Budgetary decomposition and yield spreads

With a panel VAR of 10 Euro area countries, we studied the budgetary determinants of government bond yield spreads vis-à-vis Germany between 1999Q1 and 2012Q4. We find that rising bid ask, VIX and debt differentials increase yield spreads; and improvements in the budget balance, higher growth prospects and depreciation lower the spreads. Moreover, rises in public wages or in social expenditure increase spreads, while increases in direct and indirect taxes lower the yield spreads. In the post-2007Q3 crisis period, rising expenditure components (except subsidies) increased spreads.     

The Sustainability of European External Debt: What have We Learned?

In this paper we aim to analyze the level of sustainability of external debt and, more importantly, how it has changed for a number of European economies. Given the severity of the crisis since 2008, we argue that the path of external debt burdens may have changed since the start of the crisis, given the concerns about debt accumulation in most countries. We analyze the reaction of present debt accumulation to past debt stock, incorporating the possibility of endogenously determined structural breaks in this reaction function. We find that structural breaks happen in most cases after 2008, highlighting the importance of the policy measures taken by most governments.     

Risks of Latin America sovereign debts before and after the financial crisis

We investigate the financial determinants of the return and volatility of sovereign CDS spread from six major Latin American countries before and after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Other than CBOE VIX index, we also find that global factors including US Baa–Aaa default yield, TED spread and US Treasury rate all contribute to the changes in these sovereign CDS spread. Although global risk aversion (VIX) is a significant determinant of sovereign debt spread, in the years after the crisis, the emphasis has shifted towards short-term refinancing risk (TED). Furthermore, the risk of Greek sovereign debt crisis also transmitted Latin American CDS spreads immediately, but only in the post-Lehman sub-period. These findings provide implications for international bonds and credit derivatives trading strategies.     

Neoliberal growth models,monetary union and the Euro crisis. A post-Keynesian perspective

The paper offers an account of the Euro crisis based on post-Keynesian monetary theory and its typology of demand regimes. Neoliberalism has transformed social and financial relations in Europe but it has not given rise to a sustained profit-led growth process. Instead, growth has relied either on financial bubbles and rising household debt (‘debt-driven growth’) or on net exports (‘export-driven growth’). In Europe the financial crisis has been amplified by an economic policy architecture (the Stability and Growth Pact) that aimed at restricting the role of fiscal policy and monetary policy. This neoliberal economic policy regime in conjunction with the separation of monetary and fiscal spheres has turned the financial crisis of 2007 into a sovereign debt crisis in southern Europe.     

Eastern and Southern Africa Monetary Integration: A Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis

This paper uses VAR techniques to investigate the potential for forming monetary unions in Eastern and Southern Africa. All countries in the sample are members of various regional economic organizations. Some of the organizations have a monetary union as an immediate objective whereas others consider it as a possibility in the more distant future. Our objective is to sort out which countries are suitable candidates for a monetary union based on the synchronicity of demand and supply disturbances. Although economic shocks are not highly correlated across the entire region, we tentatively identify three sub‐regional clusters of countries that may benefit from a currency union. We find some tentative evidence that some, though not all, sub‐regions may benefit from a link to the Euro.     

“Core” and “Periphery” in a Monetary Union: A Macroeconomic Policy Game

We develop a dynamic game model of a two-country monetary union to study strategic interactions between macroeconomic policy makers, namely the central bank and governments. In this union, the governments of participating countries pursue national goals when deciding on fiscal policies, whereas the common central bank’s monetary policy aims at union-wide objective variables. The union considered is asymmetric, consisting of a core, with lower initial public debt, and a periphery, with higher initial public debt. For a symmetric demand shock, we derive numerical solutions of the dynamic game between the governments and the central bank using the OPTGAME algorithm. We show that mildly active cooperative countercyclical policies dominate noncooperative solutions and a scenario of no policy intervention. Optimal policies call for a brief expansionary action to bolster the effects on output and a return to a small fiscal primary surplus as soon as the crisis is over until the targeted level of public debt is reached.     

Monetary policy in steering the EONIA and POLONIA rates in the Eurosystem and Poland: a comparative analysis

The effectiveness of the monetary policies of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Narodowy Bank Polski (NBP) is compared directly in terms of influencing the spread between the interbank overnight rate and the main rates of the central banks during periods of different economic conditions, i.e. the global financial crisis of 2008, the European sovereign debt crisis and the period of relative stability. Three categories of determinants of the Euro Overnight Index Average/Polish Overnight Index Average (EONIA/POLONIA) spreads are considered: (1) monetary policy instruments such as open market operations, standing facilities and minimum reserve requirements; (2) measures of liquidity conditions; and (3) market expectations and risk measures. Applying the ARFIMA–GARCH models, we show that the statistical and economic properties of the EONIA and POLONIA spreads are quite different. The EONIA spread has a long memory while the POLONIA spread is characterized by a short memory. This difference is important from the viewpoint of a stabilizing monetary policy. The impact of shocks on the future levels of the spread was stronger for the POLONIA spread, but it was short-lived in comparison with the EONIA spread. Most of the analysed variables significantly influenced the spreads during the financial crisis, while the biggest differences in the impact of determinants between the EONIA and POLONIA spreads occurred during the period of relative stability. Substantial differences also exist between the volatilities of both spreads.     

European policy and markets: Did policy initiatives stem the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area?

We investigate how European policy initiatives influenced market assessments of sovereign default risk and banking sector fragility during the sovereign debt crisis in four adversely affected countries — Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Italy. We focus on three broad groups of policies: (a) ECB policy actions (monetary and financial support), (b) EU programs (financial and fiscal rules as well as financial support in crisis countries), and (c) domestic austerity programs. We measure immediate market impact effects: what policies changed risk perceptions, using CDS spreads on sovereign bonds and banks in this assessment. We employ dynamic panel and event study methodologies in the empirical work. We find that a number of programs initially stabilized sovereign and bank bond markets (e.g. Outright Monetary Transactions program), although announcement and implementation impacts on markets differed in some cases (e.g. second Covered Market Bond Program). Actions designed to shore up sovereign markets often lowered risk assessments in bank bond markets and policies designed to ensure safety and soundness of the European banking system in some cases significantly impacted sovereign debt markets. Finally, a number of policies designed to stabilize markets had surprisingly little immediate impact on either sovereign or bank bond market risk assessments.     

Does local and Euro area sentiment matter for sovereign debt markets? Evidence from a bailout country

Does sentiment impact the sovereign debt markets? This article investigates whether lagged domestic and Euro area irrational sentiment (optimism or pessimism unwarranted by fundamentals) predicts future sovereign bond spreads, in Portugal, between January 2000 and December 2013. We find that domestic and Euro area sentiment negatively forecasts total return spreads and that this effect is stronger during the bailout period. Also, we find that the business sentiment is even most noticed. Therefore, Portuguese sovereign debt market is prone to the influence of investors’ sentiment.     

Comment on “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro-Area Crisis”

This comment discusses and extends the paper: “Lessons for Monetary Policy from the Euro Area Crisis,” by Charles Goodhart. The comment claims the Eurosystem was more sluggish in responding to the crisis than the Federal Reserve due to restrictions originating from its mandate. Yet today’s challenge runs deeper, as the absence of a banking union in the Euro Area has allowed a large fragmentation in financial intermediation. The critical question is: “Given that the Euro Area is not an Optimum Currency Area and a banking union will take a long time to materialize, can the Eurosystem find a way to alleviate the fragmentation in lending rates without compromising its independence?” The comment offers a solution, which would expand the monetary toolbox.     

Contagion across Eurozone’s sovereign spreads and the Core-Periphery divide

This paper investigates the causes of disproportionate increases of sovereign yields with respect to the interest rate on the 10 years German Bund within the Eurozone. Empirical evidence drawn from the Bank for International Settlements dataset on banks’ portfolios shows that rapid financial integration, following the launch of the monetary union, resulted in excess exposure of Core countries’ banks in the Peripheral countries’ financial assets. In order to endogenize the possibility of contagion effects, we conduct econometric estimates through a Global Vector Autoregressive model, where each country’s spread depends upon all Eurozone countries’ spreads. Results show that after the burst of the financial crisis the Core countries’ sovereign yields are essentially determined by the international risk aversion, whereas the spreads of Peripheral countries mainly depend on fundamentals, namely the public debt/GDP ratio and the Real Effective Exchange Rate values with respect to the Eurozone average. These results are supported by the estimate of an impulse response analysis. Macroeconomic failures in public finances and competitiveness seem to originate the exceptional increases in sovereign spreads of the Periphery, through a contagion effect which is limited to this group of Eurozone countries.     

Re-Exploring the Enlargement of the Eurozone: Evidence from the New Member-States

The debt crisis of the Euro Area in 2010 raised plenty of doubts concerning the sustainability of the monetary union. Eurozone includes economies which have different structural characteristics. This event does not allow the establishment of an optimal currency area. The present research attempts to explore if the join of Cyprus, Malta, Latvia, Slovenia and Slovakia in the Eurozone was in favor of their economies. We used the nominal exchange rates as a financial instrument by combing the Error Correction Model with the Threshold GARCH, ECM-TGARCH. The empirical findings highly support that the EU membership influenced positively the relationship between the euro and the Cypriot Pound, the Latvian Lats and the Slovenian Tolar. On the contrary, we discovered that the join of Malta in the EU had a slightly negative and a long-term impact in the relationship between the euro and the Maltese currency. Finally, the entrance of Slovakia in the EU influenced positively the Slovakian currency. However, the relationship between the euro and the Slovakian Koruna remained negative.     

Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis

The European debt crisis has revealed severe imbalances within the Euro area, sparking a debate about the magnitude of those imbalances, in particular concerning real effective exchange rate misalignments. We use synthetic matching to construct a counterfactual economy for each member state in order to identify the degree of these misalignments. We find that crisis countries are best described as a combination of advanced and emerging economies. Comparing the actual real effective exchange rate with those of the counterfactuals gives evidence of misalignments before the outbreak of the crisis: all peripheral countries appear strongly and significantly overvalued.     

Fundamentals and Sovereign Risk of Emerging Markets

We empirically assess the relative importance of various economic fundamentals in accounting for the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging markets during 2004–2012, which encompasses the global financial crisis of 2008–2009. Inflation, state fragility, external debt and commodity terms of trade volatility were positively associated, while trade openness and a more favourable fiscal balance/GDP ratio were negatively associated with sovereign CDS spreads. Yet the relative importance of economic fundamentals in the pricing of sovereign risk varies over time. The key factors are trade openness and state fragility in the pre‐crisis period, the external debt/GDP ratio and inflation in the crisis period, and inflation and the public debt/GDP ratio in the post‐crisis period. Asian countries enjoy lower sovereign spreads than Latin American countries, and this gap widened during and after the crisis. Trade openness was the biggest factor behind Asia's lower sovereign spreads before the crisis, and inflation during and after the crisis. The results imply that external factors were paramount in pricing sovereign risk prior to the crisis, but internal factors associated with the capacity to adjust to adverse shocks gained prominence during and after the crisis.     

The Governance of a Fragile Eurozone

When entering a monetary union, member countries change the nature of their sovereign debt in a fundamental way; that is, they cease to have control over the currency in which their debt is issued. As a result, financial markets can force these countries’ sovereigns into defaulting. This makes the monetary union fragile and vulnerable to changing market sentiments. It also makes it possible that self‐fulfilling multiple equilibria arise. I analyse the implications of this fragility for the governance of the Eurozone. I argue that the role of the European Central Bank as a lender of last resort is crucial in reducing the fragility of the Eurozone. In addition, steps towards a budgetary union are key in structurally strengthening the union.     

Credit risk and sustainable debt: a model and estimations of why the Euro is stable in the long-run

Sustainable debt has become the key issue in rating of private as well as sovereign debtors. The problem of how to estimate sustainable debt has also been at the center of the debate over the Asian 1997–1998 financial crisis. If the external value of the currency depends on the external debt of a country, it is necessary to estimate the creditworthiness of the country. This paper studies credit risk and sustainable debt in the context of a dynamic model. For a dynamic growth model with an additional equation for the evolution of debt, we demonstrate of how to compute sustainable debt and creditworthiness. The model is estimated by employing time series data for the core countries of the Euro-area. The computations show that the Euro-area has large external assets. Using time series methods, the sustainability of external debt (assets) is estimated for those core countries of the Euro-area. Those estimations show that the Euro will be a stable currency in the long-run.     

On the time-varying relationship between EMU sovereign spreads and their determinants

We use a dynamic multipath general-to-specific algorithm to capture structural instability in the link between euro area sovereign bond yield spreads against Germany and their underlying determinants over the period January 1999–August 2011. We offer new evidence suggesting a significant heterogeneity across countries, both in terms of the risk factors determining spreads over time as well as in terms of the magnitude of their impact on spreads. Our findings suggest that the relationship between euro area sovereign risk and the underlying fundamentals is strongly time-varying, turning from inactive to active since the onset of the global financial crisis and further intensifying during the sovereign debt crisis. As a general rule, the set of financial and macro spreads' determinants in the euro area is rather unstable but generally becomes richer and stronger in significance as the crisis evolves.     

PIGS or Lambs? The European Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Role of Rating Agencies

This paper asks whether rating agencies played a passive role or were an active driving force during Europe??s sovereign debt crisis. We address this by estimating relationships between sovereign debt ratings and macroeconomic and structural variables. We then use these equations to decompose actual ratings into systematic and arbitrary components that are not explained by previously observed procedures of rating agencies. Finally, we check whether systematic, as well as arbitrary, parts of credit ratings affect credit spreads. We find that both do affect credit spreads, which opens the possibility that arbitrary rating downgrades trigger processes of self-fulfilling prophecies that may drive even relatively healthy countries towards default.     

Determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in the EMU: An optimal currency area perspective

In the light of the recent financial crisis, we take a panel cointegration approach that allows for structural breaks to the analysis of the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads in nine economies of the European Monetary Union. We find evidence for a level break in the cointegrating relationship. Moreover, results show that (i) fiscal imbalances – namely expected government debt-to-GDP differentials – are the main long-run drivers of sovereign spreads; (ii) liquidity risks and cumulated inflation differentials have non-negligible weights; but (iii) all conclusions are ultimately connected to whether or not the sample of countries is composed of members of an Optimal Currency Area (OCA). In particular, we establish (i) that results are overall driven by those countries not passing the OCA test; and (ii) that investors closely monitor and severely punish the deterioration of expected debt positions of those economies exhibiting significant gaps in competitiveness.     

JOINING EUROPEAN MONETARY UNION: A REAL OPTIONS PERSPECTIVE

We examine the real option implicit in countries' decisions on whether to join a monetary union when future benefits of this move are uncertain. Our theoretical model is calibrated for the current Euro‐12 area and EU‐15 outs, proxying policymakers' inflation preferences with unemployment rates, debt‐to‐GDP and potential‐to‐actual‐GDP ratios. The Euro‐12 area is generally ready or close to wanting to expand, whereas the EU‐15 outs are unready to make that move at present and have widely varying probabilities of wanting to do so in the future, depending on the measure used.