Incentives and group identity

This paper investigates in a principal–agent environment whether and how group membership influences the effectiveness of incentives and when incentives can have “hidden costs”, i.e., a detrimental effect. We show experimentally that in all interactions control mechanisms can have hidden costs for reasons specific to group membership. In within-group interactions control has detrimental effects because the agent does not expect to be controlled and reacts negatively when being controlled. In between-group interactions, agents perceive control more hostile once we condition on their beliefs about principals' behavior. Our finding contributes to the micro-foundation of psychological effects of incentives.     

Peer effects on risk behaviour: the importance of group identity

This paper investigates whether and to what extent group identity plays a role in peer effects on risk behaviour. We run a laboratory experiment in which different levels of group identity are induced through different matching protocols (random or based on individual painting preferences) and the possibility to interact with group members via an online chat in a group task. Risk behaviour is measured by using the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task and peer influence is introduced by giving subjects feedback regarding group members’ previous decisions. We find that subjects are affected by their peers when taking decisions and that group identity influences the magnitude of peer effects: painting preferences matching significantly reduces the heterogeneity in risk behaviour compared with random matching. On the other hand, introducing a group task has no significant effect on behaviour, possibly because interaction does not always contribute to enhancing group identity. Finally, relative riskiness within the group matters and individuals whose peers are riskier than they are take on average riskier decisions, even when controlling for regression to the mean.     

Saving behavior and cognitive abilities

Experiments on saving behavior reveal substantial heterogeneity of behavior and performance. We show that this heterogeneity is reliable and examine several potential sources of it, including cognitive ability and personality scales. The strongest predictors of both behavior and performance are two cognitive ability measures. We conclude that complete explanations of heterogeneity in dynamic decision making require attention to complexity and individual differences in cognitive constraints.     

Social identity and preferences over redistribution

We design an experiment to study the effects of social identity on preferences over redistribution. The experiment highlights the trade-off between social identity concerns and maximization of monetary payoffs. Subjects belonging to two distinct natural groups are randomly assigned gross incomes and vote over alternative redistributive tax regimes, where the regime is chosen by majority rule. We find that a significant subset of the subjects systematically deviate from monetary payoff maximization towards the tax rate that benefits their group when the monetary cost of doing so is not too high. These deviations cannot be explained by efficiency concerns, inequality aversion, reciprocity, social learning or conformity. Finally, we show that behavior in the lab helps explain the relationship between reported income and stated preferences over redistribution observed in survey data.     

Factor Saving Innovation

It has been argued that concave models exhibit less “endogeneity of growth” than models with increasing returns to scale. Here we study a simple model of factor saving technological improvement in a concave framework. Capital can be used either to reproduce itself, or, at some additional cost, to produce a higher quality of capital, which requires less labor input. If better quality capital can be produced quickly, we get a model of exogenous balanced growth as a special case of ours. If, however, better quality capital can be produced slowly, we get a model of “endogenous growth” in which the growth rate of the economy and the rate of adoption of new technologies is determined by preferences, technology and initial conditions. Moreover, in the latter case, the process of growth is necessarily uneven, exhibiting a natural cycle with alternating periods of high and slow growth. Growth paths and technological innovations also exhibit dependence upon initial conditions. The model provides a step toward a theory of endogenous innovation under conditions of perfect competition. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: O30, O40, D92, C61, D24, D41.     

Measuring Saving Intentions

Abstract
A need has long been expressed for up-to-date information on householder plans for saving, both quantity and type. This article surveys the international work done on ascertaining householder intentions and then proposes a group of nine specific questions to be put to Australian households with the aim of developing a useful Index of Saving Intentions along with information on household asset allocation. Full development can only be accomplished ex post when results can be correlated over time with various savings measures. It is intended that the Index assist in forecasting household behaviour, the allocation of savings across assets and that it will permit more rapid evaluation of the effects of government policy changes in areas such as taxation and superannuation. Results from initial surveys are presented.     

Non-Expected Utility, Saving and Portfolios

Despite increased stockholding opportunities, standard expected-utility models overpredict household participation and stock holdings. It has been suggested that departures from expected utility could resolve both puzzles. We investigate three measurable departures: (i) Kreps-Porteus preferences, (ii) Yaari's Dual Theory, and (iii) Quiggin's Rank-dependent Utility. Improvements tend to occur in predicted portfolio composition rather than participation. They are limited under (i), questionable under (ii), and more sizeable under (iii). Contrary to priors in the literature, improvements under (iii) do not result from solutions at kinks of indifference curves. We conclude that stockholding puzzles are unlikely to be resolved through preferences alone.     

Saving under rank-dependent utility

Summary. In this note we use the rank-dependent utility (RDU) model to analyze saving decisions. The RDU model enables us to separate the effects of pessimism and optimism on saving from that of concavity of the utility function. While pessimism induces more saving, the importance of this effect is shown to depend upon properties of the utility function such as prudence and temperance.JEL Classification Numbers: D11, D81.An anonymous referee provided helpful comments. Han Bleichrodts research was made possible by a grant from the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). Louis Eeckhoudt acknowledges support from the Interuniversity Attraction Poles Programme - Belgian State - Federal Office for Scientific, Technical, and Cultural Affairs.     

Household Saving in Japan

Recent research has indicated that Japanese and American saving behaviour may not be fundamentally different. In this paper we have tried to determine if aggregate saving in Japan, as in the United States, is driven by a small number of very wealthy or high-income households. We found that about 12% of households account for 75% of total positive saving, 75% of total negative saving and 75% of total net saving. These conclusions reinforce the hypothesis that the savings process in Japan is not distinctive, and highlight the importance of research on the heterogeneity of saving behaviour.
JEL Classification Numbers: D12, D31, E21.     

Saving and retirement behavior under quasi-hyperbolic discounting

This paper investigates saving and retirement behavior using a quasi-hyperbolic discounting model with endogenous labor supply. The behavior of quasi-hyperbolic-discounting consumers is compared with optimal behavior, which is obtained under exponential discounting. The quasi-hyperbolic discounters, whether naïve or sophisticated, under-save and retire early compared with an exponential discounter, if and only if the present-biased marginal utility of future consumption decreases with stronger present bias. Logarithmic utility functions and constant-absolute-risk-aversion utility functions can both exhibit this property. In other words, quasi-hyperbolic discounting explains why, consistent with previous empirical studies, under-savers might also be early retirers. Under logarithmic utility, a wage tax and an interest subsidy can counteract the under-saving and early retirement and improve consumer welfare.     

Leadership: social identity and guiding from within

An important field in leadership research is that of the social identity of the group and what that means for leadership. In health care, there are many different types of social identities that vary by hospital, geography, and profession. Leaders often sabotage their effectiveness when they do not consider the social values of the group. The work of leaders is to help move units and organizations to a higher level of performance. Identifying the social identity of the group is the first step. The most successful have expertise in assessing the social identity of groups and developing a commonality of a shared vision that represents the best work of the group and of the leader.     

Balance sheet identity and Walras' Law

The balance sheet identity is interpreted to imply that if n ? 1 of n assets are in stock equilibrium, so is the remaining asset. Under the notion of the end-of-period equilibrium, the following are shown. (1) This interpretation leads to the contradiction that the system does not allow enough independent equilibrium relations to determine uniquely the equilibrium values of its endogenous variables. (2) The balance sheet identity is equivalent to Walras' Law in flow form. Thus, Foley's methodological precept is verified; transforming a period model into its continuous time analogue does not lead to different outcomes from period analysis.     

Regional development and national identity in sub-Saharan Africa

We study how regional development affects identification with the nation state using a sample of 192 African regions in 16 countries. We measure national identification with survey data from the fourth wave of the Afrobarometer and proxy regional development with night lights data. To account for the endogeneity of regional development, we employ an instrumental variables approach and use a proxy for mineral resource wealth as our main instrument. Our results show that inhabitants of more prosperous regions are more likely to identify with their nation rather than their ethnic group. Regarding transmission channels, we find suggestive evidence consistent with the interpretation that national identification is higher in richer regions because of different cultural beliefs and a lower reliance on traditional ethnic networks. Overall, our research implies that African governments can foster national identification by ensuring that all parts of a country participate equitably in economic development.     

Risk Pooling, Precautionary Saving and Consumption Growth

In this paper we model the evolution of income risk and consumption growth. We decompose the time series innovation of the income process into its common and cohort-specific components. From these we compute conditional variances which are used as separate risk terms in a consumption growth equation. Using a long series of British household data we exploit the time-series variation to identify precautionary saving effects and find strong evidence of their importance. Specifically, after allowing for demographic and labour market status, there is an independent role for income risk in explaining consumption growth. Rather than the component that is common across cohorts, however, it is the cohort-specific element that is important in determining changes in consumption growth. This result points to a failure of between-cohort insurance mechanisms.     

全球气候变暖与节能的紧迫性

全球气候变暖已对人类生产与生活产生了很大的影响,文章利用统计实证的方法验证了二氧化碳气体排放与全球平均气温变化之间的关系,利用相关、回归与Granger因果关系检验,得出近年来二氧化碳排放量的增加是导致全球气候变暖的主要原因,而煤炭、石油、天然气消费量的增加又是引起全球二氧化碳排放量增加的主要原因。因此,节约能源,控制二氧化碳的排放,是应对全球气候变暖的必由之路。