Multivariate GARCH hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness in Australian futures markets

We use the All Ordinaries Index and the corresponding Share Price Index futures contract written against the All Ordinaries Index to estimate optimal hedge ratios, adopting several specifications: an ordinary least squares‐based model, a vector autoregression, a vector error‐correction model and a diagonal‐vec multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity model. Hedging effectiveness is measured using a risk‐return comparison and a utility maximization method. We find that time‐varying generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratios perform better than constant hedge ratios in terms of minimizing risks, but when return effects are also considered, the utility‐based measure prefers the ordinary least squares method in the in‐sample hedge, whilst both approaches favour the conditional time‐varying multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity hedge ratio estimates in out‐of‐sample analyses.     

Short-run deviations and time-varying hedge ratios: Evidence from agricultural futures markets

This paper investigates the hedging effectiveness of time-varying hedge ratios in the agricultural commodities futures markets using four different versions of the GARCH models. The GARCH models applied are the standard bivariate GARCH, the bivariate BEKK GARCH, the bivariate GARCH-X and the bivariate BEKK GARCH-X. Futures data for corn, coffee, wheat, sugar, soybeans, live cattle and hogs are applied. Comparison of the hedging effectiveness is done for the within sample period (1980–2004), and two out-of-sample periods (2002–2004 and 2003–2004). Results indicate superior performance of the portfolios based on the GARCH-X model estimated hedge ratio during all periods.     

Model-free hedge ratios and scale-invariant models

A price process is scale-invariant if and only if the returns distribution is independent of the price measurement scale. We show that most stochastic processes used for pricing options on financial assets have this property and that many models not previously recognised as scale-invariant are indeed so. We also prove that price hedge ratios for a wide class of contingent claims under a wide class of pricing models are model-free. In particular, previous results on model-free price hedge ratios of vanilla options based on scale-invariant models are extended to any contingent claim with homogeneous pay-off, including complex, path-dependent options. However, model-free hedge ratios only have the minimum variance property in scale-invariant stochastic volatility models when price–volatility correlation is zero. In other stochastic volatility models and in scale-invariant local volatility models, model-free hedge ratios are not minimum variance ratios and our empirical results demonstrate that they are less efficient than minimum variance hedge ratios.     

Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications

This paper studies the time series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the US dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict in-sample the payoffs of dynamically re-balanced carry trades, as evidenced by individual and joint p-values in monthly predictive regressions at horizons up to six months. Predictability is further supported through out-of-sample metrics, and a predictability-based decision rule produces sizable improvements in the Sharpe ratios and skewness profile of carry trade payoffs. Our evidence also indicates that predictability can be traced to the long legs of the carry trades and their currency components. We test the theoretical restrictions that an asset pricing model, with average currency returns and the mimicking portfolio for the innovations in currency volatility as risk factors, imposes on the coefficients in predictive regressions.     

Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry

This paper presents evidence on the relation between hedge fund returns and restrictions imposed by funds that limit the liquidity of fund investors. The excess returns of funds with lockup restrictions are approximately 4–7% per year higher than those of nonlockup funds. The average alpha of all funds is negative or insignificant after controlling for lockups and other share restrictions. Also, a negative relation is found between share restrictions and the liquidity of the fund's portfolio. This suggests that share restrictions allow funds to efficiently manage illiquid assets, and these benefits are captured by investors as a share illiquidity premium.     

Including commodity futures in asset allocation in China

In this paper, we investigate the role of eight commodity futures in asset allocation in China during the period January 2004–December 2015. The Chinese commodities and stocks are moderately correlated. We use quantile regressions based on a value-at-risk model to examine the relation between these two markets. We find no risk spillovers between the markets, suggesting that stocks and commodities in China are exposed to different risks. Using different asset allocation strategies, we show that including soymeal and soybeans in the Chinese stock index can offer some diversification gains. However, other Chinese commodities may not be useful for portfolio diversification.     

Common asset pricing factors in volatilities and returns in futures markets

Factor-based asset pricing models have been used to explain the common predictable variation in excess asset returns. This paper combines means with volatilities of returns in several futures markets to explain their common predictable variation. Using a latent variables methodology, tests do not reject a single factor model with a common time-varying factor loading. The single common factor accounts for up to 53% of the predictable variation in the volatilities and up to 14% of the predictable variation in the means. S&P500 futures volatility predicted by the factor model is highly correlated with volatility implied in S&P500 futures options. But both the factor and implied volatilities are significant in predicting future volatility. In derivatives pricing, both implied volatility from options and factors extracted from asset pricing models should be employed.     

Spot rates,forward rates and exchange market efficiency

This paper examines the relationship between forward exchange rates and subsequently observed spot rates. No evidence is found for a liquidity premium on forward exchange, indicating that the forward rate can be used as a proxy of the market's expectations and that open exchange positions involve little systematic risk. It is also shown that forward exhange is priced as if the exchange rate could be characterized by a diffusion process with a trend, although there is some evidence such a process does not adequately characterize the exchange rate in all cases.     

Optimal hedge ratio and hedging effectiveness of stock index futures: evidence from India

In a free capital mobile world with increased volatility, the need for an optimal hedge ratio and its effectiveness is warranted to design a better hedging strategy with future contracts. This study analyses four competing time series econometric models with daily data on NSE Stock Index Futures and S&P CNX Nifty Index. The effectiveness of the optimal hedge ratios is examined through the mean returns and the average variance reduction between the hedged and the unhedged positions for 1-, 5-, 10- and 20-day horizons. The results clearly show that the time-varying hedge ratio derived from the multivariate GARCH model has higher mean return and higher average variance reduction across hedged and unhedged positions. Even though not outperforming the GARCH model, the simple OLS-based strategy performs well at shorter time horizons. The potential use of this multivariate GARCH model cannot be sublined because of its estimation complexities. However, from a cost of computation point of view, one can equally consider the simple OLS strategy that performs well at the shorter time horizons.     

Risk appetite,carry trade and exchange rates

Using exchange rate data from four different countries (time zones), we examine the relationship between the Yen exchange rate against major currencies (i.e. USD/JPY, EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY) and measures of risk appetite (i.e. the S&P500 index, Dow Jones Industrial Average index and the VIX index). Our results show that the equity indexes, especially the Dow Jones Industrial Average, play a more important role in the determination of the Yen cross rates than VIX. The popular carry-trade currencies, i.e. NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY, are more affected by the US equity market than USD/JPY and EUR/JPY. While the long-term relationships are consistent across the four different time zones, the short-term dynamics are different. We find that the response of NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY and GBP/JPY to changes in the US stock market is much greater in the New Zealand and Australian zones than in the UK or US. Although the short-term relationship between exchange rates and the equity index is quite strong, the error correction speed is very sluggish. We also find evidence of asymmetric adjustment in the response of exchange rates to changes in global risk aversion. Carry trade currencies tend to appreciate gradually when conditions are favorable but fall sharply when market risk increases.     

Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates

We solve for optimal portfolios when interest rates and labor income are stochastic with the expected income growth being affine in the short-term interest rate in order to encompass business cycle variations in wages. Our calibration based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) data supports this relation with substantial variation across individuals in the slope of this affine function. The slope is crucial for the valuation and riskiness of human capital and for the optimal stock/bond/cash allocation both in an unconstrained complete market and in an incomplete market with liquidity and short-sales constraints.     

Beyond Sharpe ratio: Optimal asset allocation using different performance ratios

As the assumption of normality in return distributions is relaxed, classic Sharpe ratio and its descendants become questionable tools for constructing optimal portfolios. In order to overcome the problem, asymmetrical parameter-dependent performance ratios have been recently proposed in the literature. The aim of this note is to develop an integrated decision aid system for asset allocation based on a toolkit of eleven performance ratios. A multi-period portfolio optimization up covering a fixed horizon is set up: at first, bootstrapping of asset return distributions is assessed to recover all ratios calculations; at second, optimal rebalanced-weights are achieved; at third, optimal final wealth is simulated for each ratios. Eventually, we make a robustness test on the best performance ratios. Empirical simulations confirm the weakness in forecasting of Sharpe ratio, whereas asymmetrical parameter-dependent ratios, such as the Generalized Rachev, Sortino–Satchell and Farinelli–Tibiletti ratios show satisfactorily robustness.     

保险公司资产组合与最优投资比例研究

保险公司收益主要来源于承保利润和投资收益,其中承保利润受政策变动、市场条件等外部环境的影响较大,而投资收益则更多地取决于保险公司的投资能力,因此保险公司如何构建资产组合、如何确定最优投资比例就是获取投资收益最大化的重要因素。本文通过理论推导得出了保险公司的资产组合模型并运用非线性规划求解出最优投资比例,进而根据保险公司的投资数据进行了实证研究,为我国保险公司的资产组合及最优投资比例提供了一个可借鉴的思路。     

International asset allocation using the market implied cost of capital

The Black and Litterman (Financ Anal J 48(5):28–43, 1992) (BL) approach to portfolio optimization requires investor views on expected asset returns as an input. I demonstrate that the market implied cost of capital (ICC) is ideal for quantifying those views on a country level. I benchmark this approach against a BL optimization using time-series models as investor views, the equally weighted portfolio, and allocation methods based on stock market capitalization and GDP. I find that the ICC portfolio offers an increase in average return of 2.1 percentage points (yearly) as compared to the value-weighted portfolio, while having a similar standard deviation. The resulting difference in Sharpe ratios is statistically significant and robust to the inclusion of transaction costs, varying BL parameters, and a less strictly defined investment universe.     

Deposit interest rates, asset risk and bank failure in Croatia

Financial deregulation, while beneficial in the long-term, seems to be linked to instability. Intense competition for deposits appears to be an ingredient in instability. We examine the aftermath of deregulation in Croatia, which included rapid growth of both deposits and deposit interest rates, followed by numerous bank failures.

Using panel regression techniques, we find evidence of “market-stealing” via high deposit interest rates. We connect high deposit interest rates to bank failure using logit models. High deposit interest rates were a reliable signal of risk-taking. When supervisory capabilities and powers are weak, deposit interest rate regulation may be worth considering.     

Structural models of credit risk are useful: Evidence from hedge ratios on corporate bonds

Structural models of credit risk provide poor predictions of bond prices. We show that, despite this, they provide quite accurate predictions of the sensitivity of corporate bond returns to changes in the value of equity (hedge ratios). This is important since it suggests that the poor performance of structural models may have more to do with the influence of non-credit factors rather than their failure to capture the credit exposure of corporate debt. The main result of this paper is that even the simplest of the structural models [Merton, R., 1974. On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates. Journal of Finance 29, 449–470] produces hedge ratios that are not rejected in time-series tests. However, we find that the Merton model (with or without stochastic interest rates) does not capture the interest rate sensitivity of corporate debt, which is substantially lower than would be expected from conventional duration measures. The paper also shows that corporate bond prices are related to a number of market-wide factors such as the Fama-French SMB (small minus big) factor in a way that is not predicted by structural models.     

The equilibrium price of futures contracts: A result drawn from capital asset pricing model

A recent study shows that separation theorems in the stock and forward market literatures may not hold in an integrated financial market; therefore, the securities market may influence futures trading. This article investigates the securities market influence on the futures price. The result shows that although the futures price incorporates the investor's expectation about the future spot price, it generally is not a best estimate of the spot price. In addition, it is shown that the speculative activity can destabilize the cash market for some commodities, if initially, the underlying cash price is highly volatile.     

Spot and forward rates in the Canadian treasury bill market

The efficiency of the Canadian Treasury bill market is examined with data on spot and forward rates of return. Over the period from 7/62 to 3/79, the bill market has been efficient in the sense that it correctly uses the information contained in past spot rates in assessing the expected future spot rate and in determining the forward rate. Moreover, the forward rate is found to contain some information about future spot rates above and beyond that in past spot rates.     

An empirical investigation of asset pricing models under divergent lending and borrowing rates

Asset pricing theory implies that the estimate of the zero-beta rate should fall between divergent lending and borrowing rates. This paper proposes a formal test of this restriction using the difference between the prime loan rate and the 1-month Treasury bill rate as a proxy for the difference between borrowing and lending rates. Based on simulations, this paper shows that in the ordinary least squares case, the Fama and MacBeth (J Pol Econ 81:607–636, 1973) t-statistic has high power against a general alternative, which is not true of the Shanken (Rev Financ Stud 5:1–33, 1992) and Kan et al. (J Financ doi:10.1111/jofi.12035, 2013) t-statistics. In the generalized least squares case, all three t-statistics have high power. The empirical investigation highlights that only the intertemporal capital asset pricing model reasonably prices the zero-beta portfolio. Other models, such as the Fama and French (J Financ Econ 33:3–56, 1993) model, do not assign the correct value to the zero-beta rate.