The impact of targeting policy on spouses’ demand for public goods,labor supplies and sharing rule

This paper studies the impact of targeted unconditional cash transfers on the spouses’ demand for public goods, labor supplies and sharing of resources. We estimate a collective labor supply model with distributional factors which is extended to include preferences over marketable public goods (including child goods). In this way, unlike previous research, we consider the impact of such transfers on the intrahousehold allocation of resources and distinguish between the labeling and recipient effects. We exploit the UK experience and find evidence in favor of the collective model with separable preferences over labor supplies and public goods. This finding implies a recipient effect and not a labeling effect of child benefits. Given the household’s unearned income, the bigger the wife’s bargaining power, the more the resources allocated to public goods (including child goods) and the wife’s private consumption. The results can be useful in the design of family policy which aims to improve the relative welfare of children within the family and alleviate any intrahousehold consumption inequalities.     

Efficient markets and Bayes’ rule

Summary. A series of financial anomalies motivated the development of new theories that modify the rational expectations ideal. Two possibilities have been systematically explored. The literature on behavioral finance relaxes the assumption that agents form beliefs according to the laws of probability and assume, instead, that simpler heuristic rules are used. Another stream of the literature assumes that agents process information according to Bayes rule, but do not posses sufficient information to know the true data generating process. In this paper, Bayesian and Behavioral agents coexist and trade in a standard dynamic asset pricing model. A long-standing conjecture is demonstrated. It is shown that, under suitable assumptions, Bayesian agents drive Behavioral, non-Bayesian agents out of the market. Hence, asset prices are eventually determined under the Bayesian paradigm.Received: 3 June 2004, Revised: 17 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D83.Preliminary versions have circulated under the titles Markets Favor Bayesian Models and Market Selection of Empirical Models under Limited Information. I thank Larry Blume, David Easley, Larry Epstein, Armando Gomes, Bruce Hansen, Lars Hansen, Richard Kihlstrom, Grace Koo, George Mailath, Werner Ploberger, Andrew Postlewaite and Shakeeb Khan for useful comments. I also thank participants at the NBER GE meetings, Evolutionary Finance conference in Zurich, Latin American Meetings of the Econometric Society, Stanford Institute for Theoretical Economics, the Instituto de Matematica Pura e Aplicada, the theory seminar at Brown, Chicago, Harvard-MIT, Minnesota, Penn and Wisconsin. I gratefully acknowledge the financial support from the National Science Foundation Grant SES 0109650.     

What horizon for targeting inflation?

We investigate optimal horizons for targeting inflation in response to different shocks and their properties. Our analysis is based on a well specified macroeconometric model of Norway. We find that optimal horizons are highly shock-specific and do not increase with concern for output and/or interest rate fluctuations beyond some shock-specific levels. Optimal horizons increase with the degree of persistence in shocks while they are not affected by the size of a shock unless the central bank is averse to interest rate volatility. In the face of multiple shocks, however, sizes as well as signs of shocks become important for optimal horizons even when the central bank is not averse to interest rate volatility. This is because shocks of different signs and sizes may amplify or outweigh each others’ effects.     

Is the age 60 rule relevant?

In 1960 the Federal Aviation Administration in the United states put in place the age 60 rule that required airline pilots to retire upon reaching the age of 60 years. This rule has been challenged on numerous occasions, but the FAA has not changed the rule. A logit model is used to analyse accidents and incidents for 1989. Such factors as piolt training and experience, aircraft characteristics and whether are considered in analysing the impact of pilot age (to age 65) on accidents. Age is not found to be a statistically significant factor for pilots in three licence classes. This study provides indirect evidence that the age 60 rule may be unwarranted.     

The Copeland rule and Condorcet’s principle

Summary. The purpose of this note is to shed some light on the relationship between the Copeland rule and the Condorcet principle in those cases where there does not exist a Condorcet winner. It will be shown that the Copeland rule ranks alternatives according to their distances to being a Condorcet winner.Received: 30 July 2003, Revised: 31 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D70, D71.Christian Klamler: I am very grateful to Daniel Eckert and Nick Baigent for their helpful comments.     

The effects of inflation targeting on Okun’s law

This article provides the first empirical evidence that the adoption of inflation targeting (IT) matters for the extent of tradeoff between unemployment and output, that is Okun’s law. Our full sample results indicate that IT leads to a more negative Okun’s coefficient, suggesting that, for a given reduction of output, the introduction of IT is associated with a higher unemployment rate. Subsample analyses reveal that the whole sample results are mainly driven by the industrial subsample outcomes, not the developing counterparts. Our findings point out that IT not only influences macroeconomic variables per se but also affects the relationship between/among macroeconomic variables.     

Does inflation targeting make a difference in developing countries?

We evaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting in thirteen developing countries that have adopted this policy by the end of 2004. Using a variety of propensity score matching methods, we show that, on average, inflation targeting has large and significant effects on lowering both inflation and inflation variability in these thirteen countries. However, the effectiveness of inflation targeting on lowering inflation is found to be quite heterogeneous. The performance of a given inflation targeting regime can be affected by country characteristics such as government's fiscal position, central bank's desire to limit the movements of exchange rate, its willingness to meet the preconditions of policy adoption, and the time length since the policy adoption.     

Is inflation targeting a good remedy to control inflation?

Since the 1990s inflation targeting (IT) has been adopted by several central banks as a strategy for monetary policy. It is expected that the adoption of this monetary regime can reduce inflation and inflation volatility. This article is concerned with these issues and makes use of the Propensity Score Matching methodology on a sample of 180 countries for the period from 1990 to 2007. For analysis, the sample is split into two sets of countries (advanced and developing). The findings suggest that the adoption of IT is an ideal monetary regime for developing economies and, in addition to reducing inflation volatility, can drive inflation down to internationally acceptable levels. Regarding advanced economies, the adoption of IT does not appear to represent an advantageous strategy. In brief, the empirical results indicate that the adoption of IT is useful for countries that must enhance their credibility for the management of monetary policy.     

Is inflation targeting credible in Asia? A panel GARCH approach

We examine the relationship between inflation targeting and the behavior of the level and volatility of inflation for eight Asian countries over the period 1987–2013. In contrast to existing studies that rely upon time series methods, we employ a novel panel GARCH model that accounts for heterogeneity and interdependence across countries. Our main contribution is to shed new light on the inflation targeting credibility hypothesis based on lower inflation and inflation volatility as well as on the correlation between unanticipated inflation shocks within a panel GARCH framework. We find strong evidence of a reduction in the level of inflation that operates from the impact of actual inflation targets in the Philippines, South Korea and Thailand. We also find that the adoption of inflation targeting helped lower inflation volatility in the Philippines and South Korea. Overall, the results suggest that Asian inflation targeting regimes are more credible in terms of reducing the level of inflation than lowering inflation volatility. There is also evidence that the covariance of inflation shocks among inflation targeting and non-targeting countries tends to increase.     

Keynes' decision rule,on “expectation” in the general theory

Keynes' behavioural foundation of liquidity preference is formalized by combining to a decision rule his marginal efficiency of capital with a non-expected-utility preference relation on random variables. It is argued that this preference relation is meant when he uses the term “expectation” in the General Theory. The preference relation is simply determined by three parameters (among them the median) of the probability distribution but does not share the disadvantages of mean-variance-preferences.     

Is Canada an optimal currency area? An inflation targeting perspective

We propose a method, based on the currency union model of Galí and Monacelli ( 2008 ), to determine whether a region within an existing currency area belongs in the currency union. The method involves assessing the predictability of regional inflation rates at medium term horizons. We apply the method to the Canadian provinces and find that for all but Alberta there is little evidence of costs in terms of inflation arising from national monetary policy. For Alberta, the evidence suggests that they are not as well served by the inflation targeting framework and that a more flexible policy environment might improve inflation outcomes.     

Oil price–inflation pass-through in Romania during the inflation targeting regime

In the wake of the inflation-targeting strategy in Romania, we estimate the impact of international oil prices upon the consumer price index (CPI) and core inflation. The inflation target was systematically missed by the monetary authorities who explain this failure by exogenous factors. Using a frequency domain framework, we show that the oil price–inflation pass-through can be observed only for those components of inflation which include volatile prices and only in the medium run. Our results put forward that the constant missing of the target cannot be explained by the oil price–inflation pass-through and the credibility of the strategy is put into question.     

Do formula-based intergovernmental transfer mechanisms eliminate politically motivated targeting? Evidence from Ghana

Various countries have adopted formulas for determining intergovernmental transfers as a strategy to limit the role of political considerations in resource allocation. In this paper, we investigate a formula-based system of allocating resources from a central government to local governments to determine whether the political characteristics of recipient areas have any bearing on their allocation. Specifically, we study the sharing of resources of the District Assemblies Common Fund (DACF) in Ghana amongst the country's district governments over the period 1994 to 2005. We find evidence that the mechanism does not eliminate politically motivated targeting of the grants. Per capita DACF grants were higher in districts where vote margins in the previous presidential election were lower, suggesting that swing districts were targeted. We find evidence that DACF formula indicators and their weighting were chosen and amended to produce politically desired patterns of transfers.     

Credible enough? Forward guidance and perceived National Bank of Poland’s policy rule

Forward guidance effectiveness is conditional upon its credibility. This policy, when taken as credible, should reduce the perceived impact of macroeconomic variables on the interest rate. Using the Taylor rule framework and employing micro-level data set, we test the perception of monetary policy in Poland among professional forecasters. Our results show that the Taylor principle is violated in the forward guidance period, which provides evidence for forward guidance credibility.     

Who to punish? Individual decisions and majority rule in mitigating the free rider problem

We study a voluntary contributions mechanism in which punishment may be allowed, depending on subjects’ voted rules. We found that out of 160 group votes, even when groups had no prior experience with unrestricted punishment, no group ever voted to allow unrestricted punishment and no group ever allowed punishment of high contributors. Over a series of votes and periods of learning we found a distinct reluctance to allow any punishment at the beginning, with a gradual but clear evolution toward allowing punishment of low contributors. And groups allowing punishment of only low contributors achieved levels of cooperation and efficiency that are among the highest in the literature on social dilemmas.     

A generalization of the Cairns–Krautkraemer model and the optimality of the mining rule

There exists a rule of thumb of mines, which decides how the cut-off grade (the lowest grade of extracted ore) should change in response to a change in the price of the metal. It requires that the cut-off grade should decrease (increase) when the present value price of metal increases (decreases). In this paper, the optimality of the rule will be examined by generalizing the Cairns–Krautkraemer model under the perfect foresight assumption.     

The debt brake: business cycle and welfare consequences of Germany’s new fiscal policy rule

In a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian consumers, we show that automatic stabilization according to a countercyclical spending rule following the idea of the debt brake is well suited both to steer the economy and in terms of welfare. In particular, the adjustment account set up to record public deficits and surpluses serves well to keep the level of government debt stable. However, it is essential to design its feedback to government spending correctly, where discretionary lapses should be corrected faster than lapses due to estimation errors.     

Is inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate more effective for attracting FDI into developing countries?

This article investigates which monetary policy regime – inflation targeting or the fixed exchange rate – is more effective for attracting FDI inflows into developing countries. Using propensity score matching and the difference-in-differences estimator, we find no evidence that adopting an inflation targeting regime would be more effective than adopting a fixed exchange rate, and vice versa, in encouraging FDI inflows.     

On the evolutionary edge of altruism: a game-theoretic proof of Hamilton’s rule for a simple case of siblings

We offer a game-theoretic proof of Hamiltons rule for the spread of altruism. For a simple case of siblings, we show that the rule can be derived as the outcome of a one-shot prisoners dilemma game between siblings.JEL Classification: A13, C70, D64Correspondence to: Oded Stark, ZEF, University of Bonn, Walter-Flex-Strasse 3, 53113 Bonn, GermanyWe are indebted to an anonymous referee and to Uwe Cantner for helpful comments and suggestions. Partial financial support from the National Institute on Aging (grant RO1-AG13037) and from the Humboldt Foundation is gratefully acknowledged.