Valuation of travel time for international long-distance travel – results from the Fehmarn Belt stated choice experiment

The geographical scope of travel varies from short distances in urban areas to long distances across cities and countries. While urban travel has been widely analysed in the literature, travel over longer distances and particularly across countries, has received much less attention. While this may be justified due to the number of travellers it cannot be justified when looking at the mileage consumption and its resulting environmental impacts. In this paper, we investigate international long-distance travel preferences related to travel between Scandinavia and Central Europe with particular focus on the Fehmarn Belt fixed link between Germany and Denmark to be opened in 2021. To facilitate long-term demand forecasts for the future fixed link, stated preference data were collected in 2011. Based on these data a discrete choice model for long-distance travellers was developed in order to estimate the value of travel time savings (VTTS). The final model, which was formulated as a nested logit model and included Box–Cox transformed travel time and cost attributes, revealed several interesting findings. Firstly, we found damping effects in both cost and time – most strongly in cost. Secondly, we found significant interactions among travel cost and time, and journey characteristics, such as distance and duration. This had direct impact on the VTTS, which was shown to decrease with distance and duration. Thirdly, we found that air travel implies a higher average VTTS, which is to be expected but rarely supported by empirical evidence.     

Using values of travel time savings for toll roads: avoiding some common errors

There are many empirical studies on the estimation of values of travel time savings (VTTS), with varying degrees of rigour and relevance, mostly based on the observation that travellers are prepared to spend money to save time. These values are applied to both forecasting the effects of speed changes on behaviour and also for estimation of the social benefit of such savings, in order to calculate value for money of spending public funds on transport investments. The sources of empirical information on such values are not always compatible with the models and software within which the results are used. In recent years, an increasingly important application has been to calculate the potential revenue from tolled roads, and networks with user charges, which offer high speeds at a higher price: here the important issue is not hypothetical willingness to pay, but the actual money that will be handed over. This changes the focus from hypothetical to bankable VTTS. It is shown that some common practices risk substantial error in calculation, affecting the sharing of risk between public and private sectors. A particularly important case is where an average value is taken as representative of a skewed distribution of values—in these circumstances there will be a tendency to overestimate the revenue, and underestimate the traffic impact, of a charge, because for a given mean VTTS, there will be a smaller number of individuals who are prepared to pay the toll. To correct this bias, the main tasks are: establishing a relevant set of trip-purpose specific VTTS distributions and selecting a way of handling the distributions in patronage forecasting, growing VTTS through time, treating the VTTS of car passengers, and establishing an appropriate set of rules for converting disaggregated (or heterogeneous) components of travel time values into a single trip value appropriate to the project being evaluated. Other related problems of the use of values of time relate to the assumption that these values grow in proportion to income, and the extent to which they are confounded with other effects.One troublesome feature is that most, and perhaps all, of the problems discussed tend to produce biases in the same direction, namely to risk overestimating revenue, in the short and long run. This produces a tendency to appraisal bias, which can distort the contractual confidence between partners. Overall, it is likely that current assumptions are underestimating the degree of toll-avoiding behaviour, and overestimating the financial viability of projects.     

Give public transit a chance: A comparative analysis of competitive travel time in public transit modal share

Extensive research has found that people are more likely to choose the transport alternative which offers shorter travel time. But few studies approached the role of travel time across different transport alternatives and cities. This research assesses the influence of competitive travel time between car and public transit in public transit modal share for commute trips. São Paulo, New York, and Tokyo were selected to perform the analysis. A Fractional Logistic Regression in the binary form was drawn, and a competitive travel time index was calculated based on the Car/Public transit travel time ratio weighted by the number of the employed population at the origin and jobs at destinations in the absence of an Origin-Destination matrix. Findings suggest that, though car ownership was identified as the major factor, Car/Public transit travel time ratio is positively associated with the increase of public transit modal share. Furthermore, the Car/Public transit travel time ratio effect in public transit modal share consistently increases as people get increased access to cars.     

Effects of parking and cordon charge policies on tourist's modal shift in central business district of Mashhad city,Iran

The second largest holy city of the world, Mashhad, attracts high volumes of tourists and pilgrims every year. Most visitors travel by private car and are a source of considerable funds for the local economy. Among road users, tourists as one of the major traveller categories in Mashhad city behave differently due to the particular trip purpose. The aim of this research is to model tourist's shifting modes of travel behaviour when policy measures, such as the parking and cordon fares, are implemented. The tourists’ preferences were examined using binary logit analysis when different options of travel cost and time scenarios were provided. Results indicate that travel time, parking cost, cordon cost, education level and vehicle price influence tourist's modal choice. In addition, the finding shows that congestion pricing will be more effective than a parking pricing strategy in encouraging switching of modes.     

Changing trip behavior in a higher education institution: The role of parking fees

Higher education institutions are major trip-generating locations and the transportation to and from them has negative environmental influences. To discourage car owners from solo driving and encourage them to use more environmentally friendly travel modes, it is important to understand what factors influence their travel mode choice. Using a discrete choice model, we examined the motivations to leave the car at home, with and without parking fee. Besides parking fees, we examined the effects of other variables known to predict commuting choice, such as time and social discomfort, pro-environmental attitudes, reduced vehicle maintenance expenses and awareness of alternative commuting options. Results show that adding a parking fee not only increased the tendency to leave the car at home, it also influenced the relative weight given to the considerations that determine to leave the car at home. Specifically, after the introduction of a parking fee, the previously significant impacts of pro-environmental attitudes and social discomfort on leaving the car at home became non-significant, and the impacts of other, more instrumental factors (e.g., time discomfort, costs related to car ownership and maintenance, time wasted searching for a parking space and in traffic jams) which were insignificant beforehand, became the significant predictors. Parking fees were found to be effective and can change to accommodate different policies (revenue collection, pollution reduction, and students’ discomfort). The implications of such a study are the trade-off between monetary (parking fee) and non-monetary variables to accommodate more sustainable traffic management.     

Travel using managed lanes: An application of a stated choice model for Houston,Texas

Managed lane (ML) travel adds flexibility, but also complexity, to travel choices. Stated choice models (SCMs) are often used for modeling complex transportation choices such as these in an effort to predict demand for these travel options. The design methods for SCMs have evolved from simple orthogonal designs to more sophisticated designs such as D-efficient design that can increase efficiency in estimation. We used three different survey design strategies to produce the stated preference portion of surveys, which were used to elicit travel choices for a sample of Houston travelers. Apart from the D-efficient design we also used random and adaptive random designs to generate attribute levels. There were observable differences in choice behavior depending on what design strategy was used. These differences appear to influence estimates of the value of travel time savings (VTTS) obtained from the random parameter logit (RPL) models estimated using these data. This, in turn, would greatly impact the percentage of travelers predicted to use the MLs.The adaptive random strategy was superior to the other design methods in several categories, and it had similar efficiency to the D-efficient design. However, the mean of VTTS estimate obtained from a D-efficient design was closer to what is typically found in the literature. The difference was considerable and could greatly influence traffic and revenue estimates for the MLs, illustrating the importance of the survey design strategy.     

Developing advanced route choice models for heavy goods vehicles using GPS data

This paper presents a novel application in route choice modelling using Global Positioning System (GPS) data, focussing on heavy goods vehicles which typically make longer journeys with decisions potentially underpinned by different priorities from those used by car drivers. The scope of the study is larger than many previous ones, using the entire road network of England. Making use of the error components model put forward for route choice by Frejinger and Bierlaire (2007), the work reveals low elasticities in response to changes in travel time, reflecting the limited opportunity for avoiding specific roads on long distance journeys by heavy goods vehicles.     

Structures of commitment in mode use: a comparison of Switzerland, Germany and Great Britain

Travellers commit themselves to particular behaviours through the ownership of cars and season tickets. They trade a large one-off payment for low or zero marginal cost at the point of use. It can be assumed that these commitments influence travel behaviour. To the knowledge of the authors there is no literature which addresses the choice between the commitment to the one or the other mode and its impacts on travel behaviour.The paper presents models using structural equation modelling to test a-priori hypotheses on the paths linking car-availability, season-ticket-ownership and modal usage. Modal usage is operationalised as the number of trips by car, public transport, or as the distances travelled by car or public transport. The models are based on three different surveys: Switzerland, Germany and Great Britain. The results confirm the dominance of car-availability, which drives the other variables, but the relationships are more complicated than generally assumed.     

The sensitivity of the valuation of travel time savings to the specification of unobserved effects

The behavioural value of travel time savings (VTTS) remains a controversial data item in the evaluation of transport projects. Over the last 40 years we have seen numerous empirical studies on the amount that an individual or firm is willing to pay to save a unit of travel time (or more precisely transfer a fixed amount of time from one activity to another). With a few exceptions, the majority of empirical studies have used essentially the same data metric and model estimation procedure. The most popular approaches have used either revealed preference (RP) or stated preference (SP) data and a multinomial logit (MNL) choice model to identify marginal rates of substitution between travel time and price of a trip. A few more advanced studies have integrated RP and SP data and have explored the gains in behavioural power of models that relax, to varying degrees, the underlying assumptions that produce the MNL model. This paper highlights the potential gains from a more carefully considered structure of the unobserved effects which condition the form of a discrete choice model, and hence the possible misinference from the simpler MNL specification. We demonstrate the implication for VTTS estimates of serial correlation between the SP treatments, covariance amongst alternatives, presence of individual specific (random) effects or heterogeneity, and differential variance of the unobserved effects.     

Mode substitution effect of urban cycle tracks: Case study of a downtown street in Toronto,Canada

With the growing environmental and health concerns associated with automobile dependence, municipalities across the Western world are investing in cycling facilities to encourage drivers and transit users to take up cycling as a mode of transportation, a process that is known as the travel mode substitution. This study explored the potential impact of cycle tracks on short-term travel mode substitution behavior. We present a case study of Sherbourne Street, located in downtown Toronto, Canada, that was redeveloped in 2012 to include a cycle track that replaced an existing bicycle lane. A street intercept survey was conducted in Fall, 2014, to record quantitative data on current and retrospective travel behaviors of cyclists (n = 214). A mode substitution effect was observed, with 38% of the respondents reporting that they would use travel modes other than cycling before the Sherbourne Street redevelopment, for making a trip to their current destination; the majority of them were previously transit users. Binary logistic regression models indicated that younger cyclists were less likely to substitute a car trip for a cycling trip. Those who did not use Sherbourne Street previously were more likely to substitute their travel mode. Improved safety was the most commonly reported reason for mode substitution. This study contributes to a limited literature by providing much needed insights into the impacts of cycle tracks on travel behavior in a North American context. This paper can also inform the development of easy-to-implement survey/audit tools to be used by professionals at the community level.     

Exploring the effectiveness of bus rapid transit a prototype agent-based model of commuting behavior

The introduction of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT), typically involving the use of exclusive bus lanes and related bus priority measures, is increasingly advocated as a flexible and cost-effective way of improving the attractiveness of public transit in congested urban areas by reducing travel times and variability. These schemes typically involve the reallocation of road space for exclusive use by buses, presenting commuters with potentially competing incentives: buses on BRT routes can run faster and more efficiently than buses running in general traffic, potentially attracting commuters to public transit and reducing congestion through modal shift from cars. However, a secondary impact may also exist; remaining car users may be presented with less congested road space, improving their journey times and simultaneously acting as an incentive for some bus-users to revert to the car. To investigate the potential for these primary and secondary impacts, we develop a prototype agent-based model to investigate the nature of these interactions and how they play out into system-wide patterns of modal share and travel times. The model allows us to test the effects of multiple assumptions about the behaviors of individual agents as they respond to different incentives introduced by BRT policy changes, such as the implementation of exclusive bus lanes, increased bus frequency, pre-boarding ticket machines and express stops, separately and together. We find that, under our assumptions, these policies can result in significant improvements in terms of individual journey times, modal shift, and length of rush hour. We see that the addition of an exclusive bus lane results in significant improvements for both car users and bus riders. Informed with appropriate empirical data relating to the behavior of individual agents, the geography and the specific policy interventions, the model has the potential to aid policymakers in examining the effectiveness of different BRT schemes, applied to broader environments.     

Identification of determinants for rescheduling travel mode choice and transportation policies to reduce car use in urban areas

This paper presents a qualitative analysis about the determinants related to rescheduling travel mode decisions during the activity scheduling process. Notably, we were interested to study changes between intention and behavior. Data used came from an in-depth Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) follow up survey to habitual drivers carried out during the implementation of a panel survey. An interpretative qualitative method based on Analytic Induction was used to cope with the complex nature of rescheduling decisions and the characteristics of the data. The Theory of Planned Behavior has been used to gain a better understanding of the reasons associated with rescheduling travel mode decisions and to obtain a possible explanation of the phenomena studied. In our sample, 12 codes were identified as the main determinants of travel mode changing. Main reasons for rescheduling a travel mode are different considering gender, age, and the type of travel mode change. Main reasons for changing a nonprivate preplanned travel mode to a private travel mode are different considering the type of travel mode preplanned. New determinants of rescheduling decisions different from those associated with other activity scheduling decisions previously identified emerge when analyzing travel mode changes. A number of important sustainable transportation policies to reduce car use in urban areas are derived from the results of this study.     

An empirical assessment of Dutch citizens' preferences for spatial equality in the context of a national transport investment plan

This study presents empirical insights into Dutch citizens' preferences for spatial equality in the context of decision-making regarding the composition of a national transport investment plan. To the best of our knowledge, our study is the first study worldwide which empirically investigates citizens' preferences for the spatial distribution of benefits accruing from a transport investment plan. We conducted two Stated Choice experiments: one involving an investment plan for travel time savings, the other involving an investment plan for traffic safety. Our results show that in the context of travel time savings, a vast majority of citizens has a strong preference for spatial equality. When the investment program involves traffic safety improvements, the share of citizens that has a preference for spatial equality is considerably smaller. Specifically, using a Latent class discrete choice analysis we identified distinct segments. The first segment has a very strong preference for the investment program having the largest total reduction in traffic deaths; the second segment assigns a substantial value to an equal distribution of reductions of traffic deaths across the Netherlands. Highly educated citizens are found to have a relatively strong preference for spatial equality as compared to low educated citizens. Contrary to our expectations, explanatory variables such as political orientation, income, car ownership and region of residence do not appear to associate with citizens' preferences for spatial equality.     

Interdependences between household residential and car ownership behavior: a life history analysis

Once a transportation system is built or a land-use policy is carried out, it influences people’s travel behavior and their lives for a long time period. It is therefore important for policy makers to understand people’s decisions on travel behavior and lives over a longer time period. However, little has been known about the interdependences between life domains, especially over the life course (i.e., biographical interdependences) in the context of residential and car ownership behavior. To fill this gap, this study aims to clarify households’ biographical interdependences relating to residential and car ownership biographies by explicitly incorporating the influence of household structure and employment/education biographies. Biography is defined based on a general concept of mobility that indicates a change occurring in a life domain. For this purpose, a Web-based life history survey was conducted in November 2010 and 1000 households living in major Japanese cities provided valid data. Aggregate analysis and exhaustive CHAID analysis were carried out, focusing on the occurrence times of mobilities in each biography. Results confirm obvious two-way cause–effect relationships over the life course between residential and car ownership biographies that are further influenced by household structure and employment/education biographies. Especially, not only short-term but also long-term state dependence and future expectations within and across life domains are clarified. Household structure and employment/education biographies are found to be more influential on residential biography than car ownership biography. Though residential biography is seen to be more influential on car ownership biography, the other two biographies also play an important role in explaining the car ownership mobility decision. All these findings suggest the necessity of developing intra-domain and inter-domain biographical interdependence models with flexible structures that capture the influences of state dependence and future expectations over different time scales in the life course in a unified framework.     

Home-end and activity-end preferences for access to and egress from train stations in the Copenhagen region

Increasing public transport use with the aim of improving the sustainability of cities should focus not only on enhancing level and quality of the service offered, but also on understanding determinants of the choice of access and egress modes to and from the railway network. This study analyzes the difference in preferences at the home-end and activity-end for travelers who have chosen train as their main travel mode while investigating the effect of policy variables such as car parking availability, bicycle parking availability and type, and bicycle on train possibility. Specifically, this study analyzes the choices between five transport modes (i.e., “walk,” “bicycle,” “car driver,” “car passenger,” “bus”) for 2921 home-end and 3658 activity-end trips. Joint mixed logit models are specified and estimated to account for heteroscedasticity and correlation across alternative modes as well as taste heterogeneity across travelers. Model estimates and pseudo-elasticities uncover the importance of travel time and underline how the improvement of walkability, bikeability, and bus service would contribute significantly to the increase in the probability of choosing sustainable modes to and from train stations. Moreover, model results emphasize the role of bicycle parking in terms of the sheer number of spaces to be increased as well as covered places to be offered at the activity end, de facto giving the possibility to leave a bicycle at that end during the night. Lastly, model results show that it is a matter of not only time and trip characteristics, but also traveler characteristics, occupation, and purpose.     

The spatial characteristics and influencing factors of modal accessibility gaps: A case study for Guangzhou,China

This paper presents an analysis of the spatial characteristic of the modal accessibility gap (MAG) in Guangzhou based on travel times for public transport and cars to public centers calculated by the Travel O-D point Intelligent Query System (TIQS). Four spatial regression models are used to investigate the effect on the MAG of six factors of the built environment (distance to city public centers, residential density, landuse mix, bus stop density, metro station density and road network density). The results show that travel time for a given origin to destination (OD) trip is likely to be larger by public transport than by car, especially for a trip of longer travel time. The MAG values of all the communities are larger than 0, indicating that when compared with public transport, travelling by car takes less travel time for individuals. Residential density, land-use mix, bus stop density and metro rail station density have significant negative direct impacts and indirect impacts (spatial spillover effects) on MAG, which indicates that appropriate increase in community residential density, providing diversified service facilities within a community, and improving public transport supply are beneficial to promote modal shift. Specifically, the role of metro rail is greater than that of buses. However, the road network density has significant direct positive impacts on MAG, and its spillover effect is also significantly positive, which indicates that building more roads is not an effective way to narrow the accessibility gap between public transport and cars but may facilitate more car travel instead.     

Transport mode choice in South East Asia: Investigating the relationship between transport users’ perception and travel behaviour in Johor Bahru,Malaysia

The worldwide increase in private car dependency poses a set of significant environmental, economic and social sustainability challenges that continue to undermine the urban quality of life. Rapid motorisation, particularly in South East Asia (SEA), has emerged as a global concern given the region’s cumulative population, rate of industrialisation, and large-scale urbanisation. Thus, there is a compelling need to enhance our understanding of the underlying dynamics of how people perceive and use transportation such that transport planning is better placed to address the current, unsustainable travel patterns in SEA. Despite this need, there has been relatively limited SEA-based research that has endeavoured to examine travel perceptions and transport mode choice from a non-instrumental perspective. This research redresses this deficit by investigating the relationship between transport users’ perceptions and travel behaviours within SEA, with a particular focus on psychosocial drivers of transport mode choice interfaced with more traditional instrumental measures.Spatially stratified survey data have been collected in a case study area, Johor Bahru, Malaysia, comprising users from different transport user groups. Employing regression modelling, drivers of individual’s travel behaviour are examined. Results highlight the merit in recognising the role of non-instrumental motives alongside instrumental motives to explain transport mode choice. We conclude by highlighting that transport mode choices are motivated by a range of locational, socio-demographic, psychological and cultural determinants. The current research has contributed to a better understanding of transport mode choice in Johor Bahru and provides a foundation for future SEA-based travel behaviour research. Studies in this area can inform more sustainable travel behaviour in the SEA region.     

Understanding the process that gives rise to household car ownership level changes

Quantitative studies have revealed that changes to the number of cars owned by households are more likely to occur at the time of life events. However, causal explanations of such relationships are either absent or lacking evidence. To address this knowledge gap, this paper presents a qualitative study which enabled the development of a new conceptual framework to explain the process through which the number of cars owned by households changes over time. The framework emerged through an inductive analysis of 15 in-depth biographical interviews and was validated through a mixed methods survey of 184 households located in Bristol (UK). The following mechanisms of the process are identified: Life events alter roles, relationships, spatial contexts and lifestyle preferences. This can lead to a condition of stress which relates to a discrepancy between satisfaction with the current car ownership level and a more desirable alternative. Attempts to adjust to the new situation are made through processes of travel behaviour adaptation and consideration of whether the car ownership level ought to be altered. A propensity to change car ownership level can emerge from this. However, given the effort involved in taking action, households tend to resist making changes to their car ownership level in the short term. Action to change car ownership level is found to often be prompted by another external stimulus such as the receipt of a maintenance bill. A key message from the analysis is that changes in household car ownership level should be considered as the outcome of a continuous process of development over the life course, rather than as discrete decisions.     

Dependence between travel distance,individual socioeconomic and health-related characteristics,and the choice of the travel mode: a cross-sectional study for Kaunas,Lithuania

The aim of this study was to analyse the associations between individual socioeconomic and health-related characteristics, travel distance, and the choice of different travel modes in urban population. A cross-sectional study included 932 adults of Kaunas city, Lithuania. The choice of the travel mode and individual characteristics were self-reported by the participants, and their travel routes were calculated using the geographic information system. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the most significant factors determining the choice of a car, cycling, walking, or public transport. In total, 529 participants reported using a car, of whom 65.8% had medium or high education levels. These participants were more likely to be younger, male, married, and employed. Among bicycle users, statistically significant differences between the employment status, body mass index, and travel distance were observed. Walkers were significantly more likely to be older, those with lower incomes, unemployed, and travelling the shortest distances. The analysis of the travel distance on the choice of the travel mode revealed that men travelled longer distances with a car compared to women. The employment status was significantly associated with travel distance by car or public transport. Employed individuals travelled longer distances by public transport or by car, compared to unemployed individuals. Among bicycle users, we found that people with higher levels of education and overweight individuals cycled the longest distances. Our study emphasizes the importance of considering different individual characteristics when analysing the choice of transport modes. It provides evidence that is relevant for all urban populations on the choice of the transport mode, particularly considering active versus passive transport.     

Choice behavior of tourism destination and travel mode: A case study of local residents in Hangzhou,China

The social and economic growth as result of promoting the rapid development of tourism in China has brought tremendous pressure on the urban transportation systems. Research of travel behavior concerning the characteristics of tourists has provided effective information for transportation planning. Due to different city plans, public transportation system design, car parking design and management, etc., the local situation in developed countries differs from the counterpart in China. However, little research has studied the factors influencing the choice of travel destinations in tourism. The research aims to study the tourism destination and mode choice behavior of tourists and provides suggestions to improve tourism transportation service system. An online questionnaire survey is used to collect data including the travel characteristics and personal attributes of local tourists in different holidays in Hangzhou, China. A multinomial logit model is constructed with the trip destination set as the dependent variable. Results show that age, residential type, car ownership, companion type and holiday length have a significant impact on destination choice. To determine what influences modal choice for such trips, a second logit model is established with travel mode set as the dependent variable with the explanatory variables of age, gender, companion type, car ownership, holiday length and travel destination found to be significant. The results demonstrated that people aged 26 to 44 prefer suburban areas, and they are the main group driving to their travel destination. Public transport use frequency decreases when the destination is located outside of the main tourist area. Finally, suggestions have been proposed to mitigate the congestion and parking problem based on model analysis from the perspective of the bus line setting, transfer improvements, and the policy to limit cars, respectively.