The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

关于接受虚开发票行为的界定及立法完善分析

我国《刑法》及相关司法解释、发票管理办法等都明确地把接受虚开发票行为界定为虚开发票行为,司法机关也以此作为处理该类行为的依据。而这样的规定直接导致了理论界对有关虚开发票行为的理解发生长期的分歧与争论,也给行政执法实践和司法实践带来了一定的困惑,这样的立法存在诸多缺陷。其主要原因是我国的税收管理过分依赖于发票,导致有关发票的法律政策过于偏激。因此,解决这一问题的关键是尽快完善立法。     

《金融分布式账本技术安全规范》解读

2月5日,中国人民银行发布《金融分布式账本技术安全规范》,这是中国首个金融区块链标准规范。标准从基础软硬件、密码算法、节点通信、账本数据、共识协议、智能合约、身份管理、隐私保护、监管支撑、运维要求和治理机制等方面,对金融行业中所应用的分布式账本技术的安全体系做出了一系列的规定。     

《易经》的社会分工的经济思想

《易经》产生的年代,是中国社会变革最为剧烈的时代,此前,人类社会处于原始状态。原始社会是人类社会发展中经历的第一个社会制度,正是从这时起,人们开始使用生产工具。生产工具的出现是社会分工最重要的条件。由此,人们才得以观察社会,认识自然。尽管原始社会人们的生产工具极为简单、粗糙,甚至是石器,但是却形成了对社会改良最初的认识。研究《易经》的社会分工的经济思想具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

General theory of cost minimization strategies of continuous audit of databases

The minimization of cost is an important issue in the domain of continuous auditing (CA) research [Pathak Jagdish, Chaouch Ben, Sriram Ram, 2005. Minimizing cost of continuous audit: Counting and time dependent strategies. Journal of Accounting and Public Policy 24(1), 61–75]. This cited study of continuous audit of databases motivated us to work further and provide a general, complete and precise solution. In the present study, we propose an efficient algorithm in terms of long term cost for counting and periodic strategies of continuous auditing as suggested by Pathak et al. study. The improved algorithms contribute to accounting literature in general and continuous audit in particular in the form of general theory proposed for minimizing the cost of CA of databases.     

2011年中国玉米市场供需分析

2011年我国玉米供求形势复杂,本文首先分析了我国近十年的玉米种植产量和消费量的变化,结合我国国内玉米供求情况和国际玉米市场情况,对我国2011年玉米市场供需做了一个相对全面的分析:我国2011年玉米市场供不应求,市场价格会小波动范围逐渐上升.我国国内市场面临着较大的物价通胀压力,我国政府基本政策是稳定物价,为此出台了若干有力的措施.2011年我国玉米供给低于国际国内市场需求,玉米市场价格会在波动中逐渐上升,但不会大起大落,相对平稳.     

新农村建设中重建农民组织的几个问题

中国农村推行村民民主选举村委会二十几年并没有取得良好的治理绩效,原因之一是政治民主缺少社会自治的基础。当前,新农村建设中村民选举存在的问题、农民"主体"性缺失问题、农村公共事务无人管理问题、农民不能作为平等权利主体参与市场经济问题、农村行政成本畸高和"交易成本"问题等都凸显出重建农民组织的重要。因此,中国农村最需要的应该是在村庄一级发展农民组织,实行有效的自治。     

关于高校贷款证券化的前瞻性思考

高等教育对我国经济社会的可持续发展具有积极的推动作用.发展我国的高等教育事业需要资本市场的强力支持,而启动高校贷款证券化则可以拓宽我国高等教育融资的渠道并促进债券市场的发展.我国高校贷款证券化在起步阶段应以资产抵押证券这种结构形式为主,在发展阶段则以转付证券这种结构形式为主.目前我国实施高校贷款证券化还存在诸多的约束,政府需要采取一系列的配套措施来消除高校贷款证券化的制度和市场障碍以促进我国银校合作的进一步发展.     

我国区际民生类公共服务投入力度比较及均等化对策研究

公共服务均等化是公共财政的重要目标,是实现社会公平的基本尺度之一。实证研究证实近年来我国区际公共服务差异程度有所减小,表明财政投入对实现基本公共服务均等化发挥了重要作用,但仍需在制度建设等方面做出更大的努力。     

日本行政限制竞争行为法律规制问题研究

日本反垄断法中没有行政垄断的定义,但确有行政机关利用行政权力排除限制竞争的行为,日本的经济规制及其统制型经济模式是其行为产生的原因。日本行政限制竞争行为主要表现为行政指导的卡特尔和行政参与的串通招标投标行为。日本采用禁止私人垄断法和行政法路径对行政限制竞争行为进行规制。日本采取行政、民事、刑事责任立法来规制行政限制竞争行为。我国应坚持行政垄断规制专门立法的特设制度,借鉴日本规制行政垄断的经验,并加大对行政垄断的处罚力度。     

An Analysis of Countercyclical Policies of The FHLBB

Three policies of the Federal Home Loan Bank Board, the Specially Priced Advances Program in 1970–1, a program of advances at a reduced interest rate in 1974, and changes in the minimum liquidity ratio, are analyzed. A model of portfolio allocation is developed and estimated for savings and loan associations. Most of the net increase in advances borrowed under the first two programs have not been lent in the mortgage market. Reductions in the minimum liquidity requirement have resulted in an increase in mortgage lending, but substantial effects are not felt until a year after the liquidity requirement is reduced.     

转让定价税务管理中纳税人文档准备和举证责任规定的国际比较

世界各国和地区在转让定价文档准备和举证责任方面的法律规定基本上是依据OECD指南有关原则制定,并有各自特点。本文就这些内容进行了详细地理论探讨和国际比较,并将落脚点放在为我国转让定价税收立法工作提供有益的借鉴作用上。     

促进战略性新兴产业发展的风险投资策略研究

市场前景广阔的战略性新兴产业具有“高风险、高投入、高效益”等特点,不仅要求企业具有高水平的科技研发能力,还需要外部环境的支持,特别是需要充分的金融支持。应在政府相关政策和扶持基金的引导下,在良好的法制环境保障下,建立有中国特色的富有效率的风险投资综合支撑体系。只有这样,才能顺利实现风险投资和科技资源的对接,才能充分发挥风险投资在战略性新兴产业发展中的“先锋”作用,从而为培育和发展战略性新兴产业注入新鲜持久的活力。     

试论我国财税法律体系的完善

经济的和谐发展呼吁完善的财税法律体系。目前,我国传统财税法律体系已经不能适应和谐发展的新要求,以科学发展观为指导,创新财税法学研究方法和研究范式,构建新的财税法律体系和拓展财税法学的理论空间,已经成为财税理论研讨中的新趋势。因此,宜从我国财政危机的法律原因入手,分析产生这些问题的法治根源,并提出创新财税法治观念、构建新的财税法律体系的思路。     

Regionality revisited: An examination of the direction of spread of currency crises

What determines the direction of spread of currency crises? We examine data on waves of currency crises in 1992, 1994, 1997, and 1998 to evaluate several hypotheses on the determinants of contagion. We simultaneously consider trade competition, financial links, and institutional similarity to the “ground zero” country as potential drivers of contagion. To overcome data limitations and account for model uncertainty, we utilize Bayesian methodologies hitherto unused in the empirical literature on contagion. In particular, we use the Bayesian averaging of binary models that allows us to take into account the uncertainty regarding the appropriate set of regressors.We find that institutional similarity to the ground zero country plays an important role in determining the direction of contagion in all the emerging market currency crises in our dataset. We thus provide persuasive evidence in favour of the “wake-up call” hypothesis for financial contagion. Trade and financial links may also play a role in determining the direction of contagion, but their importance varies amongst the crisis periods.     

The Impact of Two Decades of Reform of British Public Sector Industrial Relations

The results of some 20 years of industrial relations reform in the British public sector are assessed, along with current trade union responses and future prospects for industrial relations in the public services. The author pinpoints limitations in the perspectives that have driven reform processes in labour practices, and in the outcomes achieved, and concludes that the process of convergence that is often assumed to have occurred between public and private sector industrial relations arrangements may be more apparent than real.