Inflation-targeting and real interest rate parity: A bias correction approach

This paper investigates whether inflation-targeting influences real interest rate parity (RIP) by a bias correction approach under cross-sectional dependence. The recursive mean adjustment (RMA) method proposed by So and Shin (1999) and Shin and So (2001) is employed to correct the downward bias in the panel unit root tests and in the half-life estimates of real interest rate differentials for traded and non-traded goods. The empirical findings differ depending on whether we apply the RMA. More importantly, the empirical results show that as more homogeneous economies become involved in terms of inflation-targeting regime, stronger mean reversion and much a tighter confidence interval are present. Thus, inflation-targeting plays an important role in providing favorable evidence for long-run RIP.     

Does the vector error correction model perform better than others in forecasting stock price? An application of residual income valuation theory

This paper employs a multi-equation model approach to consider three statistic problems (heteroskedasticity, endogeneity and persistency), which are sources of bias and inefficiency in the predictive regression models. This paper applied the residual income valuation model (RIM) proposed by Ohlson (1995) to forecast stock prices for Taiwan three sectors. We compare relative forecasting accuracy of vector error correction model (VECM) with the vector autoregressive model (VAR) as well as OLS and RW models used in the prior studies. We conduct out-of-sample forecasting and employ two instruments to assess forecasting performance. Our empirical results suggest that the VECM statistically outperforms other three models in forecasting stock prices. When forecasting horizons extend longer, VECM produces smaller forecasting errors and performs substantially better than VAR, suggesting that the ability of VECM to improve VAR forecast accuracy is stronger with longer horizons. These findings imply that an error correction term (ECT) of the VECM contributes to improving forecast accuracy of stock prices. Our economic significance analyses and robustness tests for different data frequency are in favor of the superiority of VECM estimator.     

Testing the null hypothesis of no regime switching with an application to GDP growth rates

This paper presents tests for the null hypothesis of no regime switching in Hamilton’s (Econometrica 57:357–384, 1989) regime switching model. The test procedures exploit similarities between regime switching models, autoregressions with measurement errors, and finite mixture models. The proposed tests are computationally simple and, contrary to likelihood based tests, have a standard distribution under the null. When the methodology is applied to US GDP growth rates, no strong evidence of regime switching is found. I thank Don Andrews, Peter Phillips, Yuichi Kitamura, Anat Bracha, Patrik Guggenberger, Orit Whiteman and three anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions.     

教育错配对工资的惩罚效应——来自中国微观面板数据的证据

教育错配如何影响工资?文章基于2010?2014年中国家庭追踪调查面板数据,基于固定效应模型和工具变量估计,测度了教育错配产生的工资惩罚效应及其产生的理论机制.研究表明:过度教育员工每过度一年将承受1.4%的工资惩罚,教育不足员工将获得2.4%的工资红利.工作所需教育水平是40岁以上员工工资的主要决定因素;随着任职生涯的推进,教育错配会得到改善;教育错配与人力资本之间存在补偿机制.文章的政策涵义是:教育主管部门应从市场需求端改革教育体系,提供市场需要的相应技能毕业生.高校应主动顺应社会主义市场经济需求,及时有效地调整学科专业结构和人才培养结构.企业应建立人才识别和多层奖惩机制,充分释放过度教育者的劳动生产率水平.政府应加强就业指导工作,帮助求职者精准定位与其教育水平相匹配的工作,以减少搜寻成本.     

Judicial error and cooperation

Cooperation can be induced by an authority with the power to mete out sanctions for free riders, but law enforcement is prone to error. This paper experimentally analyzes preferences for and consequences of errors in formal sanctions against free riders in a public goods game. With type I errors, even full contributors to the public good may be punished. With type II errors, free riders may go unpunished. We find that judicial error undermines cooperation and that the effects of type I and II errors are symmetric. To investigate their relative (dis-)like for error, we let subjects choose what type of error to prevent. We find that subjects prefer type II over type I errors. However, the strength of preferences for preventing type I errors is fully in line with a motive to maximize income and does not indicate any additional psychological or fairness bias against type I errors.     

The limit of oversight in policing: Evidence from the 2001 Cincinnati riot

Oversight in policing involves investigating officers for complaints against them and punishing them if found guilty. Officers commit errors in policing and, since reducing the error rate is costly, they cut down policing to avoid complaints. This paper tests the hypothesis that oversight reduces policing by exploiting a quasi-experiment: In April 2001, a riot erupted in Cincinnati after a white officer shot dead an unarmed African-American adolescent; the sharply increased media attention, a Justice Department investigation, together with a “racial profiling” lawsuit, exogenously raised the expected penalty of an officer's errors. Compared with the period from January 1999 to March 2001, arrests during the remaining months of 2001 fell substantially. The decline was more significant for offenses where the error rate was higher. Communities with a greater percentage of African-Americans experienced greater arrest reductions. Felony crime surged during the same period.     

Poverty Mapping with Aggregate Census Data: What is the Loss in Precision?

Spatially disaggregated maps of the incidence of poverty can be constructed by combining household survey data and census data. In some countries (notably China and India), national statistics agencies are reluctant, for reasons of confidentiality, to release household‐level census data, but they are generally more willing to release aggregated census data, such as village‐ or district‐level means. This paper examines the loss in precision associated with using aggregated census data instead of household‐level data to generate poverty estimates. The authors show analytically that using aggregated census data will result in poverty rates that are biased downward (upward) if the rate is below (above) 50%, and that the bias approaches zero as the poverty rate approaches zero, 50%, and 100%. Using data from Vietnam, it is found that the mean absolute error in estimating district‐level poverty rates is 2.5 percentage points if the census data are aggregated to the enumeration‐area level means, and 3–4 percentage points if the data are aggregated to commune or district level. Finally, the authors propose a method for reducing the error using variances calculated from the census. When this approach is applied to the Vietnam data, this method can cut the size of the aggregation errors by around 75%.     

The returns to education and wage penalty from overeducation: New evidence from Vietnam

This study intends to estimate the rate of returns to education in Vietnam, the distributive effects of education on wages, and the wage penalty from the incidence of overeducation in the Vietnamese labor market during 2004–2016. This study employs a pseudo-panel approach to address omitted variables bias and the unconditional quantile regression to identify the heterogeneity of returns to education across the income distribution. Our main finding indicates that the estimated rate of returns to education in Vietnam is approximately 6.5%, showing a downward bias from previous estimates. The returns vary across wage distributions, where a lower rate of return is observed in lower quantiles and a higher rate among those individuals at the higher quantiles. The returns to education have declined since 2008, confirming the oversupply of highly educated workers in the Vietnamese labor market with an estimated wage penalty of 17%. Government assistance measures are needed to reduce the overeducation and the wage penalty issues in the Vietnamese labor market.     

Football players’ career and wage profiles

The objective of this article is to look over football players’ career path, from lower leagues to the first league, and the associated wage profile. The information comes from a Portuguese longitudinal matched employer–employee data set defining several career events according to players’ movement across football clubs and across professional and semi-professional leagues. Our identifying strategy relies on coach changes to reduce the potential bias resulting from players’ moves between clubs. The estimated first-difference wage equations indicate that players can expect a wage premium when they get transferred to new clubs in higher leagues or a wage penalty when moving to lower leagues. Players who stay in the same club after the club being relegated can also expect a wage penalty.     

Separating small and big fish: The case of income tax evasion

This paper proposes to offer the taxpayer a choice of tax-enforcement schemes for self-selection. More specifically, the taxpayer should have the possibility of opting for the prevailing regime with a certain penalty on the evaded tax or for an alternative regime with a higher penalty on the evaded tax but a reduced tax rate. It is shown that this leads to a separation of taxpayers characterized by a relatively high degree of evasion (H-evaders) from taxpayers who evade only a relatively small amount of tax (L-evaders). Furthermore, the procedure is not self-defeating, it is effectively possible to direct the efforts of auditing towards the H-evaders. At the end of the game the L-evaders experience a welfare gain, the H-evaders are induced to reduce their evasion activities and the government can expect higher yields.We wish to thank Johann K. Brunner and two anonymous referees for many helpful comments.     

Reporting errors, ability heterogeneity, and returns to schooling in China

Abstract. This study is aimed at providing a more accurate estimate of the returns to schooling in China by controlling for unobserved ability heterogeneity and measurement errors. We identify a unique instrument to correct for the omitted ability bias. We find that the attenuation bias caused by measurement error dominates the omitted ability bias in the OLS estimation. Based on the GMM estimation, for young workers in China, the return to schooling is 15.0% overall and 16.9% for women.     

Getting the word out: Enforcement information dissemination and compliance behavior

The question for the tax authority is how individuals become aware of enforcement effort. To be an effective tool in reducing tax evasion taxpayers must be aware of the current audit and penalty regime. We use laboratory experiments to examine the compliance impact of types of information dissemination regarding audit frequency and results. The information includes “official” information disseminated by the tax authority, and “unofficial”, or informal, communications among taxpayers. Our results indicate that the effect of the type of post-audit information is conditional on whether the taxpayer is well informed of the audit rate prior to filing. We find that the tax authority would be served by pre-announcing audit rates credibly and by emphasizing the previous period audit frequency in annual reporting of enforcement effort.     

Energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar: Further evidence from linear and nonlinear causality analysis

The causality relationships between energy prices and exchange rates have been investigated in many existing studies. Previous investigations ignore the possible nonlinear behaviors which may be caused by asymmetry, persistence or structural breaks. To fill this gap, we apply both linear and nonlinear causality tests to examine the causal relationships between energy prices and exchange rates of the U.S. dollar. Our results show that in the period before recent financial crisis, unidirectional linear causality running from petroleum prices to exchange rates and unidirectional nonlinear causality running from exchange rates to natural gas prices are revealed. In the period after the financial crisis, the bidirectional nonlinear causality relationships between petroleum prices and exchange rates can be found and there are no causality between exchange rates and natural gas prices. Moreover, we examine the source of nonlinear behaviors of causality relationships. Our evidence indicates that both volatility spillover and regime shift contribute to nonlinear causality and the explanation power of the former one is much stronger.     

Deterrence, Lawsuits, and Litigation Outcomes Under Court Errors

This article presents a strategic model of liability and litigationunder court errors. Our framework allows for endogenous choiceof level of care and endogenous likelihood of filing and disputes.We derive sufficient conditions for a unique universally divinemixed-strategy perfect Bayesian equilibrium under low courterrors. In this equilibrium, some defendants choose to be grosslynegligent; some cases are filed; and some lawsuits are dropped,some are resolved out of court, and some go to trial. We findthat court errors in the size of the award, as well as damagecaps and split awards, reduce the likelihood of trial but increasefiling and reduce the deterrence effect of punitive damages.We derive conditions under which the adoption of the Englishrule for allocating legal costs reduces filing.     

Cross‐Border Intellectual Property Rights: Contract Enforcement and Absorptive Capacity

This article studies the cross‐border protection of intellectual property rights (IPR) as an outcome of a contract obtained through a Nash bargaining process between an innovative North and an imitative South. The level of disclosure required in such contract is higher, the more capable is the South in copying if bargaining breaks down. This raises questions about the suitability of universal IPR standards through a single contract. The threat of a penalty in case of non‐compliance can, however, reduce the outside option of more advanced countries and make a stricter IPR regime enforceable by harmonizing their interests with relatively less developed nations.     

Morale,performance and disclosure

We study the optimal disclosure policy in a sender–receiver communication game where the receiver's morale, defined as his expected state of the world, affects his performance. The sender observes the state and chooses whether to disclose it to the receiver, who then decides whether to participate in a task. The receiver wins if his performance in the task meets a target. No disclosure is optimal if the receiver wins with average morale in each state. Otherwise, in the threshold disclosure equilibrium that Pareto-dominates full disclosure, the receiver quits as the sender discloses the worst states and wins as the sender withholds the rest. The receiver wins in more states in the Pareto-optimal equilibrium as the sender chooses a non-monotonic disclosure policy. Our theory reveals a trade-off between transparency and efficiency when morale affects performance. It has applications in a broad range of areas including military, family, education and business.     

When do the USDA forecasters make mistakes?

This study analysed forecasts for all US corn, soya bean and wheat categories published within the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE ) reports over the 1987/88 through 2009/10 marketing years in an attempt to identify patterns and better understand when the USDA forecasters make mistakes. Two general sources of errors were investigated: behavioural and macroeconomic factors. The first objective was to examine how these factors affect the size of the forecast error and the second concentrated on the direction of the error due to these effects. Our findings suggest that the largest increase in the size of USDA forecast errors was associated with structural changes in commodity markets that took place in the mid-2000s. Corn, soya bean and wheat forecast errors also grew during the periods of economic growth and with changes in exchange rates, while inflation and changes in oil price had a much smaller impact. With respect to behavioural sources, we identified patterns consistent with leniency and pessimism across different categories. Predictability of forecast errors based on the information available at the time the forecasts are made provides evidence of inefficiency and suggests that these forecasts may be improved using the findings of this study.     

Interest rates,distribution and capital accumulation – A post-Kaleckian perspective on the US and Germany

We analyse the effects of interest rate variations on the rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profit in a simple post-Kaleckian distribution and growth model. This model gives rise to different potential accumulation regimes depending on the values of the parameters in the investment, saving and distribution function. Estimating these core behavioural equations for the US and Germany in the period 1960–2007, we find significant and robust effects of interest payments with the expected sign in each of the equations. Our estimation results imply, both for the US and for Germany, that the effects of changes in the real long-term rate of interest on the equilibrium rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, are characterised by the ‘normal regime’: rising long-term real rates of interest cause falling rates of capacity utilisation, capital accumulation and profits, as well as redistribution at the expense of labour income and hence an increasing profit share in both countries.     

Few and Not So Far Between: A Meta-analysis of Climate Damage Estimates

Given the vast uncertainty surrounding climate impacts, meta-analyses of global climate damage estimates are a key tool for determining the relationship between temperature and climate damages. Due to limited data availability, previous meta-analyses of global climate damages potentially suffered from multiple sources of coefficient and standard error bias: duplicate estimates, omitted variables, measurement error, overreliance on published estimates, dependent errors, and heteroskedasticity. To address and test for these biases, we expand on previous datasets to obtain sufficient degrees of freedom to make the necessary model adjustments, including dropping duplicate estimates and including methodological variables. Estimating the relationship between temperature and climate damages using weighted least squares with cluster-robust standard errors, we find strong evidence that duplicate and omitted variable biases flatten the relationship. However, the magnitude of the bias greatly depends on the treatment of speculative high-temperature (>4 \(^{\circ }\)C) damage estimates. Replacing the DICE-2013R damage function with our preferred estimate of the temperature–damage relationship, we find a three- to four-fold increase in the 2015 SCC relative to DICE, depending on the treatment of productivity. When catastrophic impacts are also factored in, the SCC increases by four- to five-fold.     

Currency Regime and Monetary Autonomy. Empirical Evidence Using Recent and Global Data from 1990 to 2007

This paper analyzes the exchange rate regimes from the perspective of monetary independence. To be specific, using recent and global data, we examine the sensitivity of domestic interest rates to the international interest rate, by conducting co-integration tests and by estimating the adjustment speeds through error-correction model, for different de facto currency regimes and for different types of capital markets. Our estimation results basically support the traditional views of ‘impossible trinity’, as far as the cases with open capital markets are concerned. The floating regime shows the less sensitivity of domestic interest rates to the international interest rate than the fixed regime does, which implies some capacity for domestic monetary autonomy under the floating regime. The cases with closed capital markets, on the other hand, include the cases showing high sensitivity of interest rates in some emerging market economies, which might imply the ‘fear of floating’ hypothesis.