我国垂直型产业内贸易的特征分析

本文认为我国在产业内贸易方面,出口产品以低质量为特征,进口产品则以高质量为特征,属于垂直型产业内贸易活动。对我国2001年至2003年产业内贸易的跨部门计量分析显示,我国产业内贸易对劳动要素的弹性略大于对资本要素的弹性,我国产业内贸易充分利用了我国劳动要素的比较优势,并成为了其一个重要特征。     

中国纺织服装产业内贸易现状及决定因素实证研究——基于 2002～2010年面板数据的分析

本文从静态和动态角度考察了2002～2010年中国纺织服装业总体、水平型和垂直型产业内贸易现状及其决定因素。实证结果表明:中国纺织服装总体产业内贸易发展缓慢,水平不高,仍以产业间贸易为主;各子产品产业内贸易水平高低不一,以垂直型产业内贸易为主导。经济规模、人均收入水平与我国产业内贸易尤其是水平型产业内贸易呈正相关,且有显著增强趋势;人均收入差异对我国纺织服装VIIT起到正向作用,且影响显著;地理距离对中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT起到了较显著负面影响;人民币汇率变动与中国纺织服装TIIT、HIIT和VIIT正相关,且影响程度有增强趋势;贸易不平衡与我国TIIT、HIIT和VIIT显著负相关,且影响程度有增强趋势。贸易开放度对我国纺织服装TI-IT、HIIT和VIIT的影响不显著。     

ECFA框架下海峡两岸产业内贸易发展研究

近十年台湾和大陆之间的贸易规模和水平的持续飞速提高为产业内贸易的形成提供了基础,产业内贸易越来越成为其贸易利益的主要来源。文章通过对2000～2009年大陆与台湾产业内贸易总体水平、按技术含量高低分类的产品产业内贸易水平、边际产业内贸易水平以及水平型和垂直型产业内贸易进行量化分析,结果显示海峡两岸产业内贸易总体水平比较高,并且水平型产业内贸易占总产业内贸易的份额有所上升,表明大陆与台湾在国际分工的地位上以及技术水平上的差距正在逐步缩小。文章最后提出了在ECFA框架下发展海峡两岸产业内贸易的对策建议。     

从产业间贸易到产业内贸易——我国贸易结构演变的实证研究

本文基于我国1992-2003年间的数据,对产业间-产业内贸易结构及其与经济发展水平之间的联系进行检验。首先将产业内贸易分为水平型与垂直型两类,考察了产业间贸易、两种类型产业内贸易结构的演变。然后探讨了贸易结构的这种演变与我国经济发展水平之间的关系。得出以下结论:我国贸易结构以垂直产业内贸易为主,并且具有增加趋势;产业间贸易比重略低于垂直产业内贸易比重,但呈现减少趋势;水平产业内贸易比重一直较小。我国垂直产业内贸易与我国参与国际垂直分工的程度密不可分,并且垂直产业内贸易的发展与经济发展水平之间具有显著的正相关性。     

Vertical Intra-Industry Trade and Product Fragmentation in the Auto-Parts Industry

A distinctive feature of present globalization is the development of international production sharing activities, i.e. production fragmentation. The increased importance of fragmentation in world trade has created an interest among trade economists in explaining the determinants of intra-industry trade (IIT) in intermediate goods. In this study, the extent of IIT in Austria’s auto-parts trade is analyzed by decomposing Austria’s auto-parts trade into one-way trade, vertical IIT, and horizontal intra-industry trade IIT. Then, the development of vertical IIT in the auto-parts industry is examined as an indicator for international fragmentation of the production process between Austria and its 29 trading partners, and various country-specific factors suggested by the fragmentation literature are tested using panel econometrics as well as more recent data from 1996 to 2006. The results show that a substantial portion of IIT in the Austrian auto-parts industry is vertical IIT, and the econometric results mainly support the hypothesis drawn from the fragmentation theory. In particular, the findings show that the extent of Austria’s vertical IIT in auto-parts is positively correlated with average market size, differences in per capita GDP, and foreign direct investment, while it is negatively correlated with distance.     

中澳两国产业内贸易的实证研究——基于1997-2007年进出口贸易数据

本文首先通过理论和实证比较选取Aquino指数对中澳两国产业内贸易状况进行了测度,然后利用GHM法将产业内贸易细分为垂直型和水平型,从更深层次研究中澳两国产业内贸易现状和发展趋势,结果发现:中澳两国初级产品产业内贸易整体水平较低,但Aquino指数呈现上升趋势,产业内贸易水平有进一步提升的空间;中澳两国制成品产业内贸易整体水平明显高于初级产品,但无论是资本、技术密集型产业还是劳动密集型产业,中国都不具有优势,中国劳动密集型制成品没有表现出预想优势,贸易条件持续恶化,资本或技术密集型制成品与澳大利亚有较大差距,但差距呈现缩小趋势。     

Bilateral intra-industry trade flows and intellectual property rights protections: further evidence from the United Kingdom

This paper investigates the relationship between the United Kingdom's (hereafter referred as UK) bilateral intra-industry trade (IIT) and foreign intellectual property rights (IPRs) protections. The empirical investigation is based on pooled UK data and benefits from the theoretical distinction between horizontal and vertical IIT. It also estimates a gravity equation for international trade using both fixed and random effects models. We then extend the analysis by employing the GMM system for dynamic panel models. The principal findings suggest that the UK's IIT is stimulated when the level of a trading partner's IPRs and its imitative ability are considered jointly. However, when IPRs and imitation abilities are considered separately, their disparate effects are not an important factor in determining UK IIT flows.     

产业内贸易决定因素——基于我国装备制造业的静态面板数据

本文利用F-F指数计算了我国制造业产业内贸易水平,结果显示产业内贸易处于较高水平并且呈上升趋势。对指数进行分解可以看出:垂直型产业内贸易虽然下降但仍处于主导地位;水平型产业内贸易在上升,说明我国装备制造业目前还处于加工贸易的低端,但在不断提升国际分工地位。对产业内贸易决定因素的实证研究显示,要素禀赋及其变化是引起产业内贸易变动的主要因素,而外商直接投资、规模经济和产品差异三个因素的影响很微弱,这表明我国装备制造业扩张的基础是比较优势且主要集中于产业链低端。     

Vertical Intra‐industry Trade and Fragmentation: An Empirical Examination of the US Auto‐parts Industry

The global auto industry has undergone a significant structural transformation in the last two decades as a result of the international fragmentation of production. This increase in cross‐border production‐sharing activities in the auto industry led to intra‐industry trade (IIT) in auto‐parts. In this study, the extent of IIT in the US auto‐parts industry is examined by decomposing trade into inter‐industry trade, vertical IIT and horizontal IIT. Then the development of vertical IIT is analysed as an indicator of international fragmentation between the US and 29 trading partners. Several country‐specific hypotheses suggested by the fragmentation literature are tested for the period 1989–2006. The results indicate that a substantial portion of IIT in the US auto‐parts industry is vertical IIT, and the econometric results generally support the hypotheses drawn from the theory. In particular, the findings show that the extent of the US vertical IIT is positively correlated with average market size, differences in market size, differences in factor endowments and outward foreign direct investment, while it is negatively correlated with distance and differences in per capita GDP.     

产业内贸易的计量

产业内贸易是同一产业内产品同时进口和出口的贸易活动。对产业内贸易计量方法的研究一直是产业内贸易理论研究的重点之一。文章在回顾了传统计量方法的基础上 ,概括和推导出新的计量方法 ,并加以论证 ,进而归纳出当前最优的产业内贸易计量方法。最后 ,结合我国情况予以实证检验 ,并分析我国产业内贸易的实际水平和发展趋势。     

范围不经济与国际贸易的新基础——对国际产品内贸易起因的解释

本文认为,国际产品内贸易可分为产业间的产品内贸易和产业内的产品内贸易,比较优势理论能解释产业间的产品内贸易,但还没有理论能解释产业内的产品内贸易。文章提出的国际贸易新基础,即由厂商管理约束所导致的范围不经济系数较大而最终产品内的中间产品种类数较多是国际产业内的产品内贸易的基础,比较彻底地解释了产业内的产品内贸易,实现了国际贸易理论的创新。同时文章指出,厂商发挥规模经济效应与实现产品内贸易的决策是被"孪生"地决定的,即理性厂商既不能为了发挥规模经济效应而不合理地减少中间产品种类数,也不能不合理地通过增加中间产品种类数来增加总利润,否则总利润就会减少;交易成本较小是国际产品内分工与贸易的必要条件而非充分条件;第三次科技革命是最终产品国际贸易向中间产品国际贸易发展的直接原因。     

我国钢铁业产业内贸易的实证研究

文章从整体和分类两个层面上对我国钢产量居世界第一以来的钢铁业产业内贸易的水平和结构进行了实证研究。结果表明,我国钢铁业产业内贸易水平较低,贸易变动主要由产业间贸易引起;而且钢铁业的垂直型产业内贸易水平较低,产业内贸易以水平型产业内贸易为主。我国为此应该采取相关对策,促进钢铁业产业内贸易的发展。     

中韩产业内贸易的实证分析与促进策略

文章运用Bergstrand双边产业内贸易指数和GHM分析方法,对2001年至2009年中韩双边产业内贸易指数和贸易结构情况进行计算和分析。结论认为,中韩双边初级产品以传统的产业间贸易为主,工业制品产业内贸易指数呈现波动上扬趋势;劳动密集型产品主要进行低质量的垂直型产业内贸易,资本和技术密集型产品则是低质量的水平型和垂直型产业内贸易并存,两国仍然处于低水平的贸易合作层次。为提升中韩产业内贸易水平,从企业和政府两个层面提出促进产业内贸易发展的举措。     

Marginal Intra-Industry Trade and Employment Reallocation: The Case Study of Iran’s Manufacturing Industries

The purpose of this paper is to test the smooth adjustment hypothesis by using panel technique for Iran’s manufacturing industries at the 4-digit aggregation level of ISIC classification, during time period 2001–2006. According to the smooth adjustment hypothesis, intra-industry trade expansion entails lower adjustment costs than inter-industry one. In this paper, by distinguishing marginal intra industry trade to its horizontal and vertical types and employing the total reallocation effect as a proxy of the adjustment cost of reallocation between sectors and occupations, we’ve tested smooth adjustment hypothesis for both marginal intra industry trade and its types. So, comparing with other empirical studies, this paper has used marginal vertical and horizontal intra industry trade as well as marginal intra industry trade to test the hypothesis. The obtained results do not support the hypothesis for marginal intra industry trade. On the other hand, by distinguishing marginal intra industry trade to marginal horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade, this hypothesis is expectedly confirmed. This result is justifiable since marginal horizontal intra industry trade is a change of intra industry trade with the similar factor intensity while marginal vertical intra industry trade is mainly based on the differences in factor endowment.     

中日两国产业内贸易的实证研究

本文对中日双边贸易中制成品产业内贸易的发展现状、特征以及影响因素进行了实证研究,发现随着中日双边贸易中资本和技术密集型产品比重的提高,制成品产业内贸易比重也有所提高;其中,机械和运输设备产业内贸易所占比重最高;垂直差异化产品产业内贸易是中日制成品产业内贸易的主要形式;日本对华直接投资活动活跃、跨国公司国际一体化生产体系的构筑及其产业内投资的发展、中国持续经济增长引起的市场容量扩大、加工贸易的快速发展、产品差异化发展以及便利的地理区位因素均有利于促进双边产业内贸易的发展,规模经济和贸易壁垒因素对其则尚存消极影响。     

基于产品内分工视角的我国贸易转型升级路径研究

20世纪70年代以来,国际分工经历了由产业间分工、产业内分工向产品内分工不断深化的过程。作为发展中贸易大国,中国参与国际分工的方式也由传统的水平分工向垂直专业化分工演变,并以加工贸易为主要方式切入了全球价值链的低端环节。本文从产品内分工的视角,测度中国参与国际产品内分工的水平,针对中国参与国际产品内分工的各个环节,采用贸易余额贡献率(CTB)指数衡量我国各个生产环节的贸易份额和贸易余额贡献率,并以电器设备、机械器具和纺织品为例,分析这三个部门产品内贸易各环节的情况和近年来的发展趋势。在此基础上,提出了在产品内分工体系下我国贸易转型升级的路径。     

后配额时代中国纺织服装业产业内贸易研究

文章对后配额时代中国纺织服装业的产业内贸易规模、水平及结构进行了实证研究,结果显示,中国纺织服装产业对外贸易快速增长的同时,整体产业内贸易发展比较缓慢,产业内贸易水平较低;贸易模式主要表现为产业间贸易。部分纺织产品产业内贸易以垂直型为主,其中低质量垂直型占绝对主导地位,产业内贸易的层次有待提升。     

产业内贸易对劳动力市场调整的影响分析——基于中国制造业面板数据的SAH检验

随着中国经济全球化进程的深化,外贸对国内经济的影响日益显著。根据平滑调整假说(SAH),劳动力市场调整成本会随着产业内贸易水平的提高而降低。基于中国制造业22个细分行业面板数据进行检验,本文发现间隔3年的边际内产业指数最为有效,且产业内贸易水平对劳动力市场调整具有滞后效应,但回归分析结果并不支持SAH。随着产业内贸易比例扩大,劳动力的产业间调整增加,而并非产业内的调整。此外,劳动生产率和国内显性需求对劳动力市场调整有很大影响,在产业内贸易水平较高的行业内,劳动生产率的这种影响更加显著,而显性需求和产业内贸易水平影响作用较弱。     

Trade,development, and poverty-induced comparative advantage

This paper deals with the relation between trade and development when poverty affects individual decision making. We develop a two-sector model that links production and schooling decisions under poverty with standard neo-classical trade analyses. The decision to either work or acquire skills depends on households having reached subsistence levels of income, implying that the income level of a country becomes important in establishing comparative advantages and trade patterns. Trade liberalisation is always allocative efficient, but its timing is important for the speed by which countries industrialise. Our analysis supports the idea that there are instances that stalling trade liberalisation may serve industrial development.     

产业内贸易与我国加工贸易的发展

规模经济效应和技术差异促进了战后产业内贸易的迅速发展,产业内贸易日益取代产业间贸易成为国际贸易的主要形式。本文认为,近年来跨国公司内部贸易发展迅速,而随着跨国公司对华直接投资的发展,加工贸易成为我国制造业产业内贸易的重要推动因素。为促进我国加工贸易的现代化发展,推动我国与发达国家的产业内贸易由垂直型向水平型发展,必须充分发挥跨国公司的技术外溢效应,带动国内相关产业的技术进步与产业升级。此外,有必要运用战略性贸易政策保护国内产业,获得规模经济以促进我国产业内贸易的发展。