Long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in case of Pakistan

The present empirical work aims to investigate the long term effect of trade openness on economic growth in the case of Pakistan from 1971 to 2009. A composite trade openness index is developed by using principal component analysis (PCA) and is employed in the JJ cointegration, autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, dynamic OLS and variance decomposition. The results suggest the existence of a negative and significant association between trade openness and economic growth. But new evidence provided by this study is that there is a strong complementary between human capital and trade openness index in terms of enhancing the real GDP.     

Foreign direct investment,political conflict and co-operation: The asymmetric response hypothesis

Previous empirical research has demonstrated that political factors do affect the foreign direct investment decisions of multinational enterprises. This study explores the nature of this relationship in more depth. Specifically, it examines the extent to which investors response to political conflict and co-operation is asymmetric, i.e. investors respond differently depending on whether the political conflict or cooperation is increasing or decreasing. The asymmetric response hypothesis is tested through regression analysis of pooled time-series (13 years) and cross-sectional (62 countries) data on Japanese investors. The study finds evidence of asymmetry for intra-nation conflict and co-operation but not for inter-nation conflict and co-operation.     

Foreign direct investment and its determinants: A regional panel causality analysis

Moving beyond traditional one- or possibly two-way causality involving foreign direct investment (FDI), a systematic approach is implemented for delineating both short- and long-run flows of causality involving FDI and a comprehensive set of FDI's possible determinants. Granger causality procedures incorporating error correction terms are implemented, using provincial panel data from China. In both the short and long run, growth in GDP directly influences FDI, while growth in local infrastructure and local investment provide indirect but not direct influence.     

Foreign direct investment and small firm employment in northern Mexico: 1987-1996

This study analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on small business employment along the border in Mexico between 1987 and 1996. During this period, unprecedented levels of foreign direct investment flowed to Mexico, most notably to the northern border region. At the same time, it appears that internal migration of workers from the interior to the border occurred in response to employment generated by this investment. Utilizing 1987 and 1996 data from the Encuesta Nacional de Empleo Urbano, bivariate probit models of employment and small/ large firm employment for the border and interior regions are estimated. The results suggest that the increased employment share captured by large firms in the border may have hindered growth in the small business sector. A better understanding of the impact of FDI flows on small businesses may help policymakers in developing countries as they strive to create broad-based economic growth.     

Innovation,finance, and economic growth: an agent-based approach

This paper extends the endogenous growth agent-based model in Fagiolo and Dosi (Struct Change Econ Dyn 14(3):237–273, 2003) to study the finance–growth nexus. We explore industries where firms produce a homogeneous good using existing technologies, perform R&D activities to introduce new techniques, and imitate the most productive practices. Unlike the original model, we assume that both exploration and imitation require resources provided by banks, which pool agent savings and finance new projects via loans. We find that banking activity has a positive impact on growth. However, excessive financialization can hamper growth. Indeed, we find a significant and robust inverted U-shaped relation between financial depth and growth. Overall, our results stress the fundamental (and still poorly understood) role played by innovation in the finance–growth nexus.

     

Human capital,investment and growth: Some results from an endogenous growth model

Recent theoretical literature on the sources of economic growth has emphasized the role of human capital as an internal contributing force in the growth process. Empirical results reported in this paper provide support for this theoretical proposition. Cross-country data from 32 developing countries indicate that human capital (as alternatively measured by the primary school enrollment rate or the adult literacy rate) exerts a significant positive impact upon output growth.     

Role of tariffs,imports substitution and investment efficiency in economic growth of Pakistan

Quality & Quantity - This paper explores the impact of tariffs, imports substitution and investment efficiency on economic growth in Pakistan. For this purpose, secondary data was collected...     

Foreign direct investment and its impact on the Thai economy: the role of financial development

This paper examines the roles of foreign direct investment and financial development in the process of economic development using Thailand as the case study. We argue that better developed financial systems allow an economy to exploit the benefits of foreign direct investment more efficiently. The estimation draws upon an unrestricted error-correction model to avoid omitted lagged variable bias, and an instrumental variable estimator to correct for endogeneity bias. Using annual time series data from 1970 to 2004, the results show that financial development stimulates economic development whereas foreign direct investment impacts negatively on output expansion in the long run. However, an increased level of financial development enables Thailand to gain more from foreign direct investment, suggesting that the impact of foreign direct investment on output growth can be enhanced through financial development. The results are robust to different measures of financial development.      

Agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan: an econometric reassessment

Agriculture sector works as backbone of Pakistan economy. In this modern era, exports work as locomotive of growth train. Pakistan earned a handsome amount through exports of agricultural raw material and refined products. This research investigates that either there is unidirectional or bidirectional association between agricultural exports and economic growth in Pakistan? For empirical investigation of relationships between economic growth and agricultural exports in Pakistan this study used most reliable econometric estimation tools, augmented Dickey–Fuller unit root test, Johansen co-integration and Engle–Granger causality tests for 45 time series annul observations from 1970 to 2014. This research winds up that Pakistan’s agricultural exports have positive but insignificant association with gross domestic product growth. It is due to the primary and raw material agricultural products exports which cannot compete in international markets due to close competitions, lower quality and dearer price. Consequently, receive a trifling amount as exports earnings; contribute slightly in national economic growth.     

Accounting for growth in retail trade: an international productivity comparison

In this paper we argue that the standard approach for measuring output and productivity in the trade sector has become obsolete. The key problem is that changes in prices of goods purchased for resale are not accounted for. We outline a consistent accounting framework for measuring trade productivity and provide new estimates, taking into account purchase prices of goods sold in a double deflation procedure. We find strong productivity improvements in the UK and US compared to France, Germany and The Netherlands since the mid-1990s. This finding is robust for various productivity measurement models.

Crises, portfolio flows, and foreign direct investment: An application to Turkey

We analyze how financial and economic crises affect the relation between the components of capital flows and their determinants in an emerging economy. Our results suggest that the composition of capital flows matters, crises can explain the volatility of portfolio flows and foreign direct investment, and modeling them as endogenous breakpoints improves the results considerably. By using data from the Turkish economy, we estimate these breakpoints together with the parameters of the model and find that they correspond to international and domestic crises that hit the country. Although both components are affected by similar crises, direct investment reacts strongly to the domestic crisis, while portfolios flows are more sensitive to global financial conditions. Breaks also have an effect on the significance and sign of determinants of each type of international investment. Evidence indicates changes in all coefficients in both investment types and suggests that analyses assuming parameter constancy lead to misleading results if they ignore the influence of endogenous breaks.     

上海市外贸发展与经济增长关系实证研究

通过统计计量分析发现,上海对外贸易规模较大且增速较快,对外贸易与经济增长关系密切,二者存在长期稳定的均衡关系,外贸总额或者进口额每增长1%,则GDP将增长0.5%以上。但是,外贸总额、出口额、进口额增长并不是上海经济增长的格兰杰原因,恰好相反,经济增长是短期外贸总额、出口增长的格兰杰原因。     

The role of the elasticity of substitution in economic growth: A cross-country investigation

Although the importance of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor (σ) has long been recognized in several branches of economics, it has not received enough attention in the growth literature. de La Grandville (1989) showed theoretically that at any stage of an economy's development, the growth rate of income per capita is increasing with σ. The higher is σ, the greater the similarity between capital and labor in the production function, and thus diminishing returns set in very slowly. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that tests the hypothesis that growth rate is increasing with the value of σ at the cross-country level. We estimate σ for 90 countries from direct estimation of the normalized CES production function and then include these estimators as an explanatory variable in cross-country growth regression. We investigate the sign and significance of the coefficient of σ conditioning on country characteristics, initial conditions, and a set of policy variables. After accounting for endogeneity and the fact that σ is a “generated” regressor, we find strong support for the hypothesis. The result is robust to both Leamer's (1983) extreme value analysis and Bayesian model averaging. About a fifth to a quarter of the growth rate differential between East Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa can be explained by σ alone.     

Location choice for direct foreign investment in new hospitals in China by using ANP and TOPSIS

This study models location choices for foreign direct investments in new hospitals in China as an multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) problem and designs develops a multidirectional relationship decision model combines the techniques of analytic network process (ANP) and technique for order performance based on similarity to the ideal solution (TOPSIS). This study discusses applying ANP to the relative weighting of multiple assessment criteria. The TOPSIS approach is employed to rank 15 counties without the Zhoushan of China’s Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region in terms of their overall performance under the decision model. To illustrate how the proposed approach is applied to the problem of selecting locations for new hospitals in China an empirical study of a real case is performed. This study demonstrates the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed assessment procedure.     

The information revolution,innovation diffusion and economic growth: an examination of causal links in European countries

Quality & Quantity - Over the last 5 decades, the economic landscape in Europe has been transformed rapidly due to innovation, digitisation of the economy, and emergence of new sources of...     

The impact of foreign trade issues on economic growth in some developing countries including Iran and Turkey

The issue of foreign trade and economic growth have been on the economic agenda for centuries. Foreign trade is a facilitator of goods and services exchange in the global marketplace and is an engine of economic growth in a country. Moreover, economic growth is a means to improve the output, employment opportunities, and welfare, which in turn could make a favorable impact on the positive foreign trade balance. Economic growth is also an essential component of country competitiveness in international markets. Yet, the objective of this study is to analyze the correlation between foreign trade and economic growth in some developing countries, including Iran and Turkey, by using econometrics applications (panel co-integration method and E-views software), also resting on credible national and international publications. Thus, it is estimated in the study that foreign trade has a positive impact on economic growth, resource allocation, energy and green energy consumption, human capital development, and physical capital consumption.     

Corruption, economic growth, and income inequality in Africa

This paper uses panel data from African countries and a dynamic panel estimator to investigate the effects of corruption on economic growth and income distribution. I find that corruption decreases economic growth directly and indirectly through decreased investment in physical capital. A unit increase in corruption reduces the growth rates of GDP and per capita income by between 0.75 and 0.9 percentage points and between 0.39 and 0.41 percentage points per year respectively. The results also indicate that increased corruption is positively correlated with income inequality. The combined effects of decreased income growth and increased inequality suggests that corruption hurts the poor more than the rich in African countries. Received: March 19, 2001 / Accepted: December 14, 2001 RID="*" ID="*" An earlier version of this paper was presented at the first AmFiTan International Conference on Development Ethics in February 2000, Dar er Salaam, Tanzania. I thank two anonymous referees of this Journal for helpful suggestions. I am, however, solely responsible for any remaining errors.     

Demographic transition,education and economic growth in Tunisia

This paper provides empirical evidence supporting the interaction between fertility, education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that correlation in accordance with Becker's theory. In consistency with the theory, the key explanatory variables in Tunisia's fertility model are real GDP per capita, infant mortality, contraceptive use ratio, and education. As opposed to most empirical works, the present study takes into consideration three educational levels, i.e., primary, secondary and higher. Also unlike most empirical research, this study attempts to analyse the impact of fertility transition on education and economic growth. To deal with too little or incomplete data, time series data for Tunisia are computed over 45 years. A multivariate cointegration analysis is carried out and shows that a long-term triangular relationship exists. A short dynamic run analysis based on the vector correction error model displays results in coherence with and close to those of the long term. Among our key results, education is found to trigger fertility transition both in the short and long run. In addition, education has relatively fostered economic growth but hardly boosted it through its dynamic interaction with fertility. Furthermore, the variance decomposition and the impulse function show that the fertility transition has produced a feedback effect on both education and economic growth.