Modelling the impacts of policy on entry into organic farming: Evidence from Danish–UK comparisons, 1989–2007

This paper analyses organic farming entry decisions using a piece-wise linear depiction of policy. Our goal is to ascertain, from the available but limited information, whether Danish and UK policy measures toward organic agriculture have affected participation. Despite considerable interest in the growth of organic farming there has been little systematic analysis of it, although it is commonly believed that enhanced income levels have played a part. Whilst analyses of organic farming policy have provided extensive reviews of instruments applied, generally speaking, the spirit of those enquiries takes as datum that organic policies have had the desired impacts. Yet such conjectures remain mostly untested. Hence, there is a need to examine systematically if there exist relationships between the introduction of organic farming policies and the growth of organic farming, and whether particular policy measures are more effective than others. Here, we take a first step in this endeavor by undertaking an econometric analysis of the relationship between 14 organic farming policy measures and participation rates in Denmark and the UK during 1989–2007. Using two response variables – the numbers of farmers converted to organic production and the total land area under organic practice – we implement a simple, Bayesian methodology and evaluate the stepwise-linear impacts of policy. Extensions for future work are discussed. Six policy measures in the two study countries were found to be significant influences on participation, five of them direct supply-side instruments. For the UK, all of the policies are annual subsidies for organic farmers once conversion was complete. For Denmark, the policies are the introduction of organic subsidies for non-dairy farms, the extension of subsidies beyond 1997 and support for the costs of marketing services.     

Determinants, differentiation, and development of short-term marginal costs in dairy production: an empirical analysis for selected regions of the EU

This work provides evidence on the determinants, cost differentiation, and development of short‐term marginal costs of dairy farms in important production regions of the European Union. The empirical study is based on the estimation of multi‐input multi‐output Symmetric Generalized McFadden cost functions using an unbalanced panel data set of the European Farm Accountancy Data Network. The results show considerable regional differences in the impact of the outputs, input prices, and fixed factors on marginal costs. Strong evidence can be found that marginal costs decrease over time and is further underlined by the development of derived regional aggregated short‐term supply curves. Marginal cost elasticities and correlation coefficients validate the hypotheses that a high degree of farm specialization, large milk output, and low milk prices are associated with lower marginal costs. Furthermore, the marginal cost spread in the data sample is analyzed. We show that milk output, milk yield, herd size, labor input, and fodder production can be attributed to significant marginal cost differentiation of farms, whereas for crop and animal output, grassland, stock of other animals, and depreciation only minor differentiation can be found.     

A speculative bubble in commodity futures prices? Cross‐sectional evidence

Recent accusations against speculators in general and long-only commodity index funds in particular include: increasing market volatility, distorting historical price relationships, and fueling a rapid increase and decrease in the level of commodity prices. Some researchers have argued that these market participants—through their impact on market prices—may have inadvertently prevented the efficient distribution of food aid to deserving groups. Certainly, this result—if substantiated—would counter the classical argument that speculators make prices more efficient and thus improve the economic efficiency of the food marketing system. Given the very important policy implications, it is crucial to develop a more thorough understanding of long-only index funds and their potential market impact. Here, we review the criticisms (and rebuttals) levied against (and for) commodity index funds in recent U.S. Congressional testimonies. Then, additional empirical evidence is added regarding cross-sectional market returns and the relative levels of long-only index fund participation in 12 commodity futures markets. The empirical results provide scant evidence that long-only index funds impact returns across commodity futures markets.     

Estimation of time-varying price elasticity in 1970–1997 Japanese raw milk supply by structural time-series model

The price elasticity of raw milk supply in Japan is estimated over time by a structural time-series model in state space form, and the changes in elasticity are tested by the diagnosing test of de John and Penzer in 1998. The supply function is modeled with a local linear trend and a strictly exogenous autoregressive distributed lag price. The seasonality in the data is adjusted by a structural time-series model. In the 1970–1997 period, there were major dairy policy changes in Japan: a production adjustment, related penalties, and two-tier pricing. Hokkaido is the region that mainly provides the supply of raw milk for milk products, while Tofuken is the region that mainly produces drinking milk. The estimated price elasticity in Hokkaido became stable after imposition of the production adjustment. On the other hand, price elasticity in Tofuken became stable after the inflation of the mid-1970s. Price elasticity is estimated to be more inelastic as well as more likely to converge in inelasticity in Hokkaido than in Tofuken. We discuss the relationship between changes in dairy policy and changes in price elasticity.     

Spatial dependence in agricultural land prices: does it exist?

Trade-offs arise between spatial dependence and choice of functional form in agricultural land price hedonic models. We discuss these trade-offs and how they can create spurious spatial dependence. Using a land sales dataset with apparent spatial dependence, we implement a semiparametric approach avoiding potential problems with the functional form. The results show that in addition to being nonlinear, the impacts are also characterized by significance thresholds that are difficult to capture in a parametric model. More importantly, we fail to detect any spatial dependence demonstrating that inappropriate functional form can indeed be responsible for finding spatial dependence in hedonic models.