我国外商直接投资地区分布影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据模型

外商直接投资(FDI)在我国空间分布的显著非均衡性引发了大量有关FDI区位选择的经验研究,但相关研究往往忽视了FDI的空间依赖性对其区域分布的影响.基于此,本文选取我国1990-2004年28个省区的数据资料,从地区固定效应和时间固定效应两方面对空间面板数据模型进行估计,考察FDI的空间相关性对我国FDI地区分布的影响.研究发现,空间面板数据模型对现实FDI地区分布的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国各省FDI的区位分布存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区吸引外资的增加能够带动本地区吸引更多的外商投资.     

FDI与OFDI对技术创新的影响——基于空间溢出视角

相比传统的封闭式技术创新,在开放的国际环境背景下,双向FDI是有效的技术创新提升路径之一.文章构建了双向FDI与技术创新的理论框架,结合2010-2019年省级面板数据,分析了FDI、OFDI、技术创新均值的空间分异特征和技术创新的空间相关性,并利用动态空间杜宾模型实证检验了FDI、OFDI对技术创新的作用机制.研究结果显示:FDI、OFDI、技术创新高值区主要分布在东部沿海地区;中国区域技术创新的空间相关性较显著,技术创新具有明显的空间聚集效应;FDI显著促进了中国的技术创新,但FDI的空间溢出效应对技术创新的影响不明显;OFDI的逆向技术溢出与空间溢出对中国技术创新只有较为微弱的促进作用;FDI、OFDI促进中国东中西部技术创新水平呈现明显的区域性差异.     

集聚、扩散与FDI空间演化——基于中国省级数据的研究

本文采用空间计量学的方法,在描述我国FDI空间演化轨迹的基础上,建立了一个FDI地区分布决定因素的空间模型,运用1987-2007年的面板数据,分析我国FDI空间演化的规律。计量结果发现,集聚效应对于吸引我国FDI有着很大程度的影响,相邻省份之间的空间溢出效应促使FDI更多的是由核心省份向周边省份扩散。并根据结论提出了引导FDI空间的合理转移,缩小地区差距的政策建议。     

中国船舶工业全要素生产率空间格局及其影响因素研究

利用中国规模以上工业企业数据库,对2004-2013年我国船舶工业的基本空间格局进行描述,在此基础上使用LP法和SFA法测算我国船舶工业企业全要素生产率,分析了我国船舶工业全要素生产率的整体变动、增长贡献、空间分异等情况。基于以SFA法的估计结果,通过探索性空间数据分析方法对2004-2013年船舶工业全要素生产率及分解项进行空间自相关分析,进而探讨了我国船舶工业全要素生产率空间分异的影响因素,并使用空间面板计量模型对影响因素进行分析。     

我国政府行为市场化与FDI实证研究

改革开放以来,我国利用外资取得了巨大成就,但是这种成就与政府行为市场化是否相关,本文构造了政府行为市场化的相关指标,选取1983～2008年的数据对FDI与政府行为市场化进行了实证分析。研究发现FDI与政府行为市场化之间存在着长期稳定均衡关系;FDI、政府参与经济资源分配比重、政府从微观经济领域退出是单向因果关系;FDI与政府参与、经济资源分配互为双向因果关系;FDI与政府职能转变、政府从微观经济领域退出呈现稳定的关系,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。     

物流产业效率评价及与FDI质量相关性分析——基于2002-2011年数据的实证

在运用三阶段DEA模型对2002-2011年我国物流产业投入产出效率进行评价及效率影响因素分析的基础上,从“低质量的数量扩张特征FDI”和“高技术知识密集型FDI”视角,分析FDI对我国物流产业效率的影响.研究结论:①我国物流产业效率逐年提升,但从规模报酬角度看仍处于规模偏小阶段;②在剔除环境变量与随机变量的影响后,我国物流产业实际效率值变小了;③FDI质量对我国物流产业效率影响比较大.FDI的技术含量、盈利能力和本地化程度与物流产业效率均成正相关,而FDI的平均规模与物流产业效率成负相关.最后根据我国物流产业实情提出相关政策建议.     

FDI进入对我国区域资本流动的影响

本文从区域资本流动的角度研究FDI对地区资本的影响。我们在新古典经济理论的框架下建立了一个简单的两地区竞争模型来分析FDI对区域资本流动的影响机制,结果表明,FDI的进入会引起地区资本在区域内形成一个先流入(FDI进入的地区)后流出的过程。借鉴空间计量的研究方法,我们在实证方程中引入FDI的空间滞后项,实证的结果支持了模型得到的结论。检验结果表明,在全国范围内FDI对进入地区存在挤出效应,FDI的进入导致了地区资本从我国西部流向东部,从而加剧了我国地区经济发展的不平衡。     

中国FDI区位分布的空间效应研究

目前关于我国FDI区位选择因素的大部分实证研究都是建立在双边框架内,考虑第三方效应并从城市角度进行的研究还少有涉及。本文在新近发展起来的"第三国效应"理论基础上,运用空间面板计量方法,对1985—2005年期间我国30个省市区的154个地级及以上城市的FDI区位分布的空间效应进行检验。发现全样本154个城市的FDI之间存在显著的空间效应,周边城市的FDI增量可以增加某城市的FDI流入量,周边城市的市场规模越大某城市的FDI流入越多,各城市的FDI流入也受到周边城市FDI不可测因素的影响。对三大地区内部、三大地区之间及长、珠三角与三大地区之间等不同子样本的FDI空间效应的检验,发现东、中、西部地区FDI的主导类型分别为集聚垂直复合型、受限的集聚垂直复合型和水平型。     

文化差异、地理距离与主要投资国在我国的FDI空间分布格局

构建了考虑空间滞后因子的引力模型,采用2001—2010年我国各省份国别FDI数据对文化差异及地理距离对我国FDI空间格局的影响进行了实证检验。研究发现:各国在我国范围内的实际直接投资存在较为明显的"路径依赖"和集聚效应,文化差异与FDI的关系日益表现为明显的"S型"关系,并且其对我国FDI的空间分布格局的影响日益凸显;而地理距离对各国在我国各省的FDI的影响表现出较为明显的减弱趋势,但临海省份吸收各国的FDI所具备的优势却在增强。     

中国省域FDI对环境污染的影响研究

首先采用熵权法对我国大陆31个省市2001—2016年的环境污染数据进行处理,得到其环境污染综合指数,在此基础上使用Moran指数和地理集中度指数分析FDI和环境污染的空间分布和地理分布,结果表明:FDI、环境污染在空间分布上均具有空间自相关性;并且FDI与环境污染有强正相关关系,FDI集聚度高的地区,污染集聚也高。使用空间计量模型(SEM,SLM)进一步分析FDI对环境污染的影响,结果发现:FDI集聚与污染集聚均具有空间溢出效应,FDI在地理上的集聚对当地或邻近省域环境污染具有负效应,此外,经济增长对环境污染具有负效应,提升就业者平均教育年限、完善地区基础设施、加强经济对外开放在一定程度上有助于改善环境质量。     

我国房地产税制的现状及改革构想

房地产税制是维护房地产市场公平竞争，实现国家对房地产业宏观调控的有力杠杆。然而，我国现行的房地产税制却存在税费不分、税制不统一、税制结构不合理等诸多问题。严重影响了其对房地产业应有的宏观调控作用。因此，适时地推进房地产税制的改革应是当务之急，应统一内外税制，合理界定税费的范围，建立统一、规范、合理的房地产税收体系。     

上海生态农业发展影响因素研究

文章分析了上海生态农业发展的影响因素,并利用计量模型进行检验,认为影响上海生态农业发展的主要因素有农业基础设施、农业劳动力资源、农业产业化水平、农业科技实力状况。     

Public participation in forestry in Turkey

Recently public participation in forestry has been seriously considered in Turkey. Participation is however quite a challenge for a country with a long tradition of top-down management and a strong bottom-up dependence on public provisioning. In such a setting, it may not be surprising that the experiences with public participation in forestry in Turkey are mixed. There are some positive initiatives like the creation of farmer's cooperatives and NGOs, but their role is quite limited and small of scale. This paper is bringing together different views based on existing studies in Turkish related to Turkey's experience with implementing public participation in forestry.     

西部地区人力资本投资与知识化发展

人力资本投资在推动知识化发展的过程中存在自增强机制，通过促进人力资本保值增值，进行人力资源合理配置，改善配置环境和配置政策、完善配套措施，有助于充分发挥这一机制的功能，从而实现西部地区知识化发展。     

Inter-enterprise arrears in economies in transition

In the context of economies in transition, the paper argues that an excessive liquidity squeeze could throw the economy into a persistent state of low economic activity. In such bad equilibrium, enterprise transactions become largely demonetized, with a chain of arrears, a form of involuntary credit, spreading over the entire system. The empirical analysis of the Romanian experience seems to support the view advanced in the paper.     

Is wealth found in the soil or in the brain? Investing in farm people in Malawi

Should a typical developing country invest more in agriculture or education? At what stage of development is it optimal to invest more in each of these sectors? These are important questions that governments of developing countries grapple with when designing investment plans. In this paper, I propose a soil–human capital conceptual framework of development and use it to explain estimates of agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi. I use panel survey data for Malawi and rely on the exogenous education policy changes and spatial variation in access to schooling to identify effects of schooling on agricultural incomes. In addition, I correct for selection into income activities within a panel data and instrumental variables estimation framework. I find annual agricultural returns to schooling in Malawi of 3%–4% after correcting for selection and unobserved heterogeneity and 7% in the uncorrected specifications. I also find consistently higher returns to schooling in the nonagricultural sector for those not living in the village of birth and higher returns in the agricultural sector for those living in the village of birth. Given the size of the farm sector, wealth in Malawi is still in the soil, but that future growth in wealth depends on human capital investments.     

Gender Differences in Time-Poverty in Rural Mozambique

Based on time-use data from a 2013 primary household survey, this study examines the nature and extent of time-poverty experienced by men and women in peasant households in Mozambique. The main findings indicate that while women's labor allocation to economic activities is comparable to that of men, household chores and care work are almost entirely women's responsibility. The heavy burden of responsibilities leave women significantly time-poorer compared to men. Women's time-poverty worsens when the burden of simultaneous care work is taken into account. In addition, due to multitasking, the work tends to be more taxing. The examination of determinants of time-poverty shows that common measures of individual economic power, such as assets and education, do not necessarily affect the time-poverty faced by women.     

2010年黑龙江省宏观经济展望

受世界金融危机的影响,从2008年下半年起黑龙江省经济持续走低,2009年一季度跌入谷底。2009年前三季度,在国家扩大内需的政策刺激下,黑龙江省经济企稳回升,但经济运行中还存在出口下滑、物价水平较低等问题,经济下行的压力仍然存在,经济持续回升的基础尚待巩固。展望2010年,国家将继续实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,随着政策效应的逐步释放,内需对经济的拉动作用仍将十分强劲,另外,随着世界经济的复苏,黑龙江省外贸形势也将逐渐好转,在＂投资、消费、出口＂这三驾马车的共同作用下,2010年黑龙江省经济将步入全面复苏通道。     

Agricultural Roots in Intergenerational Transfers in China

Economists have been interested in the motivations of intergenerational transfers, for different motivations affect the effectiveness of anti-poverty public transfers. However, one’s motivation is largely shaped by culture and social conventions. This paper sheds light on the influence of rice cultivation in intergenerational transfers in China. This is also the first time that economists consider cultural factors in the study of intergenerational transfers. Cultivating rice requires elaborate irrigation systems and large amounts of labor input so that rice farmers have to cooperate extensively with their neighbors, which has gradually shaped people’s value to be more inter-dependent. Based on micro-level data from CHARLS and sub-national rice data from China, our empirical results show strong evidence that individuals from rice regions are more likely to provide economic support for their parents. A one-percentage point increase in the share of rice in the total grain planting area will raise transfer incidence by 0.2–0.4 percentage points, and rice region residents transfer on average 300–400 yuan more in 2011 and about 1,000 yuan more in 2013 to their parents than those from wheat regions. Meanwhile they are more inclined to rely on their adult children for elderly support. Urban citizens are less affected. Using instrumental variable estimation, we are able to prove the effect is causal. With future continued deepening of population aging in China, relying on children for old age support may become more and more unrealistic, the government needs to coordinate the relationship between public transfer and private transfer to ensure the quality of life for the elderly.     

Trade-offs in sulfur emission trading in Europe

How to implement emission trading is one question in the current negotiations on a new sulfur protocol in Europe. Whereas the current protocol stipulates a 30 percent uniform reduction, national emission ceilings included in the proposed new protocol imply differentiated reductions. In addition, emission and fuel standards are proposed. This paper examines the costs and environmental impacts of emission trading. Emission trading combined with regulations is a new element in the paper. Calculations using the RAINS (Regional Acidification INformation and Simulation) model suggest that overlaying emission trading on regulations not only reduces the cost savings but has beneficial impacts as well: ecosystem protection is not changed and significant decreases in environmental benefits for countries are largely avoided. Emission trading can also be used to decrease emissions and increase ecosystem protection. If combined with existing legislation, emission trading minimizes losses in expected environmental benefits for some countries, and most countries gain. However, the initial distribution of emission ceilings has to be used so that some countries are not confronted with higher costs. Trade-offs appear to exist between the use of emission trading to achieve cost savings on the one hand, and ecosystem protection and distributional equity on the other.