UNCERTAIN INFANT MORTALITY,LEARNING, AND LIFE‐CYCLE FERTILITY*

This article examines the links between infant mortality and fertility in an environment with unobserved heterogeneity in infant mortality risk across mothers. In such an environment, replacement behavior (i.e., the fertility response to an experienced child death) might be influenced by mothers' learning about a family‐specific component of infant mortality risk. I explicitly introduce learning by mothers in a dynamic stochastic model of life‐cycle marital fertility, and I estimate the model's structural parameters using Malaysian panel data. The framework is used to estimate replacement rates and to correct for birth selectivity in the estimation of the relationship between infant mortality risk and “health inputs.”     

Female labour force participation,fertility and infant mortality in Australia: some empirical evidence from Granger causality tests

This study applies Granger causality tests within a multivariate error correction framework to examine the relationship between female participation rates, infant mortality rates and fertility rates for Australia using annual data from 1960 to 2000. Decomposition of variance and impulse response functions are also considered. The main findings are twofold. First, in the short run there is unidirectional Granger causality running from the fertility rate to female labour force participation and from the infant mortality rate to female labour force participation while there is neutrality between the fertility rate and infant mortality rate. Second, in the long run both the fertility rate and infant mortality rate Granger cause female labour participation.     

Fertility pattern of Muslim Hausa women in northern Nigeria

This paper reports the results of a fertility survey conducted in 1980 in Malumfashi town in northern Nigeria. The study covered 302 Hausa-speaking households in 2 wards. Of the 302 married males surveyed, 168 were monogamous, 92 had 2 wives, 30 had 3 wives, and 12 and 4 wives (the maximum allowable). All 168 monogramous marriages were not monogamous at the start. The average duration of present marriage among respondents was 14.1 years for monogamous unions and 11.0 years for polygymous unions. The average number of children ever born to women over 45 years of age was 6.3 (6.7 in monogamous unions and 6.0 in polygamous unions). The average family size for all marriages was 3.6, but this value was 4.6 in monogamous unions and 3.4 in polygamous unions (age standardized values were 4.5 and 3.4, respectively). There were 80 live births in the survey sample during the 12 months preceding the study, with a mean age at childbirth of 28.7 years. The crude birth rate for the surveyed population was 48.06/1000 (46/1000 for monogamous families and 43/1000 for polygamous families). The infant mortality rate was 137.5/1000 live births. About 11% of women in the sample were sterile. The fertility rate observed in this study is lower than that in Nigeria as a whole, perhaps because of the prevalence of polygamous unions in this region. These results support the observation that women in polygamous unions have lower fertility than those in monogamous unions.     

The effect of the timing and spacing of births on the level of labor market involvement of married women

We analyze the effect of the timing and spacing of births on the labor supply of married women in a framework that accounts for the endogeneity of the labor market and fertility decisions, for the heterogeneity of the effects of children on labor supply and their correlation with the fertility decisions, and for the correlation of sequential labor market decisions. Delaying the first birth leads to higher pre-natal levels of labor market involvement and reduces the negative effect of the first child on labor supply. The effect of the second child increases with the spacing of the two births as women, returning to work after the first birth, finance child care time increasingly through reductions in market time. Individual heterogeneity is considerable; women with lower propensity for children have the first birth later in life and space subsequent births more closely together, work more before the birth of the first child, but face larger effects of children on their labor supply.     

The Effect of Female Education on Fertility and Infant Health: Evidence from School Entry Policies Using Exact Date of Birth

This paper uses age-at-school-entry policies to identify the effect of female education on fertility and infant health. We focus on sharp contrasts in schooling, fertility, and infant health between women born just before and after the school entry date. School entry policies affect female education and the quality of a woman's mate and have generally small, but possibly heterogeneous, effects on fertility and infant health. We argue that school entry policies manipulate primarily the education of young women at risk of dropping out of school.     

Are living standards converging?

We re-address the convergence issue that is so prominent in the economic growth literature and present evidence as to what extent there is convergence across measures of living standards, alternative to capita income. The four additional indicators that we use are daily calorie supply, daily protein supply, infant mortality rates, and life expectancy at birth. We present results obtained using three techniques previously considered in growth empirics. These are cross-country regressions, distributional dynamics, and cluster analysis. Our main finding is that convergence in real GDP per capita does not imply convergence in other social indicators. However, the qualitative results for all indicators are the same in the sense that the persistent gap between the rich and poor does not only manifest itself in real GDP per capita but also in living standards.     

State abortion policy and infant health: A simulation model of the impact of hypothetical patterns of state laws proscribing abortion services

Prior research suggests that the availability of abortion services may affect the proportion of observed births with poor outcomes (e.g., low birth weight). Recent Supreme Court decisions and changes in the composition of elected officials of state governments have increased the saliency of state discretion over abortion related policies. This paper presents results from a simulation model of the effects of hypothetical state laws prohibiting abortion on observed measures of infant health in the states regarded as most likely to adopt laws significantly restricting abortion access. Under several model scenarios, both the incidence of low birthweight infants and neonatal mortality among blacks are predicted to increase substantially in states adopting restrictive abortion laws. The predicted impact among whites, however, is relatively small.     

Interrelations between duration of residence and fertility in a Nigerian primate city

Data were taken from a 1974-75 survey of female employment and the small family ideal in Surulere, Ebute-Metta and Yaba in Lagos, Nigeria, to critically examine the duration of residence as a correlate of fertility behavior. It was taken into account that migrants and nonmigrants may have other attributes that may affect their fertility levels other than migrant status. Thus, education and age were controlled for in the cross tabulation of duration of residence with fertility of mothers with different migrant statuses. In a multivariate analysis, in addition to education and age, factors also controlled for were husband's education and income, age at 1st marriage, migration, and employment status. The data had been collected via a probability random sampling of women currently married in the 15-49 age group. The total sample for this study was 1801 respondents; only mothers with at least 1 child were included. The comparison for nonmigrants by varying duration of residence in Lagos was not possible, but for migrants from both Western and Eastern states fertility of recent migrants was considerably lower than that of migrants with longer length of residence in Lagos as well as for that of nonmigrants and 2nd or more generation migrants. The expected high fertility of recent migrants, which should decline gradually as the duration of residence increases according to the principle of assimilation process, was found. In fact, the fertility of migrants from both the Western and Eastern states whose duration of residence had been 25 or more years was the highest. The fertility of the 2nd or more generation migrants assumed that of the native born. The examination of correlates of fertility through the ordinary least square regression showed that the inverse relationship of education of fertility becomes operational only with secondary education or more. The pattern was the same when husband's education was examined. The assumption that fertility increases as one moves further away from the primate city located along the coast was confirmed. Women in employee status had lower fertility than women who were self-employed, but full-time housewives also had lower fertility than those who were self-employed. In contrast to the findings in more developed economies in which education correlates with income and this in turn correlates inversely with fertility, the findings confirmed that income was positively related to fertility. The implication of the findings is that migrants, in terms of reproductive behavior, still retain ties with their places of origin irrespective of the duration of residence in their place of destination.     

Human capital and the time-profile of human fertility

This is a 1st attempt at an explicitly intertemporal, microeconomic theory of the distribution of births over a woman's fertile period. The main results are that: 1) the optimal time-profile will satisfy the Hotelling rule for the depletion of a natural resource (in the present case of the women's stock of human capital at marriage); and 2) under certain simplifying assumptions, women with "high" initial endowments of human capital will have all their children in the 1st part of married life and then return to full-time employment, while women with "low" initial endowments will spread childbearing more evenly over the fertile period. It must also be pointed out that the characteristics of the optimal fertility profile might be different if utility depended directly on the profile itself--e.g., if the quality of children increased with the interval between the pregnancies, as assumed in the literature on birth spacing.     

Child Labour Education and Nutrition in Rural India

Decisions concerning child labour, education and nutrition are taken by parents simultaneously with decisions affecting fertility and infant mortality. This implies that child labour cannot be abolished without altering the conditions that make it optimal for parents to make their children work. Such conditions can be altered not only by educational policies, such as free or subsidized provision of school facilities, but also by more broadly aimed policies, such as sanitation or preventive medicine.     

Evolution of infant and child mortality in Chile: a model

The author contends that birth rate and infant and child mortality rates are jointly determined by demographic, economic, health care, and other influences. Working under this structural assumption, a multiequation model is developed, estimated, and simulated, in which real earnings, unemployment, midwife visits, access to cheap energy, public health expenditures, and degree of urbanization are determinant factors of declining infant and child mortality in Chile. Most notably, mortality declined during a period of increasing unemployment and falling living standards for at least part of the population. The study found all 3 rates to be jointly determined, but by different variables. Specifically, unemployment affected birth rate and child mortality rate, while declining infant mortality was based upon midwife visits, health expenditure, and access to cheap energy. At the policy level, trade-offs often result between infant and child mortality, especially where high birth rates prevail. Where movement along the Phillips curve is possible, higher earnings should be preferred over lower unemployment for the benefit of infant and child mortality. Preferred policy would week to provide a carefully balanced combination of better earnings and more midwife visits.     

Infant mortality in Europe,socio-economic determinants based on aggregate data

A great deal of research has been conducted on the determinant factors of infant mortality. In this work, the focus is placed on the aggregate determinants of infant mortality in the EU. Data is collected from Eurostat and World Health Organization – Health for All databases for the period 2005-12. Robust regressions and panel data regressions are estimated in order to test the main determinants of infant mortality in the EU. Both the GDP and birth before the age of 20 influence infant mortality rate. It is likely that as mothers mean age at the first child increases, the rate of infant mortality decreases. The results found here contribute to the discussion on the factors explaining infant mortality in Europe and to future health policy. In particular, controlling teen motherhood may help to reduce infant mortality rate in the EU.     

Human capital and economic development

This paper develops a general equilibrium model of fertility and human capital investment with young adult mortality. Because young adult mortality is negatively related to average young adult human capital, human capital accumulation lowers mortality, inducing demographic transition and industrial revolution. Data confirm that young adult mortality is related negatively to schooling, and the rate of return to schooling, and positively to fertility. The data indicate a negative relationship between TFP growth and schooling accumulation. The model fits the data on country populations, per capita incomes, human capital, total fertility rates, infant mortality, life expectancy and conditional life expectancy.     

Education and Fertility: Evidence from a Natural Experiment*

Declining fertility is often attributed to the increased education of women. It is difficult to establish a causal link because both fertility and education have changed secularly. In this paper we study the connection between fertility and education using educational reform as an instrument to control for selection. Our results indicate that increasing education leads to postponement of first births away from teenage motherhood and towards women having their first birth in their 20s as well as, for a smaller group, up to the age of 35–40. We find no evidence, however, that more education results in more women remaining childless or having fewer children.     

胎次-激化双重效应:中国生育政策与出生性别比关系的理论构建与实证研究

通过构建"胎次-激化双重效应"理论模型,解读生育政策与出生性别比关联的潜在机制,并利用宏观数据予以检验。政策与出生性别比的失衡存在直接和间接双重关系;生育政策的刚性制约和一孩半生育政策赋予胎次和激化效应特殊含义:(1)一孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比偏高、一孩半政策地区二胎及以上胎次的出生性别比极度失衡,显现"激化效应";(2)政策的多样性使部分低位女胎与男胎一样受欢迎,使一孩半政策及二孩政策地区低胎的出生性别比趋于正常,产生"胎次效应"。可见,政策越强,低位和高位女胎都不受重视,均会遭遇人工流产;相反,在相对宽松的政策环境下,低位女胎所受的歧视程度相对减弱。     

A brief study of age specific birth proportions,Japan and Singapore

The suitability of age-specific birth proportions (ASBP), or percentage distribution of births, as a rough and ready index of fertility change was analyzed by establishing a theoretical framework for its limitations and uses. The discussion suggested that the utility of ASBP as an indicator of fertility change depends on the characteristics and behavior of the population being considered. The concept was then empirically applied to birth trends in Japan and Singapore for 2 different time periods. Analysis suggested that ASBP trends in Japan reflected changes in age-specific fertility rates relative to general fertility rate as well as trends in parity distribution. The Singapore analysis was more complicated, raising different issues. As very limited empirical work has been done on ASBPs, the utility of ASBPs as an indicator of fertility change cannot be definitely ascertained. It was suggested however that ASBP trends may be applicable in countries where the age distribution of fertile-aged women is fairly stable. More empirical research should be done on ASBP trends in other countries, the behavior of A matrix as discussed in this paper, and useful empirical relationship of ASBP with other fertility measures.     

Economic influences on birth rates

A researcher uses an econometric analysis to test his theory that economic developments influence birth rates in post World War II in Great Britain. The base of the analysis consists of a group of equilibrium relationships examining the levels of conditional birth rates (at each birth order and each mother's age) and the levels of economic variables, e.g., ratio of women's hourly wage after taxes. The leading cause of a decrease in births, especially after 1974, was an increase in women's net wages in comparison to men's net wages. Additional evidence suggested that higher women's wages increase the cost of an additional child by raising missed earnings, and this higher opportunity cost reduces the chance of another birth. On the other hand, if men's earnings are higher, couples have more children and at a young age. Further, the higher the real house prices the more likely women are to postpone starting a family and, in the case of 20-24 year old women, these high prices also deter them from having a 2nd child. Higher house prices do not affect higher order births, however. When all other things are equal, women from larger families have a tendency to begin having children in their 30s and produce smaller families than those women from smaller families. Large child allowances encourage 3rd-4th births and early motherhood. To increase fertility to replacement level over the long term, the current level of child allowances would have to double costing about 5 billion British pounds or 1.5% of the gross domestic product.     

Short-run fluctuations in fertility and mortality in pre-industrial Sweden

This paper describes and interprets annual Swedish data from 1750 to 1869 on weather, harvests, real wages, birth rates, and death rates using vector autogression. Impulses due to unexplained increases in wealth, whether this occurred through increased real wages, improved agricultural yields, or warmer winters, led in the short run to increased fertility and decreased infant and non-infant mortality, and hence to increased rates of population growth. Unexplained or unanticipated fluctuations in infant mortality led to replacement cycles in fertility within one to three years, although only a negligible cumulative effect on fertility persisted after five to ten years. Fluctuations in deaths among persons older than one year evoked a fertility response several years later, but this replacement response persisted after more than a decade. Although vector autoregression is not designed to account for long-term trends and their consequences, the interrelationships found here among exogenous weather shocks and fluctuations in economic conditions and demographic rates provide support for the homeostatic mechanisms hypothesized by classical economists and discussed by Malthus. The methodology of vector autoregression appears useful for studying historical series on climatic, economic and demographic variables where we do not yet have a sufficient theoretical foundation for specifying and estimating structural models.     

Economic and other determinants of infant and child mortality in small developing countries: the case of Central America and the Caribbean

This analysis involves empirically testing a theoretical model among 22 Central American and Caribbean countries during the 1990s that explains differences in infant and child mortality. Explanatory measures capture demographic, economic, health care, and educational characteristics. The model is expected to allow for an assessment of the potential impact of structural adjustment and external debt. It is pointed out that birth rates and child mortality rates followed similar patterns over time and between countries. In this study's regression analyses all variables in the three models that explain infant mortality are exogenous: low birth weight, immunization, gross domestic product per capita, years of schooling for women, population/nurse, and debt as a proportion of gross national product. As nations became richer, infant mortality declined. Infant mortality was lower in countries with high external debt. In models for explaining the birth rate and the child mortality rate, the best fit included variables for debt, real public expenditure on health care, water supply, and malnutrition. Analysis in a simultaneous model for 10 countries revealed that the birth rate and the child mortality rate were more responsive to shocks in exogenous variables in Barbados than in the Dominican Republic, and more responsive in the Dominican Republic than in Guatemala. The impact of each exogenous variable varied by country. In Barbados education was four times more effective in explaining the birth rate than water. In Guatemala, the most effective exogenous variable was malnutrition. Child mortality rates were affected more by multiplier effects. In richer countries, the most important impact on child survival was improved access to safe water, and the most important impact on the birth rate was increased real public expenditure on education per capita. For the poorest countries, findings suggest first improvement in malnutrition and then improvement in safe water supplies. Structural adjustment variables were found to have small impacts on the birth rate or limited impacts on child survival in poorer countries.     

Determinants of child mortality,health, and nutrition in a developing country

The authors investigate the determinants of child mortality and health and nutrition status in Nicaragua using economic models of household behavior. In particular, they examine regional differences by degree of urbanization. Various factors affecting child mortality are considered. The results indicate that "income is not an important factor, there is an inverse relation with number of siblings, and there are positive associations with calorie intake, schooling (except in the relatively low-income areas), the availability of refrigeration, and the quality of sewage systems."