货币供应量与房价波动的关系：基于VAR模型的实证分析与国际经验北大核心SSCI

近来,两件事件为大家所热议:一是中国高速增长的货币供应,二是快速上涨的房价。本文从货币供应量对房价波动影响的作用机制切入,采用向量自回归模型研究货币供应量与长期贷款利率变动对房价所产生的动态影响。研究表明,货币供应量变化对房价产生长期的持续正向影响,货币供应量的增加会导致房价上涨。新国五条及后续的房地产行业调控政策极为必要。     

货币供应量与房价波动的关系:基于VAR模型的实证分析与国际经验

近来,两件事件为大家所热议:一是中国高速增长的货币供应,二是快速上涨的房价.本文从货币供应量对房价波动影响的作用机制切入,采用向量自回归模型研究货币供应量与长期贷款利率变动对房价所产生的动态影响.研究表明,货币供应量变化对房价产生长期的持续正向影响,货币供应量的增加会导致房价上涨.新国五条及后续的房地产行业调控政策极为必要.     

调控后的房地产市场将会怎样

如今,一、二线城市房价迅速上涨的阶段已经过去,未来两三年将高位盘整.而三、四线城市在承接了一定的溢出效应后,又将回到噩梦般的过去. 10月初,北京、天津、苏州、成都等城市先后发布楼市调控政策,主要措施是限购限贷.此次政策的导向很明确:稳定房价,确保市场不出现系统性风险,三、四线城市去库存的同时防止房价进一步狂涨.     

房地产价格上涨成因和对策

2005年北京房价涨幅接近20%,今年第一季度北京市房价同比涨幅14.8%;2005年深圳市商品房价格为7659.18元/平方米,同比上涨17.28%,一季度深圳特区内商品住宅价格上涨25.63%;2005年广州房价上涨20%,2006年第一季度房价再涨20%.一些二线城市如武汉、重庆的房价也水涨船高,甚至很少被关注的三线城市,房价也在创下新高.即使在被宏观调控影响最严重的上海和杭州,近期也出现了房价微幅上探的趋势.全国房价涨声一片.特别从2006年开始,全国房价加速上扬.     

货币政策能盯住资产价格吗?——来自中国房地产市场的证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文基于BEKK模型和GARCH均值方程模型分析了房地产价格、货币供应量与经济增长的波动相关性以及它们的各种波动对经济增长率的影响。研究发现:房价的波动以及房价与货币供应量的联动对GDP增长速度有显著影响,会导致GDP增长率的下降;但房价的波动对经济增长的波动没有显著影响,而且货币供应量与房价的联动变化非常剧烈,房价与经济增长的联动对经济增长的波动影响也不显著。这说明应该控制房价波动,但是目前中央银行没有必要动用货币政策去直接干预房地产价格。     

外资地产转战二线城市

经历了10余年的商品房开发，北京、上海等大城市已经进入增量市场同质化产品的激烈竞争阶段。同时，自2003年起，中央政府宏观调控直逼房价持续飙升的热点城市楼市命门。但是，这些新措施似乎对于二线城市影响不大。于是，一些外资地产大鳄的眼光从炙手可热的大城市转移至二线城市。     

风险网络视角下中国城市间房价波动溢出效应研究

本文从风险网络视角出发,以我国69个大中城市的房价波动率为研究对象,运用LASSO-VAR模型构建城市间房价波动溢出网络,在此基础上考察房价波动总体溢出和方向性溢出特征,分析不同等级、不同区域城市间房价波动溢出效应,并探讨城市间强房价波动溢出结构。研究发现:第一,我国城市间房价波动溢出效应显著存在,并且各城市房价波动溢出水平的变化范围大于溢入水平。同时,房价波动溢出水平较高的城市,其溢入水平也普遍较高;溢出水平较低的城市,其溢入水平差异较大。第二,一二三线城市的房价波动溢出水平依次降低,而且一线对二三线、二线对三线城市的溢出水平均高于反方向溢出,不同等级城市的房价关联具有显著的非对称性。第三,东部城市的房价波动溢出水平最高、溢入水平最低,西部城市正好相反。此外,同区域城市间房价波动溢出强度不一定大于跨区域溢出强度。第四,我国城市间强房价波动溢出网络具有显著的"无标度特性"和时变特征,东部城市、二线城市具有较强的强房价波动溢出能力,而且随着时间推移,二线城市强房价波动溢出能力不断增强。     

国库库存纳入货币统计口径的可行性分析

货币供应量是我国货币政策的中介目标,目前我国货币供应量调控成本巨大,调控目标越来越难以实现,一些经济学家提出扩大货币统计口径的范围,给出了M3、M4等货币供应量指标,以引起货币当局对全社会资金的重视。与此同时,我国国库库存余额逐年加大,季节性波动明显,国库库存变动对与货币供应量和宏观经济的影响越来越大,在货币政策操作中需要密切关注国库库存的运行变化。本文首先描述了我国国库库存与货币供应量的特征,并分析了两者关系;接着探讨了将国库库存纳入货币统计口径的理论依据;然后利用近十年的数据检验将国库库存纳入货币统计口径后的实际效应;最后得出:货币当局将国库库存变量纳入中介目标监控体系,将有助于提高货币政策的有效性,并在结论的基础上给出相应的政策建议。     

政策比GDP更重要

2006年房价上涨过快成为人们关注的热点。两年前只有上海、杭州少数城市房价涨幅较快，到2005年和2006年，不仅北京、深圳房价高涨，还带动了一批二线城市（厦门、福州、大连）房价的快速上扬。     

加码的房地产调控政策效应有多大

当前的房地产调控现状可以用8个字来概括:层层加码,效果不彰. 2015年,在去库存政策的推动下,一、二线城市的房价大幅上涨,并且形成轮动效应.深圳、北京等一线城市率先上涨,南京、苏州、合肥、厦门等二线城市紧随其后,房价迭创新高,面对近乎"疯狂"的房地产市场,2016年9月底开始,在中央精神指导下,南京、苏州、杭州、北京、上海等16个城市,出台史上最严限购限贷新政.这一轮政治色彩浓重的严厉调控,试图让众多城市的房地产进入高位盘整期甚至是下行周期.2017年3月17日,北京更是推出了堪称史上最严的"3·17新政",该政策恢复了之前认房又认贷的模式,居民家庭在京已有1套房且无贷款记录的,购买普通自住房首付比例不低于60%;暂停发放贷款期限25年(不含25年)以上的个人住房贷款(含公积金贷款).北京"3·17新政"推出后,石家庄、郑州、广州等地也相继出台调控新政.各地政府严厉调控政策的相继出台,一定程度上反映了国家稳定房价、抑制房价过快上涨的决心.     

经济适用房政策何去何从

我国经济适用房政策推出之初,明确提出经济适用房是多层次城镇住房供应体系的主体,旨在改善中低收入家庭住房条件。但随着该项政策的深入实施,其政策缺陷和管理漏洞逐渐显露,并引发各方是否要取消经济适用房的争论。为此,中国人民银行福州市中心支行于近期就经济适用房政策的实施情况开展了专题调研。调查结果表明,经济适用房政策存在难以根除的痼疾,其实施效果与政策初衷存在较大差距,无法实现预期目的。据此他们认为,应该取消经济适用房政策,同时进行更具公平与效率的制度安排,以“人人有房住,而不是人人有房产”为目标,实行以租赁住房补贴政策为主的住房保障制度。     

Housing tenure choice

This article revisits the microeconomics of housing tenure choice. It asks, How does a rational consumer make housing tenure decisions? The article builds on earlier papers on the subject in two ways. First, it brings together all relevant components of the portfolio decision in a single and coherent analytical framework. Second, it presents numerical analysis with carefully chosen national data and post-1986 tax reform tax provisions. The conclusion is that occupancy required for ownership to be rational is probably somewhat longer than it was during the 1970s and early 1980s, and is probably longer than many economists suspect. It seems apparent from the numerical analysis that substantial segments of the U.S. population should not be owner-occupiers regardless of anticipated occupancy.     

住房的变迁

据父亲讲,爷爷是解放前参加“翻身团”离开家乡到部队的。爷爷行二．离家前和自己的大哥一家合住三间土屋,一家一间半房。     

Stimulating Housing Markets

We study temporary fiscal stimulus designed to support distressed housing markets by inducing demand from buyers in the private market. Using difference-in-differences and regression kink research designs, we find that the First-Time Homebuyer Credit increased home sales by 490,000 (9.8%), median home prices by $2,400 (1.1%) per standard deviation increase in program exposure, and the transition rate into homeownership by 53%. The policy response did not reverse immediately. Instead, demand comes from several years in the future: induced buyers were three years younger in 2009 than typical first-time buyers. The program's market-stabilizing benefits likely exceeded its direct stimulus effects.     

住房公积金制度改制为政策性住房金融机构的设想

住房公积金管理中心具有政策性住房金融机构的雏形。但住房公积金制度由于设计的制度性缺陷,无法承担政策性住房金融机构的功能。因此,住房公积金制度改制为政策性住房金融机构有其必要性。目前,构建政策性住房金融机构可以从以下几个方面入手:建立以政策性住房金融机构为主体的组织体系,形成完善的住房资金组织系统,构建完善的内外监管体系,发展多种金融工具,完善住房金融的风险分担与化解机制等。     

Understanding Housing Market Volatility

The Campbell–Shiller present value formula implies a factor structure for the price–rent ratio of housing market. Using a dynamic factor model, we decompose the price–rent ratios of 23 major housing markets into a national factor and independent local factors, and we link these factors to the economic fundamentals of the housing markets. We find that a large fraction of housing market volatility is local and that the national factor has become more important than local factors in driving housing market volatility since 1999, consistent with the findings in Del Negro and Otrok (2007). The local volatilities mostly are due to time variations of idiosyncratic housing market risk premia, not local growth. At the aggregate level, the growth and interest rate factors jointly account for less than half of the total variation in the price–rent ratio. The rest is due to the aggregate housing market risk premium and a pricing error. We find evidence that the pricing error is related to money illusion, especially at the onset of the recent housing market bubble. The rapid rise in housing prices prior to the 2008 financial crisis was accompanied by both a large increase in the pricing error and a large decrease in the housing market risk premium.     

放低身段的高端豪宅

在环渤海湾的五大城市中,这一有着高贵基因的名仕系产品,或因某种不可控的市场因素,不得不放低身段改走刚需路线。在金地集团的规划中,被归为高端产品系列的名仕系产品,就像一个出身豪门的富家小姐,不但其外表需要体现所谓的新富阶层的品相、品位、精致和高端,内里也需要真才实学以及极高的修养、气质。不过,现实往往没有预想来得那么完美。     

A Reexamination of Housing Price and Household Consumption in China: The Dual Role of Housing Consumption and Housing Investment

It is important to investigate the correlation between housing price and household consumption to gain an understanding of the behavior of the economy and effectively handle the consequences of economic development. In the last two decades, the accumulation of housing wealth by Chinese households has not been effectively transmitted to their final consumption. We discovered that the sustained increase in household wealth and housing-ownership rate in China has been accompanied by a decrease in consumption rate. We also identified a negative correlation between housing price and household consumption for both the homeowners who own one housing unit and those who own two units of housing. We investigated this phenomenon in China both theoretically and empirically by capturing the dual nature of housing as a consumption good and an investment vehicle. We found that the demand for second housing units is motivated by increasing housing consumption demand rather than pure investment needs. To explain the mechanisms that drive household-consumption behavior, we also explored the effects on household consumption of China’s educational system, marriage market and ageing society, as well as future housing-market uncertainty. The implications of government intervention in the housing market are discussed.