Global GDP shares in the 21st century — An equilibrium approach

Using a 9-region model of the world economy, we investigate the implications of the diffusion of total factor productivity (TFP) for global GDP shares during the 21st century. The nine regions are: Africa, Asia (excluding China, India and Japan), China, Europe, India, Japan, Latin America, North America and Oceania. According to our projections, TFP catch-up at a plausible rate implies that the share of the high-income regions will more than halve by 2050 and almost halve again in the subsequent 50 years. These projected shares are little affected by variations in demographic outcomes, saving behaviour and international capital flows, but are reduced substantially should TFP catch-up be slower.     

Knowledge-independent Invariance Rules for Copula Duration in Dungflies

In dung flies, copula duration decreases, and the proportional rate of sperm transfer increases, as male body size becomes larger. From a marginal value approach to optimal copula duration, we show that these relationships result in the product, , remaining approximately constant across the range of male body size. The expected proportion of a female's eggs fertilized by a copulating male, equivalent to 1 – e^–c·t , is likewise invariant with male body size. (Overbars and refer to the averages over female sizes). We assume that the information or cues a male can perceive about females forms a set of discrete recognition categories, each of which is uniquely recognizable by a male, but within which he cannot discriminate. There are then likely to be different male optima for the product between categories. But the invariance rules still hold within categories, independently of exactly what the recognition categories are, provided that all males perceive the same categories. For example, suppose that males of all sizes categorise females as either 'large', 'medium', or 'small'. Then though the optimal male strategy (product ) for (say) 'large' females may differ from the corresponding optima for the other two categories, it remains constant with male size across all the 'large' females. Further, the product should remain constant for all male sizes if we take the average across all females, or across any subset of recognition categories. We believe that these conclusions have general applicability and implications for optimal foraging under the marginal value theorem, and demonstrates how we can sometimes make predictions (e.g. the relation between copula duration and male body size in dungflies) without determining exactly what a forager 'knows'.     

A GIS-based approach for mapping direct use value of ecosystem services at a county scale: Management implications

A GIS-based approach was designed to spatially estimate direct use value of ecosystem services and to map results for a case study at county scale. The approach highlights the use of GIS to collect data, perform spatial analysis, and map economic values of ecosystem services. Three key steps of spatial valuation for agricultural products, forest products, and tourism services were illustrated in the GIS-based technical framework. We applied this approach to the Tiantai County (1423.8 km²) in Zhejiang province of southeast China. Selected components of natural products and tourism services in the case area were mapped as data layers in GIS, with each layer containing monetary values for every 25 m cell. The total direct use value of ecosystem services was estimated in RMB to be approximately 538 million Yuan in 2005 (Chinese currency, 8.2 Yuan = US$1), of which agricultural products, forest products and tourism services accounted for 65%, 30% and 5%, respectively. The critical areas for management purpose were identified depending on the heterogeneity of direct use services learned from the case study. The spatially explicit measures provide a mechanism for incorporating spatial context into ecosystem services evaluation. Based on the present GIS-based approach and case study, the suggestions and implications for local resources protection and eco-environmental management were extensively discussed. The work was expected to highlight research avenues to advance the ecosystem services framework as an operational basis for regional ecosystem-based management.     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

Monetary valuation of aircraft noise: A hedonic analysis around Amsterdam airport

In densely-populated countries and in particular in large metropolitan areas, the presence of so much human activity causes all sorts of negative externalities, for example traffic noise disturbance. These externalities call for corrective measures by the government. Economists have developed a number of procedures that provide reasonable estimates on the monetary value of some amenities and externalities. In this paper we develop a spatially-explicit hedonic pricing model for house prices in order to quantify the social cost of aircraft noise disturbance in monetary terms. While focusing on aircraft noise around Amsterdam airport in the urban fringe of the Amsterdam region, a key point in our analysis is that we account for background noise. We do this by taking multiple sources of traffic noise (i.e. road, railway and aircraft noise) into account simultaneously and by setting threshold values for all three sources of noise above which sound is generally experienced as nuisance. Based on our regression results we conclude that a higher noise level means ceteris paribus a lower house price. Air traffic has the largest price impact, followed by railway traffic and road traffic. These model outcomes can subsequently be used to estimate the marginal and total benefits of aircraft noise reduction in the studied area around Amsterdam airport. We find a marginal benefit of 1 dB noise reduction of 1459 Euro per house, leading to a total benefit of 1 dB noise reduction of 574 million Euros.     

When sunspots don't matter

Summary We show that a finite, competitive economy isimmune to sunspots if (i) preferences are strictly convex, (ii) the set of feasible allocations is convex, and (iii) the contingent-claims market is perfect. The conditions (i)–(ii) cover some, but not all, economies with nonconvex technologies. Based on an indivisible-good example, we show that even economies with strictly convex preferences and full insurance arenot in general immune from sunspots. We also show that (1) the sufficient conditions (i)–(iii) are not necessary for sunspot immunity and (2)ex-ante efficiency is not necessary for immunity from sunspots.This paper is based on an earlier paper, Indivisibilities in Production, and Sunspot Equilibrium, presented at the 1990 S.E.D.C. Meetings, Minneapolis-St. Paul, June 1990. The research support of NSF Grant SES-9012780, the Center for Analytic Economics, and the Thorne Fund is gratefully acknowledged.     

A transitions model for sustainable mobility

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.     

A characterization of strategic complementarities

I characterize games for which there is an order on strategies such that the game has strategic complementarities. I prove that, with some qualifications, games with a unique equilibrium have complementarities if and only if Cournot best-response dynamics has no cycles; and that all games with multiple equilibria have complementarities. As applications of my results, I show that: (1) generic 2×2 games either have no pure-strategy equilibria, or have complementarities; (2) generic two-player finite ordinal potential games have complementarities.     

Moral Hazard and Private Monitoring

We clarify the role of mixed strategies and public randomization (sunspots) in sustaining near-efficient outcomes in repeated games with private monitoring. We study a finitely repeated game, where the stage game has multiple equilibria and show that mixed strategies can support partial cooperation, but cannot approximate full cooperation even if monitoring is “almost perfect.” Efficiency requires extensive form correlation, where strategies can condition upon a sunspot at the end of each period. For any finite number of repetitions, we approximate the best equilibrium payoff under perfect monitoring, assuming that monitoring is sufficiently accurate and sunspots are available. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C73, D82.     

Sunspots and incomplete financial markets: The general case

Summary This paper examines the effects of extrinsic uncertainty or sunspots on competitive equilibrium when financial markets are incomplete. For the canonical two-period, pure-exchange model with bonds (or so-called nominal assets, yielding fixed overall returns specified in units of account, and including pure inside money), the following result is established: Generically in endowments, if there areS sunspot states in the second period, but only 0<I<S distinct types of bonds, then — corresponding to the inherent deficiency in the financial markets — sunspots will generateD=S–I dimensions of consumption allocation or real (as well as spot price or nominal) indeterminacy.     

Analysis of the major drivers of the ecological footprint using the STIRPAT model and the PLS method—A case study in Henan Province, China

Taking Henan Province of China as an example, we computed and analyzed the ecological footprint (EF) in 1983–2006. The results showed that the EF in Henan Province quadrupled in the 23 years, but its ecological carrying capacity (EC) was rather low and was in a state of slow decline, indicating that Henan's ecological deficit (ED) had become a remarkable social problem. Therefore, the major drivers of the EF's change were analyzed. According to the simulations with STIRPAT model, the major drivers of Henan's EF were human population (P), GDP per capita (A₁), quadratic term of GDP per capita (A₂), percent of economy excluded in the service sector (Ta₁) and percent of urban population (Tb₁). However, these drivers themselves had strong collinearity, which might produce some uncertain impact to the final results. In order to avoid the impact of collinearity, the method of partial least squares (PLS) was used. The results showed that the major drivers of EF were P, A₁, A₂ and Tb₁. Ta₁ was excluded. Compared with the results by the STIRPAT model, which showed that P is the most dominant driver and the effect of the other drivers could almost be ignored, the results by PLS method were considered as more reasonable and acceptable because the impacts of the A (Affluence) and T (Technology) conditions to the regional EF were still too important to be ignored. In addition, the results acquired by both methods showed that the curvilinear relationship between economic development and ecological impact (EF) or the classical EKC hypothesis didn't exist in Henan Province.     

Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia

This paper makes new projections of government social outlays for Australia. The calculations suggest that government social outlays will increase considerably as a percentage of GDP over the next 50 years, by 7.3 per cent of GDP in the base case. This is a greater increase than that found by previous investigators. Over 60 per cent of this increase will occur between 2011 and 2031, the years when the baby boom generation retires. The major contribution to this increase will have come from increased government outlays on social security. Lower rates of net immigration are shown to yield an even larger increase in the percentage of government social outlays in GDP. The paper also considers the disincentive effect of taxation and the effect of in-creasing the age of retirement. However, notwithstanding the trends suggested by the projections, the paper argues that there are a number of reasons to be sanguine about the implications of ageing on the share of government outlays in GDP.     

Methodological Procedure for Estimating Brazilian Quarterly GDP Series

This paper presents a methodology for estimating the Brazilian GDP quarterly series in the period between 1960–1996. Firstly, an Engle–Granger’s static equation is estimated using GDP yearly data and GDP-related variables. The estimated coefficients from this regression are then used to obtain a first estimation of the quarterly GDP, with unavoidable measurement errors. The subsequent step is entirely based on benchmarking models estimated within a state space framework and consists in improving the preliminary GDP estimation in order to both eliminate as much as possible the measurement error and that the sum of the quarterly values matches the annual GDP.

Endogenous price leadership

We consider a linear price setting duopoly game with differentiated products and determine endogenously which of the players will lead and which one will follow. While the follower role is most attractive for each firm, we show that waiting is more risky for the low cost firm so that, consequently, risk dominance considerations, as in Harsanyi and Selten (A General Theory of Equilibrium Selection in Games, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1988), allow the conclusion that only the high cost firm will choose to wait. Hence, the low cost firm will emerge as the endogenous price leader.     

A century of economic growth in Latin America

This paper makes a contribution to the study of economic growth in developing countries by analyzing the six largest Latin American economies over 105 years within a two-equation framework. Confirming previous findings, physical and human capital prove to be key determinants of GDP per head growth. However, a more controversial result is an overall negative conditional correlation between trade openness and GDP per head growth — though openness has a positive link via investment. The evidence also shows that macroeconomic instability has been a drag on long-term growth in the region.     

广东省潜在GDP增长率测算及预测

就广东省潜在GDP增长率进行了测算,使用HP滤波法和生产函数法得到的结果分别为9.1%和8.4%,从生产函数法的计算过程中,认为广东在1978—2012年的经济具有规模报酬不变的特征,并就当前情况作了分析。在对未来预测上,考虑到生产函数的各要素间可能存在相互关系而使用向量自回归进行。并以本轮金融危机的延续时间为变量,分别测算不同情况下未来五年和十年的平均增长率。     

Reducing climate change impacts on agriculture: Global and regional effects of mitigation, 2000–2080

What are the implications for agriculture of mitigating greenhouse gas emissions? By when and by how much are impacts reduced? Where does it matter most? We investigated these questions within the new A2 emission scenario, recently developed at the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis with revised population and gross domestic product projections. Coupling an agro-ecological model to a global food trade model, two distinct sets of climate simulations were analyzed: 1) A non-mitigated scenario, with atmospheric CO₂ concentrations over 800 ppm by 2100; and 2) A mitigation scenario, with CO₂ concentrations stabilized at 550 ppm by 2100. Impacts of climate change on crop yield were evaluated for the period 1990–2080, then used as input for economic analyses. Key trends were computed over the 21st century for food demand, production and trade, focusing on potential monetary (aggregate value added) and human (risk of hunger) impacts. The results from this study suggested that mitigation could positively impact agriculture. With mitigation, global costs of climate change, though relatively small in absolute amounts, were reduced by 75–100%; and the number of additional people at risk of malnutrition was reduced by 80–95%. Significant geographic and temporal differences were found. Regional effects often diverged from global net results, with some regions worse off under mitigation compared to the unmitigated case.     

Forecasting China's GDP growth using dynamic factors and mixed-frequency data

Forecasting GDP growth is important and necessary for Chinese government to set GDP growth target. To fully and efficiently utilize macroeconomic and financial information, this paper attempts to forecast China's GDP growth using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data. The dynamic factor model is first applied to select dynamic predictors among large amount of monthly macroeconomic and daily financial data and then the mixed data sampling regression is applied to forecast quarterly GDP growth based on the selected monthly and daily predictors. Empirical results show that forecasts using dynamic predictors and mixed-frequency data have better accuracy comparing to traditional forecasting methods. Moreover, forecasts with leads and forecast combination can further improve forecast performance.     

Agricultural and monetary shocks before the great depression: A graph-theoretic causal investigation

This paper uses graph-theoretic methods to investigate the causal relationships between agriculture, money, interest rates, prices, and real GDP in 12 countries during the years 1869–1929. We find that agricultural production directly and indirectly causes real GDP in two-thirds of the cases. Monetary shocks also play an important causal role in about half the cases, but unlike agriculture, the causal links are usually indirect through other variables to real GDP. The direct causal link between money and prices is also particularly strong. Between 1869 and 1929, money causes prices in nearly all of the countries in the sample.