Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence

This paper shows there is no evidence that the inflation targeting regime (IT) improves economic performance as measured by the behavior of inflation and output growth in developing countries. The control of common time effects results in less negative and less significant IT impacts on inflation, inflation volatility and output growth volatility than previously found in the literature. Additionally, our analysis shows robust evidence of lower output growth during IT adoption. On balance, although lower long-run mean inflation signals that the central banks of emerging economies with inflation targeting are more inflation-averse, the costs of disinflation have not been lower than under other monetary regimes.     

Inflation dynamics in a small emerging market

This study investigates the determinants of inflation in the Dominican Republic during 1991 to 2002, a period characterized by remarkable macroeconomic stability and growth. By developing a parsimonious and empirically stable error correction model using quarterly observations, the study finds that inflation is explained by changes in monetary aggregates, real output, foreign inflation and the exchange rate. Long-run relationships in the money and traded goods markets are found to exist, but only the disequilibrium from the money market exerts a significant impact on inflation.     

Investment in emerging market economies

This article empirically models investment in emerging economies. Using dynamic panel estimation methods and quarterly data for 31 emerging economies for the period 1990:1?C2008:3, we show that (i) the GDP and the cost of capital are the key fundamental determinants of investment; (ii) financial factors (such as equity prices, credit and lending rate) play a relevant role on the dynamics of investment, in particular, for Asian and Latin American countries; (iii) investment growth exhibits substantial persistence and (iv) crises episodes magnify the negative response of investment.     

Inflation targeting and financial stability in emerging markets

This paper aims at investigating whether emerging market inflation targeters are more financially vulnerable than their non-targeting counterparts. It further assesses the extent to which targeting central banks are less responsive to financial imbalances, compared to those implementing alternative policy strategies. Based on a sample of 26 emerging countries, including 13 targeters, the analysis suggests that monetary policy in targeting countries is relatively more sensitive to financial risks. However, despite stronger central banks’ responses to financial imbalances, the financial sector appears to be more fragile for targeters. Our conclusion therefore challenges the view that central banks, through their policy interest rates, can guarantee the stability of the financial system. It rather suggests that the control of inflation should remain the primary monetary policy objective, while a (macro)prudential authority would be in charge of the financial stability objective.     

Financial market spillovers in transition economies

This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of other regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals. Higher-frequency data during three crisis periods reveals the presence of structural breaks in the relationship between exchange-, but not stock markets. While the reaction of markets during the Asian and Czech crises is muted, the pattern of high-frequency spillovers during the Russian crisis looks very similar to that observed in other regions during turbulent times. With greater financial market integration, the financial markets of the more advanced transition economies can be expected to behave more and more like their Asian and Latin American counterparts.     

Remittances and bond yield spreads in emerging market economies

This paper tests whether remittances reduce bond yield spreads in emerging market economies. Drawing upon instrumental variable techniques, our paper reveals that remittance inflows significantly reduce bond yield spreads. This result is robust to different specifications, alternative instrumentation techniques, additional control variables, and the use of credit default swap spreads in place of bond spreads. In addition, we find that the effect of remittances on spreads (i) is larger in (more) poorly developed financial systems, (ii) increases with the degree of trade openness, (iii) is larger in low fiscal space regimes, and (iv) is larger in nonremittance‐dependent countries. The paper concludes that policies that improve the measurement of remittance inflows and reduce their transfer costs or that enable countries to develop securitization of remittances and diaspora bonds could help emerging market economies to leverage remittances for international capital market access.     

Fiscal decentralization and fiscal consolidations in emerging market economies

Results using event study analysis based on a data panel of expenditure and revenue developments in emerging market economies during 1972–2001 indicate that subnational governments supported fiscal consolidation efforts by cutting their capital expenditure and increasing their revenues.     

International cross-listing and stock market development in emerging economies

Why have emerging equity markets grown so rapidly since 1990? First, it is shown how international cross-listings can transform a segmented local equity market from an equilibrium of low liquidity and market capitalization to an integrated market with high liquidity and market capitalization by altering the incentives of companies and individuals to participate in the market. Second, benefits of international cross-listings for domestic stock market development and welfare across emerging equity markets are found to be negatively related to both the degree of correlation between the domestic and world equity market and the relative size of the domestic equity market. Third, the price impact of international listing is shown to depend on the liquidity conditions in the domestic market prior to listing.     

Stock market integration of emerging Asian economies: Patterns and causes

In this study, we examine the patterns and causes of stock market integration of selected emerging Asian nations against the US, Australia, China, and India for the period 1 January 2001 to 31 March 2012. We compare patterns of market integration for countries on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis using the time-varying correlation technique, namely, GARCH-dynamic conditional correlations (DCCs). In doing so, we suggest that opportunities in cross border investment vary by frequencies. We also divide daily data into subsamples and find that correlations were strongest during the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2007–09. The time varying bilateral correlations are found to be highly volatile. We also investigate the causes of identified correlations and find that apart from the GFC, the underlying economic and financial conditions have also been responsible for the higher correlations between these stock markets.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

Central bank independence and stock market returns in emerging economies

We investigate the effect of central bank independence on stock market returns in emerging economies. We find evidence for a positive overall effect, but economic independence of the central bank appears to be more relevant than political independence.     

Crisis and recovery: Role of the exchange rate regime in emerging market economies

Following the recent global financial crisis, questions about the mechanisms that can help countries cope with large shocks have resurfaced. This paper examines the role of the exchange rate regime in explaining how emerging market economies fared in the recent global financial crisis, particularly in terms of output losses and output rebound. After controlling for regime switches during the crisis, using alternative definitions for pegs, and taking account of other likely determinants, we find that the growth performance for pegs was not different from that of floats during the crisis. The picture is different for the recovery period 2010–2011, as pegs appear to be faring worse, with growth recovering more slowly than floats. These results suggest an asymmetric effect of the regime during and recovering from the crisis. We also find that proxies of the trade and financial channels are important determinants of growth performance during the crisis, while only the trade channel appears important for the recovery thus far.     

Monetary policy and commodity terms of trade shocks in emerging market economies

Commodity terms of trade shocks have continued to drive macroeconomic fluctuations in most emerging market economies. The volatility and persistence of these shocks have posed great challenges for monetary policy. This study employs a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model to evaluate the optimal monetary policy responses to commodity terms of trade shocks in commodity dependent emerging market economies. The model is calibrated to the South African economy. The study shows that CPI inflation targeting performs relatively better than exchange rate targeting and non-traded inflation targeting both in terms of reducing macroeconomic volatility and reducing the losses of a non-benevolent central bank. However, macroeconomic stabilisation comes at a cost of increased exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the appropriate response to commodity induced exogenous shocks is to target CPI inflation.     

Volatility spillovers of unconventional monetary policy to emerging market economies

Emerging market economies (EMEs) have experienced waves of market volatility since the global financial crisis, with some commentators ascribing this at least partly related to monetary policy decisions in advanced economies. This paper examines volatility spillovers from changes in the size of the balance sheets of the Federal Reserve (FED) and European Central Bank (ECB) to EMEs from 2003 to 2018. We find that volatility spillovers to EME currency markets are greater in magnitude from the FED, while EME stock and bond markets are also vulnerable to volatility spillovers in a similar magnitude from both the ECB and the FED. We find only limited evidence of volatility transmission to the real economy of EMEs following the monetary policy actions of the FED and ECB. Finally, we show that the proportion of the volatility in EMEs that is accounted for by changes in FED and ECB balance sheets shifts over time. Our paper has important policy implications for EMEs, notably in respect of volatility transmission channels.     

The relative importance of capital inflows: some evidence from emerging market economies

This article examines the relative importance of the main components of capital inflows for a sample of emerging market economies. Does composition matter? Is there a nexus between capital inflow components? We assess, firstly, how each capital inflow component reacts to important macro and policy variables, and secondly, how the components themselves interact. We find that bank inflows appear the most sensitive to macro factors, institutions matter more for Latin America and external financial factors matter more for Asia. Further, for Latin America, capital inflows interact largely as complements, while for Asia, any expansion of bank inflows might crowd out FDI and portfolio flows.     

Stock market integration and risk premium: Empirical evidence for emerging economies of South Asia

This article investigates the dynamics of regional financial integration and its determinants in an international setting. We test a conditional version of the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) accounting for the deviations from Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) as well as temporal variations in both regional and local sources of risk. Using data from five major South Asian markets (Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka), our results support the validity of an ICAPM and indicate that the risk is regionally priced. Furthermore, we show that changes in the degree of regional stock market integration are explained principally by the U.S. term premium, and the level of market openness, whatever the measure of currency risk. Finally, and as expected, the degree of stock market integration varies considerably over time and from one market to another. As intense market integration induces both benefits and risks, our findings should have significant implications for economic policies and market regulations in emerging, frontier-emerging and transition countries, particularly for countries from the same region.     

Estimating monetary policy reaction functions for emerging market economies: The case of Brazil

The paper investigates monetary policy in Brazil following a shift to a floating exchange rate alongside inflation targeting adoption. The benchmark reaction function reveals that the Central Bank behaves according to the Taylor principle by raising the overnight Selic policy interest rate more than the amount by which expected inflation exceeds the target. The investigation also considers a data-rich environment via an excess policy response containing information from a panel of 45 economic time series. The excess policy response carries a positive and significant coefficient in the reaction function including only an inflation gap variable.     

Privatization and corruption in transition economies: a panel study

By using three corruption indices, six privatization indicators, and taking the endogeneity problem into consideration, we test the hypothesis that privatization contributes to a decrease in corruption in transition economies. We identified a highly statistically significant and negative association between privatization and corruption in transition economies for three different corruption indices and six different privatization indicators.     

Inflation targeting in Brazil

The purpose of this paper is to examine the Inflation Targeting (IT) framework as it is applied in the case of Brazil since its adoption in June 1999. For this purpose we first summarize the macroeconometric model utilized by the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) in its pursuit of the IT framework. While the focus of this paper is on Brazil, we also examine the experience of other countries with IT (in particular, the BRIC countries: Brazil, Russia, India, and China), both for comparative purposes and for evidence of the extent of success of this ‘new’ economic policy pursued by other IT countries. In addition, we compare the experience of Brazil with IT and with that of non‐IT countries. In the context of non‐IT countries, we ask the question of whether it makes a difference in the fight against inflation whether a country has adopted IT or not. Finally, we examine some features of the Brazilian experience with IT regime.