美国金融制裁对我国外汇储备风险防控的警示——基于文献研究

金融制裁较其他经济制裁形式具有见效快、效果显著、成本低、易于集体行动等优点,美国凭借超强的经济实力以及美元在国际贸易和金融交易中的核心地位,在对外政策中倾向于使用金融制裁。本文对现有文献进行梳理评述,研究美国实施金融制裁的特点、对被制裁国的负面影响及被制裁国的应对措施,进而研究金融制裁对我国外汇储备风险防控的警示意义。本文提出我国应当加强对金融攻击与制裁的研究,提高风险防范意识;构建我国外汇储备安全评估与预警指标体系;保持应付自如的适度规模外汇储备。     

美对俄经济制裁的法律机制、措施分析及启示

<正>美国的经济制裁和出口管制有成体系的法律制度、分工明确的实施制裁机构,手段多样,制裁对象广泛。我国应加强对外国单边制裁的相关法律制度和措施的研究与应对。自俄乌冲突爆发以来,美国对俄罗斯实施了一系列制裁措施。本文对美国单边经济制裁和出口管制的法律体系及本轮对俄罗斯实施的经济制裁措施进行梳理和分析,并对我国应对外国单边制裁的相关法律制度提出一定的建议。     

金融制裁的手段及金融制裁核心特征

金融制裁作为经济制裁的重要手段之一,已经成为美国实现其对外政策目的的常见工具。就金融制裁实施的手段而言,主要有:冻结或冻结并没收资产;财政制裁;切断美元获取能力和使用美元渠道;禁止全球金融机构与被制裁对象交易;制裁对方银行体系。美国具有发起金融制裁的基本条件,这是当前美国和美元所拥有的国际货币金融体系中心地位所吻合的。也就是说,当前全球金融制裁的核心特征,具有不对称性。     

美国金融制裁机制、国际应对经验及对我国的启示

金融制裁是美国诸多制裁方式中的一种,呈现典型的非对称性特征,有全套成熟的法律法规体系作支撑,美国交叉灵活运用国家制裁、名单制裁、行业制裁和二级制裁,实现其政策目标。在执行机制上,美国财政部通过其下设的海外资产控制办公室和金融犯罪执法网络实施对外金融制裁。根据综合实力不同,国际上应对金融制裁的方式可归纳为阻断、反制和规避,阻断经验对中国有较好的借鉴意义。面对美国可能发起的以金融制裁方式对中国进行遏制和打压,我国应理性看待中国的经济发展现状,主动提前做好风险防范预案,探索中国版的域外管辖和制裁名单管理机制,加强金融基础设施建设和金融对外开放,积极融入世界经济发展体系之中。     

书讯

作者:孟刚著定价:69.00元本书深入研究了制裁合规和反洗钱领域的热点及难点问题,详细介绍了制裁合规和反洗钱的并存交互关系,分析了联合国经济制裁、欧盟经济制裁、美国一级和二级经济制裁的现状和趋势,提出了化解制裁合规风险的路径建议,并在此基础上分析了全球反洗钱监管现状和趋势,解读了FATF反洗钱规则的风险为本原则,提出了我国跨境洗钱风险化解建议以及我国企业海外合规管理框架。     

美国制裁伊朗案例研究

<正>美国制裁伊朗持续时间较长,且对伊朗打击最为沉重的是金融制裁手段,尤其是在2010年至2016年的金融制裁周期,将伊朗排除在国际金融体系之外是致命措施。1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命后,美国开始了对伊朗长达四十多年的制裁。美国对伊朗的制裁在所有美国对外制裁案例中颇为典型,动用了几乎全部的经济金融制裁手段,并形成了一套对伊朗专项制裁法律体系。其中,     

基于美国全球不对称权利的银行内部制裁合规管理

在当前由美国主导、以美元为核心的国际金融体系中,金融制裁成为美国实施长臂管辖的一种“高效率、低成本”的经济制裁措施,它能产生比贸易制裁更大的影响力和破坏力,一些中资银行也因此受到过巨大冲击,影响我国大型中资银行海外分支机构的正常经营甚至是金融安全。本文旨在阐述美国坐享不对称权利下的金融制裁现状,厘清反洗钱和金融制裁微妙关联,总结在内部审计过程中发现的业务操作存在的问题和疏漏,从银行跨境业务操作视角入手,探索通过内部审计方式进一步完善银行制裁合规管理体系治理措施,提高风险防控能力。     

香港国际金融中心地位面临的不利冲击和实际影响

本文首先分析了港版国安法对香港国际金融中心地位的支撑作用,对内提供法律支撑和稳定保障,对外有效应对西方势力干预。其次,分析了特朗普对港口头制裁措施的影响,从贸易视角看取消香港独立关税区地位对美国造成的负面影响更大;从香港联系汇率稳定机制视角看,美国制裁威胁对港元汇率的负面影响不可持续;美方借助SWIFT系统对香港采取金融制裁的可能性相对较小,但不排除会对一些个人、企业和金融机构等采取制裁措施。     

美国次级制裁发展趋势及国外对策

<正>应对次级制裁的国内法律手段包括提起国内诉讼、颁布阻断法案和反制裁法律,非法律手段致力于降低或避免使用美元的各种安排。近年来,次级制裁成为美国政府增强单边经济制裁效应的重要制度措施。美国次级制裁对象从伊朗转向俄罗斯等大国,并与欧盟各国产生了冲突。厘清次级制裁的含义、法理基础,评估国外对策,具有重要的现实意义。     

国际财经北大核心

欧盟宣布再度延长对俄经济制裁 欧盟12月21日宣布,将对俄罗斯的经济制裁再次延长半年至明年7月31日。欧盟在一份声明中表示,鉴于新明斯克协议在今年年底的规定期限内无法得到全面落实,欧盟决定延长对俄制裁,并将继续评估协议履行的进展情况。声明指出,欧盟自去年7月31日因乌克兰问题对俄罗斯实施经济制裁,有效期一年。去年9月,欧盟加强了制裁力度,将范围扩大到金融、能源、防务和军民两用产品等方面。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.