An investment-function-based measure of capacity utilisation.: Potential output and utilised capacity in the Bank of Italy's quarterly model

Measures of potential output and the output gap are increasingly being developed and used to concisely quantify and monitor the risk of price accelerations stemming from rises in aggregate demand that are not met by a corresponding increase in supply. They often play a prominent role in the price determination mechanisms of macroeconometric models. In this paper we build a measure of potential private-sector value added for the Italian economy that is consistent with the capital accumulation process in the Banca d'Italia's Quarterly Model — and more generally with the rest of the supply-side block of that model. More specifically, we exploit the fact that the investment function can be thought of as a relationship transforming desired gross additions to capacity output into capital accumulation by means of a conversion factor (the optimal capital/output ratio). Thus, if one removes the component of investment decisions that stems from changes in the relative price of the production factors, (i.e. in the optimal capital/output ratio), then a measure of the desired gross addition to capacity may be constructed. The results draw a cyclical picture of the degree of capacity utilisation for the period 1970–1997 that is roughly in line with those produced by the Wharton and Hodrick–Prescott filter approaches, as well as with the pictures resulting from the ISAE, IMF, European Commission and OECD measures of the output gap. Our investment-function-based measure appears to be a promising indicator of the pressure exerted on prices by demand accelerations. Its empirical properties are, on the whole, acceptable and plausible.     

Exchange rate reform and its inflationary consequences: an empirical analysis for China

In examining China's exchange rate policy in the reforming years, the study finds empirical evidence of its long-run inflationary consequences, but the effects appear not to be sizable. In the short run, while changes in the devaluation rate are positively correlated with the increase in the growth rate of inflation, the inflation inertia is also modest. The moderate inflationary cost of devaluations provides some explanation of the smooth transition of exchange rate policy regime in China and the authorities' ability to put more weight on external competitiveness.     

The clearance rate as a measure of criminal justice system effectiveness

The validity of the clearance rate as a measure of either criminal justice system (CJS) effectiveness or of the probability of punishment for crime can be questioned on the grounds that the relationship between CJS effectiveness and observed clearance rates is mediated by the choice behavior of criminals. If the clearance rate is endogenous in that sense, then recent econometric results concerning the deterrence effect of punishment are fundamentally flawed. A model of criminal adaptation to changes in CJS effectiveness illustrates the basic problem.     

A time preference measure of the social discount rate for the UK

In this study the social discount rate for the UK is estimated, the result compared with the Treasury approved rate and the main associated policy implications considered. A case is argued for reducing the official discount rate in appraisals involving all long-term social projects. The estimate of the elasticity of the marginal utility of consumption, an important component of the discount rate, is supported by plausible and statistically valid regression results. The need for further work relating to other major european countries is identified so that discount rate comparisons can be made on a consistent basis.     

The speed of adjustment as a measure for competitiveness

The authors are grateful to G. Lensink for research assistance. Special acknowledgement is due to Prof. Harry P. Bowen of the Graduate School of Business, New York University, who was kind enough to supply much of the data, and to Prof. L. Beinsen for his comments on an earlier version of the paper.     

The export-productivity relationship: A time series representation for Austria

Zusammenfassung Der in vielen westlichen Industriel?ndern zu beobachtende positive Zusammenhang zwischen Produktivit?ts- und Exportwachstum führte zu zwei einander entgegengesetzten kausalen Hypothesen. Die erste, von Vertretern des “Export-led-growth”-Modells vorgebrachte Hypothese geht davon aus, da? das Produktivit?tswachstum im wesentlichen über das Exportwachstum bestimmt wird. Dagegen sieht die zweite, auf dem Ricardo-Modell und den Theorien des intra-industriellen Handels beruhende Hypothese das Wachstum der Exporte von der Produktivit?t bestimmt. Die Richtung in der Kausalit?t zwischen Exporten und Produktivit?t hat entsprechende Konsequenzen für die Einsch?tzung von Instrumenten der Industriepolitik. W?hrend das “Export-led-growth”-Modell und jüngere Au?enhandelstheorien Wechselkursabwertungen bzw. Exportsubventionen zur Ankurbelung der Exporte und damit der Produktivit?t nahelegen, ziehen die Theorien des intra-industriellen Handels eine Subvention von Forschung und Entwicklung und/oder des Outputs als wirkungsvollere Ma?nahmen zur Beschleunigung der Produktivit?t vor. Der Aufsatz untersucht anhand ?sterreichischen Datenmaterials, welche der beiden Kausalhypothesen mit der beobachteten Entwicklung der Exporte, der Produktivit?t und der Terms of Trade kompatibel ist. Dabei bedient sich die Arbeit des Wiener-Granger-Konzepts als statistischer Test auf Kausalit?t. Zudem werden Simulationen durchgeführt, um die dynamischen Eigenschaften der untersuchten Zeitreihen zu bestimmen.      

Overconfidence as a social bias: Experimental evidence

The overconfidence bias is discussed extensively in economic studies, yet fails to hold experimentally once monetary incentives and feedback are implemented. We consider overconfidence as a social bias. For a simple real effort task, we show that, individually, economic conditions effectively prevent overconfidence. By contrast, the introduction of a very basic, purely observational social setting fosters overconfident self-assessments. Additionally, observing others’ actions effectively eliminates underconfidence compared to the individual setting.     

Pollution havens: international empirical evidence using a shadow price measure of climate policy stringency

Given the ambiguous empirical results of previous research, this paper tests whether support for a climate policy-induced pollution haven effect and the pollution haven hypothesis can be found. Unlike the majority of previous studies, the analysis is based on international panel data and includes several methodological novelties: By arguing that trade flows of dirty goods to less dirty sectors may also be influenced by changes in policy stringency, trade information on primary, secondary, and tertiary sectors are included. In order to clearly differentiate between dirty sectors and sectors with high pollution abatement costs, separate measures for pollution intensity and policy stringency are implemented. For the former, two intensities, namely the sectors’ carbon dioxide emission intensity and the emission relevant energy intensity, are used to identify dirty sectors. For the latter, an internationally comparable, sector-specific measure of climate policy stringency is derived by applying a shadow price approach. Potential endogeneity between climate policy stringency, trade openness and the trade balance is controlled for by employing a dynamic panel generalized method of moments estimator. The results provide evidence for a pollution haven effect that is also present for non-dirty sectors, i.e., a sector’s net imports rise in general if the sector faces an increase in climate policy stringency. Moreover, a stronger pollution haven effect regarding carbon dioxide intensive and emission relevant energy-intensive sectors is revealed. However, no support for the stronger pollution haven hypothesis can be found.     

Using mean reversion as a measure of persistence

This paper suggests a new scalar measure of persistence together with a companion estimator, which has the advantage of not requiring the specification and estimation of a model for the series under investigation. The statistical properties of the companion estimator are established, which allow tests of hypotheses to be performed, under very general conditions. The use of the new measure is illustrated by re-evaluating persistence of inflation for the United States and the Euro Area. The conclusions for the United States do not differ significantly from what has been found in previous empirical studies. However, for the Euro Area we find evidence of a significant break occurring in 2001/2002, such that persistence becomes virtually nil for the period that follows the launch of the euro and the implementation of a common monetary policy by the European Central Bank.     

On selecting a measure of labour activity: evidence from registered nurses, 1981 and 1989

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the effects of the selection of measures of labour activity on the conclusions that are derived from the analysis of individual labour supply. The results of the analysis using three commonly specified single measures (Annual Hours Worked, Hours Worked per Week, and Weeks Worked per Year) as the dependent variable in TOBIT equations are compared with those obtained using a PROBIT-2SLS in which the individual labour supply is measured by Hours Worked per Week and Weeks Worked per Year. The RHS variables are those that are used in earlier individual labour supply studies and are the same in all of the models analysed. Among the findings are (1) wage rate effects that are quite strong in single equation models and disappear when a multi-equation approach is used, (2) the effects of children on labour supply is more complex than in indicated in single equation results and (3) duration dependence is much stronger than indicated results using a single measure of individual labour supply. These results suggest that using a single measure of labour supply will lead to inappropriate conclusions as to the effects of such variables as wage rates, number and ages of children, spouse's employment state, and income from other sources on individual labour supply.     

Exploring Voter Preferences in Cultural Policy: A Case Study for Austria

The aim of the paper is to explore the demographic, social, economic and politicaldeterminants of voting behavior in a recently held referendum on the constructionof a new theater (``Musiktheater') in the city of Linz (Upper Austria) in 2000. Itwas the first referendum on cultural policy of its kind in Austria, and it led to arejection of the proposal by a majority of the voters (59.70% of ``No' votes).Exploring the determinants of approval or disapproval of the proposition by usingfor group data in communities is thus an interesting question from an economic aswell as a political point of view. We find econometric evidence for the influence ofthe size of the population in the community, the distance of the community from thecity of Linz, income-related variables, variables denoting the economic structure ofthe community, and political variables such as the ratio of the communities' debt torevenues and voters' preferences in the last national election.     

The effect of capital requirement regulation on the transmission of monetary policy: evidence from Austria

This paper analyzes the role of banks’ regulatory capitalization in the transmission of monetary policy. We use a confidential dataset for Austrian banks spanning from the first quarter of 1997 to the fourth quarter of 2003. We find evidence that Austrian banks react in an asymmetric way to monetary policy depending on their regulatory excess capitalization, i.e. low capitalized banks react more restrictively to a monetary tightening than their highly capitalized peers.

Asymmetric information and uncertainty: The usefulness of logbooks as a regulation measure

In many fisheries managed by quota systems fishermen are required to keep a logbook containing information about catches. No well functioning enforcement system is set up in connection with the logbooks, since the purpose is to assist biologists in making stock assessments. In this paper we consider a case where three market failures (a stock externality problem, a stock uncertainty problem and problems with measuring individual catches) arise simultaneously. It is shown that a stock tax and a tax on voluntary self-reported catches may solve these three problems. By taxing voluntary self-reported catches we make use of logbook information. It is shown using an analytic model that it will be in the interest of risk-averse fishermen to report part of their catch voluntarily even without an enforcement policy. In addition, it is shown that the tax structure can secure optimal expected individual catches, and empirical simulations show that the tax payment is relatively low. Thus, the tax system may be useful in practical fisheries management.     

Reducing CO2-Emissions Under Fiscal Retrenchment: A Multi-Cohort CGE-Model for Austria

The stabilization of budget deficit and budget debt ratios by fiscal retrenchment in order to fulfill the Maastricht criteria for the EMU is of central focus in most EU countries. At the same time the national policy dimension of acute environmental problems such as global warming has receded in the public eye. The environmental dimension nonetheless remains urgent, and a re-evaluation of the prospects of CO2-policy is needed against the background of fiscal retrenchment required by supranational obligations. We shall do this for the small, open, Austrian economy by constructing a dynamic multi-cohort CGE model enabling us to assess quantitatively the lifetime welfare impacts on the cohorts affected by three different options for using CO2-permit revenues. The distribution of welfare costs of (Toronto-) CO2-policy across cohorts significantly differs with use. This is explained by income, inheritance and price effects.     

True protection and the real exchange rate in a capital-rich developing country: some evidence for Saudi Arabia

This paper investigates how alternative measures of the real exchange rate respond to trade policy and terms of trade changes. It employs a modelling framework which endogenises the price of non-tradeable goods, and applies the model to price and real exchange rate data for Saudi Arabia for the period 1982–92. The results show that the popular propositions about the response of the real exchange rate to terms of trade or trade policy changes do not necessary hold. This is a consequence of the measure of the real exchange rate utilized, rather than a product of Saudi Arabia's capital richness.     

Outsourcing of accounting tasks and tax management: evidence from a corporate tax rate change

The aim of this article is to investigate if small firms react to a national corporate tax rate reduction by managing their taxable income. In contrast to previous studies, we also analyse whether outsourcing of accounting tasks affects the magnitude of the reaction. Based on a sample of Finnish firms and measures of earnings management, evidence is provided that firms with an internalized accounting function are more active tax planners in this context. This study suggests that outsourcing of accounting tasks increases the corporate tax reporting quality.     

Employment and growth in an aging society: a simulation study for Austria

In this study we use a long run macroeconomic model for Austria to simulate the effects of aging on employment, output growth, and the solvency of the social security system. By disaggregating the population into six age cohorts and modelling sex specific participation rates for each cohort we are able to account for the future demographic trends. Apart from a baseline scenario, we perform three alternative simulations that highlight the effects of aging from different perspectives. These include (1) purely demographic developments, (2) increasing labour market imperfections, and (3) higher economic growth due to a productivity shock.