Cutting-edge technologies

National and international hot fusion policies have reached a policy nexus. Scientific and intellectual satisfaction is no longer sufficient to provide the motive force or the financial will needed to create viable commercial fusion. Yet market pull is still too weak to attract investors and commercial interests. Active and long-term public policy participation is the only solution. With much argument over the economic justification and strategic importance of on-going fusion research, this paper contributes to that debate with a discussion of fusion's progress, politico-economic importance and future development, with particular reference to current national and international activities. Technological problems of large-scale collaboration, actor roles and the rising strategic interests in these areas are highlighted, with a conclusion that such projects need to engage the public at a wider and broader level to help provide justification for their continued funding as well as heeding the lessons of previous large-scale international projects and avoiding national unilateralism.     

Cutting-edge technologies

In the past decade the development of renewable energy technology has moved from being a somewhat eccentric idea to a significant practical proposition. Indeed, full-scale commercial systems are now in operation in many parts of the world. for example the USA now has more than 1.5 GW of installed wind power capacity feeding into electricity grids, mainly in wind farms in California. This article presents a strategic analysis of renewable energy R&D in the UK.     

Cutting-edge technologies

Low llevel radioactive wastes are generated from reactor sources as well as fsrom non-reactor sources. In recent years, about 50,000 m³ per year of such wastes have been generated in the USA and about 10,000 m³ per year in Canada. Direct disposal of these wasters in shallow ground has been a favoured method in both countries in the past. However, with recent advances in waste management. technologies are being applied to achieve optimum goals in terms of protection of human health and safety and the environment, as well as cost-effectiveness. These technologies must be applied from the generation sources through waste minimization and optimum segregation-followed by waste processing, conditioning, storage, and disposal. A number of technologies are available and can be applied as appropriate, given the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of the waste. Interim and retrievable storage can be accomplished in a wide variety of storage structures, and several types of engineered disposal facility designs are now available. By applying an integrated approach to radioactive waste management. potential advers impacts on human health and safety and the environment can be minimized.     

Cutting-edge technologies

Low llevel radioactive wastes are generated from reactor sources as well as fsrom non-reactor sources. In recent years, about 50,000 m³ per year of such wastes have been generated in the USA and about 10,000 m³ per year in Canada. Direct disposal of these wasters in shallow ground has been a favoured method in both countries in the past. However, with recent advances in waste management. technologies are being applied to achieve optimum goals in terms of protection of human health and safety and the environment, as well as cost-effectiveness. These technologies must be applied from the generation sources through waste minimization and optimum segregation-followed by waste processing, conditioning, storage, and disposal. A number of technologies are available and can be applied as appropriate, given the physical, chemical, and radiological characteristics of the waste. Interim and retrievable storage can be accomplished in a wide variety of storage structures, and several types of engineered disposal facility designs are now available. By applying an integrated approach to radioactive waste management. potential advers impacts on human health and safety and the environment can be minimized.     

Cutting-edge technology

In recent years there has been a growing belief that materials constitute a generic technology of revolutionary significance, ranking alongside information techno- logy and biotechnology. Our main aim is to examine the plausibility of this claim. In so doing we indicate what is distinctive about changes i n materials science and technology, and report on recent forecasts of potential change. Our second aim is briefly to discuss corporate and public policy on materials innovation i n a number of advanced countries. We present some preliminary jindings from interviews conducted with prominent UK materials producers and users. We conclude that there have been some important incremental and radical innovations i n materials technology. But because the diffusion of innovative materials and processes into different industry sectors and products has been uneven, i n terns of their current and likely future impact on the economy as a whole these changes cannot yet be described as revolutionary. The future impact of materials technology will depend not just on the materials innovation strategies of companies and governments, but on their ability to overcome users' conservatism and to convince them of the design and quality improvements that are possible.     

Cutting-edge technology

In recent years there has been a growing belief that materials constitute a generic technology of revolutionary significance, ranking alongside information techno- logy and biotechnology. Our main aim is to examine the plausibility of this claim. In so doing we indicate what is distinctive about changes i n materials science and technology, and report on recent forecasts of potential change. Our second aim is briefly to discuss corporate and public policy on materials innovation i n a number of advanced countries. We present some preliminary jindings from interviews conducted with prominent UK materials producers and users. We conclude that there have been some important incremental and radical innovations i n materials technology. But because the diffusion of innovative materials and processes into different industry sectors and products has been uneven, i n terns of their current and likely future impact on the economy as a whole these changes cannot yet be described as revolutionary. The future impact of materials technology will depend not just on the materials innovation strategies of companies and governments, but on their ability to overcome users' conservatism and to convince them of the design and quality improvements that are possible.     

Asymmetric technologies in contests

I consider a contest between two risk-neutral players over a common-value prize, in which one player has a linear cost-of-effort function and the other a strictly convex cost-of-effort function f. I show that if the value of the prize is above (below) a certain threshold level, then the equilibrium aggregate effort in this contest is larger (smaller) than in a contest in which both players are characterized by the strictly convex cost-of-effort function f, and smaller (larger) than in a contest in which both players are characterized by a linear cost-of-effort function. Therefore, in contrast to the general result in the literature, asymmetry in contests can increase competition.     

Equilibrium with nonconvex technologies

Summary We provide an elementary proof of the existence of equilibrium in a general equilibrium model allowing for non-convex production sets. It is shown that when firms follow upper hemicontinuous and convex-valued pricing rules with bounded losses, a price vector and an allocation exist, such that all agents are in equilibrium and all markets clear.The existence result presented in this paper is a particular case of that one in Bonnisseau & Cornet (1988, Th. 2.1). In this respect our contribution consists of presenting an alternative proof which turns-out to be simpler and more intuitive.Thanks are due to Carmen Herrero and two anonymous referees for very helpful comments. Financial support from theDirection General de Investigación Cientiflca y Ténica, under project PS89–0066, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Developing post-normal technologies for sustainability

The last two decades have seen the development of an array of techniques and practices aimed at promoting sustainability. For many, results have been disappointing. There are charges that supposedly new organisational approaches remain embedded in managerialist, functionalist and anti-dialogic frameworks that are a significant part of the problem. Similarly the technocratic scientization of public policy is viewed as ill-equipped to deal with the social, economic and ecological issues currently facing neo-liberal societies. In this paper we seek to interpret these frustrations and identify pathways that move beyond this. Specifically, we argue that the gap between sustainability rhetoric and sustainability practices can be reconceptualised through the practice of science as post-normal and through developing the notion of post-normal sustainability technologies (PNSTs). The exponents of post-normal science show why stakeholder engagement in sustainability (and other scientific) issues is critical for the legitimacy and quality of decisions and the admission of complexity in decision-making and accountability processes. Building on this now well-established foundation we seek to characterise, and give examples of, PNSTs as tools for achieving this participation; wherein stakeholders assume expertise and interact with those possessing more traditional forms of expertise in order to co-produce knowledge about sustainability. Recognition of ideological and value diversity is also central to the post-normal sustainability agenda and with PNSTs, the values-based nature of the issues involved is articulated in a way that seeks to bring politics openly into the picture. To this end we identify processes that are emerging in the literature and in practice that will enable PNSTs. These include extended peer communities and multi-actor heuristics, agonistic processes and new characterisations of citizenship that support moves to sustainability. In so doing, we believe that PNSTs offer “clumsy solutions” for “wicked problems” that can be engaged with in both the research and practice arenas as significant contributions to addressing urgent needs.     

Cost sharing with multiple technologies

We study cost sharing problems where gains from cooperation can come from the presence of other agents, such as when agents share their technologies. A simple model is built, where economies of scale are eliminated in order to study this effect. We use as the key axiom the property that, if an agent does not improve the technology of any coalition he joins, he should not get any part of the gain from cooperation. With properties of linearity and symmetry, this axiom characterizes a well-defined set of rules. From this set, we propose a rule derived from the familiar Shapley value. We show that it is the only rule in that set satisfying an upper-limit property on individual cost allocations or a monotonicity property when technology improves. We also derive a distinct rule using a property that ensures that no coalition has an incentive to manipulate the individual demands of its members.     

Strategic debt with multi-task technologies

In this paper it is shown that when employees have ex post bargaining power, the entrepreneur will try to avoid technologies that are based on a large number of complementary tasks. We demonstrate that the entrepreneur can shelter profit from the employees' rent-seeking behaviour by raising debt. Moreover, the strategic use of debt financing can favour the adoption of technologies that rely on synergies. JEL Classification: G31, J30, L20
Dette stratégique en présence de technologies impliquant plusieurs tâches. Ce mémoire montre que quand les employés ont un pouvoir de négociation ex post, l'entrepreneur va tenter d'éviter les technologies qui sont basées sur un grand nombre de tâches complémentaires. On montre que l'entrepreneur peut protéger ses profits des activités de chasse aux rentes des employés en accroissant sa dette. De plus, l'utilisation stratégique du financement par la dette peut favoriser l'adoption de technologies qui dépendent de synergies.     

Cost sharing with multiple technologies

We study cost sharing problems where gains from cooperation can come from the presence of other agents, such as when agents share their technologies. A simple model is built, where economies of scale are eliminated in order to study this effect. We use as the key axiom the property that, if an agent does not improve the technology of any coalition he joins, he should not get any part of the gain from cooperation. With properties of linearity and symmetry, this axiom characterizes a well-defined set of rules. From this set, we propose a rule derived from the familiar Shapley value. We show that it is the only rule in that set satisfying an upper-limit property on individual cost allocations or a monotonicity property when technology improves. We also derive a distinct rule using a property that ensures that no coalition has an incentive to manipulate the individual demands of its members.     

Tailoring CTA for emerging technologies

Technology assessment (TA) has developed into a method that puts a strong emphasis on facilitating interfaces between supply of science and technology and the demand for useful applications. Recently, we also see that TA becomes an integral part of science and technology programs, for instance in nanotechnology. The basic aim of the latter is to articulate the needs, wishes, and constraints, for example from professional users, already in the emerging stage of technological development. TA methods come in many different forms, although they are often different versions of a limited set of ‘basic approaches’ adapted to specific conditions with the overall aim to improve societal embedding. The thrust of this paper lies in the development and results of a variant of constructive TA (CTA), addressing technological development in an early phase in order to bypass the Collingridge dilemma by developing and testing scenarios including options for the further development of emerging technologies.How to support a broad selection of relevant actors effectively with CTA in such a way that they are enabled to play their role in innovation processes of emerging technologies? This is the main research question taken up in this paper. To take on this challenge we develop, apply, and evaluate an intervention we named the 3-step constructive technology assessment (CTA) approach. We will apply the approach to a nanotechnology related topic, Lab-on-a-chip technology. By assessing the effects and evaluating the proposed approach, we also want to contribute to the development of new methodological insights relevant for the TA community.     

Endogenous regional agricultural production technologies

Technical relationships between six productive factors for ten agricultural produvction regions in the continental United States are examined. The applied methodology provides a departure from conventional production methodologies contained in the literature by allowing aggregate technical relationships to be endogenized within the economic system.     

Asymmetric contests with general technologies

Summary. We investigate the pure-strategy Nash equilibria of asymmetric, winner-take-all, imperfectly discriminating contests, focussing on existence, uniqueness and rent dissipation. When the contest success function is determined by a production function with decreasing returns for each contestant, there is a unique pure-strategy equilibrium. If marginal product is also bounded, limiting total expenditure is equal to the value of the prize in large contests even if contestants differ. Partial dissipation occurs only when infinite marginal products are permitted. Our analysis relies heavily on the use of share functions and we discuss their theory and application.Received: 28 May 2003, Revised: 26 April 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D72. Correspondence to: Richard CornesMuch of the research in this paper was undertaken while the first author was a Visiting Scholar at the Centre for Economic Studies, University of Munich. The support of the Centre is gratefully acknowledged.     

Comparative statics for state-contingent technologies

The implications of supermodularity conditions in comparative-static analysis are analyzed for a generalized version of the separable-effort representation of a firm facing stochastic prices and a stochastic technology. Previous analysis is generalized in two ways. General risk-averse, as opposed to expected-utility, preferences are considered. The stochastic technology is represented by an Arrow–Debreu state-space representation. It is shown that results familiar from the theory of the price-taking firm in the absence of risk generalize to the uncertain case.      

Evaluating innovation networks in emerging technologies

Interorganisational innovation networks are increasingly important for innovation in emerging technology fields. The performance of such networks can have a large impact on the future development of emerging technologies. A useful framework for the evaluation of innovation networks however does not yet exist. In this paper, such a framework is developed, using elements of the social network analysis literature and the resource-based view. This framework is subsequently applied to compare two policy-driven innovation networks: 1) the Center for Translational Molecular Medicine; and 2) the BioMedical Materials program. Based on this first empirical exploration of the framework implications for management and further policy development are formulated.     

Exploring the market for breakthrough technologies

In this article, the gap between futures research (long term) and market research (short term) is closed in two ways. Firstly, by describing methods of market exploration that can be used earlier on in the process of development and diffusion of breakthrough technologies, so market research can be applied along with futures research. Secondly, the gap is closed by actually combining futures research and market research. We start the article from the perspective of the market research discipline and describe the problems in market research that require new approaches. The validity of market research results is often low when breakthrough technologies enter the market. To investigate this problem, assumptions for valid market research results are presented. In some cases, when breakthrough technologies first enter the market, these assumptions do not hold and market research becomes problematic whereas in other cases customers' needs and preferences are not an issue at all and attention focuses on technological issues. Potential solutions to explore the market in the former cases are suggested. Four approaches are distinguished: (1) adapting existing methods; (2) combining consumer research with market structure analysis or futures research; (3) using theoretic models; and (4) probe and learn approaches. These approaches require different subsets of assumptions and are therefore applicable in different situations.     

The death knells of mature technologies

The oscillatory behavior in the mature phase of some technologies' diffusion-related S curves are investigated, specifically with regard to the influences that other technologies can have on the oscillations. The notion of mortality indicators is raised, that is, whether such behavior is a signal that the mature technology is under attack from an emerging technology. The case of structural panels in the wood products industry is considered as an example, and an updated forecast of the substitution of oriented strand board for plywood is made. It is concluded that factors such as macroeconomic business cycles are primarily responsible for the oscillations in plywood's S-curve, although it is argued that an emerging technology can also contribute to perturbations in a mature technology's S-curve. Two possible alternative explanations for the oscillatory behavior are also discussed, a previously proposed chaos formulation, and a mathematical model based on modified Lotka-Volterra equations. This model shows that the oscillatory behavior in mature technologies' S-curves can also result from symbiotic interaction between two technologies under certain circumstances.     

Arenas of expectations for hydrogen technologies

Technological development is often described as an evolutionary process of variation, selection and retention. Different technologies are seen as variations, while the market and other institutions operate as a selection environment. It is less understood, however, how variation and selection relate in the case of emerging technologies. In this paper we introduce the concept of arenas of expectations to examine the relationship between variation and selection processes. Expectations are of particular interest in a pre-market phase of innovation, when performance, cost and other market criteria are less articulated and not stable. In arenas of expectations ‘enactors’ of particular technological variations voice and maintain expectations, while ‘selectors’ will compare and assess the competing claims. We analyse the expectations work of both parties in a case study on metal hydrides for the on-board storage of hydrogen for automotive applications. The paper concludes with a framework of ‘arenas of expectations’ as the linchpin between the processes of variation and selection of emerging technologies.