互联网金融发展能解决我国中小企业融资困境吗？——基于现金-现金流敏感性模型的检验

目前,传统金融渠道已经不足以解决中小企业面临的融资难问题,传统金融机构门槛较高,给中小企业带来了很大的融资压力,而互联网金融的出现和发展给中小企业融资带来了新的突破口。本文从理论和实证两个角度分析互联网金融与中小企业融资约束之间的关系,用主成分分析法计算互联网发展水平的综合指标,并构建现金-现金流敏感性模型,以检验互联网金融发展对中小企业融资的作用。实证结果表明,互联网金融的发展能在一定程度上缓解中小企业融资约束。     

金融科技对中小企业融资约束影响及传导机制研究

文章以2011-2019年深市中小企业板上市公司为研究样本,构建面板联立方程模型,引入信息不对称和交易成本两个中介变量,使用3SLS方法实证分析了金融科技对中小企业融资约束的影响及传导机制。研究发现：金融科技可以通过缓解信息不对称、降低交易成本有效缓解中小企业融资约束,信息不对称与交易成本均是金融科技影响中小企业融资约束的重要传导变量;通过异质性分析后发现,东部地区金融科技的发展对中小企业融资约束的缓解作用更强,第二产业中金融科技缓解中小企业融资约束的作用优于第一、三产业。     

数字普惠金融对科技型中小企业融资约束的缓解作用研究

数字普惠金融的快速应用，为缓解我国科技型中小企业融资约束问题带来新契机。本文将2012-2021年科技型中小企业数据作为样本，通过实证检验探究数字普惠金融对其融资约束的作用机制。研究发现，数字普惠金融可以有效缓解科技型中小企业的融资约束问题，且其缓解作用存在“衰退期>成长期>成熟期”的阶段异质性；此外，数字普惠金融还能通过降低融资成本来纾解其融资约束。基于此，本文提出应从坚持发展数字普惠金融、提高借贷双方信息透明度和实施差异化支持政策三个方面来缓解科技型中小企业融资约束。     

银行数字普惠金融、银行竞争与企业融资约束

基于中国31个省份的相关数据,使用变异系数法构建银行数字普惠金融指数,以中小企业板上市公司为研究样本,讨论竞争程度变化时银行数字普惠金融对中小企业融资约束的影响及变化.研究发现:银行数字普惠金融发展有利于缓解中小企业融资约束,当银行竞争程度较高时,缓解作用更加明显.同时,相对于民营中小企业,银行数字普惠金融发展对国有中小企业融资约束的缓解作用更加明显,反映了当前银行在发展数字普惠金融时存在选择偏向问题.但随着银行竞争的提高,这种问题有所缓解.     

中小企业数字化转型、供应链金融发展与融资约束缓解

在产业数字化大背景下,中小企业数字化转型能否以及如何缓解融资约束成为研究的热点。本文以2013—2021年深证中小板和创业板上市公司数据为样本,实证检验中小企业数字化转型对融资约束的影响及作用路径。研究发现：（1）中小企业数字化转型能缓解其面临的融资约束。（2）促进供应链金融发展是中小企业数字化转型缓解融资约束的重要路径。（3）异质性分析发现：数字化转型通过供应链金融缓解融资约束的路径主要出现在民营企业、供应链上下游集中度较高的企业、制造业企业、南方地区企业、数字金融发展水平较低地区企业中。本文对促进中小企业数字化转型以及推动数字供应链金融发展进而缓解其融资约束具有一定启示。     

金融发展、融资约束与现金—现金流敏感性

本文应用Almeida(2004)提出的融资约束模型,以我国A股上市公司2002—2006年期间5702个样本公司为研究样本,对金融发展、融资约束与现金—现金流敏感性三者之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究发现:我国企业普遍存在融资约束问题,现金—现金流敏感性高,民营企业和中小企业的现金—现金流敏感性高于国有企业与大型企业;金融发展能有效缓解企业的融资约束问题,降低现金—现金流敏感性,但民营企业与国有企业、中小企业与大型企业在金融发展对融资约束的缓解效应和金融发展对现金—现金流的影响方面存在显著的差异。     

内部控制、供应链金融与中小企业融资约束——基于创业板上市公司的经验证据

中小企业融资难一直是政界和学术界所关注的热点问题,而内部控制和供应链金融是缓解中小企业融资约束难题的有效途径。本文利用创业板上市公司2012—2016年的数据,运用现金-现金流敏感性模型,在研究供应链金融与融资约束二者关系的基础上,进一步探究不同内部控制下供应链金融对中小企业融资约束的缓解程度。研究发现,高质量的内部控制、供应链金融均可缓解中小企业面临的融资约束,且供应链金融对内部控制质量低的中小企业融资约束缓解程度更明显,即供应链金融与高质量的内部控制在缓解中小企业融资约束上具有替代效应。在此基础上,对金融机构、政府部门与中小企业自身提出相应的对策建议。     

数字普惠金融缓解中小企业融资约束了吗？——基于金融市场化进程的实证检验

基于中国金融市场化进程,以深沪A股上市公司样本数据,利用现金——现金流敏感性模型探究数字普惠金融对中小企业融资约束的影响。研究发现,数字普惠金融能够显著的缓解中小企业融资约束;但对不同类型企业的影响存在异质性,相较于大型企业和国有企业,数字普惠金融对民营和中小企业融资约束的缓解作用更显著;进一步研究发现,金融市场化发展的不同阶段会影响数字普惠金融作用于中小企业融资约束。政策含义是：在推动数字金融发展以缓解企业融资约束的同时,应当注重金融市场化的影响。     

金融生态环境与企业融资约束——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文实证检验了金融生态环境对于企业融资约束的影响及其作用机制,研究发现:(1)良好的金融生态环境有助于缓解企业融资约束,而且政府治理、经济基础、金融发展以及制度文化等构成金融生态环境的四个要素都发挥了积极影响。(2)相比而言,中小企业以及民营企业面临着显著更高的融资约束程度,而金融生态环境的优化可有效缓解这两类企业的融资约束。(3)良好的金融生态环境缓解企业融资约束的作用机制在于,它推动融资约束企业获得了更多的商业信用和银行贷款来纾困。本文的研究结果表明,在我国构建良好的金融生态环境有助于缓解中小企业与民营企业的"融资难"问题,增进金融资源配置效率。     

审计意见、供应链金融与中小企业融资约束——来自创业板上市公司的经验证据

中小企业融资困难是企业、政府和学术界关注的焦点问题。本文在研究审计意见和供应链金融缓解创业板融资约束的基础上,创设性地探究了不同审计意见下供应链金融缓解创业板融资约束的差异。研究结果表明,创业板上市公司存在融资约束现象,好的审计意见、供应链金融均能缓解其融资约束,并且供应链金融缓解融资约束强度与审计意见质量负相关。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.