对外贸易与中国制造业发展：基于可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型的模拟分析

运用CGE模型模拟分析了对外贸易对我国制造业主要行业的产出、收益及投资水平的作用效果。分析结果显示,制造业产出、收益和投资变化率与对外贸易变化率呈正相关;除了金属行业的收益增长率在贸易小幅增长时,其行业的收益率高于贸易的增长率以外,其余行业的贸易的增长率均大于各行业收益增长率,低于投资增长率;而贸易的小幅增长对于纺织业、金属行业、炼焦、煤气和石油加工业的收益水平的提升更有利;贸易的高度增长对于具有增长潜力的机械行业更有利;对于食品制造业、化学行业、非金属矿物制品业来讲贸易的适度增长对行业发展更有利。由此提出在大力发展制造业贸易的同时,要针对各行业对贸易的不同敏感程度,合理的调整产业政策,发挥技术创新能力,以此提升制造业的贸易利得。     

Technology and evolving supply chains in the beef and pork industries

The U.S. beef and pork industries have achieved dramatic productivity growth in recent decades; however, the supply chain and market structure of each industry has evolved in different ways. Technological advances have been a key reason for productivity growth, with pharmaceutical innovations playing a major role. This article canvasses the similarities and differences in how beef and pork flow through their respective supply chains and documents the changes, causes, and benefits of the increased efficiency in each industry. Past research is summarized in a broad view of the livestock industry and policy and trade issues are discussed. Such a perspective allows for the consideration of what the future might hold for each industry, and how technological innovation influences product quality, trade, and market structure.     

中国制造业最优环境规制强度的选择——基于绿色全要素生产率的视角

按照污染排放强度,本文将中国28个制造业部门分为重度污染产业、中度污染产业和轻度污染产业三大类,在测算1999—2009年三大产业部门环境规制强度和绿色全要素生产率的基础上,利用面板数据模型对环境规制与绿色全要素生产率的关系进行检验,力图从促进生产率的角度找出不同产业最优环境规制强度的拐点。研究结果表明:重度污染产业当前环境规制强度相对合理,能够促进产业绿色全要素生产率提高、技术创新和效率改进;中度污染产业环境规制强度较弱,环境规制与绿色全要素生产率、技术创新和技术效率的关系呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术创新而言技术效率可以更早地突破"U"型拐点;轻度污染产业环境规制强度与三者的关系也呈"U"型,相对于生产率和技术效率而言,技术创新能够更早突破"U"型拐点。在制定适当的环境规制强度同时,政府应推进环境规制政策从控制型向激励型转变,诱导企业进行技术创新,实现环境和经济发展的双赢。     

Competition and Long–run Productivity Growth in the UK and US Tobacco Industries, 1879–1939

The UK and US tobacco industries provide a particularly clean place to examine the impact of changes in market structure on firm conduct and productivity in a rapidly innovating industry. Although each industry had roughly equal access to new manufacturing technologies, the industries were monopolized at different times. The US lost an early productivity lead after the formation of the Tobacco Trust in 1890, but regained it after the UK industry merged to monopoly in 1902 and the Trust was broken up in 1911. Supplementary evidence suggests that technological innovation and consolidation of production were more rapid during competitive periods.     

产业转移特征及其与企业亏损、劳动力转移关系研究

本文采用比较分析方法,基于纺织业,纺织服装、鞋帽制造业和化学纤维制造业2001～2010年统计数据,分析产业转移特征与趋势,并进一步探讨与企业亏损及劳动力转移的关系。研究结论表明:(1)从2001～2010年10年来看,纺织业和纺织服装、鞋帽制造业由东部向中西部转移,而化学纤维制造业由中部向东西部转移;(2)从2001～2010年10年内不同时间阶段来看,纺织业等三大产业在2001～2004年间都由中西部向东部转移,2004年后纺织业和纺织服装、鞋帽制造业转为由东部向中西部转移,而化学纤维制造业2004年后由中部向东西部转移;(3)纺织业等三大产业转移特征与产业内企业亏损数量及劳动力转移是紧密相联系的。这些对于我们正确认识产业转移是我国工业化过程中的客观现象,以及只有加快产业有序转移,才有利于促进区域经济协调可持续发展,具有重要的现实意义。     

科技金融对创新效率影响的实证研究——基于中国高技术产业省级面板数据

基于中国东部、中部、西部以及全国2007~2016年高技术产业的省级面板数据,以科技经费投入和技术人力投入作为投入指标,以专利数量和新产品的产值作为产出指标,首先使用DEA方法计算了不同地区高技术产业的创新效率。以企业自主创新投入、政府支持、科技信贷和风投支持作为科技金融指标,使用面板模型实证分析了科技金融对于高技术产业创新效率的影响。结果表明,考察期内,中国不同地区高技术产业的创新效率均有所提升;科技金融的发展在一定程度上提升了高技术产业的创新效率,但是外商直接投资对于创新效率产生了一定的抑制作用。最后针对本文结论提出了相关建议。     

The evolution of hog production and potential sources for future growth in China

Following reforms to the market, China’s hog industry has developed rapidly, however, with social and economic transitions, China’s hog industry is facing challenges which might restrict long-term growth in production. This paper analyzes the changes in regional scale, organization, input factors, and technological progress for China’s hog production over the last few decades. The paper seeks to reveal the sources of hog production growth and provide some suggestions for future development of the hog industry. To achieve these aims, the paper uses stochastic frontier production functions and the Malmquist index to measure total factor productivity (TFP) in the hog industry and decompose TFP into technical efficiency; technological progress; scale efficiency; and allocative efficiency using data for 25 provinces from 1980 to 2008. The results show firstly that; the TFP of hog production increased by 64.3% from 1980 to 2008, and allocative efficiency and scale efficiency improvements played a key role in this TFP growth. In contrast, technical efficiency and technical progress have changed little over this period. Secondly, TFP’s contribution to output was 39.7%, it being less than that of factor inputs to output. Thirdly, the results suggest that the growth of China’s pork production depends mostly on the increase in the quantity of factor inputs, especially feed. As a consequence, the key to ensuring long-term and stable development of China’s hog production would seem to involve focusing on enhancing total factor productivity and changing the pattern of production growth.     

Competition & Innovation: Evidence from U.S. Patent and Productivity Data

Is there any evidence that innovation and technological progress are constrained by competition and fostered by monopoly power? Our results, based on a constructed dataset of U.S. manufacturing industries observed over more than two decades, suggest that this is not the case. On the contrary, using both patent statistics and productivity growth as alternative measures of innovation and technological change, we observe faster technological advances in more competitive markets. These results are robust to changes in the econometric techniques used to model nonlinearity in the competition‐innovation relationship and to alternative methods of computing market power.     

中国工业企业创新全要素生产率评价——基于双前沿面网络 DEA-Malmquist 指数模型

本文将工业企业创新活动划分为两个阶段--研发阶段和生产阶段,建立了基于双前沿面的网络 DEA-Malmquist 指数全要素生产率评价模型,对 2013~2014 年,2014~2015 年中国 35 个工业细分行业的创新全要素生产率进行了评价。评价结果表明：在两个期间内,研发阶段全要素生产率的增长主要依赖于技术进步增长,生产阶段全要素生产率的增长主要是由技术效率变化和技术进步二者共同决定的。从系统整体来看,中国绝大部分工业细分行业全要素生产率变化呈现正增长趋势。     

Innovation in Process Plant: A Case Study of Ethylene

Successful companies in any industry recognize the importance of involving customers and suppliers in the design and development of products and services. When complex product and process technologies are involved, these relationships create a network of companies and industries, each of which is a potential source for technological innovation. At the same time, however, such interrelationships further complicate the already challenging task of analyzing the evolving nature and sources of innovation. Using ethylene manufacture as a case study, Peter Hutcheson, Alan Pearson, and Derrick Ball present a three-stage model of innovation. The model provides a framework for understanding the evolution of technological innovation in ethylene manufacturing, as well as the changing roles of the equipment suppliers, the process plant suppliers, and the operating companies througout this evolution. The applicability of this approach to other sectors of the chemical processing industry is also evaluated. In much the same way that a product's life cycle can be traced through distinct phases of creation, growth, maturity, and decline, technological innovation progresses through three main phases: uncoordinated, segmental, and systemic. The progression through these three phases is marked by changes in the relative levels of product and process innovation activity. In this three-stage model, innovative activity progresses from an extreme of high product and low process innovation during the uncoordinated phase, through the segmental period of low product and high process innovation, to the low product and medium process innovation levels of the systemic phase. In other words, as the industry matures, the focus of innovative activity gradually shifts from the product to the process. As illustrated by the example of ethylene manufacturing, companies operating in an industry that has reached the systemic stage will find little or no scope for innovation in the end product or the core manufacturing technologies. In such a mature market, the product is a commodity item, and the fundamentals of the manufacturing process are well known. At this stage, the quest for productivity improvements focuses on cost reductions from task structuring and specialization, task integration, and automation. As such, equipment manufacturers play an increasingly important role in refining existing technologies and improving equipment reliability and capabilities. Such efforts are facilitated by close cooperation with the operating companies, which can contribute process expertise that the equipment manufacturers might otherwise lack.     

依托技术创新推动潍坊市纺织业的发展

潍坊市纺织业的技术创新体系尚处于探索阶段,在技术创新过程中仍有许多突出的问题制约着这一活动的开展。本文正是以此为出发点,通过对潍坊市纺织业技术创新存在的问题进行分析,探寻实现技术创新健康发展的对策。     

产业外部性对全要素生产率及其分解的实证研究

本文构建关于MAR外部性、Jacobs外部性与Porter外部性与全要素生产率的空间计量模型,实证检验了以2004年为基期的2005~2015年中国省域制造业的产业外部性对于全要素生产率的影响,同时将产业细分为劳动密集型、资源密集型以及技术密集型进行探讨研究 。通过构建空间计量模型,发现雅各布斯外部性与波特外部性对于制造业整体以及3个细分产业的全要素生产率的影响非常显著,都对全要素生产率的增长具有促进作用。针对生产率分解后的技术进步与技术效率的实证证明,产业多样化可以促进制造业技术效率改善而对技术进步具有抑制作用,市场竞争可以促进制造业技术进步,与波特外部性不谋而合。提高产业专业化以及保持产业的区域垄断更能促进劳动密集型产业技术进步,支持了MAR外部性的观点。劳动密集型产业技术效率的变动则主要是通过区域的竞争来影响;资源密集型产业的技术进步与技术效率只有波特外部性在发挥正向效应;技术密集型产业的技术进步需要保持产业的专业化,而提高产业的多样化与有效的市场竞争更利于技术效率的改善。     

Total factor productivity growth in Uganda’s telecommunications industry

The telecommunication sector is usually thought to be characterized by high productivity growth rates arising from increasing returns to scale. The actual productivity patterns in the sector, however, need to be empirically determined. A panel data set was assembled and a common set of input and output indicators was constructed to support the estimation of the Malmquist Total Factor Productivity index via input-oriented Data Envelopment Analysis. A general specification encompassing all available input and output data was employed to obtain the average total factor productivity changes for the sector. Over the study period, there was total factor productivity growth in Uganda’s telecommunications industry, which was mainly due to technical or technological progress as opposed to technical efficiency. These results indicate the existence of a potential for tariff reduction via the X-factor in the price cap formula.     

工业化新时期新兴主导产业的选择

需求约束的强化和加入WTO后的挑战，使我国的工业化进入了一个新的时期。为了寻找新的增长空间，提供更多的就业机会，加快产业结构升级，并进一步走可持续发展道路，工业化新时期需要选择新兴主导产业。从产业的增长潜力、就业功能、带动效应、生产率上升率、技术密集度、可持续发展性以及国际比较等方面来进行分析，制造业中兼顾产业升级基本目标和就业增长重要目标的新兴主导产业是：电子及通信设备、电气机械及器材、交通运输设备、纺织和服装、普通机械和专用设备制造业。应当通过新的产业政策，促进新兴主导产业的形成和发展，提高其国际竞争力，并加强其对整个制造业发展的带动效应。     

A DEA Approach to Understanding the Productivity Growth of Malaysia's Manufacturing Industries

This paper seeks to explain the productivity growth performance of Malaysia's manufacturing sector using a panel data of 28 industries from 1981–1996. Here, the data envelopment analysis technique is used to calculate and decompose the Malmquist index of total factor productivity (TFP) growth into technical change, change in technical efficiency and change in scale efficiency. This allows the identification of the sources of productivity growth which is crucial for policy formulation. It was found that the annual TFP growth of the Malaysian manufacturing sector was low at 0.8% and this was driven by small gains in both technical change and technical efficiency, with industries operating close to optimum scale.     

Technological Opportunity and Economies of Scale in Research Productivity: A Study on Three Global Industries

In this study, the author tests for economies of scale with the use of patent citationsand assesses the impacts of technological opportunity on research productivity inthree global industries, namely, computer, chemical, and electrical and electronic.Technological opportunity in an industry is jointly represented by knowledgespillovers, inter-firm research overlap and scope of research. In particular, the effect of knowledge spillovers is decomposed into internal, intra-industry and inter-industry spillovers. The results suggest no evidence for economies of scale, but the impacts of various aspects of technological opportunity on research productivity are significantly positive. Moreover, the data indicate that if the number of firms in each overlapping research area is small, a rise in the number of these areas enhances research productivity.     

Productivity,scale economies and technical progress in the Canadian life insurance industry

The purpose of this paper is to examine the productivity performance of the Canadian life insurance industry. We construct a measure of total factor productivity for life insurance companies and then attempt to determine the main sources of improved productivity during the period 1961–1977 by pooling time-series and cross-section data from 31 firms. We conclude that for the industry as a whole technical progress was by far the most important source of productivity growth, while scale economies, on balance, had a marginally negative impact.     

制度环境、技术复杂度与空间溢出的产业间非均衡性

制度环境作为约束区际互动的因素对于经济空间关联具有不可忽视的影响。本文系统地构建了空间溢出影响产业演化的路径体系,探索制度环境导致空间溢出产业间非均衡性的作用机制,以剖析制度影响区际经济关联的微观基础。基于中国地级地区4位数制造业的实证研究表明,地区间会通过“水平关联”“技术关联”与“投入产出关联”三条路径实现空间溢出,但受到制度环境的调节,较差的制度环境会削弱溢出效应。制度环境通过信任机制影响区际互动,对于不同溢出路径具有差异性的调节作用。技术关联和投入产出关联溢出依赖于企业间的密切互动,显著受到制度环境的调节;水平关联溢出并不一定依赖于企业间互动,受制度环境的调节作用较弱。高技术复杂度产业的发展更加依赖于具有密切技术相关性和投入产出关系的企业间协同机制,因而要求优越的制度环境支持,由此,在制度环境影响下,空间溢出在不同技术复杂度的产业间表现出非均衡性。本文结论暗含“产业促进政策悖论”:致力于促进本地发展的政策很可能因为扭曲制度环境反而成为制约发展的因素。中国推进转型发展与区域协同创新需要降低区际经济互动的交易成本,设计和建设规则透明、信息畅通、政策公平的正式制度是重点之一。     

Restructuring, productivity and workplace relations: evidence from the textile industry

This study analyses the nature of productivity improvements in the textile industry by focusing on the interplay between micro-electronic technologies and changes in work practices at two hosiery plants and a cotton spinning mill. The findings highlight the uneven impact of technological change on workplace relations and patterns of occupational segregation.     

A search theoretic model of productivity, science and innovation

Building on macroeconomic research on technology searches in response to diminishing technological opportunities, we develop an industry-level search theoretic model of productivity, knowledge sources, and innovation. We argue that increasing the use of science in technology development increases the novelty of ideas in the innovation search distribution and thus increases the likelihood of finding productivity improvements. We also propose that this relationship will hold outside the traditional science-based industries (pharmaceuticals, chemicals), and that there is no similar relationship between productivity and non-science patents. Random effect analyses of 32 US manufacturing industries during 1985–1997 support these hypotheses.