Accruals and firm life cycle: Improving regulatory earnings management detection

Regulators have invested considerable energy into developing analytical tools to better detect earnings management. We propose that firms in similar life cycle stages (LCSs) face similar strategic concerns, managerial pressures, growth prospects, etc., and that the commonality in these factors contribute to the “normal” accruals generating process. Consistent with this prediction, we simulate various earnings management conditions and find that accruals models are misspecified in detecting manipulation within particular LCSs; in particular, introduction, shakeout, and decline firms are over-identified as manipulators, while growth and mature firms are under-identified as manipulators when LCS is not used to estimate accruals. Weighted average performance across life cycle stages reveals that LCS estimation of discretionary accruals substantially improves successful detection and reduces Type I errors relative to other grouping alternatives. The combined improvement across both Type I and Type II errors is over 70% for both the modified Jones and discretionary revenue models of accruals-based earnings management.     

Firm life cycle and idiosyncratic volatility

This paper investigates the association between idiosyncratic volatility and firm life cycle stages. Since firm performance and availability of information vary across life cycle stages, and such variation affects uncertainty about future cash flows and stock returns, we argue that idiosyncratic volatility also varies across firm life cycle stages. Using US data, this study shows that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly higher in the introduction and decline stages, and significantly lower in the growth and mature stages, when compared to that in the shake-out stage. Our study also reveals that the roles of both cash flow volatility and information uncertainty in affecting idiosyncratic volatility vary depending on firm life cycle stages. Our results are robust to alternative specifications of life cycle proxies and idiosyncratic volatility, and to an alternative regression specification.     

Firm diversification and earnings management strategies: European evidence

This paper investigates whether corporate diversification, both international and industrial, provides a favourable environment for earnings management. We find that international diversification is associated with greater manipulation of accruals and sales but with lower manipulation of production costs. Industrial diversification is associated with lower levels of all three earnings management strategies. We find strong evidence that the combination of industrial and international diversification increases real activity manipulation but has no effect on accrual manipulation. Moreover, we find that in the presence of firm complexity linked to higher levels of earnings management, the recommendations of financial analysts are more likely to be on the sell side and vice versa. Our results provide useful insights to investors by highlighting the impact of corporate diversification on earnings management and, thus, the accurate estimation of firm value.     

Firm diversification and earnings management: evidence from seasoned equity offerings

Popular press suggests that diversified firms are more aggressive in managing earnings than non-diversified firms. We examine this claim in the seasoned equity offering (SEO) setting, where firms have been shown to have the incentive to manage earnings upwards. Using the cross-sectional modified Jones [(1991) J Accounting Res 29:193–228] model to measure discretionary current accruals, we find that discretionary current accruals are higher among diversified firms than in non-diversified ones. Our evidence is consistent with the view that the extent of firm diversification is directly related to the degree of earnings management. We further show that diversified issuers with high discretionary accruals underperformed other SEO firms.

Firm strategy and market reaction to earnings

We examine whether a firm's strategy affects the information content of the firm's earnings announcement. A cost leadership strategy is characterized by low sales margins coupled with large sales volumes, economies of scale and major investments in plant and physical assets, whereas a differentiation strategy involves high sales margins achieved through product quality and branding realized by investments in intangibles such as R&D and advertising. These characteristics of the strategies result in differential impact on investor reactions to new information that is revealed about firms. Our results show that firms pursuing a cost leadership strategy have earnings announcements that are more commonly interpreted and result in a greater change in the average belief about stock price. On the other hand, earnings announcements of firms pursuing a differentiation strategy result in more heterogeneous interpretation accompanied by a smaller change in the average belief about stock price. This paper advances our understanding of the cross-sectional variation in the market's reaction to earnings announcements. In addition, the paper demonstrates a predictable instance of divergence in the price reaction and trading volume reaction to an earnings announcement.     

Firm life cycle and debt maturity structure: evidence from China

This study examines the effect of firm life cycle on debt maturity structure (DMS) in China. We reveal that DMS is relatively low in the introduction and recession periods, while long‐term debt ratio of growth companies is high. Companies in booming industries need funds but have difficulty obtaining long‐term loans, whereas companies in recession can use more long‐term loans. The Chow test shows that DMS changed markedly before and after the new normal of China’s economy and the implementation of the ‘mass entrepreneurship and innovation campaign’. It is urgent to address sunset industries to improve the efficiency of resource allocation.     

Quarterly earnings guidance and real earnings management

We examine if quarterly earnings guidance induces real earnings management. Quarterly guidance may cause myopia and inefficient decision-making, if managers become overly concerned with setting and beating short-term earnings targets. We test these associations on a large sample of US firms. Our evidence suggests that quarterly guidance is informative and lowers myopic incentives. However, our analyses also reveal endogenous associations exist between guidance and real earnings management. In contrast with existing concerns over frequent guiders, we find that guidance appears problematic in infrequent guiders, and in firms that issue good news earnings guidance and that operate in settings where earnings pressures are high.     

Short-term earnings guidance and accrual-based earnings management

Motivated by recent practitioners’ concerns that short-term earnings guidance leads to managerial myopia, we investigate the impact of short-term earnings guidance on earnings management. Using a propensity-score matched control sample, we find strong and consistent evidence that the issuance of short-term quarterly earnings guidance is associated with less, rather than more, earnings management. We also find that regular guiders exhibit less earnings management than do less regular guiders. Our findings hold using both abnormal accruals and discretionary revenues to measure earnings management and after controlling for potential reverse causality concerns. Furthermore, in a setting where managers have particularly strong capital market incentives to manage earnings, we corroborate these findings by documenting that earnings guidance either has no impact on or mitigates earnings management. Overall, our evidence does not support the criticism from practitioners that short-term earnings guidance leads to more earnings management.     

Firm life cycle,corporate risk‐taking and investor sentiment

This study investigates the corporate risk‐taking and the performance consequences at different stages of the firm life cycle. We find that risk‐taking is higher in the introduction and decline stages of the life cycle, but lower in the growth and mature stages. We also find that risk‐taking during introduction and decline stage (growth and maturity stage) affects future performance adversely (positively). We also document that managerial risk‐taking propensities increase during periods of high investor sentiment and firms in different life cycle stages respond to sentiment differently. Collectively, these results suggest that the firm life cycle has explanatory power for corporate risk‐taking behaviour.     

Overvaluation and earnings management

Consistent with Jensen’s [Jensen, M., 2005. Agency costs of overvalued equity. Financial Management 34, 5–19] agency-costs-of-overvalued-equity prediction, we find that overvaluation is statistically and economically related to subsequent income-increasing earnings management. This relation is robust to a series of tests that address potential endogeneity concerns, including omitted variable bias and reverse causality. The agency costs of overvalued equity are substantial. Overvaluation-induced income-increasing earnings management is negatively related to future abnormal stock returns and operating performance, and this negative relation becomes more pronounced as prior overvaluation intensifies. Among the most overvalued firms, those with high discretionary accruals underperform those with low discretionary accruals during the following year by 11.88% as measured by the three-factor alphas, and by 12.87% points as measured by industry-adjusted unmanaged EBITDA-to-assets ratio.     

Firm valuation, abnormal earnings, and mutual funds flow

We examine the valuation effects of overall demand for corporate equities combined with the influence of abnormal earnings and unexpected funds flow. Our results indicate that the expected and unexpected net new total flow of funds into all stock mutual funds do not by themselves have a meaningful effect on firm equity valuation. However, we find the combination of unexpected funds flow and realized abnormal earnings have significant and important valuation effects. Importantly, the valuation impact is greatest for those firms with high earnings growth potential that also operate in an environment characterized by high information asymmetry.

Analyst coverage and earnings management

What is the role of information intermediaries in corporate governance? This paper examines equity analysts’ influence on managers’ earnings management decisions. Do analysts serve as external monitors to managers, or do they put excessive pressure on managers? Using multiple measures of earnings management, I find that firms followed by more analysts manage their earnings less. To address the potential endogeneity problem of analyst coverage, I use two instrumental variables based on change in broker size and on firm's inclusion in the Standard & Poor's 500 index, and I find that the results are robust. Finally, given the number of covering analysts, analysts from top brokers and more experienced analysts have stronger effects against earnings management.     

Multiple blockholders and earnings management

This paper examines the impact of multiple blockholders on earnings management when the main conflict of interest is between controlling shareholder and other shareholders. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2000 to 2017 and controlling for potential sample selection and endogeneity, we find that firms with multiple blockholders tend to have higher earnings management than firms with a single controlling shareholder. The positive impact of multiple blockholders on earnings management is more pronounced when those blockholders are the same type – state or private. Earnings management is also enhanced with more large shareholders and higher relative ownership of other large shareholders to the controlling shareholder. The results are consistent with the cost-sharing hypothesis, where the other large shareholders shoulder the costs of earnings management with the controlling shareholder proportionally, but not the private benefits of control. Further tests show that the positive relation between multiple large shareholders and earnings management is less pronounced in firms with stronger internal or external governance. Overall, our paper demonstrates a potential dark side of multiple blockholders from the angle of financial reporting quality.     

Employee effort and earnings management

In this study, we examine the relationship between employee effort within the firm and earnings management, using data on working hours and discretionary accruals. With higher employee effort, we find less earnings management among U.S. firms. This result is stronger when earnings are more predictable and persists after we control for endogeneity. We also find smaller earnings discontinuities with higher employee effort. Our domestic results remain the same with a global sample. Our results suggest that earnings management enables benchmark beating with greater precision than can high employee effort alone, but also that high-effort firms may be misclassified as earnings manipulators.     

Analyst independence and earnings management

We examine whether analyst independence contributes to analysts’ monitoring role in deterring accruals earnings management. We first report a negative association between earnings management and the ratio of independent analysts to brokerage analysts covering a firm. Next, through the lens of the promotion of independent sell-side research institutions by the 2003 Global Research Analyst Settlement, we document a significant decrease in earnings management on firms affected by the Global Settlement's mandate for time-limited support to back independent research institutions. Additionally, we find that, as the aforementioned support ended, the extent of monitoring effectiveness reverted to a level indistinguishable from that before the Global Settlement. Finally, using closures and mergers of independent research institutions as a quasi-natural experiment, we provide corroborating evidence consistent with analyst independence leading to more effective monitoring.     

Earnings management and earnings quality

Viewing the detection of earnings management from the perspective of a crime scene investigator sheds new light on prior research on earnings management and its close relative, earnings quality. The works of Ball and Shivakumar [2008. Earnings quality at initial public offerings. Journal of Accounting and Economics, in press.] and Teoh et al. [1998. Earnings management and the subsequent market performance of initial public offerings. Journal of Finance 53, 1935–1974.] are used to illustrate the application of seven components of a crime scene investigation to earnings management research.     

Disclosure frequency and earnings management

We examine the relation between disclosure frequency and earnings management, and the impact of this relation on post-issue performance, for a sample of seasoned equity offerings (SEOs). We contend that firms with extensive disclosure are less likely to face information problems, leading to less earnings management and better post-issue performance. Our results confirm that disclosure frequency is inversely related to earnings management and positively associated with post-issue performance. We also find that transparency-reducing disclosure is concentrated in firms that substantially, but temporarily, increase disclosure prior to the offering. Such firms exhibit more earnings management and poorer post-SEO stock performance, on average.     

Consistency in meeting or beating earnings expectations and management earnings forecasts

This paper provides evidence that firms that have consistently met or beaten analysts’ earnings expectations (MBE) provide more frequent “bad news” management forecasts than firms with no established string of MBE, particularly when existing analyst forecasts are optimistic. This suggests that firms with a consistent MBE record are more likely to guide analysts’ expectations downward to avoid breaking the consistency. Subsequent analyst forecast revisions following bad news management forecasts issued by these firms are dampened, implying that analysts suspect that these forecasts may be opportunistic. The relation between management forecasts and MBE consistency is stronger after Regulation FD.     

Causal disclosures on earnings and earnings management in an IPO setting

We examine the association of earnings management and narrative impression management as reflected in properties of causal explanations of reported earnings in the prospectus of Chinese IPO firms. Anticipated earnings management concerns are argued to be a significant incentive for causal disclosures on earnings in order to rationalize and legitimize earnings outcomes. We find evidence of close alignment of a firm’s earnings management propensity and its use of tactical causal disclosures. Stronger earnings management is associated with more intense assertive causal disclosure. On the other hand, firms exhibiting stronger earnings management tend to avoid the use of explicit defensive causal disclosure tactics. These findings are consistent with the strong background expectations of managerial agency and control that pervade an IPO setting. Our evidence holds after controlling for endogeneity within the context of an opportunistic disclosure position.