Noise traders, excess volatility, and a securities transactions tax

Proponents of a securities transactions tax have suggested that such a tax may reduce stock return volatility. The argument is that, to the extent that short-term speculative trading volume is the source of excess volatility, a tax that reduces such volume will reduce volatility. In the context of a simple general equilibrium model, it is shown that this partial equilibrium argument is misleading and in large part incorrect. In the absence of a tax, the model generates equilibria in which the risky asset's price exhibits excess volatility and agents engage in excess trading activity owing to the presence of destabilizing noise traders. Within the context of the model, it is shown that, although a transactions tax can reduce the volatility of the risky asset's price, the reduction in price volatility is accompanied by a fall in the asset's price as agents discount the future tax liability associated with risky asset ownership. Consequently, although price volatility may decrease slightly, the fall in equilibrium prices more than compensates, and the volatiltiy of risky asset returns unambiguously increases with the level of the transactions tax.Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve SystemThe conclusions herein are those of the author and do not represent the views of the Federal Reserve Board or any of the Federal Reserve Banks.     

Economic volatility and financial markets: The case of mortgage‐backed securities

The volatility of aggregate economic activity in the United States decreased markedly in the mid‐eighties. The decrease involved several components of GDP and has been linked to a more stable economic environment, identified by smaller shocks, more effective policy, and a diverse set of innovations in technology as well as financial markets. We study one such financial innovation, and document a negative relation between the rapid growth of mortgage‐backed securities and the volatility of GDP and some of its components from the mid‐1970s to the late 1990s. We also document that this relation changed sign, from negative to positive, in the early 2000s.     

Reporting of book-tax differences for financial and tax purposes: A case study

Recent events in financial and tax accounting have brought the issue of financial accounting for tax expenses to the forefront of both the accounting profession and academia. Complexities abound on both sides, from ASC 740/FAS 109 and ASC 740-10/FIN 48 issues on the financial accounting side to the Schedule M-3 and Schedule UTP reporting requirements on the tax side. This complexity has created a vacuum in accounting curricula, as bits and pieces of the total puzzle are covered in the intermediate accounting and tax courses, without a comprehensive, integrated review in one place.     

The effects of tax policy on financial markets: G3 evidence

We investigate the effects of various tax policy innovations on stock market returns. By using a vector autoregressive model that controls for the mutual causality between fiscal policy and financial market performance, we test whether financial markets serve as a transmission mechanism for tax policy innovations. Our findings indicate that indirect taxes have a larger effect on market returns than do labor taxes. Further, corporate tax innovations do not have any statistically significant effect on stock returns. We consider that this finding is a result of a firm's ability to switch between equity financing and bond financing.     

Assessing the impact of an EU financial transactions tax on asset volatility: An event study

Under the context of EMU debt and financial crisis, we assess the impact of EMU's announcement of a Financial Transactions tax (FTT) on bond and equity volatilities for seven countries, namely Germany, France (core EMU), Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal and Spain (periphery EMU). In the absence of historical data on volume and volatility of transactions of such a tax, we utilize the event study methodology. The selected event date considering the FTT announcement was found significant for core EMU's equity portfolio and periphery EMU's bond portfolio. Moreover, under GARCH models, we found that the announcement effect of FTT increases the volatility of both core EMU's equity portfolio as well as periphery EMU's bond portfolio.     

A method for evaluating the extreme risk sources of financial markets: The case of stock markets in China

Risk contagion has attracted increasing research attention in recent years. In this paper, we combined conditional Value at Risk (CVaR), Bayesian quantile regression and Granger causality test to propose a Bayesian CVaR–Granger causality test method, which is an efficient tool in analyzing sources of extreme risks in a financial market. Using this method, we determined the sources of extreme risks in major stock markets in China.     

Gains from structured product markets: The case of reverse-exchangeable securities (RES)

“Structured products” (SP) have recently been introduced onto organized markets in the United States. Payoffs for such financially-engineered securities typically combine stock, bond and contingent claims features. In this paper attention is focused upon reverse-exchangeable securities (RES), an important and rapidly growing segment of the American SP market. First we undertake a replication of RES payout with a linear portfolio of publicly traded securities in a simple no-arbitrage framework. It is thereby possible to estimate theoretically “fair” terms of issuance, and contrast these with actual terms. We conclude that there is a significant pricing bias in favor of the issuing financial institution. Credit enhancement resulting from observed positive correlation between the RES terminal payoff and issuer financial performance is proposed as explanation for the apparent pricing discrepancy. Market completeness and possible tax advantages may also play a role in SP demand and the rapid expansion of this new derivatives market.     

Cross-boundary information sharing in regulatory contexts: The case of financial markets

Most studies about cross-boundary information sharing (CBIS) focus on private or public sector organizations only. There is limited research within regulated environments, which often requires information to be shared among multiple public, private and nonprofit organizations. This paper explores CBIS in different regulatory contexts, with a focus on financial markets in the USA, and finds some unique characteristics in terms of information asymmetries, incentive and governance structures, and structural complexity.     

The stock market effects of a securities transaction tax: Quasi-experimental evidence from Italy

In the aftermath of the financial crisis, in several countries new levies on the financial sector have been proposed and in some cases implemented. We focus in particular on the recent introduction of a securities transaction tax (STT) in Italy. A peculiarity of the Italian STT is that it only concerns stocks of corporations with a market capitalization above € 500 million. We exploit this feature via a differences-in-differences approach – comparing taxed and non-taxed stocks before and after the introduction of the tax – and via a regression discontinuity design – comparing the performance of stocks just above the threshold with those just below. Focusing on the regulated market, we find that the new tax reduced liquidity, but it left transaction volumes and returns substantially unaffected. There is also evidence – although not conclusive – that the tax increased volatility.     

Boundary work and tax regulation: A Bourdieusian view

Boundaries are ubiquitous in modern social life, and the work of creating and maintaining boundaries is particularly evident within regulatory fields. Through the analysis of a recent critical incident in the tax field (Arctic Systems) with which the accounting profession is intimately associated, this paper uses a Bourdieusian lens to unravel the relational complexities of the regulation of tax avoidance at the complex and fuzzy boundary between acceptable and unacceptable tax practice. We develop an alternative, relational interpretation of tax regulation and contribute to a more nuanced understanding of regulatory practice within the tax field that also raises questions about regulatory practice more widely. We conclude by highlighting how a move towards ‘relational’ regulation might contribute to improved understanding of regulatory processes and practices.     

Capturing downside risk in financial markets: the case of the Asian Crisis

Using data on Asian equity markets, we observe that during periods of financial turmoil, deviations from the mean-variance framework become more severe, resulting in periods with additional downside risk to investors. Current risk management techniques failing to take this additional downside risk into account will underestimate the true Value-at-Risk with greater severity during periods of financial turnoil. We provide a conditional approach to the Value-at-Risk methodology, known as conditional VaR-x, which to capture the time variation of non-normalities allows for additional tail fatness in the distribution of expected returns. These conditional VaR-x estimates are then compared to those based on the RiskMetrics™ methodology from J.P. Morgan, where we find that the model provides improved forecasts of the Value-at-Risk. We are therefore able to show that our conditional VaR-x estimates are better able to capture the nature of downside risk, particularly crucial in times of financial crises.     

Contagion in international financial markets: A recursive cointegration approach

This study utilizes the recursive cointegration technique to analyze the dynamic interdependence among ten major equity markets throughout North America, Europe, Latin America and Asia. Results indicate that the international equity markets are integrated and that the degree of integration among these markets has increased over time. A scrutiny of the various crisis periods reveals that a major financial crisis had an effect of increasing the level of convergence among these markets. Moreover, the recursive cointegration technique is able to pinpoint and capture the approximate timing of a major global crisis. In addition, the study finds that the U.S., Japan, India, China, U.K., and Germany lead the other markets with the U.S. contributing most heavily to the common trend. Overall, the results indicate that profitable opportunities from portfolio diversification are limited across major markets and that these benefits are further reduced during episodes that are marked by a global financial turmoil.     

正视问题强化质量增强信心提高行业公信力——强化证券市场审计评估执业质量管理工作会议综述

11月12-13日,财政部、证监会在北京国家会计学院联合召开了"强化证券市场审计、评估执业质量管理工作会议".     

A three-tiered nested analytical approach to financial integration: The case of emerging and frontier equity markets

This study investigates the patterns of integration of emerging and frontier equity markets with the US stock market during the period 2002–2014 characterised by financial turmoil and instability. To add rigour to the study, to overcome the limitations of simple correlation analysis of integration, and to produce more robust results, we propose a nested analytical approach based on a three-tiered research design. The first level uses the smooth transition conditional correlations among the US, emerging, and frontier markets. The second tier uses the results of the smooth transition approach to creating different international portfolios, which, based on alternative investment strategies, account for the time-varying correlations among markets and exploit the scope of international diversification with less integrated markets. Finally, the last tier of analysis uses returns and risks of these different international portfolios and applies structural models to explore characteristics and integration patterns in turbulent times. The three nested approaches indicate that the global financial crisis has produced a permanent increase in the degree of integration among the US and frontier markets. Conversely, the crisis's effect seems to have been only temporary in the case of integration among the US and emerging equity markets. Despite the changes brought by the crisis, the degree of integration among emerging markets and the US market is considerably more significant than the degree of integration among frontier and US markets. The novelty of this methodological approach enables us to provide some original contributions and empirical results that are robust and relevant to investors in international markets.     

Assessing professional ethics in tax: A case on uncertain tax positions

We develop and present an ethics case dealing with an uncertain tax position. The case can be used to assess professional ethics as part of an assurance-of-learning (AOL) plan as well as a component of a course grade. We present data on student performance on this case over a 5-year period. Students consider existing ethical frameworks to identify and frame the potential ethical “dilemmas” they might face in addressing whether to countenance a client’s suggested treatment and disclosure of an uncertain tax position. In addition, students evaluate the AICPA guidance and U.S. Treasury standards on taking and reporting uncertain tax positions in the tax return and the FASB and PCAOB standards on reporting and auditing uncertain tax positions in the financial statements. The case allows faculty to assess students’ ability to frame potential ethical dilemmas when clients engage in aggressive tax behavior, to recognize with whom and with what professional reference documents they should consult when an uncertain tax position arises, and to choose among alternative actions when faced with client/preparer conflicts.     

Long memory in financial markets: A heterogeneous agent model perspective

During last decades, studies on asset pricing models witnessed a paradigm shift from rational expectation and representative agent to an alternative, behavioral view, where agents are heterogeneous and boundedly rational. In this paper, we model the financial market as an interaction of two types of boundedly rational investors — fundamentalists and chartists. We examine the dynamics of the market price and market behavior, which depend on investors' behavior and the interaction of the two types of investors. Numerical simulations of the corresponding stochastic model demonstrate that the model is able to replicate the stylized facts of financial time series, in particular the long-term dependence (long memory) of asset return volatilities. We further investigate the source of the long memory according to asset pricing mechanism of our model, and provide evidences of long memory by applying the modified R/S analysis. Our results demonstrate that the key parameter that has impact on the long memory is the speed of the price adjustment of the market maker at the equilibrium of demand and supply.     

Detecting signed spillovers in global financial markets: A Markov-switching approach

We examine the dynamics of the signed-spillover across financial markets using historical decomposition approach. By incorporating Markov-switching framework into the VAR model, this paper assesses the dynamics of signed-spillover during turbulent periods and period of tranquillity. Additionally, this approach enables us to detect the source and direction of the spillover and identify its signs. We show that this approach outperforms the classical single-regime spillover estimation by distinguishing shocks under different economic conditions. Specifically, we assess spillovers in global financial markets using realised variance between January 1999 and December 2017. Our empirical findings clearly indicate that spillovers are intense during period of turbulence and moderate during periods of tranquillity.     

Dynamics of financial markets and transaction costs: A graph-based study

In financial markets, trading patterns influence the behaviour of arbitrage, surveillance, risk management and pricing returns. The analysis of these patterns is important for defining policies in financial regulation as well as portfolios of international assets. Using financialization as a conceptual framework to understand the current trading patterns of financial markets, this work employs a market graph model for studying the stock indexes of geographically separated financial markets. By using an edge creation condition based on a transaction cost threshold, the resulting market graph features a strong connectivity, some traces of a power law in the degree distribution and an intensive presence of cliques. Furthermore, an inverse relation between transaction costs and maximal clique size is noticed. The market graph model also indicates that infrastructure, sustainability and commodity indexes from APEC, EU and NAFTA affect the behaviour of markets. As a result, the graph approach shows a consistent set of outcomes that mostly explain the financialization dynamics of markets.     

A note on the no arbitrage condition for international financial markets

We consider an international financial market model that consists ofN currencies. The purpose is to derive a no arbitrage condition which is not affected by the choice of numéraire between theN currencies. As a result, we show that a finiteness condition for an arbitrary chosen currency and the no arbitrage condition for the basket currency are necessary and sufficient for the no arbitrage property of all theN currencies. Research supported in part by Nomura Foundation for Social Science and by the European Community Stimulation Plan for Economic Science contract Number SPES-CT91-0089. The authors thank an anonymous FEJM referee for helpful comments.