On the Virtues of Hiring Lemons

Recruiting high‐ability workers and implementing optimal efforts are among the key objectives of a firm's personnel policy. We show that, if the firm applies a tournament scheme—that is, a competitive career system—selection and incentive issues are strictly interrelated, thus leading to a fundamental conflict: if the firm is primarily interested in balanced worker competition, there will be a rationale for hiring low‐ability workers (‘lemons’). Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

生态平衡的哲学思考

维护生态平衡,保护自然环境关系到我们人类自身的生存和发展的根本利益。长期以来,人类以自我为中心,将自然界当作可以所以索取的宝库和任意排放的回收站,伴随着人口膨胀,生态平衡已经面临着严峻的挑战。本文对在人类错误自然观指导下导致的生态危机进行了分析,提出了一些关于维护生态平衡的思考和想法。     

对估计量优劣性评价标准的研究

未知总体参数的估计是数理统计学研究的重要课题。目前估计总体参数的方法很多,但无论使用何种方法,都涉及到估计量的精确度问题。为评价估计量的精确程度,统计学家根据样本容量的大小,分别提出了小样本的三条性质(无偏性、有效性和最佳线性无偏性)及大样本的三条性质(渐近无偏性,一致性和渐近有效性)作为评价估计量优劣性的标准。本     

我国第四代港口建设的战略思考

文中结合国内外对第四代港口理论研究,探讨了第四代港口的功能特征,结合我国港口的具体特点,提出了我国港口在第四代港口条件下的发展战略。     

中国房价持续"走高"的原因分析

中国很多城市的住房价格在过去的几年里持续飙升,引起诸多方面的关注,存在许多不同的解释.文章分析影响住房价格的种种原因和可能,认为中国城市住房价格上升的主要原因是房地产开发的资金运作模式.由于绝大多数开发商的资金运作是滚动式开发,预售制是其保障.金融上,房地产资金的滚动式开发需要不断上升的房价作为其资金保证.也就是说,开发商一定要让房价不断上涨,才能极大地促使广大消费者"争先恐后"地"先付款,后提货"式地购房,以保持其资金流的顺畅.由于预售制在过去近十年来为中国城市发展和房地产业经济做出了巨大的贡献,如经济增长、就业、投资等,这极大地增加了中央在房地产市场宏观调控方面的难度.总之,解铃还需系铃人,预售制既推动了房地产的发展,也是城市房价上升的根源,解决城市房价上升还需从房地产开发的融资机制入手.     

对铁路运输与现代物流的分析和思考

简述了铁路运输与现代物流的关系以及传统铁路运输业发展现代物流的社会环境条件．对铁路运输企业和物流服务企业的主要区别以及铁路运输业发展现代物流的优势进行了简要分析，最后给出铁路运输业融入现代物流的几点思考。     

股市投机的群体行为博弈和系统科学分析

本文用群体行为进化博弈和系统科学的思想与分析方法,对股市投机行为及其对股市稳定性的影响作用机制作了深入的分析。结论是股市投机确实有引发股市不稳定性甚至股灾的内在机制,但复杂适应性系统的性质基本上能使有健全交易制度和足够规模的成熟股市保持平稳,实现我国股市稳定发展的关键措施包括允许信用交易、扩容、禁止操纵和导向股市等。     

三一“变相裁员”事件背后的企业社会责任思辨

企业社会责任由经济责任、法律责任、伦理责任、慈善责任四个层次构成,但最基本的社会责任还是经济责任。三一裁员本身并不是企业社会责任的缺失,采用"变相裁员"的方式才是缺乏企业社会责任的体现。三一需要增加战略决策的理性和周延并建立可预见收入与就业计划,在履行经济责任的基础上更好地履行其余的企业社会责任。     

信息不对称下金融衍生品市场过度投机成因分析

金融衍生品市场应规避由过度投机导致的风险。从信息不对称角度,分析金融衍生品市场中过度投机的成因;并运用加入可选择风险因素的委托-代理简化模型分析指出在信息不对称下,由于缺少代理人约束机制,导致代理人风险成本不变,最终产生过度投机现象。最后,尝试性地提出我国金融衍生品市场风险防范的具体建议。     

循环经济系统中合作与投机行为的博弈分析

循环经济是一种建立在物质不断循环利用基础上的经济发展模式。构建循环经济生态网络的治理机制,是维护循环经济网络安全与稳定运行的重要保障。循环经济系统中各利益主体都有其合作与投机的产生动因,依据循环经济共生系统内成员间行为的差别构建博弈模型,并利用帕累托最优条件进行分析。提出促进企业合作或减少企业间投机行为发生的措施是通过契约制度的安排来实现。     

Land Speculation in Southern California: Energy Monopoly, Fiscal Crisis and the Future

A bstract . Increasing automobile traffic congestion and longer trip times on interurban trolley lines in southern California after the second world war led to the contruction of freeways. The trolleys were denied access and the efficient electric railway system was sold to bus lines , partly as a result of a conspiracy between bus manufacturers, tiremakers , and oil companies. This producecl "the golden age of land speculation" in the region. Floodplains, earthquake zones, blowsand areas and the tops and sides of crumbling cliffs were dotted with sprawled residential developments. The energy crisis of 1973, produced by the oil companies and the Arab oil cartel , turned boom into bust. As inflation and rising taxes produced by soaring property values put intolerable pressure on urban homeowners , they forced legislators to limit increases in assessed values and to restrict government spending. Now the public is challenged to produce order out of fiscal chaos and speculative ruin.     

Land Speculation in Southern California: The Roles of Railroads, Trolley Lines and Autos

A bstract . Southern California's transporation system was subjected to speculative manipulation from the time of the railroads , through the period of the electric interurban trolleys and the rise of the automobile up until the energy crisis of the 1970s. The dominant underlying force in each period is shown to have been combinations of developer-speculators and local politicians. These groups, motivated by a desire for rapid development for speculative reasons, were able to exercise effective control over the provision of major infrastructural improimnents The argument is made that such control, and the developmental pattern resulting from it, can never be in the public interest.     

对"十一五"国家科技发展战略的经济学思考

本文从经济学角度分析了国家科技发展战略的依据，对科技发展战略实施的经济学机制进行了探讨，提出了我国科技发展战略应依据的经济学原则，论述了“十一五”期间科技发展战略的任务。     

Some approximations of n-copulas

We consider several approximations to n-copulas: the checkmin, checkerboard, Bernstein, and shuffle of min approximations. The checkerboard, Bernstein, and shuffle of min approximations have been studied in the n = 2 case. We investigate these constructions in arbitrary finite dimensions and consider some of the ways in which they converge or fail to converge to the original copula.     

Some approximate equilibria

It is by now well-known that there exists a system of prices at which decentralized, utility-maximizing behavior by a finite number of agents, each with convex preferences, leads to outcomes which ‘mesh’ in the aggregate. Technically, a competitive equilibrium is said to exist. The question arises as to what happens with non-convex preferences. Using Non-standard Analysis, we show that, provided the economy is ‘large’ enough, there exist various formulations of approximate competitive equilibria. We also relate our results to other work in this area.     

Some Informational Aspects of Conservatism

Abstract

When two value estimates are about equally likely, conservatism dictates reporting the less optimistic one (e.g. Lower of Cost or Market). We use an analytical model to investigate informational implications of this dictum, and identify types of environments where the conservative accounting treatment is more informative than a predetermined choice. The bias induced by the conservative choice is found to be adequately moderate, never excessive. It benefits users of the financial statements that take the reported figures at face value whenever upside errors are more costly (possibly only slightly more costly) than similar downside errors. Sophisticated users, who know how to give the reports the best possible interpretation, benefit from the lower variability, not from the bias. These latter benefits are least ambiguous when upside errors and downside errors are about equally costly.