrast to the official estimates of gross private domestic investment and associated capital stocks prepared by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), the author presents estimates of total investment and capital, human and nonhuman, tangible and nontangible, by all sectors of the U.S. economy. Total investment is 3.1 times the BEA estimate in 1929, rising to 4.1 times in 1990. It accounts for almost half of adjusted GDP in the latter year. As hypothesized, real total capital stocks rise at about the same 2.9 percent average annual rate as real gross domestic product 1929–90, 0.1 percentage points more in the total economy and 0.2 points less in the predominant business sector. Increases in nontangible capital (mainly education, training, health, and research and development—“R&D”-) largely explain the growth in total tangible factor (capital) productivity in the whole economy. Nontangible, human capital has grown relatively faster in the business sector than in the entire economy, helping to explain its more rapid productivity advance. The author recommends that when BEA shifts to the U.N. standard system of accounts, it include nontangible and human tangible investments and capital in “satellite” accounts, as well as tangible investments for all sectors in the core accounts. This will greatly facilitate the analysis of economic growth. Presidential Address at the Thirty-Sixth Atlantic Economic Society Conference, October 7–10, 1993, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.     

Dutch disease revisited. Oil discoveries and movements of the real exchange rate when manufacturing is resource-intensive

We study how natural resource booms affect the real exchange rate in a situation where there are input–output linkages between the manufacturing sector and the natural resource sector. An increase in revenues from natural resources could de-industrialize an economy by raising the real exchange rate, rendering the manufacturing sector less competitive. This tendency towards de-industrialization has been called “Dutch disease”. We build a theoretical model showing that a country experiencing discoveries of natural resources, such as oil, is not necessarily bound to experience the Dutch disease. The appreciation of the real exchange rate can be escaped if patterns of specialization shift towards the manufacturing industries that use oil more intensively. In the second part of the paper, we test the model and find support for the claim that Dutch disease effect associated with discoveries of natural resources (namely oil) are dampened in countries that specialize in resource-intensive manufacturing industries.     

Notes And Communications

This communication sketches in headlines long term developments in American and European banking. Contrary to the expectation of both practitioners and theorists in the nineties, has the role of banks in the economy not diminished but increased. This is demonstrated by the long term increase of bank credit as a percentage of GDP (resulting in a stronger growth of M2 and 3 than GDP), a growing contribution of bank sector income to GDP, growing employment (until recently) and a growing share of bank shares in total market capitalisation over the past three decades until 2004–2006. This growing share may have been induced by a comparatively superior performance, supported by a relatively high dividend yield, despite a lower-than-average price-earning ratio. Banks counteracted increased competition and disintermediation tendencies in their traditional lending business by a progressive involvement in capital markets. They developed themselves, in several functions, these markets. For this reason the often used distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems is less meaningful. Capital markets function thanks to banks. Even more because a rapidly growing volume of new, unlisted investment instruments are constructed by banks and traded over their counter. By this development the risk absorbing and intermediating function of banks – being their basic function in the financial system – is also accentuated. The professional capability of leading banks to fulfil this basic function has in the current “sub prime” crisis come under severe criticism.     

Exchange Rate Regimes and Reserve Policy: The Italian Lira, 1883–1911

The three exchange rate regimes adopted by Italy from 1883 up to the eve of World War I — the gold standard (1883–1893), floating rates (1894–1902), and “gold shadowing” (1903–1911)—produced a puzzling result: formal adherence to the gold standard ended in failure while shadowing the gold standard proved very successful. This paper discusses the main policies underlying Italy’s performance particularly focusing on the strategy of reserve accumulation. It presents a cointegration analysis identifying a distinct co-movement between exchange rate, reserves, and banknotes that holds over the three sub-periods of the sample. Given this long-run relationship, the different performance in each regime is explained by the diversity of policy measures, reflected in the different variables adjusting the system in the various regimes. Italy’s variegated experience during the gold standard provides a valuable lesson about current developments in the international scenario, showing the central role of fundamentals and consistent policies.     

The industry origins of Japanese economic growth

This paper presents new data on the sources of growth for the Japanese economy over the period 1960–2000. The principal innovation is the incorporation of detailed information for individual industries, including those involved in the production of computers, communications equipment, and electronic components as information technology equipment. We show that economic growth is dominated by investments and productivity growth in information technology, both for individual industries and the economy as a whole. We also show that the revival of total factor productivity growth accounts for the modest resurgence of the Japanese economy since 1995. J. Japanese Int. Economies 19 (4) (2005) 482–542.     

Employment and effective employment in the Russian economy

This article deals with the problems of measuring and forecasting employment and labor productivity in the Russian economy. A necessity of forming employment calculation indices, which would to a greater degree reflect the real labor costs by industry for 1991–2010, is discovered. A method of calculating alternative (conditional effective) employment is offered.     

Specific Factors and International Monetary Policy Coordination

The consequences of intersectoral factor immobility for optimal monetary policy are examined in a “New Open Economy Macroeconomics” framework. When labor cannot be reallocated between tradable and nontradable goods production, this rigidity generates a welfare loss, which increases as the sectors become more different. When prices are predetermined, the model becomes a monetary “specific factor” model. Intersectoral factor immobility complicates the optimal monetary policy problem by creating a tradeoff between stabilizing tradable and nontradable sector labor. When labor is mobile between sectors, policy coordination can significantly reduce labor volatility. When it is not mobile, coordination results in less volatility in tradable sector labor, but increased nontradable sector labor volatility.     

Two crises. A comparative analysis of the situations in 1998 and 2008–2009

The article compares the dynamics of the leading economic indicators characterizing the situation in Russian economy at the time of the 1998–1999 and 2008–2009 crises. On the basis of monthly and quarterly statistics over these periods, the authors, first, consider the possible application of qualitative and quantitative approaches to the analysis of the crisis phenomena and, second, make an attempt to identify the stages of the Russian economic crisis and assess the possible duration of the economic recession that started in the second half of 2008.     

Business Cycles and FDI: Evidence from German Sectoral Data

Globalization has affected business cycle developments in OECD countries and has increased activities of firms across national borders. This paper analyzes whether these two developments are linked. We use a new firm-level data set on the foreign activities of German firms to test whether foreign activities are affected by business cycle developments. We aggregate the data by the sector of the reporting firm, the sector of the foreign affiliate, and the host country. Data are annual and cover the period 1989–2002. We find that German outward FDI increases in response to positive cyclical developments abroad and in response to a real depreciation of the domestic currency. JEL no. E3, F23     

Specification and estimation of the unemployment-vacancy curve in the period 1956–1979

Summary The aim of this article is to improve the specification of theUV curve to get satisfactory statistical results for the whole post war period up to 1979. This is done by including a dummy structure and the utilisation rate of production capacity. Results are presented for macro-data, data for men and women separately also at a regional level. Moreover, indicators were developed to represent some causes of the increase in unemployment due to market imperfections for the 1970–1979 period. These indicators were used as explanatory variables in a regression to explain the increase of unemployment due to market imperfections in the 1970–1979 period. Ministry of Economic Affairs (Directorate for General Ecomomic Policy The author is indebted to Professor S.K. Kuipers for his helpful remarks. This article has been written à titre personnel.     

Do international shocks affect small wholesalers and retailers?

Previous research has suggested that the smallest firms are those most vulnerable to international competition, as measured by exchange rate fluctuations and import shares. However, that work—and the overwhelming bulk of the empirical literature on determinants of exit or firm survival—dealt entirely with the manufacturing sector of the economy. This paper analyzes annual US data for 1989–2005 for about 50 wholesale and retail sectors to explain small firm exit rates in several employment size categories. The main result is that wholesalers respond negatively to a stronger currency in a manner similar to that of manufacturers, while retailers are generally unaffected.