基于客户选择的商业银行汽车信贷风险防范研究

以汽车贷款业务为例,在分析影响汽车贷款客户的个人信息特征基础上,构建Logistic回归模型对客户进行分级管理,以减少商业银行信贷风险。Logistic回归分析的结果表明:贷款人的综合情况由背景资料、贷款情况、财力情况、征信情况四个方面来衡量,其中财力情况更能体现贷款人的信息特征。模型的稳定性检验和返回检验表明该模型有效地区分了客户诚信与否,进而为管理者提供风险防范依据。     

现阶段商业银行汽车贷款保证保险问题分析--兼评保监会《关于规范汽车消费贷款保证保险业务有关问题的通知》

保监会《关于规范汽车消费贷款保证保险业务有关问题的通知》在贷款流程、除外责任、索赔顺序、承保期限等方面对银行汽车贷款产生了较大的影响。该《通知》将被保险人(银行)的实质性审查义务作为保证保险合同生效的要件值得商榷,也没有合理、公平地划分保险公司和银行之间的风险。对此,作者认为,商业银行在汽车消费贷款中不能过分依赖保证保险,积极探索汽车贷款风险防范的其他途径,巧妙利用保险公司的先索抗辩权并不包括汽车的其他财产险、偷盗险等险种的有利条件,注意区分汽车贷款诈骗的情况,严防保险公司对诈骗做扩大解释,从而有效防范和化解汽车贷款义务中存在的风险。     

中日汽车业财务竞争力评价与比较研究

企业财务竞争力是企业竞争力的最重要方面。随着我国汽车市场对外开放的不断加深,中国汽车工业的发展不仅面临着外资进入所产生的国际竞争国内化的压力,而且面临着在国际市场上与外国企业一较高下的竞争压力。在汽车制造技术和创新能力与日本等汽车制造强国存在差距的情况下,研究中日两国汽车业财务竞争力的差异就是本文研究的核心。本文通过构建定量财务指标,采用熵权法对两国汽车业的财务评价指标进行赋权,建立基于熵权法的中日汽车业财务竞争力评价模型,分析评价两国汽车业的财务竞争力,探索加强我国汽车业财务竞争力的具体措施。     

底特律的诱惑

通过人才引进,可以迅速获取人才及人才背后的研发技术,这是中国汽车企业学习美国汽车工业先进经验的捷径。     

对发展我国汽车金融服务市场的思考

我国现有的非银行金融机构,不具备专业办理汽车消费信贷的要求。为此,我国金融机构序列中应增加一类新的机构———汽车金融公司,专门办理汽车消费信贷业务。这对我国汽车产业的发展必定是一个极大的促进。为此,需要我们在发展汽车金融服务市场方面作深入地研究。     

我国车险业务经营绩效评价研究——以某财险公司湖南分公司为例

财产保险公司绝大部分业务来自于车险业务,因而车险业务的绩效关系到财险公司的经营业绩,甚至整个保险业的稳定和健康发展。从承保、理赔、续保及财务四个方面选取17个具体指标构建车险业务绩效评价指标体系进行有效性检验,计算某财险公司湖南分公司车险业务绩效水平指数,评价其车险业务经营状况。结果显示：该公司财务指标对车险业务影响的权重最大,综合车险指数呈上升趋势,表现出较好的经营状况。     

确立一体两翼的消费信贷发展战略研究

本课题提出了发展我国未来消费信贷的一体两翼策略。一体,就是保持个人住房贷款的主体地位,防范住房贷款的过度发展;两翼,就是要重点推动信用卡透支和汽车消费贷款的发展,培育其作为消费贷款新的增长点。在政策导向上,主要是着力保持一体的平稳健康、重点推动两翼的快速增长:一是严格限制投资、投机性住房贷款,保持个人住房贷款的平稳健康发展;二是优化信用卡使用环境,大力发展信用卡透支业务;三是加强风险防范,推动汽车消费贷款稳步发展。     

车险费率市场化及国内财险公司的应对策略

＂十二五＂时期车险费率市场化改革可能在全国范围内推行,这将会对整个车险市场产生深远影响。国内财险公司应积极把握车险费率市场化政策机遇,采取创新产品服务、拓宽销售渠道、控制费用以及互利合作等策略,避免单纯的价格竞争,促进我国车险市场的健康有序发展。     

我国汽车消费贷款保证保险的绩效分析

发展汽车消费贷款保证保险是保险业积极促进国内汽车消费的一项重要举措.既能间接扩大内需,推动国民经济增长,又能帮助银行管理贷款违约风险.本文通过构建汽车消费贷款保证保险绩效模型,分析得出汽车消费贷款保证保险能间接提高购车人信用等级,并为保险公司寻找新的利润点和融资渠道.最后根据绩效分析有针对性地提出了政策建议.     

Quantifying search and switching costs in the US auto insurance industry

I estimate demand for auto insurance in the presence of two types of market frictions: search and switching costs. I develop an integrated utility‐maximizing model in which consumers decide over which and how many companies to search and from which company to purchase. My modelling approach rationalizes observed consideration sets as being the outcomes of consumers' search processes. I find search costs to range from $35 to $170 and average switching costs of $40. Search costs are the most important driver of customer retention and their elimination is the main lever to increase consumer welfare in the auto insurance industry.     

关于用汽车消费带动我国经济增长的几点思考

我国宏观经济运行近两三年一直处于供大于求、有效需求不足的状态。经济持续自发性收缩，经济增长缺乏长期动力。我们的当务之急就是确定新的经济增长点，打破经济的收缩性循环。各国经济发展的历史经验告诉我们，中国经济即将进入一个依赖私人轿车拉动经济增长的时期。长期以来，我国汽车工业的相对落后状况使得我国汽车市场及其汽车服务等相关行业的发展相对滞后。因此，具有极大发展空间的私人汽车消费，完全可以成为我国经济新的增长点。     

How Much Are Car Purchases Driven by Home Equity Withdrawal?

Previous research indicates that changes in housing wealth affect consumer spending on cars. We find that home equity extraction plays only a small role in this relationship. Consumers rarely use funds from equity extraction to purchase a car directly, even during the mid‐2000s’ housing boom; this finding holds across three nationally representative household surveys. We find in credit bureau data that equity extraction does lead to a statistically significant increase in auto loan originations, consistent with equity extraction easing borrowing constraints in the auto loan market. This channel, though, accounts for only a tiny share of overall car purchases.     

EXPENSE RATIOS ACROSS INSURANCE DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: AN ANALYSIS BY LINE OF BUSINESS

Abstract: The author examines whether independent agency insurers are more expensive to operate than direct writers in personal auto insurance, workers compensation, or general liability.     

戴姆勒逆市投资中国

在金融危机蔓延．全球车市萎缩的非常时期，戴姆勒与福田汽车的合资给人逆市飘红的冲击。     

Production targets

We analyze a dynamic model of quantity competition, where firms continuously adjust their quantity targets, but incur convex adjustment costs when they do so. Quantity targets serve as a partial commitment device and, in equilibrium, follow a hump‐shaped pattern. The final equilibrium is more competitive than in the static analog. We then use data on monthly production targets of the Big Three U.S. auto manufacturers and show a similar empirical hump‐shaped dynamic pattern. Taken together, this suggests that strategic considerations may play a role in setting auto production schedules, and that static models may misestimate the industry's competitiveness.     

汽车零部件贸易:解决争端的中国式“气量”

对于中国汽车零部件企业而言,最大的挑战不是关税政策,而是来自国内外资企业的竞争。     

Collateral Value and Strategic Default: Evidence from Auto Loans

Journal of Financial Services Research - I study the impact of changes to collateral value on borrowers’ default decisions on auto loans using two natural experiments in Sri Lanka. Changes in...     

Medicaid coverage expansions and liability insurance

Do changes in the population covered by health insurance affect liability insurers, who compensate billions of dollars in medical claims each year? We examine this question by exploiting the selective rollout across states of Medicaid expansions under the Affordable Care Act. Using data on insurer losses across a range of insurance lines, and employing a triple‐difference research design that contrasts states, years, and lines of insurance, we demonstrate that coverage expansions reduce auto liability and workers’ compensation outlays by 6–11 percent, but do not measurably impact other lines of insurance. Our analysis provides some of the first evidence regarding the use of the tort system particularized to the low‐income population and is the first to consider the impacts of health insurance on medical professional liability and commercial auto insurance claims.     

大北汽的财务四驱

在国内汽车业进入搏杀激烈的成熟期后,身为CFO的马传骐希望能凭借精明的收购策略和务实的财务管理能力带给北汽集团这一国内第五大汽车巨头强劲的爬坡动力。     

Modelling default contagion using multivariate phase-type distributions

We model dynamic credit portfolio dependence by using default contagion in an intensity-based framework. Two different portfolios (with ten obligors), one in the European auto sector, the other in the European financial sector, are calibrated against their market CDS spreads and the corresponding CDS-correlations. After the calibration, which are perfect for the banking portfolio, and good for the auto case, we study several quantities of importance in active credit portfolio management. For example, implied multivariate default and survival distributions, multivariate conditional survival distributions, implied default correlations, expected default times and expected ordered default times. The default contagion is modelled by letting individual intensities jump when other defaults occur, but be constant between defaults. This model is translated into a Markov jump process, a so called multivariate phase-type distribution, which represents the default status in the credit portfolio. Matrix-analytic methods are then used to derive expressions for the quantities studied in the calibrated portfolios.