中国企业部门脆弱性评估

本文运用中国上市公司的数据研究了中国企业债务上升所带来的风险。结果显示,虽然平均杠杆水平不高,但高杠杆企业存在肥尾现象,致使这些企业的债务在总体企业债务中占显著份额,尤其是房地产、建筑业及国有企业。房地产及建筑企业通常借贷成本较低,因此尽管其杠杆水平较高,仍能承受利率轻微上升所带来的冲击,然而房地产及建筑业的显著下行会使整个企业部门遭受打击。我们的敏感性分析结果显示,如果房地产行业和建筑业利润下降20%,处于财务危机的企业债务占所有上市公司总债务的比重将会上升至1/4。     

Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads

An important research question examined in the credit risk literature focuses on the proportion of corporate yield spreads attributed to default risk. This topic is reexamined in light of the different issues associated with the computation of default probabilities obtained from historical default data. We find that the estimated default risk proportion in corporate yield spreads is sensitive to the ex ante estimated term structure of default probabilities used as inputs. This proportion can become a large fraction of the spread when sensitivity analyses are made with respect to the period over which the probabilities are estimated and the recovery rates.     

Corporate Default Prediction Model Averaging: A Normative Linear Pooling Approach

Focusing on credit risk modelling, this paper introduces a novel approach for ensemble modelling based on a normative linear pooling. Models are first classified as dominant and competitive, and the pooling is run using the competitive models only. Numerical experiments based on parametric (logit, Bayesian model averaging) and nonparametric (classification tree, random forest, bagging, boosting) model comparison shows that the proposed ensemble performs better than alternative approaches, in particular when different modelling cultures are mixed together (logit and classification tree). Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Is Default Event Risk Priced in Corporate Bonds?

This article provides an empirical decomposition of the default,liquidity, and tax factors that determine expected corporatebond returns. In particular, the risk premium associated witha default event is estimated. The intensity-based model is estimatedusing bond price data for 104 US firms and historical defaultrates. Significant risk premia on common intensity factors andimportant tax and liquidity effects are found. These componentsgo a long way towards explaining the level of expected corporatebond returns. Adding a positive default event risk premium helpsto explain the remaining error, although this premium cannotbe estimated with high statistical precision.     

Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market

We use the information in credit default swaps to obtain direct measures of the size of the default and nondefault components in corporate spreads. We find that the majority of the corporate spread is due to default risk. This result holds for all rating categories and is robust to the definition of the riskless curve. We also find that the nondefault component is time varying and strongly related to measures of bond‐specific illiquidity as well as to macroeconomic measures of bond market liquidity.     

信用风险传染与企业盈余管理:基于信用债违约的视角

信用债违约事件不仅让投资者损失惨重,还可能通过信用风险传染对非违约企业的经营活动产生影响。本文发现,在市场出现信用债违约后,同城市的非违约民营企业会进行更多向上的真实盈余管理,不过类似的影响在同行业非违约企业中并不明显。机理分析显示,信用债违约事件导致当地企业融资约束增大是非违约企业进行盈余管理的重要动机,特别是偿付能力更弱或融资需求更大的非违约企业将进行更多的盈余管理;并且还发现,向上的盈余管理有效缓解了信用债违约对非违约企业融资的负面影响。进一步地,盈利可疑或者负面事件缠身的非违约企业会进行更多的盈余管理;此外,在金融发展水平较高、经济规模更大的地区,非违约企业受信用债违约的影响相对更小。     

Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis

We apply the powerful, flexible, and computationally efficient nonparametric Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to analyze real estate mortgage data. CART is particularly appropriate for our data set because of its strengths in dealing with large data sets, high dimensionality, mixed data types, missing data, different relationships between variables in different parts of the measurement space, and outliers. Moreover, CART is intuitive and easy to interpret and implement. We discuss the pros and cons of CART in relation to traditional methods such as linear logistic regression, nonparametric additive logistic regression, discriminant analysis, partial least squares classification, and neural networks, with particular emphasis on real estate. We use CART to produce the first academic study of Israeli mortgage default data. We find that borrowers features, rather than mortgage contract features, are the strongest predictors of default if accepting icbadli borrowers is more costly than rejecting good ones. If the costs are equal, mortgage features are used as well. The higher (lower) the ratio of misclassification costs of bad risks versus good ones, the lower (higher) are the resulting misclassification rates of bad risks and the higher (lower) are the misclassification rates of good ones. This is consistent with real-world rejection of good risks in an attempt to avoid bad ones.     

公司债市场信用违约风险的传染效应与控制机理

本文基于2014年1月-2020年9月公司债市场信用违约与一级市场信用利差省级月度面板数据,运用固定效应与中介效应模型,分析公司债违约风险传染效应.发现:(1)公司债违约风险在公司债市场内部传染并产生结构化定价效应,区域商业银行投债机制、政府兜底机制是重要的风险中介传导机制;(2)不同类型、信用等级、区域的公司债发行价...     

Determinants of Corporate Dividend Policy: A Factorial Analysis

This paper re-examines the dividend policy issue by conducting a simultaneous test of the alternative explanations of corporate payout policy using a two-step procedure that involves factor analysis and multiple regression. Several new proxies for theoretical attributes that have appeared in the literature are introduced, including the role of managerial dimensions in determining dividend policy. Strong support is found for the transaction cost/residual theory of dividends. pecking order argument, and the role of dividends in mitigating agency problems. Strong support is also found for the role of managerial consideration in affecting the firm's payout policy; specifically, firms that maintain stable dividend policies and firms that enjoy financial flexibility pay higher dividends. The results appear to support the tax clientele argument.     

劳动投资效率、企业性质与资产收益率

基于中国信用债券市场的近期违约事件,本文研究发现:涉事评级机构不仅没有因为涉及债券违约事件而收紧信用评级标准,反而更加高估企业的信用评级水平,并且涉及的债券违约事件越多,高估信用评级的程度越大。但投资者通过“用脚投票”方式惩罚了涉事评级机构,导致其市场份额相对于非涉事评级机构出现显著下降或者增长较低的态势,同时涉事评级机构的信用评级意见对于降低企业融资成本的作用显著降低。     

Liquidity and Pricing of Credit Default Swaps in Japan: Evidence from a Benchmark Index for Corporate Debt Claims

This article is a contribution towards the growing empirical literature on the relationship between liquidity and pricing of credit default swaps (CDSs). To the best of my knowledge, the article becomes the first to show that market liquidity does matter to CDS pricing in Japan, by looking into a sole benchmark index of CDS trading for investment-grade debt claims, or the Markit iTraxx Japan (MiJ). The impact of illiquidity on MiJ premia has declined since the International Swaps and Derivatives Association introduced new trade practices in April 2009. The liquidity of the MiJ has increased since the Japan Securities Clearing Corporation started operating as a central counterpart for the MiJ in July 2011. The price discovery ability of the MiJ has also increased since then.     

Explaining the Relative Decline of Agriculture: A Supply-Side Analysis for Indonesia

The relative decline of agriculture in growing economies isa central feature of economic development and a major influenceon agricultural policies. The literature on the causes of thisdecline has focused on the relative price effects arising fromdemand factors, especially Engel's law, rather than on supply-sideinfluences, such as changes in relative factor endowments anddifferential rates of technical change. This article developsa simple structural model of the transformation of the Indonesianeconomy, applying an error correction mechanism to capture thedynamics resulting from disequilibria and the costs of adjustment.The decline in agriculture's share of gross domestic productis found to be caused much less by the relative price effectstypically emphasized in the literature than by capital accumulationand rapid technical change in agriculture.     

A Time-Series Analysis of Corporate Payout Policies

I conduct a time-series analysis of corporate payout policies that accounts for the dynamic nature of these decisions and for the interaction among investment decisions and payout policies. The estimation is done with a VAR model of investments, earnings, total payout, and the split of the total payout between dividends and share repurchases. I control for changes in the legal treatment of share repurchases in 1982 and for changes in the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains. I find that: (i) an increase in the taxation of capital gains relative to dividends shifts the split of total payout away from share repurchase and toward dividends; (ii) corporate investment decisions lead payout policies and not the other way around; (iii) increases in corporate total payout are associated with long-term subsequent increases in earnings; (iv) changes in the composition of corporate payout away from share repurchases and toward dividends are associated with subsequent increases in earnings.     

A Competing Risks Analysis of Corporate Survival

This paper investigates how the characteristics of a Hong Kong-listed firm influence its odds of going bankrupt, being acquired, and going private. A competing risks model is estimated. Our results reveal that larger firms are more vulnerable to bankruptcy, and that fast-growing firms are more likely to be acquired. We also demonstrate that undervaluation is a key driver of going private. Despite the low agency cost due to the concentrated ownership structure, the propensity of Hong Kong-listed firms to go private still increases with the level of free cash flow.     

Economic Reform and Labor Unions: A General-Equilibrium Analysis Applied to Bangladesh and Indonesia

Noting the trend toward more independent trade unions in developingcountries, this article examines whether the presence of unionsstrengthens or weakens the benefits to be gained from economicpolicy reform. We show that the presence of "passive" unions—onesthat choose their wage-employment contract given the firm'scost-minimizing strategy—increases the welfare gains fromtrade liberalization, because trade reform lowers the wage premiumenjoyed by the unionized sector, reducing a distortion in thelabor market. These gains are amplified when the unions are"active", namely, when they negotiate a contract with the firmthat is off its labor demand curve. Such a contract resultsin featherbedding—paying workers more than their marginalproduct—and trade reform reduces the amount of featherbedding.The policy implication for Bangladesh—a country with strongtrade unions and a protected unionized sector—is thatthe benefits of further trade liberalization may be greaterthan otherwise predicted. In Indonesia, where both unionizationand import tariffs are low, allowing greater independence tounions may preserve flexibility and reward workers better thanthe current minimum-wage policy.     

Corporate Financing: An Artificial Agent-based Analysis

We examine corporate security choice by simulating an economy populated by adaptive agents who learn about the structure of security returns and prices through experience. Through a process of evolutionary selection, each agent gravitates toward strategies that generate the highest payoffs. Despite the fact that markets are perfect and agents maximize value, a financing hierarchy emerges in which straight debt dominates other financing choices. Equity and convertible debt display significant underpricing. In general, the smaller the probability of loss to outside investors, the more likely the firm is to issue the security and the smaller the security's underpricing.     

A Corporate View of Research Needs in Corporate Finance

This paper reports the results of a survey of UK chief financial officers (CFOs) drawn from 72 large, 34 medium and 37 small companies on potentially important research topics in corporate finance. The paper suggests that there are gaps between extant academic research and the CFOs ‘needs for such research. The topics that the 143 CFOs would like to see on the research agenda include: the influence of tax laws on financial decision-making; investor reactions to companies concentrating on short-term gains to the almost total neglect of long-term benefits; effects of changes to the law on pension funds; cash flow planning and forecasting; regulators’ awareness of financial issues; and methods for determining the riskiness of a project. Of least importance to the CFOs are research on the significance of bankruptcy costs, influence of the City on corporate financial operations and impact of seasons on operational decisions. The degree of importance attributed to research topics seems to vary with firm size. In general, the findings of this study are similar to those from a survey of financial managers in the US.     

违约与杠杆周期——一个带有救助的金融加速器模型

我国为应对2008年国际金融危机的冲击采取了一系列经济刺激政策,在发挥"稳增长"作用的同时,也在一定程度上导致我国企业部门杠杆水平快速上升,但与此同时,不良贷款率并没有随企业部门杠杆的上升而显著增加。为了解释企业部门违约与杠杆的周期特征,本文在金融加速器模型(Bernanke et al.,1999)基础上,引入政府对企业部门的违约救助机制,建立DSGE模型进行讨论。进一步地,本文还通过一个不合意的去杠杆政策试验表明,忽略资产价格稳定(或者说金融稳定)前提下的去杠杆政策,反而会使企业部门的杠杆和违约率同时上升到一个较高水平。最后,引入一个盯住预期资产价格的动态救助规则能够发挥稳定经济的作用,并提高社会福利水平。