Embodied uncertainty: living with complexity and natural hazards

In this paper, we examine the concept of embodied uncertainty by exploring multiple dimensions of uncertainty in the context of risks associated with extreme natural hazards. We highlight a need for greater recognition, particularly by disaster management and response agencies, of uncertainty as a subjective experience for those living at risk. Embodied uncertainty is distinguished from objective uncertainty by the nature of its internalisation at the individual level, where it is subjective, felt and directly experienced. This approach provides a conceptual pathway that sharpens knowledge of the processes that shape how individuals and communities interpret and contextualise risk. The ways in which individual characteristics, social identities and lived experiences shape interpretations of risk are explored by considering embodied uncertainty in four contexts: social identities and trauma, the co-production of knowledge, institutional structures and policy and long-term lived experiences. We conclude by outlining the opportunities that this approach presents, and provide recommendations for further research on how the concept of embodied uncertainty can aid decision-making and the management of risks in the context of extreme natural hazards.     

From joint to single audits – audit quality differences and auditor pairings

This study analyses audit quality differences between audits by a single big audit firm and joint audits with either one or two big audit firms. We exploit the unique situation in Denmark beginning on 1 January 2005, at which time a long-standing mandatory joint audit system for listed companies was replaced by a voluntary joint audit system. First, we report the results of a survey of Danish CFOs’ views on and their experiences with the choice of single or joint audits and their perceptions of audit quality. Second, based on data from the mandatory joint audit abolition year and the following two years, we test the audit quality differences using abnormal accruals. Most CFOs perceive that audit quality by a single big four audit firm is the same as it is in joint audits with either one or two big four audit firms. The results of our empirical analysis are in line with the perceptions. We find no evidence of audit quality differences between audits made by a single big four firm and those conducted by either of the two combinations of joint audits.     

Portfolio Analysis Using Single Index,Multi-Index,and Constant Correlation Models: A Unified Treatment

In this study a simple common algorithm which is applicable to seven models is proposed for optimal portfolio selection disallowing short sales of risky securities. The models considered in the analysis consist of a single index model, four multi-index models, and two constant correlation models. Unlike the previous approach, the proposed algorithm does not require explicit ranking of securities. Therefore, it is particularly useful for two multi-index models with orthogonal indices which do not provide any ranking criterion. Also, because of its algorithmic efficiency as demonstrated in a simulation study on models with multiple groups, the approach here can enhance their usefulness in portfolio analysis.     

Growing pains: The evolution of new stock index futures in emerging markets

Analyzing the first seven years of trading in Turkish stock index futures (BIST 30) and contrasting that to the progress of Korean (KOSPI 200) and Taiwanese (TAIEX) markets, we find that BIST 30 initially experiences a persistent mispricing and speculative trading similar to KOSPI 200 but it also experiences the largest increase in hedge effectiveness, becoming hedger-dominated similar to TAIEX. Most significantly, we demonstrate that spot market short-sell quote volume is a good measure of short-sale constraints and a significant determinant of mispricing in BIST 30. A methodological contribution of this paper is a four-equation multivariate VAR framework to analyze the volatility impact of futures.     

Social risks and challenges in post-disaster resettlement: the case of Lake Nyos,Cameroon

This paper examines contemporary challenges in post-disaster resettlement in Cameroon. The focus is on the ongoing post-disaster experiences of survivors who were resettled in seven camps after the Lake Nyos Disaster in 1986. Empirical data obtained at the Ukpwa Waindo resettlement camp were used for analysis of impoverishment due to relocation and resettlement. Cameroon’s weak macroeconomic situation that started a quarter century ago had serious consequences for the country’s socio-economic trends, which is partly responsible for the slow recovery of disaster survivors. However, an analysis of social vulnerability using Cernea’s Impoverishment Risk and Reconstruction model shows how the involuntary resettlement of disaster survivors has itself created deep seated socio-economic and cultural consequences. By analysing their socio-economic situation, this article shows that resettlement is not merely a housing solution, but a complex, multi-dimensional process, with potentially very high negative impact if not properly planned and implemented. Therefore, the lessons learnt from this resettlement experience can be applied to ensure that resettlement becomes an opportunity to improve resilience and living conditions of the stricken population, and reduce exposure to disaster risk. There is urgent need for the government to tackle these long-term socio-economic problems faced by the disaster survivors, and to develop an effective policy to reconstruct, protect, improve or at least restore the livelihoods of those subject to resettlement.     

Culture Matters: How Our Culture Affects the Audit*

If the influence of national cultures on the implementation of global standards is not taken into account, the result will be inconsistent implementation at best and outright failure at worst. The experiences in fields such as medicine, peacekeeping, aviation, and environmental protection offer insight into possible difficulties with the implementation, beginning in 2010, of International Standards on Auditing (ISAs) by members of the International Federation of Accountants. Some countries may have difficulty with implementation because of the differences between their cultural assumptions and those embodied in the standards to be adopted. It is too soon to know if and where that will happen, especially because the data on first experiences will not begin to be available until 2013. However, cultural‐comparison data can be used to foresee which countries may have difficulty with implementation. But if unintended consequences do become evident, it will be important not to assume that the standards and the standard‐setting process are defective; it is more likely that practitioners will need help in interpreting the ISAs in light of their local culture. A useful first step would be for standard‐setting bodies to identify explicitly the cultural assumptions inherent in the standards they produce. The standard setters can then give that information to those responsible for standards implementation at the practitioner level to help promote consistent application of the standards globally.     

The seven ages of the leader

Leaders go through many transitions in their careers. Each brings new crises and challenges--from taking over a damaged organization to having to fire somebody to passing the baton to the next generation. These moments can be wrenching--and can threaten your confidence--but they're also predictable. Knowing what to expect can help you get through and perhaps emerge stronger. In this engaging article, Warren G. Bennis, professor and founding chairman of the University of Southern California's Leadership Institute, reflects on leadership, recounting his own experiences as a young lieutenant in the infantry in World War II, as the new president of a university, and as the mentor to a unique nursing student. Bennis also describes the experiences of other leaders he has known throughout his career. Drawing on more than 50 years of academic research and business expertise--and borrowing from Shakespeare's seven ages of man--Bennis says the leader's life unfolds in seven stages. "The infant executive" seeks to recruit a mentor for guidance. "The schoolboy" must learn how to do the job in public, subjected to unsettling scrutiny of every word and act. "The lover with a woeful ballad" struggles with the tsunami of problems every organization presents. "The bearded soldier" must be willing--even eager--to hire people better than he is, because he knows that talented underlings can help him shine. "The general" must become adept at not simply allowing people to speak the truth but at actually being able to hear what they are saying. "The statesman" is hard at work preparing to pass on wisdom in the interests of the organization. And, finally, "the sage" embraces the role of mentor to young executives.     

Changing Labor Market Conditions and Economic Development in Hong Kong, the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan, China

In the newly industrializing economies (NIEs) of Hong Kong,the Republic of Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan (China), the entireworking population has benefited from labor market institutions.The East Asian NIEs attained and maintained generally full employment,improved their job mixes, raised real earnings, and loweredtheir rates of poverty. This article reaches two principal conclusions. First, labormarket conditions continued to improve in all four economiesin the 1980s at rates remarkably similar to their rates of aggregateeconomic growth. Second, labor market repression was not a majorfactor in the growth experiences of these economies in the 1980s.It thus appears that labor market repression is neither necessarynor desirable for outward-oriented economic development.     

Transparency of environmental decision making: a case study of soil cleanup inside the Hanford 100 area

Environmental decisions in a democracy should be transparent. Transparency allows all those who are interested in a decision to understand what is being decided and why. Transparency is especially critical for decisions that are intended to protect public health and safety, and that have long‐term consequences. Decisions are recorded through publicly available documents (such as Records of Decision), collectively known as the public record. In this paper the transparency of the public record is examined for a specific decision at the US Department of Energy (DOE) Hanford site. To do this, the concept of transparency is unpacked into seven objectives: clarity, accessibility, integration, logic/rationale, truth/accuracy, openness, and accountability; and a framework for measuring decision transparency is developed. Then a Record of Decision is evaluated based on four of the seven objectives. Throughout, the importance of understanding decision processes and expected outcomes, and the broad values underpinning activities and choices are emphasized. It is found that, while many aspects of the process are transparent, it is difficult to discern and connect the values, objectives, subobjectives and criteria used as the basis of the decision. Several information structuring improvements (value trees, decision paths, and simple graphics and tables) that could make the public record more transparent are suggested. Such improvements are necessary for long‐term stewardship because future decision makers are likely to rely on the public record as the primary source of decision information. If information is not transparent, future decisions may be compromised.     

Static hedges for reverse barrier options with robustness against skew risk: an empirical analysis

We conduct an empirical evaluation of a static super-replicating hedge of barrier options. The hedge is robust to uncertainty about the future skew. Using almost seven years of current data on the DAX, we evaluate the performance of the hedge and compare it with those of both a dynamic and a static replicating hedge. The main result is that the robustness of the static super-replicating portfolio is also empirically confirmed in practice such that the hedge sets an upper bound for the price of skew risk for barrier options.     

日本房地产税制改革及其启示

本文认为,我国目前房地产市场环境与日本20世纪七八十年代面临的环境有颇多相似之处,因而日本房地产税制改革的经验对我国有很好的启示作用。第二次世界大战后日本房地产税收政策先后进行了7次较大的改革和调整,文章对此进行了较详细的梳理,并评价了其政策效应,以期为我国充分运用财税政策,加大房地产市场宏观调控力度,提供借鉴和思路。     

体育教学与运动技能形成规律的研究

任何技术动作的形成都要经过泛化过程、分化过程、巩固过程,最后达到自动化程度。这是体育教学中运动技能形成的四个阶段。这是一个复杂而精细的过程,需要教师和学生付出一定的劳动与智慧。     

The differences in perception of radiological risks: lay people versus new and experienced employees in the nuclear sector

This paper studies the differences in perception of two radiological risks – an accident at a nuclear installation and medical X-rays – between four different groups: the general population without (1) and with experience related to radiological risks (2), new employees (3) and professionally exposed people (4) in the nuclear sector. More precisely, this study determines if differences in risk perception can be explained by the level of experiences with ionizing radiation, the knowledge level about radiological risks, the confidence in authorities, the attitude towards nuclear energy, the trust in a management of nuclear installations, gender and age. The data are gathered using computer assisted personal interviews based on the SCK-CEN Barometer of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre. The relations between risk perception and the independent variables are tested with linear regression analysis. The risk perception of both risks differs significantly between the four population groups. The professionally exposed people and the new employees in the nuclear sector have a significant higher risk perception for medical X-rays compared to the risk for an accident at a nuclear installation. For the general population without experience, it was just the opposite. The general population with experience does not have a significant difference in risk perception between the two radiological risks. Level of experiences with ionizing radiation is determined as an important variable; people have a lower perception of radiological risks when they have higher experiences with risk.     

Mark Twain’s Cat: Investment experience,categorical thinking,and stock selection

This paper examines the effect of prior investment experience in specific industries on subsequent investment decisions. Using households’ trading records from a large discount broker between 1991 and 1996, I find that prior success in a given industry increases the likelihood of subsequent purchases in the same industry. The effect is stronger for more recent experiences and for less sophisticated or diversified investors, and it is not wealth enhancing. The results suggest investors categorize industries at a highly resolved level, finer than the Fama–French ten-industry classification. Similar effects are also apparent for size- and value-based categories but at smaller magnitudes.     

Welcome to the experience economy

First there was agriculture, then manufactured goods, and eventually services. Each change represented a step up in economic value--a way for producers to distinguish their products from increasingly undifferentiated competitive offerings. Now, as services are in their turn becoming commoditized, companies are looking for the next higher value in an economic offering. Leading-edge companies are finding that it lies in staging experiences. To reach this higher level of competition, companies will have to learn how to design, sell, and deliver experiences that customers will readily pay for. An experience occurs when a company uses services as the stage--and goods as props--for engaging individuals in a way that creates a memorable event. And while experiences have always been at the heart of the entertainment business, any company stages an experience when it engages customers in a personal, memorable way. The lessons of pioneering experience providers, including the Walt Disney Company, can help companies learn how to compete in the experience economy. The authors offer five design principles that drive the creation of memorable experiences. First, create a consistent theme, one that resonates throughout the entire experience. Second, layer the theme with positive cues--for example, easy-to-follow signs. Third, eliminate negative cues, those visual or aural messages that distract or contradict the theme. Fourth, offer memorabilia that commemorate the experience for the user. Finally, engage all five senses--through sights, sounds, and so on--to heighten the experience and thus make it more memorable.     

Genetics,Homeownership, and Home Location Choice

We find that a significant proportion of the cross-sectional variation in the choice to own or rent is attributable to a genetic factor, while parental influence is not found to affect this choice. We also find evidence of gene-environment interactions: The environment moderates genetic effects on homeownership in that growing up in a wealthier family results in a stronger expression of genetic predispositions, while idiosyncratic life experiences appear to explain a larger portion of the variation in homeownership among those who grew up in a less wealthy family environment. Furthermore, we find that home location choices, for example, a familiar home location close to one’s birthplace and an urban versus a rural home location, are explained by both genetic factors and parental influence. Because we control for an extensive set of individual characteristics analyzed in existing research, an interpretation of our evidence is that an individual’s preferences with respect to homeownership and home location are partly genetic. The findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the factors that explain individual behavior with respect to the housing market, and add to an expanding literature on the biological and genetic factors that influence individuals’ economic and financial decisions.     

What it means to work here

What distinguishes a company that has deeply engaged and committed employees from another one that doesn't? It's not a certain compensation scheme or talent-management practice. Instead, it's the ability to express to current and potential employees what makes the organization unique. Companies with highly engaged employees articulate their values and attributes through "signature experiences"--visible, distinctive elements of the work environment that send powerful messages about the organization's aspirations and about the skills, stamina, and commitment employees will need in order to succeed there. Whole Foods Market, for example, uses a team-based hiring and orientation process to convey to new employees the company's emphasis on collaboration and decentralization. At JetBlue, the reservation system is run by agents from their homes, a signature experience that boosts employees' satisfaction and productivity. Companies that successfully create and communicate signature experiences understand that not all workers want the same things. Indeed, employee preferences are an important but often overlooked factor in the war for talent. Firms that have engendered productive and engaged workforces address those preferences by following some general principles: They target potential employees as methodically as they target potential customers; they shape their signature experiences to address business needs; they identify and preserve their histories; they share stories--not just slogans--about life in the firm; they create processes consistent with their signature experiences; and they understand that they shouldn't try to be all things to all people. The best strategy for coming out ahead in the war for talent is not to scoop up everyone in sight but to attract the right people--those who are intrigued and excited by the environment the company offers and who will reward it with their loyalty.     

Exploring customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations among generations X,Y and Z

Customer’s adoption of mobile banking portrays tremendous growth in developing countries. However, it seems that there is a lack of studies about customer’s experiences and expectations on mobile banking services, and more research is needed considering generational differences between mobile banking customers in Iran. The purpose of this study is to explore the customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations among generations X, Y, and Z in a developing country context, Iran. Twenty-seven in-depth interviews were conducted from active users of mobile banking services with a generational split in Iran. A qualitative content analysis was employed to understand customer’s mobile banking experiences and expectations. This study identified specific features of different generations regarding their experiences and expectations of mobile banking services. Each generation displayed distinct characteristics of mobile banking. Generation X customers perceive mobile banking as complicated; generation Y customers prefer to use mobile banking for quick payments, while generation Z customers want to have more customized services and ranked mobile banking as a spontaneous solution. Every generation expects different features to focus on: generation X expects to have more user-friendly functions; generation Y prefers to have an online transaction tracker while generation Z appeals to have enhanced the user interface. This study offers a detailed strategic starting point for management to tailor dynamic customer expectations among different generations.     

Tax credits,income support,and partnership decisions

This paper considers the potential impact of welfare benefits on the partnership status of women in the UK. Using recent policy reforms to identify the response rate, it was found that a ￡100/week welfare benefit “partnership penalty” reduces the probability of a woman having a partner by seven percentage points. The model is also used to explore the potential effects of the recent tax credit reforms on partnership rates; it was found that while the 1999 WFTC reform improved partnership incentives, this effect was effectively undone by the 2003 WTC/CTC reform.      

产业集群、区域经济与金融深化——金融支持中国戴南产业集群发展模式研究

积极实施城市反哺农村,工业反哺农业,以工业化致富农民,城市化带动农村,产业化提升农业,是建设社会主义新农村的成功经验。金融作为现代经济的核心,是支持社会主义新农村建设不可或缺的重要因素。本文结合中国戴南产业集群发展的轨迹,剖析了戴南产业集群发展的现状、特点以及制约集群进一步发展的金融瓶颈,提出了金融支持戴南产业集群发展的构想,着重指出了转变观念、创新机制、组合产品、完善体系等四个方面金融支持的新路径,为金融助推产业集群在经济欠发达地区的率先发展,提供了重要的实践模式。