The Millennium Survey: How Economists View the U.S. Economy in the 21st Century

This essay presents the results of a survey of AEA members on how they expect the U.S. economy to evolve in the next 50 years. More specifically, respondents were asked about changes in a variety of macroeconomic variables and whether such changes would lead to major changes in the economic system or important economic institutions. For the next quarter century, for instance, the respondents foresee the greatest deviation from current trends occurring with regard to growth of per capita GDP, volatility of the financial system, and globalization. They also predict that changes in the economic system will most likely come about from the impact of increasing globalization, increasing inequality of income, and increasing financial instability.     

美国是如何管理城市的

为了学习和借鉴美国大城市管理的经验 ,由市委研究室、市市政管委、市国土资源和房屋管理局等课题参与单位组成的北京市城市管理考察团 ,从2 0 0 1年 9月 4日至 9月 1 4日 ,先后对美国首都华盛顿、纽约、旧金山、洛杉矶等主要城市进行访问考察 ,与华盛顿市政府、美国住房和城市发展部、斯坦福研究中心、乔治梅森大学公共政策院、世界银行东亚及太平洋地区城市发展部、洛杉矶市政府城市规划局等单位的政府官员和专家学者 ,就城市管理理论研究和实践探索领域的有关内容开展交流 ,取得了预期效果。　　一、美国城市管理的一些成功做法　　通过…     

How family spending has changed in the U.S

Since the Monthly Labor Review began, the proportion of family expenditures allocated for food has dropped by half, the incidence of homeownership has doubled, and spending for transportation, medical care, and recreation has increased significantly.     

The Academic Mind and the Rise of U.S. Imperialism: Historians and Economists as Publicists for Ideas of Colonial Expansion

A bstract . The role of American learned societies in developing support for an American colonial foreign policy has been neglected. Evidence indicates that American learned societies, in the period following the Spanish-American War from 1898 to 1901, were intellectually predisposed toward an imperial policy. The debates within the American Historical Association , the American Economic Association , and the American Academy of Political and Social Science are described and analyzed. Each learned society abandoned the ivory tower" and mixed in impassioned politics. The "imperial" interpretation led historians to endorse empire as salutary; economists endorsed the role of the State in building markets for domestic production; and prevailing Social Darwinistic views of political economy led the Academy of Political and Social Science to support an activist, acquisitive foreign policy as necessary to the national interest. Dissident, anti imperialist scholars as well as skeptical scholars could not turn the imperial mood of these societies.     

The Throwaway Culture in the Economy of Exclusion: Pope Francis and Economists on Waste

An essential part of Pope Francis’s critique of the “economy of exclusion” is the concept of the “throwaway culture,” which is an attitude and a reality that goes beyond mere exclusion. Francis is building on critiques of consumerism (what John Paul II called “economism”) that noted both the environmental impacts of unnecessary waste and the social and human impact of reducing humans to mere consumers—the idea that happiness is shopping. Francis adds to this a concern for the people on the margins of society who are treated as disposable and for the consequences of climate change, both of which are connected to the throwaway attitude. This article looks at Francis’s views within the tradition of Catholic social thought and at how economists, especially Adam Smith, who provided the foundation for modern economics, looked at waste and consumerism.     

Social Anthropology in Economic Literature at the End of the 19th Century: Eugenic and Racial Explanations of Inequality

A bstract .   At the end of the 19^th century, Georges Vacher de Lapouge and Otto Ammon founded a school of thought denominated "social anthropology" or "anthropo-sociology," aimed at placing racism on a scientific basis. Their intent was to create a new discipline into which the themes of biological heredity, natural selection, social stratification, and political organization were to converge. This paper intends to demonstrate the wide resonance that anthroposociology had in the economic literature, analyzing the thought of authors such as Carlos C. Closson, Vilfredo Pareto, and Thorstein Veblen. A particular focus will be on the racial and eugenic arguments used as explanation of social and economic inequality.     

Sources of Sectoral Growth in an Economy Wide Context: The Case of U.S. Agriculture

Growth in U.S. agriculture is linked to the non-farm economy through domestic terms of trade and factor market adjustments. With almost stable input growth, the relatively large contributions from growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) are passed on to intermediate and final consumers in the form of declining real prices for primary farm products. The resulting net growth in the real value of farm output (GDP) is relatively low (0.25% per annum). The decomposition of TFP suggests that public agricultural stock of knowledge and infrastructure are robustly associated with TFP growth, while spill-overs from private agricultural and economy wide research and development (R and D) are positive but, relatively small.     

Long-range U.S. Manpower forecasts in retrospect: How accurate were we?

This paper compares and evaluates the accuracy of long-range occupational manpower forecasts made for 1980 in the early 1970s by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and by the author. The different assumptions and forecasting methodologies utilized are discussed, and the occupational forecasts are then compared to the actual 1980 employment data. The relative accuracy of the different sets of forecasts is assessed according to several different criteria, and the larger question of the usefulness of either set of forecasts is addressed. It is found that neither set of forecasts was clearly superior, that the accuracy of both sets of forecasts was generally poor, and that the projections for individual occupations were often so wide of the mark as to be of questionable usefulness for manpower planning and vocational guidance. The implications of these findings for manpower forecasting are discussed.The author is grateful to several referees for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper, but retains sole responsibility for the opinions expressed here and for any errors.     

Japanese and U.S. interventions in the yen/U.S. dollar market: estimating the monetary authorities’ reaction functions

This paper uses recently released official data on the foreign exchange market interventions of the Japanese monetary authorities in the yen/U.S. dollar market during the period 1991–2001 to examine the motivation for the intervention policy. We also compare the Japanese intervention policy with the U.S. intervention policy. Our results suggest that the Japanese authorities regularly responded to deviations of the yen/U.S. dollar exchange rate from a short-term and a long-term exchange rate target. By contrast, the U.S. authorities intervened only occasionally and seemed to have merely reinforced Japanese interventions.     

Income inequality in the U.S.: The Kuznets hypothesis revisited

Using annual data from 1919 to 2002, the structural transformation hypothesis proposed by Simon Kuznets helps explain the U-shape of U.S. top 1% or 0.01% income share distributions. Flexible autoregressive lag representations are employed and generalized methods of moments reinforce our results. First, as the employment share in goods producing activities falls, income inequality increases in the long run. Second, federal top taxation has only shortterm negative impacts. Third, these major results hold to business cycle controls (linear time trend and real output fluctuations) and to robustness checks of structural changes documented for the U.S. economy around the late 1970s.     

The Great Depression versus the Great Recession in the U.S.: How fiscal,monetary, and financial polices compare

This study reviews the financial distress that triggered and amplified the financial crises of the Great Depression and Great Recession and compares macroeconomic and financial policy responses. Shadow banking funded the build-up of the financial excesses that preceded both. The quicker and forceful response of monetary and fiscal policy during the Great Recession and stronger action to restore market functionality mitigated the downturn and aided recovery. Nevertheless, actions to address the mortgage debt overhang were slower. Post-Depression reforms focused on preventing deposit runs and post-Great Recession reforms on preventing runs on bank debt and shadow banks while boosting capital buffers.     

Management Accounting Practices in the U.S. and Japan: Comparative Survey Findings and Research Implications*

In recent years, the success of Japanese firms in the global market has prompted efforts to understand the sources of their competitive advantage. It has been suggested that one such source is the Japanese firms' management accounting systems, and a number of articles have claimed that important differences do exist between U.S. and Japanese firms in this area. However, these claims have tended to be supported by anecdotal, rather than systematic, evidence. The objective of this article is to contribute further insights into similarities and differences between U.S. and Japanese firms' management accounting practices. Exhaustive searches of published surveys in the U.S. and Japanese literatures (much of which is in Japanese) provided the basis for U.S.-Japan comparisons on six aspects of management accounting practices. In turn, these comparisons were used for deriving implications for future research. Two major limitations of extant research and, thus, directions for future research are identified. First, future research needs to go beyond the simple use or non-use of techniques to investigate more detailed aspects of technique use. Second, since management accounting is only one component of a firm's total management system, attention also needs to be devoted to the organizational context, process, and goals of a firm's management accounting practices.     

The U.S. Bureau of the Budget As Agency Evaluator:

Abstract — The U.S. Bureau of the Budget has the important function of recommending to the President the size of agency “shares” in the federal budget. A major research problem, then, is: what standards and criteria are employed in the Budget Bureau in evaluating the agencies and in arriving at budgetary decisions which affect the positions and missions of the agencies of the executive establishment? One scheme of analysis has suggested on the basis of the Parsonian pattern-variables that public administrators tend to be specific, affectively neutral, universalistic, collectivity-oriented, and achievement-oriented in their evaluations of social objects. To test this hypothesis, the pattern-variables were related to the operations of the agency, each on the basis of a single qualitative indicator, and applied in survey research conducted among the professional budget examiners and their superiors in two of the Budget Bureau's five examining divisions. The data indicate that, in fact, the respondents tended to be diffuse, affective, particularistic, collectivity-oriented, and achievement oriented toward the federal agencies with which they deal. Thus they tended (on three of the pattern-variables) to adopt orientations more typical of the political partisan than of the public administrator, a result which, it is hypothesized, is due in part to the unique relationship that the Budget Bureau bears to the President. The results explain, in part, the insolvable nature of the conflicts that exist between the executive agencies and the Bureau of the Budget.     

Joint Ventures in the U.S. Steel Industry:

A bstract . In 1958 Daniel Fusfeld examined the role of joint ventures in the U.S. steel industry and concluded that joint ventures served as a substitute for mergers forbidden by the Justice Department. Since the Fusfeld study, things have changed drastically for integrated domestic producers. Competition from imports and domestic mini- mills have forced steel firms into bankruptcies and missive plant closings. The contemporary industry's participation in joint ventures is examined in an attempt to understand steel's restructuring. Today's integrated producers jointly may hold tighter control over raw materials, participate in growing numbers of horizontal Joint ventures , and engage in numerous cooperative enterprises with foreign competitors, particularly the Japanese. Contemporary U.S. producers are becoming increasingly absorbed in the global economy.     

The Market Perception of Convertible Debt Versus Straight Debt: some Empirical Evidence from U.S. Firms and Non-U.S. Firms Listed in the U.S.

Accounting for convertible debt has long been a source of controversy in the accounting profession in the U.S. Current U.S. accounting rules require classifying convertible debt at date of issuance as entirely debt until conversion, despite numerous studies that assert that convertible debt is not entirely debt, but is a blend of debt and equity. Convertible debt has taken on international interest because of the issuance of International Accounting Standard (IAS) 32, Financial Instruments; Disclosure and Presentation, which prescribes reporting separate debt and equity components for convertible debt. This study examines convertible debt issued by U.S. firms and non-U.S. firms listed in the U.S. using a levels approach. Specifically, convertible debt is compared to straight debt and contrary to ex ante expectation, convertible debt was not found to be perceived as being significantly different than straight debt for U.S. firms for any years and is statistically different in only two of the six years tested for non-U.S. firms. The validity of this study's findings is underscored by its research design, which compares convertible debt and straight debt issued by the same firms. The findings suggest that investors regard reported amounts of convertible debt similar to straight debt in their assessment of firm value.     

The demand for imports and exports in the U.S.: A survey

One of the more important issues in applied international economics is the extent to which trade flows adjust to changes in income, relative prices, and exchange rates. In this paper, the literature on the empirical estimation of the demand for imports and exports for the U.S. is surveyed. More precisely, this paper updates earlier surveys by Stern, Francis, and Schumacher (1976) and Goldstein and Khan (1985).