Analysis of failure time using threshold regression with semi‐parametric varying coefficients

Many new statistical models may enjoy better interpretability and numerical stability than traditional models in survival data analysis. Specifically, the threshold regression (TR) technique based on the inverse Gaussian distribution is a useful alternative to the Cox proportional hazards model to analyse lifetime data. In this article we consider a semi‐parametric modelling approach for TR and contribute implementational and theoretical details for model fitting and statistical inferences. Extensive simulations are carried out to examine the finite sample performance of the parametric and non‐parametric estimates. A real example is analysed to illustrate our methods, along with a careful diagnosis of model assumptions.     

构建基于VBA的PowerPoint随机指派系统

课堂提问是教学过程重要一环,通过师生问答互动,教师可以了解学生的接受程度,同时也鼓励学生积极思考。但现状是,教师经常面对学生遇见提问就低头的尴尬境地。针对在大学课堂教学过程中教师提问所面临的学生“集体沉默”这个普遍现象,文中利用VBA在PowerPoint中实现了一个随机指派系统,通过该系统随机指定回答问题的学生,提高了学生思考问题的积极性,活跃了课堂气氛。     

应用型本科院校《现代物流学》课程教学改革研究

在应用型本科教育的背景下,《现代物流学》的教学需要在一定理论知识的基础上,从多方面来锻炼学生的应用能力、实践能力等综合能力。基于此,从教学方法、教学组织、教学条件、实践教学环节、教学资源以及课程考核等方面系统地对《现代物流学》课程提出教学改革的建议。     

Language and interaction: applying sociolinguistics to social network analysis

Quality & Quantity - In recent years social network analysis, influenced by relational sociology, has taken a cultural turn. One result has been a growing interest in...     

Different algorithms,different models

Quality & Quantity - This study assesses the extent to which the two main Configurational Comparative Methods (CCMs), i.e. Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) and...     

The impact of desirability and feasibility on entrepreneurial intentions: A structural equation model

There is general agreement that attitudes towards entrepreneurship are determinant factors to decide to be an entrepreneur. In this context, this research is focused on analyzing the relationship between desirability and feasibility on university student’s intentions to create a new firm in Catalonia. A structural equation model supported by Krueger & Brazeal’s Model was tested with different groups of students. The main results reveal most of university students consider desirable to create a new firm, although the perception of feasibility is not positive. Also, there is a statistical significant and positively relationship between credibility and the intention to create a new firm.

Tourism competitiveness of Italian municipalities

Quality & Quantity - The purpose of the paper is the study of tourism competitiveness and its determinants for the almost 8000 Italian municipalities. The partial least squares method...     

Organizational attractiveness in Japan:a screening perspective

This study examines the effects of several organizational characteristics on job applicant attributions of organizational attractiveness in Japan. The results from 11,060 Japanese university students, 3,678 seniors specializing in engineering&science who judged 156 firms and 7,382 seniors majoring in liberal arts who evaluated 150 firms, demonstrate that some of the organizational characteristics studied do serve as organizational attractiveness screening devices (Stiglitz, 1975). First, work-force size was related to organizational attractiveness for both student cohorts, as hypothesized. On the contrary, the age of the organization had no effect on organizational attractiveness for either group. The effects for two other variables, sales and profits, were mixed. Sales was related to organizational attractiveness for the engineering&science cohort, but not for the liberal arts cohort. Alternatively, profits were associated with organizational attractiveness for the liberal art students, but not the engineering&science students.     

Differences in Roma and non-Roma students’ ratings of their peers’ popularity: an inquiry into the oppositional culture in Hungarian schools with the use of a survey experiment

Quality & Quantity - Oppositional culture theory posits that students who belong to oppressed ethnic minority groups define their ethnic identity in opposition to the majority of students....     

Least-squares forecast averaging

This paper proposes forecast combination based on the method of Mallows Model Averaging (MMA). The method selects forecast weights by minimizing a Mallows criterion. This criterion is an asymptotically unbiased estimate of both the in-sample mean-squared error (MSE) and the out-of-sample one-step-ahead mean-squared forecast error (MSFE). Furthermore, the MMA weights are asymptotically mean-square optimal in the absence of time-series dependence. We show how to compute MMA weights in forecasting settings, and investigate the performance of the method in simple but illustrative simulation environments. We find that the MMA forecasts have low MSFE and have much lower maximum regret than other feasible forecasting methods, including equal weighting, BIC selection, weighted BIC, AIC selection, weighted AIC, Bates–Granger combination, predictive least squares, and Granger–Ramanathan combination.     

Modern American Populism: Analyzing the Economics Behind the “Silent Majority,” the Tea Party,and Trumpism

Modern American populism (MAP) was born out of the political upheaval of the civil rights movement of the 1960s. The article examines the causes of populism. Economic anxiety is found to be the main cause, but there is also evidence supporting an alternative theory that racial resentment is an important driving force behind populism. The article analyzes the role of populism in the 1972 election of Richard Nixon, the Tea Party election of 2010, and the 2016 election of Donald Trump using data provided by the American National Election Studies (ANES). There is ample qualitative evidence that economic anxiety caused the populist voting patterns that elected Nixon, Tea Party candidates, and Trump. Statistical data supported the same conclusion in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the 1972 data were inconclusive. The data show that both economic anxiety and racial resentment played a role in the 2010 and 2016 elections, but the findings suggest that economic anxiety is the underlying factor that generates both racial resentment and support for populism.     

Students’ opinions on teaching and services provided by the Italian Universities: a proposal for a new evaluation scheme

Quality & Quantity - In Italy, the evaluation of the internal effectiveness of academic training courses has been substantiated, for over 20 years, in periodical surveys on...     

Reducing revisions in hedonic house price indices by the use of nowcasts

National Statistical Institutes (NSIs) must balance between timeliness and accuracy of the indicators they publish. Because some of the house sales transactions are reported several months after they occur, many countries that include Israel, publish provisional house price indices (HPIs) that are subject to large revisions as further transactions are reported. This happens because the late-reported transactions behave differently from the transactions reported on time. In this paper, we propose a novel methodology to minimize the size of the revisions, with illustrations from Israel, but the method can be applied to other countries with appropriate modifications. The proposed methodology consists of nowcasting three types of variables at a subdistrict level and adding them as input data to an extended hedonic model used for the computation of the HPI: (1) the average characteristics of the late-reported transactions such as the average number of rooms and the area size of the sold apartments; (2) the average price of the late-reported transactions; and (3) the number of late-reported transactions. The three variables are nowcasted based on models fitted to data from previous months. Evaluation of our methodology shows more than 50% reduction in the magnitude of the revisions.     

K-means clustering of item characteristic curves and item information curves via functional principal component analysis

Quality & Quantity - The assessment of students’ performances and learning skills plays a key role in the educational context. Common tools for analyzing test data are item response...     

Information criteria for impulse response function matching estimation of DSGE models

We propose new information criteria for impulse response function matching estimators (IRFMEs). These estimators yield sampling distributions of the structural parameters of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models by minimizing the distance between sample and theoretical impulse responses. First, we propose an information criterion to select only the responses that produce consistent estimates of the true but unknown structural parameters: the Valid Impulse Response Selection Criterion (VIRSC). The criterion is especially useful for mis-specified models. Second, we propose a criterion to select the impulse responses that are most informative about DSGE model parameters: the Relevant Impulse Response Selection Criterion (RIRSC). These criteria can be used in combination to select the subset of valid impulse response functions with minimal dimension that yields asymptotically efficient estimators. The criteria are general enough to apply to impulse responses estimated by VARs, local projections, and simulation methods. We show that the use of our criteria significantly affects estimates and inference about key parameters of two well-known new Keynesian DSGE models. Monte Carlo evidence indicates that the criteria yield gains in terms of finite sample bias as well as offering tests statistics whose behavior is better approximated by the first order asymptotic theory. Thus, our criteria improve existing methods used to implement IRFMEs.     

Congestion in the Chinese automobile and textile industries revisited

This paper re-examines a problem of congested inputs in the Chinese automobile and textile industries, which was identified by Cooper et al. [Cooper WW, Deng H, Gu B, Li S, Thrall RM. Using DEA to improve the management of congestion in Chinese industries (1981-1997). Socio-Economic Planning Sciences 2001;35:227-242]. Since these authors employed a single approach in measuring congestion, it is worth exploring whether alternative procedures would yield very different outcomes. Indeed, the measurement of congestion is an area where there has been much theoretical debate but relatively little empirical work. After examining the theoretical properties of the two main approaches currently available, those of Färe et al. [Färe R, Grosskopf S, Lovell CAK. The measurement of efficiency of production. Boston: Kluwer-Nijhoff; 1985] and Cooper et al., we use the data set assembled by Cooper et al. for the period 1981-1997 to compare and contrast the measurements of congestion generated by these alternative approaches. We find that the results are strikingly different, especially in terms of the amount of congestion identified. Finally, we discuss the new approach to measuring congestion proposed by Tone and Sahoo [Tone K, Sahoo BK. Degree of scale economies and congestion: a unified DEA approach. European Journal of Operational Research 2004;158:755-772].     

Causal inference in collaboration networks using propensity score methods

Quality & Quantity - Using panel data of school-class networks of 11–13-year-old students, this study investigates effects of schoolwork collaboration-networks on grades and...     

University training for entrepreneurial competencies: Its impact on intention of venture creation

This study tests the effect of entrepreneurship education programmes on the entrepreneurial competencies and intention of university students in order to confirm (or disconfirm) conventional wisdom that entrepreneurial education increases the intention to start a business. We address the following research question: Do entrepreneurship education programmes raise the entrepreneurial competencies and intention of students? We used a pretest-post-test quasi-experimental design. Data were collected from 864 university students of Castilla & León (Spain), from 863 students (403 taking the programme and 460 in a control group). The results showed that students in the ‘programme’ group increased their competencies and intention towards self-employment, whereas students in the control group did not. The findings contribute to the theories of planned behaviour and to the literature of entrepreneurship education itself, by revealing the effect of specific benefits for the students derived from the entrepreneurship ‘programme’.     

Estimating the multi-period efficiency of high-tech research institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: A dynamic slacks-based measure

Although a large amount of past research has studied the measurement of institutional research and development (R&D) efficiency, there has been limited dynamic empirical investigation of this topic. This study differs from previous studies in its consideration of R&D capital stock, which is defined as a carry-over activity between two consecutive periods. To further test high-tech institutes’ R&D performance in the pre-reform and post-reform periods, we evaluate a panel of 29 high-tech institutes of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) for 2011–2017 with a dynamic slacks-based measure. (a) The empirical value of the average overall efficiency is 0.5559, and the clustering analysis shows that institutes operating above the average overall efficiency level follow an increasing and then decreasing trend, while those operating below the average overall efficiency level follow a decreasing and then increasing trend. (b) The efficiency of low-performing institutes has increased from 0.2259 in the pre-reform period to 0.2727 in the post-reform period, which does not reflect the efficiency improvements of high-performing institutes. (c) High-tech institutes selected as pilot institutes have an average efficiency level of 0.6524, which is higher than that of non-pilot institutes (0.4765), indicating the benchmarking effect of pilots. (d) The types of pilot institutes can be ordered as follows: feature institutes > centres of excellence > innovative academies. (e) The total-factor input efficiency level has decreased in the post-reform period. Only the total-factor efficiency of high-quality papers has increased in the post-reform period (by 0.0094).     

高职物流专业学生顶岗实习的管理

物流是一门系统性、操作性很强的学科,学校必须让学生在较短的时间内掌握必需的理论知识和操作技能。湖北财税职业学院采取了多方位的学生定岗实习的管理措施,学生除在学校学习专业基础理论和技能还要进入企业直接顶岗实习,接受职业培训,提高职业技能。