中国股市投资者非理性行为研究

本文修订了现代收益率分布模型的基本理论假定,在总结前人的成果基础上将其改进成为收益率分布观念模型,进而应用该模型,对中国股票市场中投资者的非理性行为进行实证研究,从一个新的角度加深对股票市场运行规律的认识。     

基于GLW模型的产业关联网络演化机制分析

首先,介绍了GLW模型,它综合了BBV模型与LW模型的特点,即P（K）、P（W）和P（S）从Boltzmann Gibbs分布向Pareto分布逐渐过渡;然后,从统计学角度探讨了现实复杂网络表现出的Levy Stable分布特点,即头端倾向于Boltzmann Gibbs分布,尾端倾向于Pareto分布,并提出可以用Levy Stable分布拟合GLW模型的分布状况;最后,根据中国近年的IO数据构建了ISRN模型,并发现这类加权有向网络的P（W）和P（S）具有Levy Stable分布的特点,因此可以采用GLW模型的演化机制解释新兴产业衍生于传统产业的过程。     

中国股市长期记忆效应的实证研究

股票市场长期记忆效应问题一直是金融经济学家们倍感兴趣的一个研究热点。本文针对中国股票市场中价格指数与个股的日收益序列 ,在已有研究文献主要采用的经典R S分析方法基础上 ,引入修正R S分析与ARFIMA模型进行了实证研究。从研究结果来看 ,2 2个样本序列并不满足传统的正态分布假设 ,序列呈现出尖峰、肥尾、右偏等有偏特征以及独特的自相关与偏自相关结构 ,这些迹象预示着非线性动态系统的存在。而进一步的研究却表明 ,中国股市中代表市场总体的股价指数不存在长期记忆效应 ,而个股收益序列的分布特征存在着较大差异 ,仅少数个股存在长期记忆行为。这一结论明显地有别于以往那些由经典R S分析所得到的研究结果。     

股票市场波动与上市公司整体业绩的关联性

本从理论与实证两个层面分析研究了上市公司整体业绩变化与股票市场波动的关联性，结果显示，我国股票市场的波动与上市公司整体业绩变化不存在正相关关系。化认为，导致我国股票市场剧烈波动的主要原因在于政策干预、投机资金的干扰以及上市公司结构不合理。     

股权分置制度与中国股票市场效率的相关性分析

一直以来，官方和理论界都认为股权分置制度是中国股票市场低效率的根本原因，是中国股市陷于熊市的唯一根源，但是通过对股权分置制度与中国股票市场效率的相关性分析以及实证分析，发现股权分置并不是股票市场陷于熊市的唯一根源，它对中国股票市场效率有一定的影响，但是解决股权分置问题并不能使中国股票市场成为高效率的市场。     

影响国有经济产业分布的经济因素及实证分析

影响国有经济产业分布状况的经济因素主要有两个：一是国有经济本身的性质特点与制度优势;二是社会经济各部门的产业性质和特点。本文通过分析国有经济本身的性质特点、比较优势,结合对社会经济各部门的产业性质及其对产权制度安排的要求的研究,论证了国有经济产业分布的基本模式,并通过实证分析进行了验证。     

动态二元混合模型在量价关系中的应用研究

文章首次引入动态二元混合分布模型,并利用该模型对中国股票市场的量价关系进行了实证研究.研究结论认为:动态二元混合分布模型能在很大程度上捕捉收益波动的持续性特征,并能揭示交易量与收益波动的联动规律性,但同时该模型也存在一定的缺陷.文章对模型存在缺陷的原因进行了分析,并提出修正建议.     

中国金融发展和经济增长关系的实证研究

本文从实证上研究中国金融发展和经济增长之间的关系。由于金融发展主要包括金融中介体发展和股票市场发展两部分, 本文依次研究中国金融中介体发展和经济增长之间的实证关系、中国股票市场发展和经济增长之间的实证关系以及中国金融中介体发展和股票市场发展之间的实证关系。本文的结论是,在中国金融中介体发展和经济增长之间有显著的、很强的正相关关系,这意味着我国金融中介体的发展有可能促进经济增长,同时也意味着金融中介体的发展不能滞后于经济增长;在中国股票市场发展和经济增长之间有不显著的负相关关系,这意味着我国股票市场发展对经济增长的作用是极其有限的, 即使有那么一点点,也是不利的;在中国金融中介体发展和股票市场发展之间有显著的正相关关系,这意味着在现阶段的我国,股票市场的发展并不排斥金融中介体的发展。     

股指波动与经济增长背离关系的实证分析

二十世纪90年代以来中国经济持续高速增长，但日益发展的股票市场却至现出与经济增长背离的走势，从经济预测角度来看二者的背离形成了与世界不同的发展模式。本文采用实证方法从市场和经济效率角度分析这一背离现象，发现股票市场资源配置效率的低下与经济增长的简单再生产性质是导致二者背离的主要原因，并对此提出了相应的改进措施。     

国有经济产业分布影响因素的面板协整模型分析

理论分析认为影响国有经济产业分布状况的经济因素主要有两个,一是国有经济本身的性质特点与制度优势;二是社会经济各部门的产业性质和特点。但在现实的经济运行中,国有经济产业分布问题涉及到包括经济效率和社会公平在内的多种复杂因素,具有明显的不确定性、非线性及非理性特征。利用1999～2010年制造业中20个产业的面板数据,建立面板协整模型,实证检验了自然垄断性、行业外部性、主导性产业、产业溢出效应对中国国有经济产业分布的影响。     

An empirical re-examination of extreme tail behavior: testing the assumptions of the power laws and the generalized Pareto distribution on the financial series

This study investigates whether the power laws and the associated generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) exist in the extreme tail behavior of financial return series. We include 10 series of five major financial categories over the period 1971–2018 for empirical analysis. For the former assumption, we test three representative power-law distributions. For the latter, we employ an innovative bootstrap goodness-of-fit test of GPD modeling. We also discuss the relationship between both assumptions. The empirical outcomes indicate that both assumptions do not necessarily hold for all tail series due to the outlying observations. The rejection of the power laws assumption leads to the rejection of the GPD assumption. This rejection does not promise the non-rejection of power laws either. However, the non-rejection of either assumption does not imply non-rejection of the other assumption. Power-law distribution and exponential distribution outperform log-normal distribution in tail fitting. GPD fits better at the 1% quantile level than at the 5% level. Overall, we need to acknowledge the considerable gap between the goodness-of-fit testing outcomes of both the power laws and GPD assumptions.     

关于分配的若干有争议问题的看法

在研究我国现阶段分配问题时应该重视研究劳动所得,不应把重点放在非劳动收入上,劳动所得可以通过按劳分配获得,也可以通过按要素分配获得。生产要素按贡献参与分配的原则不等于按生产要素分配,生产要素按贡献参与分配原则中的“贡献”是指对使用价值生产的贡献,不能用分配工作的具体形式的某些共同性模糊不同分配方式的根本区别。     

Economic inequality in Spain: the european community household panel dataset

This article uses data from the 1998 European Community Household Panel to study economic inequality in Spain. It reports data on the Spanish distributions of income, labor income, and capital income, and on related features of inequality, such as age, employment status, educational attainment, and marital status. It also reports data on the income mobility of Spanish households, and data on income inequality in other European countries and in the US. We find that income, earnings, and, especially, capital income are very unequally distributed in Spain and that economic inequality in Spain is well above the European average.     

A framework for the decomposition of poverty differences with an application to poverty differences between countries

We propose an Oaxaca-Blinder-like decomposition of poverty differences. The decomposition is based on a parametric model of the income distribution and can be used to decompose differences in poverty rates across countries or years. Poverty differences are decomposed into differences in the underlying distribution of poverty-relevant characteristics and differences in the incidence of poverty conditional on these characteristics. We illustrate our method by comparing levels and patterns of relative poverty in the USA, Great Britain and Germany during the 1990s. Our results suggest that the higher aggregate poverty rates in the USA and in Britain relative to Germany were mostly accounted for by higher poverty rates conditional on characteristics, which were partly offset by a more favourable distribution of poverty-relevant characteristics, in particular higher employment rates.This paper is part of the research programme of the TMR Network ‘Living Standards, Inequality and Taxation’. Financial support from the European Union (Contract #ERBFMRXCT980248), the UK Economic and Social Research Council, the University of Essex, and the Deutsche Forschungsgesellschaft (DFG) is gratefully acknowledged. The data used in this study were made available by Cornell University (Cross-National Equivalent File), the University of Michigan (Panel Study of Income Dynamics), the UK Data Archive (British Household Panel Survey), and the German Institute for Economic Research (German Socio-Economic Panel). Martin Biewen would like to thank the Institute for European Studies and the Department for Policy and Management at Cornell University, in particular Jonas Pontusson, Richard Burkhauser and Dean Lillard, for their hospitality and support. We are also grateful for comments by Bernd Fitzenberger, Joachim Winter, Christoph M. Schmidt, an anonymous referee and seminar participants in Essex, Heidelberg and Mannheim. Last but not least, we thank Nick Cox for providing us with updated versions of his Stata programs for drawing quantile plots.First version received: May 2003/Final version received: December: 2003     

Beta trigonometric distributions

Beta distributions are popular models for economic data. In this paper, six new distributions are introduced which generalize the standard beta distribution. These distributions involve the trigonometric functions, sine and cosine. Expressions are derived for their analytical shapes, nth moments, method of moments estimators, maximum likelihood estimators and the associated Fisher information matrices. These calculations involve several special functions. A numerical study is performed to show the flexility of these distributions as compared to the standard beta distribution. An application to consumer expenditure data is illustrated to show that the proposed distributions are better models to economic data than one based on the standard beta distribution. Possible ways of extending the models are also discussed.     

论马克思按劳分配的层次性及实现途径

在对前人研究进行归纳基础上分析了按劳动力价值分配与按劳分配的内涵,并提出按劳动力价值分配是宏观经济运行层次的分配规律,应纳入按要素分配的范畴,是劳动力要素与其他生产要素结合共同进行生产活动时获得补偿与积累的规律;按劳分配是对具体劳动力的补偿标准,属于按要素贡献率分配的范围,是微观经济活动层次内的一种分配规则。在此基础上对按劳分配实施过程中衡量有效劳动的标准以及按劳分配、按劳动力价值分配及与按要素分配的关系进行了论述。     

如何理解生产决定分配?——与崔向阳商榷

崔向阳认为,马克思的生产决定分配理论中的生产包括两个方面,即生产要素的所有制结构和生产要素的配置方式,前者决定分配的性质,后者决定分配的方式。生产要素的分配,一是指生产要素的分配方式,即资源配置方式;二是指生产要素所有权的分配。这两者共同决定了产品分配的关系,对马克思的生产决定分配理论的这种理解是值得商榷的。     

关于物流配送与连锁经营的问题探析

随着连锁企业的规模扩大,物流配送在连锁企业发展中的关键作用越来越突出。目前,连锁企业物流配送滞后成为制约连锁经营发展的瓶颈,构建科学的物流配送体系是连锁经营进一步发展中急需解决的问题。     

区别对待收入分配领域的正常差距和分配不公

当前收入分配领域存在的主要问题是收入分配不公.收入分配中的正常差距在社会主义市场经济体制下是发展的动力,必须予以承认.对于违反了社会公平原则、损害了经济和社会和谐发展的非正常收入差距,需要政府在广泛听取人民群众呼声的前提下及时制定和修改相关的法律法规,从制度上保证分配正义和公民利益.     

Consumption externalities: a representative consumer model when agents are heterogeneous

We examine a growth model with consumption externalities where agents differ in their initial capital endowment and their reference group. We show under which conditions the aggregate equilibrium with heterogeneous agents replicates that obtained with a representative consumer, despite the fact that different individuals have different consumption levels. Next we consider the implications of the presence of consumption externalities for the long-run distributions of income and wealth. We find that, in a growing economy, “keeping up with the Joneses” results in less inequality than would prevail in an economy with no consumption externalities.