利润波动性与衍生工具使用:基于国有上市公司的实证研究

基于756家国有上市公司2012-2015年的年度数据,本文实证检验了衍生工具使用对利润波动性的影响。研究结果表明:(1)衍生工具使用显著降低利润波动性;(2)应计项目是衍生工具降低利润波动性的中介变量,且可操控性应计项目的中介效应显著,表明公司使用衍生工具进行利润平滑,而现金流的中介效应不显著;(3)衍生工具种类与经济复杂性影响利润平滑效果;(4)2014年7月1日实施的CAS39号公允价值计量准则显著削弱了衍生工具的利润平滑效果。本文首次明确了衍生工具影响利润波动性的作用机制,并发现了公允价值计量准则对于规范衍生工具使用的积极效果。     

我国上市公司盈余管理时间选择的实证研究

本文研究了我国上市公司在不同季度进行盈余管理的时间选择行为。我们首先采用可操控性应计利润来识别上市公司中期报告中的盈余管理行为,然后进一步通过考察季度间盈余反转来识别。研究结果表明,我国上市公司虽在各个季度都存在盈余管理行为,但第四季度利润中包含了比其他季度更多的盈余管理行为。特别的,巨额冲销的公司在第四季度进行盈余管理调低利润,前三季度表现欠佳而年末好转的公司在第四季度通过盈余管理调高利润。     

独立董事监督力与盈余稳健性——基于中国上市公司的实证研究

本文采用规模、能力、意愿、环境四个维度衡量独立董事监督力,利用A股上市公司2002—2004年的数据,通过因子分析、通径分析等方法实证检验了独立董事监督力对盈余稳健性的影响,发现独立董事监督力对盈余稳健性有显著正向影响,且这种影响随公司治理的改善而增强;独立董事的履职环境对盈余稳健性的影响最大,其次是人数规模和会计专业能力,薪酬和声誉的影响则相对最小。     

新三板公司盈余质量研究

本文从制度差异出发,讨论了新三板挂牌公司和创业板上市公司会计信息质量的差异。研究发现新三板公司和创业板公司在盈余管理方面呈现不同的特征,新三板公司向上盈余管理的水平显著高于创业板上市公司。我们发现新三板特有的制度因素对新三板公司的利润质量有显著影响,新三板市场中创新层公司、申请IPO的公司、设立独立董事的公司、采用做市商交易的公司、有股权投资和风险投资的公司利润质量更高。     

Non-GAAP Earnings Disclosures on the Face of the Income Statement by UK Firms: The Effect on Market Liquidity

This study benefits by a special feature of the UK information environment which allows UK firms to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement to examine two interrelated questions. First, we ask whether the decision to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement is related to the firm's financial performance and corporate governance characteristics, and second, we investigate the effect of this disclosure decision on market liquidity. Using a dataset of 1227 hand-collected firm-year observations during the period 2006–2013, we show that better governed firms and firms with weaker financial performance are more likely to disclose non-GAAP earnings. Our evidence also suggests that this disclosure is associated with increased levels of market liquidity and the results hold after controlling for self-selection bias. We conclude that firms' decision to disclose non-GAAP earnings on the face of the income statement is more consistent with the incentive to provide information than to mislead the market.     

中国上市公司收益透明度实证研究

本文运用收益激进度和收益平滑度这两项指标 ,对 2 0 0 0年 12月 31日前在沪深两市上市的公司从 1994年到 2 0 0 2年的收益透明度变化趋势进行了系统的实证分析。分析结果表明 :A股上市公司从 1994到 2 0 0 2年收益透明度的总体趋势是上升的 ,只是在 1997年附近和 2 0 0 0年附近出现偏离情况 (即略为下降 )。论文还对我国上市公司IPO前后收益透明度 ,分行业以及分股票类型的收益透明度进行了分析 ,并完成了各种稳健性检验。     

上市公司非正常担保问题的实证研究

本文研究了上市公司的非正常担保行为的动机和效果。非正常担保是指上市公司超过自身能力范围之外的担保,包括过度担保、违规担保和连续担保。结果表明,资产负债率更高的公司更有可能参与非正常担保。非正常担保带来了显著的负面效果,它导致公司绩效下降、代理成本上升以及公司投资水平降低。本文对上市公司担保行为的监管具有一定的启示。     

美国寿险上市公司衍生金融工具应用效应的实证研究

衍生金融产品价格并非标的金融资产价格的一元线性函数,因而使用衍生产品最终是否能够起到风险管理之目的虽倾向于正面但尚存争论.国际上现有研究基本都从讨论企业使用衍生品的动机和影响因素出发,间接推测衍生品使用对企业的影响.本文以美国寿险上市公司为研究对象,研究衍生品使用对寿险公司业绩的直接效应,运用Panel data模型实证检验的结果表明衍生品运用之于寿险公司业绩存在明显正面效应,从而为中国衍生产品市场推出之后放开对寿险企业的投资准入提供了正面的实证依据.     

Strategic Conservative Earnings Management of Technology Firms: Evidence from the IPO Market

In this paper, we investigate the conservative earnings management strategies of technology firms in the IPO market. We hypothesize that technology IPOs, due to their fewer tangible assets, more information asymmetry, and higher uncertainties of future cash flows, tend to have higher litigation risk. At equilibrium, technology firms are more motivated to strategically employ conservative earnings management during the IPO process, to mitigate their higher litigation risk. Using a sample of U.S. IPOs, we find that technology IPOs, on average, involve significantly more conservative earnings management, especially during the bubble periods. Our results also show that the conservative earnings management strategies of technology firms tends to have a greater impact on their underpricing than for non‐tech firms, and thus effectively reduce their risk of being a target in the securities class action lawsuits.     

The Informational Role of Short Sellers: The Evidence from Short Sellers’ Reports on US‐Listed Chinese Firms

Using US‐listed Chinese firms as the setting, this paper studies a novel channel through which investors can acquire information about firms’ financial reporting quality, that is, the reports published voluntarily by short sellers. I find that short sellers tend to target firms that have financial reporting red flags and that exhibit ‘good’ operating performance and stock valuations. Targeted firms experience an average three‐day cumulative abnormal return (CAR) of ?6.4%, and ?13.6% for initial coverage of the firm, and the CARs are more negative when the reports allege more severe misconduct of the firms. Non‐targeted firms also experience losses in value following short seller reports, especially when they hire the same non‐Big 4 auditors as targeted firms and when their earnings quality is poor. In comparison, analysts fail to perform proper due diligence and are much less effective than short sellers in exposing misreporting risk in Chinese firms.     

关联交易对上市公司盈余质量的影响分析——基于沪市A股上市公司的经验研究

随着国内资本市场的发展,关联交易的规模也在不断扩大,表现出交易频率高、涉及金额大的特点。关联交易具有正反两面的效应,即既可以降低交易成本、提高经营效率,又可以成为上市公司盈余管理的手段。本文主要从盈余动机的角度出发,以近三年沪市A股上市公司为研究样本,研究结果表明,我国上市公司的关联交易规模呈逐年上升趋势,且存在明显配股动机。关联交易会对盈余质量产生显著影响,且这种影响随关联交易规模的扩大表现出先上升后下降的的趋势。     

Non‐GAAP Earnings Disclosure in Loss Firms

This study examines the incremental information in loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings disclosures relative to GAAP earnings. Using a large sample obtained through textual analysis and hand‐collection, we posit and find that loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings exclusions offset the low informativeness of GAAP losses for forecasting and valuation. Loss firms’ non‐GAAP earnings are highly predictive of future performance and are valued by investors, while the expenses excluded from GAAP earnings are not. Additional tests suggest that loss firms disclosing non‐GAAP profits have significantly better future performance than GAAP‐only loss firms and are not overvalued by investors. Comparing non‐GAAP earnings of profitable firms to those of loss firms, we find that loss firms’ non‐GAAP metrics are significantly more predictive and less strategic. We conclude that non‐GAAP earnings disclosures are particularly informative about loss firms and help investors disaggregate losses into components that have differential implications for forecasting and valuation.     

不同行业内公司之间资本结构差异研究——以中国上市公司为例

本文对不同行业内公司之间的资本结构差异情况以及产生这些差异的原因进行了一定的探讨。研究表明,产品市场竞争、代理问题、发展机会、资产流动性等行业特征以及行业内公司特征存在的极大差异是造成行业内公司之间资本结构差异的主要原因。     

The Value of Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts

Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.     

Zombie Board: Board Tenure and Firm Performance

We show that board tenure exhibits an inverted U‐shaped relation with firm value and accounting performance. The quality of corporate decisions, such as M&A, financial reporting quality, and CEO compensation, also has a quadratic relation with board tenure. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that directors’ on‐the‐job learning improves firm value up to a threshold, at which point entrenchment dominates and firm performance suffers. To address endogeneity concerns, we use a sample of firms in which an outside director suffered a sudden death, and find that sudden deaths that move board tenure away from (toward) the empirically observed optimum level in the cross‐section are associated with negative (positive) announcement returns. The quality of corporate decisions also follows an inverted U‐shaped pattern in a sample of firms affected by the death of a director.     

Investor and Analyst Reactions to Earnings Announcements of Related Firms: An Empirical Analysis

In this article I examine the response of investors and analysts of nonannouncing firms to the earnings report of the first announcers in the industry. The error in the earnings forecast of the first announcer is found to be informative about the errors in the contemporaneous earnings forecasts of subsequent announcers in the industry. However, investors and analysts do not appear to fully incorporate the information from the first announcers' news in their revised earnings expectations for subsequent announcers. This apparent underreaction to the first announcers' news leads to predictable stock returns for subsequent announcers in the days following the first announcement. Results of this study can be seen as further evidence of investor and analyst underreaction to publicly available information.     

Political Incentives to Suppress Negative Information: Evidence from Chinese Listed Firms

This paper tests the proposition that politicians and their affiliated firms (i.e., firms operating in their province) temporarily suppress negative information in response to political incentives. We examine the stock price behavior of Chinese listed firms around two visible political events—meetings of the National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party and promotions of high‐level provincial politicians—that are expected to asymmetrically increase the costs of releasing bad news. The costs create an incentive for local politicians and their affiliated firms to temporarily restrict the flow of negative information about the companies. The result will be fewer stock price crashes for the affiliated firms during these event windows, followed by an increase in crashes after the event. Consistent with these predictions, we find that the affiliated firms experience a reduction (an increase) in negative stock return skewness before (after) the event. These effects are strongest in the three‐month period directly preceding the event, among firms that are more politically connected, and when the province is dominated by faction politics and cronyism. Additional tests document a significant reduction in published newspaper articles about affected firms in advance of these political events, suggestive of a link between our observed stock price behavior and temporary shifts in the listed firms’ information environment.     

高管身份特征对盈余质量影响的实证研究

依据"高管阶梯理论",选用沪市A股2007～2011年上市公司作为研究样本,在调整基于盈余反应系数的盈余质量评价模型的基础上,加入与上市公司高管身份特征相关的研究变量,分析了上市公司高管身份特征对企业盈余质量的影响,研究发现:上市公司高管性别对盈余质量有不十分显著的影响;上市公司高管年龄与公司盈余质量之间呈现显著的正相关性;上市公司高管学历与公司盈余质量之间也呈现显著的正相关性。     

How Firms Use Director Networks in Setting CEO Pay

We examine how firms use the network of overlapping directorships to determine chief executive officer (CEO) compensation. We contribute to related work by empirically exploring two competing hypotheses. In the first hypothesis, networks propagate relevant information used to establish good pay practices. In the second hypothesis, director networks are used opportunistically to benefit the CEO. The empirical findings are generally consistent with the first hypothesis. Yet, the importance of director networks is reduced when the CEO is entrenched and when management hires a compensation consultant. The latter finding is especially pronounced when director networks predict a reduction in CEO pay.     

基于深市上市公司IPO盈余管理实证研究

在分析IPO盈余管理动机的基础上,研究了IPO公司进行盈余管理的手段及其影响。以2008年在深圳证券交易所上市的71家公司为对象,通过研究其2006-2010五年的经济数据,运用改进后的Jones模型,得出两个结论：上市公司的业绩在IPO前后存在明显的差异,并且上市前两年的业绩高于IPO当年及IPO后两年;上市公司通过调整应计利润进行盈余的操纵。最后针对分析结果提出相应对策,以期对加强证券市场监管,完善公司治理结构,帮助投资者进行投资决策做出贡献。