The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

We use a SVAR approach to the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as their interactions (policy mix) for the US and the Euro Area (EMU). Overall, our results show that these two cases are different from each other. First, while in the case of the US there is evidence of Keynesian monetary policy, the same is not true in the case of the EMU. Second, considering the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, there is evidence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy in the case of the EMU (expansionary fiscal consolidation), while it does not hold in the case of the US. Third, there is evidence supporting the traditional inverse relationship between monetary policy interest rates and inflation in the case of the US, whereas in the case of the EMU there is a price puzzle (frequent in SVAR studies). Fourth, the baseline model seems to be robust in the case of the US, when considering the effects of the economic and financial crisis 2007–2009, while the opposite holds in the case of the EMU. However, in both cases, the policies seem to act as complements. Another similarity appears when analysing the relationship between public spending and taxation, where there is evidence supporting a fiscal retrenchment.     

Restoring Credible Economic Governance to the Eurozone

This paper discusses new institutional rules for a stable and lasting European Monetary Union (EMU). We propose a return to a strict and sustainable economic governance framework, which is mainly driven by market forces within a smart rule‐based environment. Our recommendations are: (a) ex ante conditionalities with a tough monitoring process to avoid moral hazard in the future; (b) further enhancement of the Stability and Growth Pact; and (c) ultimo ratio punishment to be able to respond to the unique constellation of fiscal–monetary interaction and new rescue facilities. Countries violating fiscal rules for more than four years in a row will thus lose their fiscal sovereignty or will have to resign from the Eurozone. After fulfilling the ex ante conditionalities as well as all required criteria, the country either will recover its fiscal sovereignty, or, in case of exclusion, will be given the option to rejoin EMU under certain conditions.     

Briefing Paper: The Interdependence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy under Economic and Monetary Union

This article explores the implications of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the conduct of fiscal policy. Under EMU, where the European Central Bank is successful in controlling inflation, the loss of seigniorage revenues causes a potential problem for public sector deficits. To prevent the debt-income ratio from spiralling upwards, a primary budget surplus is ultimately required. EMU has usually been considered as a strong central monetary authority which forces fiscal discipline on lax national governments. But this is not the only possibility. Because the debt ratio can be reduced by surprise inflation, the price expectations of the private sector are important. Once these are taken into account, EMU can be examined in a 'game' framework in which the reputation of the authorities and the existence or otherwise of cooperation between the fiscal and monetary authorities becomes a critical factor.
The paper finds that where the authorities enjoy reputation and cooperate, a one-off reduction in public spending will lead to a permanent decline in the real interest rate and crowd in extra private spending (consumption and investment). Without reputation the cut in government spending has to be sustained. Where there is neither reputation nor cooperation, the outcome depends on the structure of the European economy and whether fiscal policy can effect the terms of trade between countries. If the terms of trade remain unchanged, the outturn is similar to the case of cooperation without reputation, but where the terms of trade can be improved in one country, there is no incentive to cut public spending. In this case the outturn is higher inflation with private spending crowded out.     

The ins and outs of European Monetary Union: some public policy issues

This paper reviews the problems, other than the foregone benefits of EMU, that would face countries-either EU members or non-members closely associated with the EU-as a consequence of staying outside EMU.
Problems both economic and political are discussed, but the primary focus is on economic issues.
It is concluded that there may be minor adverse consequences; but they are only a possibility.
What is clear is that claims that there will inevitably be major adverse consequences - higher inflation or interest rates, or lower growth, for example - are entirely without foundation.     

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss of national monetary policy autonomy and internal exchange rate flexibility inside the EMU area. However, external exchange rate adjustment, i.e. adjustment of the euro exchange rate, remains a feasible adjustment mechanism. This paper analyses how internal and external exchange rate flexibility affect macroeconomic adjustment in EMU and non-EMU countries. To do so, a model is constructed in which three countries interact: two countries that decide to form a monetary union and a third country that does not participate in the monetary union. Numerical simulations of a representative example are used to characterise the adjustment dynamics induced by monetary and fiscal policies before and after the start of the EMU.     

Alternative monetary policies and fiscal regime in new EU members

I investigate the relevance of a fiscal regime for disinflation in new EU member states (NMS). I generalize the framework of [Obstfeld, M., Rogoff, K., 1995. Exchange rate dynamics redux. Journal of Political Economy 103, 624–660] to incorporate the non-Ricardian fiscal regime and two monetary feedback rules: inflation targeting and depreciation targeting. Euro accession requires disinflation and stabilization of the exchange rate and thus restrictive monetary policy. The model illustrates that a sustainable and prudent fiscal policy is a necessary condition for successful stabilization of inflation. Thus, the lack of prudent fiscal policy, through its effects on inflation, may undermine the EMU accession of large NMS even when their fiscal outcomes fall within the Maastricht range.     

Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union

Governments are confronted with the growing realization that they face fiscal limits on the size of debt and deficits relative to GDP. These fiscal limits invalidate Bohn's criterion for fiscal sustainability, which allows explosive debt relative to GDP, eventually violating any fiscal limit. We derive restrictions on a fiscal rule, necessary for the government to eliminate explosive behavior. These restrictions require that the response of the primary surplus to debt be relatively strong, and that the primary surplus be cointegrated with both debt and output. We test these empirical implications for a panel of eleven EMU countries, and find that they are satisfied, implying that fiscal policy does not create explosive behavior.     

Economic and fiscal impact analysis of energy development projects: Coal liquefaction in the Illinois Basin

This paper addresses the problem of anticipating the local economic, demographic and fiscal impacts occurring from the siting of coal liquefaction facilities in the Illinois Basin. This region (primarily western Kentucky) will contain some of the most ambitious liquefaction projects in the U.S., yet no comprehensive method for the estimation of these impacts currently exists. It is suggested that the solution might lie with the development of an integrated econometric impact evaluation model. The potential economic, demographic and fiscal impacts of these projects are also described, preliminary analyses using existing economic impact assessment methods are presented, and certain policy analysis applications are highlighted.     

The future of Europe - and Britain's economic future in Europe: the perspective of a Europe-based multinational

The paper asks why Europe matters, what a company like Unilever wants from Europe, what developments will deliver these conditions and whether it matters if Britain is in or out of Europe. It concludes that the most important benefit from Europe has been the Single Market. Developments which promote it such as EMU should be supported but other economic issues such as competitiveness and unemployment also need to be addressed. The benefits of the Single Market can most easily be secured inside Europe.     

发达国家低碳财税政策及其借鉴

随着经济社会的快速发展,资源环境与人类社会的供需矛盾日益突出,低碳经济迅速成为发达国家应对全球气候变化的新的经济发展模式,这对中国来说既是挑战,更是机遇。借鉴发达国家实施低碳财税政策的经验,对我国正确选择、实施低碳财政收入政策和财政支出政策,构建支持低碳经济发展的低碳财税政策体系,从而自觉贯彻落实科学发展观,推进经济可持续发展,具有重要的现实意义。     

The Pivotal Role of the ECB in the New Europe

With the successful launch of EMU at the beginning of January 1999, the key question is how well the new grouping of 11 countries – Euroland – will perform macroeconomically. Strains and difficulties between countries appear solvable if the context is a healthy growing Europe, but are more dangerous if the group as a whole performs badly. In this article Christopher Allsopp and David Vines argue that the European Central Bank has a pivotal role. This is not just for the obvious reason, enshrined in the Treaty, that the independent Bank is charged with ensuring price stability. Beyond that, the ECB will necessarily be the main co-ordinating institution for macroeconomic policy. The single monetary authority interacts, for good or ill, with eleven national governments, eleven fiscal authorities and eleven national labour markets. The game is rigged in an unfamiliar way.     

内蒙古财政支出结构的分析及其对经济增长影响的研究

对财政支出结构的研究是当前我国的一个热门课题,它既可以帮助财政支出目标的实现,又可以考察财政支出结构是否促进经济增长。文章首先对财政支出的相关指标测算内蒙古财政支出的规模,其次根据财政支出职能划分内蒙古财政支出结构进行分析,然后应用回归模型分析内蒙古财政支出结构对经济增长的影响,最后根据以上分析的结论,提出优化内蒙古财政支出结构的相关建议。     

The Impact of Shocks on the UK Economy in and Out of EMU

Entry to EMU at an inappropriate exchange rate could trigger a full-blown business cycle in the UK. Once inside EMU, the UK's response to a number of different economic shocks would change — partly because of the fixed exchange rate, and partly because of the common monetary policy. In particular, when an asymmetric shock occurs — one that hits the UK harder than other Eurozone economies — the UK response is generally likely to be more pronounced inside EMU than outside. We find that that result still applies even in a reformed EMU — one in which the ECB and the labour market are reformed to bring them closer to the Anglo–Saxon model.     

Sterling and the Euro

The question of whether and when sterling should join Economic and Monetary Union is likely to be one of the key battlegrounds in the next election campaign. In this article, Erik Britton and Scott Livermore argue that there is no clear economic case in favour of sterling's entry to EMU. However, if as the government asserts – the political will to join exists, steps could be taken now, adjusting the mix of macroeconomic policy, to ensure that convergence was likely shortly after the next election.     

外商直接投资、区域经济发展:财政分权下的研究

文章从财政分权、外商直接投资和经济发展的角度分析了中国东中西部三个区域经济发展问题,发现中国区域经济增长的不平衡性也体现在财政分权的政府效率和经济发展阶段的不平衡。认为东部经济正在结构调整,分权需要深化;中部经济需要调整,分权需要继续推进;西部则需要改变政府效率,提高财政支出水平,改善投资环境。     

经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入影响的实证分析

文章通过建立回归模型,分析经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入的影响。分析得出经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入有着显著影响,据此提出对策和建议。     

DESIGNING ECONOMIC INSTRUMENTS FOR THE ENVIRONMENT IN A DECENTRALIZED FISCAL SYSTEM

Abstract When external effects are important, markets will be inefficient, and economists have considered several broad classes of economic instruments to correct these inefficiencies. However, the standard economic analysis has tended to take the region, and the government, as a given; that is, this work has neglected important distinctions and interactions between the geographic scope of different pollutants, the enforcement authority of various levels of government, and the fiscal responsibilities of the various levels of government. It typically ignores the possibility that the externality may be created and addressed by local governments, and it does not consider the implications of decentralization for the design of economic instruments targeted at environmental problems. This paper examines the implications of decentralization for the design of corrective policies; that is, how does one design economic instruments in a decentralized fiscal system in which externalities exist at the local level and in which subnational governments have the power to provide local public services and to choose tax instruments that can both finance these expenditures and correct the market failures of externalities?     

The UK and European Monetary Union: Why we should not stand aside

Ahead of next year's IGC David Currie considers the case for European monetary Union. He argues overall that EMU is desirable, though political arguments dominate the economic ones, which are finely balanced. he also argues that the UK should participate if other member states proceed to EMU, because of the dangers of marginalisation in Europe and of reduced attractiveness as a location for inward investment.     

Forecasting the New York State economy: The coincident and leading indicators approach

Currently there are no reliable summary indicators of the economic and fiscal condition of states and localities. This deficiency has hampered the efforts of policy makers at the sub-national level to monitor changes in the economic environment and predict how those changes will impact the fiscal health of governments. This paper attempts to fill this analytical vacuum by providing summary indicators of economic and fiscal health for New York State. The models developed are based on the single-index methodology developed by Stock and Watson [(1991). A probability model of the coincident economic indicators. In K. Lahiri and G. H. Moore (eds.), Leading economic indicators: new approaches and forecasting records (pp. 63–85). New York: Cambridge University Press]. This approach allows us to date New York business cycles and compare local cyclical behavior with the nation as a whole. We develop a leading index of economic indicators which predicts future movements in the coincident indicator. The Stock and Watson approach is used to create a fiscal indicator which acts as a summary indicator of revenue performance for New York. In addition, we explore the ability of our economic indicator series to predict future changes in state revenues. We find that changes in the leading indicator series have significant predictive power in forecasting changes in our revenue index.     

经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入影响的实证分析

文章通过建立回归模型,分析经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入的影响。分析得出经济增长和产业结构对广西财政收入有着显著影响,据此提出对策和建议。