Korean Investment in Indonesia: Survey and Appraisal

This article offers the first systematic survey of Korean direct investment in Indonesia as it has developed during the past three decades. The survey includes a chronology and an overview based on macro level statistics. An assessment of the potential contribution of Korean direct investment to the Indonesian economy draws on both a corporate profile embracing a large number of companies and evidence from a small sample of selected individual firms. The article stresses a fundamental diversity in Korean investment in Indonesia that translates as potential benefits in terms of both new employment creation and technology transfers.     

The Price of Electricity in Indonesia

Persistent shortages of electric power and of capital to fund power system expansion have recently prompted the Indonesian government to allow the private sector to supply electricity. Price has become a controversial issue—both the retail price private producers would charge the public, and the wholesale price at which they would seil in bulk to the state utility, PLN The government has traditionally kept the retail price below cost to support economic development objectives, and subsidies have covered PLN's losses. Opponents of private power argue that without subsidies private suppliers would have to raise the retail price to unacceptable levels—according to PLN, almost 50% more per kilowatt-hour than its own price. The paper assesses PLN's claim by quantifying hidden subsidies, and demonstrates that, if these were properly taken into account, the average retail price per kilowatt-hour for 1980–93 should have been 46% higher than it was.     

The Tourism Boom in Indonesia

A major development in the Indonesian economy during the latter pan of the 1980s has been the growth in non-oil exports, particularly from the manufacturing sector. However a development less remarked upon over the same period has been the expansion of the Indonesian tourist industry. This paper explores the reasons for this growth and examines whether the government's ambitious targets for further expansion of the sector can be realised. It also looks at the potential of the tourist sector for generating productive employment opportunities and increased foreign exchange earnings over the Repelita V period and beyond.     

The Demography of Indonesia in Comparative Perspective

Having reduced its fertility rate over the past 40 years, Indonesia has reached a new demographic crossroad. Its fertility rate is now around 2.5 births per woman, which, if sustained, would add substantial numbers to Indonesia's population in the future. There are concerns within Indonesia that the present level of population growth is an obstacle to continued economic development and, accordingly, that fertility should be reduced to the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman as soon as possible. Yet a comparative perspective indicates that countries such as Singapore, Japan, and Thailand are concerned about the effects that their very low rates of fertility are having on their labour forces and their rates of population ageing. This article suggests that with the right policy settings Indonesia can avoid this outcome yet continue to reduce its fertility. It discusses the implications of Indonesia's population growth and distribution for its economy, as well as the poor quality of demographic data.     

Bank Indonesia and The Recent Crisis

This paper is a personal note describing the crisis as it unfolded while the writer was a key player in Indonesia's macroeconomic management. The crisis is seen as multi-faceted. It originated externally from a shock in the currency market that triggered a downward spiral from currency depreciation to fully-fledged crisis. The currency shock that hit the rupiah in July 1997 exposed in sequence the flaws embedded in the banking sector, the economic system, the social and the political system, flaws that had been obscured by long years of good economic performance. Through a complicated process of contagion and feedback effects—market disturbances, policy responses and market reactions—Indonesia deteriorated from a relatively well managed economy to the “worst case” among the Asian crisis economies. The paper discusses this process, the IMF's role, the bank closure issue, the currency board controversy and the author's dismissal as Governor of Bank Indonesia.     

The costs of reducing deforestation in Indonesia

In this second contribution to the Policy Dialogue, Colin Hunt emphasises the large contribution that oil palm plantations and the pulp and paper industry have been making to Indonesia's economic growth in recent years, notwithstanding the environmental consequences of such activities. The implication is that avoided deforestation can be expected to have a significant negative impact on segments of the population who would benefit from the business and employment opportunities that would otherwise be generated, directly or indirectly. Palm oil companies typically spend about three dollars on goods, services and labour for every dollar of profit. The author argues that any compensation package for avoided deforestation needs to include all the potential beneficiaries of palm oil production, not just the palm oil companies, and to generate economic activity similar to that being replaced. (Ed.)     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

Dollarising Indonesia

The rupiah's record of instability, both recently and over the long term, suggests it is worthwhile to investigate options for radical monetary reform. An option currently receiving attention elsewhere is official dollarisation, under which a country ceases to issue a domestic currency and makes a foreign currency its official currency. This paper discusses the costs and benefits of dollarisation in Indonesia, the steps involved in dollarisation, and some economic and political implications of dollarisation.     

The Structure of Protection in Indonesia in 1989 1

Around the mid-1980s, Indonesia's protectionist regime supported an industrial structure in which industries were mainly oriented towards producing for the domestic market. Since then, trade policies have shifted to a more outward-looking strategy, stimulating the growth and diversification of non-oil manufactured exports. This paper attempts to quantify the nominal and effective rates of protection resulting from trade policies at the end of the 1980s. After an introduction in which the 1989 trade policies are discussed, estimates of nominal and effective rates of protection are presented. It is shown that though the level of protection has declined since 1987, it still varies widely across economic sectors. Furthermore, despite the more open trade strategy, the paper's findings show that the trade regime remains biased against exports. Finally, by examining some trade policy issues, the paper presents further ways of rationalising the structure of protection in Indonesia's industrial sector.     

The Surge of Asian NIC Investment into Indonesia 1

Since 1987 a dramatic increase in both domestic and foreign investment in Indonesia, most of it in export-oriented activities, has occurred in response to improvements in a previously unattractive investment climate and in the country's trade regime. Most striking has been the rise in investment by Asia's four ‘newly-industrialising countries’ (NICs): Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore. This paper analyses the factors contributing to this increase and the investment patterns of the four countries. It then focuses on investment in the manufacturing sector, where most of the NIC investments have taken place. The relative importance of each country as a source of investment in individual sectors and industries is examined. The paper concludes that this recent investment surge may yield net social benefits for Indonesia, provided the country continues to adhere to sound macroeconomic and export-promoting policies.