A simple model of macroeconomic policy

This paper develops a simple model of macroeconomic policy in which the government minimizes a loss function with inflation and unemployment as arguments, subject to a Phillips curve constraint. The model is solved and a discrete time approximation taken. The model's empirical predictions are derived and some test results are presented.     

The microfoundations of the microfoundations of Austrian Business Cycle Theory

The Review of Austrian Economics - The Austrian School interpretation of the Keynes-Hayek debate runs counter to the conventional wisdom that Hayek “lost” the debate. Austrians maintain...     

The use of macroeconomic models in economic policy making: The Norwegian experience

Planning in Norway has a long tradition. The use of models is an integral part of short- and medium-term economic policy administration. A large-scale input-output model, MODIS IV, is used as the short- and medium-term forecasting and planning model. The use of the model secures consistency when analysing the economy. The model is very open in the sense that important interrelations in the economy are left out. The model contains only ‘good’ relations in the Leif Johansen sense of the word. Smaller aggregate and more closed versions of the model are used for analysing policy alternatives. These models contain both ‘good’ and ‘bad’ relations. The use of macroeconomic models is an important aid for proposals regarding economic policy in the Ministry of Finance. Because the whole ministry (with expert help from other ministries) takes an active part in the model work, MODIS IV serves as the centralizing mechanism. It helps to make economists from many ministries go around the same centre, speak the same ‘language’ and organize all relevant information and judgements in a consistent way. Experience shows that ‘numbers discipline’ and force the different arguments on to a higher level of precision.     

Tax policy and investment in major U.S. macroeconomic econometric models

In an analysis of six major U.S. quarterly models, the predicted results of tax incentives for investment are found to vary widely. Differences are traced to critical specifications in investment equations. When appropriately revised investment equations are reestimated the role of tax parameters is much reduced, particularly among the high outliers, and the variance among the models is narrowed decidedly. Full model simulations of revised equations suggest that current and proposed incentives such as the investment tax credit and accelerated depreciation are not cost-effective. Increases in investment approximate only half of static tax losses, and budget deficits widen.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy

We investigate the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy using a Bayesian Structural Vector Autoregression (B-SVAR) approach. We identify fiscal policy shocks via a partial identification scheme, but also: (i) include the feedback from government debt; (ii) look at the impact on the composition of output; (iii) assess the effects on asset markets; (iv) use quarterly data; and (v) analyse empirical evidence from the US, the UK, Germany and Italy. The results show that government spending shocks, in general, have a small effect on Gross Domestic Product (GDP); lead to important ‘crowding-out’ effects; have a varied impact on housing prices and generate a quick fall in stock prices. Government revenue shocks generate a mixed effect on housing prices and a small and positive effect on stock prices. The empirical evidence also suggests that it is important to explicitly consider the government debt dynamics in the model.     

Revealed preferences in macroeconomic policy decisions

This paper extends the usual instrument-target framework by directly estimating macroeconomic policy preferences over a number of policy targets using a derived reduced form and then solving the nonlinear optimality conditions for optimal instrument choice. Solving the optimality equations using observations on predetermined variables yields the implicit set of preference weights which induced the observed choices. The derivation format parallels the integrability discussions about consumer preferences implicitly expressed through demand functions. The approach is applied to a simple macro model estimated over the period from 1955 through 1972.     

On the controllability of continuous-time macroeconomic models

Summary (Abstract) It is argued in this paper that an independent control of target variables over time in continuous dynamic macroeconomic systems may not be achievable even though Aoki's well-known rank test for target path controllability is satisfied. It is shown that in many dynamical systems impulse controls are needed to steer the targets along arbitrarily given time paths. Such controls are not admissible from the macroeconomic point of view. By means of the structure algorithm by Silverman and Payne (1971) conditions for target path controllability that depend on the choice of the admissible spaces for the target and the instrument variables, are derived.The author is grateful to Professor Dr. Helmut Kuhn, Göttingen, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Plans,disequilibria and macroeconomic policy simulations

In the paper some specific problems of applying a disequilibrium model of a centrally planned economy for policy simulation experiments are analysed. It is shown that a model in which demand, supply and plan output variables are simultaneously introduced can be used for policy simulation in a more effective way than a model which describes either demand or supply side of an economy. In the empirical part of the paper a disequilibrium-type model of the Polish economy is used for simulating alternative internal and external economic policies for 1971–80. It has been found that internal deflationary policies would have been relatively efficient in minimizing consumption excess demand at a given level of consumption output in the period investigated.     

Playing at markets: A New Austrian perspective on macroeconomic policy

The New Austrian (also called Neo-Mengerian) paradigm emphasizes the importance of nonequilibrium and emergent processes in explaining the social world. In this paper I analyze macroeconomic policy from a New Austrian perspective. I define macroeconomic policy broadly, encompassing not only policy relating to business cycles and growth, but to any policy aimed at directly manipulating emergent variables. Such policy is fundamentally incoherent, since it attempts to divorce social outcomes from the processes that generate them and give them meaning. A New Austrian approach to macroeconomic policy, which focuses on the rules structuring nonequilibrium-emergent social processes, avoids this problem.     

On microfoundations of the city

This paper considers the spatial structure of a city subject to final demand and vertical linkages. Individuals consume differentiated goods (or services) and firms purchase differentiated inputs (or services) in product (or service) markets where firms compete under monopolistic competition. Workers rent their residential lots in an urban land market and contribute to the production of differentiated goods and inputs. We show that firms and workers co-agglomerate and endogenously form a city. We characterize and discuss the spatial distribution of firms and consumers in such cities on one- and two-dimensional spaces. We show that final demand and vertical linkages raise the urban density and reduce the city spread.     

The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain

This paper focuses on the effects of fiscal policy in Spain analysed in a VAR context. Fiscal shocks are found to involve significant effects on GDP, private consumption, private investment, interest rates and prices. Non-Keynesian effects are observed. Moreover, evidence on the channels highlighted in the literature for such effects to arise is found, notably the effects of permanent income on consumption and investment on the demand side, coupled with the response of the equilibrium wage on the supply side affecting entrepreneurial profits and investment. The response of interest rates seems to reinforce both effects. Furthermore, the different readings of spending or taxes do not affect macroeconomic variables homogeneously.     

On macroeconomic instability from a monetarist policy rule

In macroeconomic models that include government budget restraints, following a monetarist policy rule will often result in instability. Here, that result is shown to be crucially dependent upon the assumption that government bonds represent private wealth.     

Voucher privatization: implications for macroeconomic policy1

This paper analyses the impact of voucher privatization schemes on the behaviour of households and the consequences for macroeconomic policy. The stylized facts of the voucher privatization scheme are described for the Czech case. The consumption as well as portfolio decision of households during the voucher scheme are modelled within the framework of a consumption function and a system of demand functions for financial assets. The envelope theorem is used to modify the standard Almost Ideal Demand (AID) system. The empirical results are presented. The paper concludes that the interdependence between privatization and macroeconomic stability should be better understood by policy-makers in transitional countries that are going to adopt a similar approach to privatization to that applied in the Czech Republic.     

Market concentration, macroeconomic uncertainty and monetary policy

This paper studies the effect of market structure and macroeconomic uncertainty on the transmission of monetary policy. We motivate our analysis with a simple model which predicts that: (1) investment and production in more concentrated sectors are more affected by demand shocks and (2) high uncertainty makes investment and production more sensitive to demand shocks. The empirical analysis estimates the effect of monetary shocks on sectoral output for different sectors in the US using a structural vector autoregressive (VAR) approach. The results are generally consistent with the theoretical predictions.     

The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area

We develop a 4-region macroeconomic model of the euro area and the world economy. The model (EAGLE, Euro Area and Global Economy model) is microfounded and designed for conducting quantitative policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence across regions in the euro area and between the euro area and the world economy. Specifically, we simulate a permanent reduction in labor tax rates in the euro area. The effects on real activity are expansionary in both the short run and long run. Implementing reforms simultaneously across regions would produce extra benefits and make the macroeconomic performance in the euro area more even.     

Expectations and the theory of macroeconomic policy: Some recent developments

This paper reviews recent developments in the theory of stabilization policies since the rational expectations revolution. The debate about the neutrality proposition is omitted, and attention is directed at the policy evaluation and the time-inconsistency propositions. It is argued that the open-loop rule of the Friedman type is justifiable only with neutrality, since the techniques of policy evaluation can take into account the restrictions implied by rational expectations. The game-theoretic analyzes by Robert Barro and Donald Gordon support the idea of rules rather than discretion in a novel way, but it is shown that a different reputation mechanism can lead to the “ideal” outcome which is not an equilibrium in the Barro-Gordon analysis.     

Using data envelopment analysis to assess macroeconomic policy performance

It is common practice to summarize the macroeconomic performance of countries in terms of the four well-known dimensions captured by the magic diamond of the OECD. This study provides a comparison of several synthetic indicators that merge the four separate indicators into one single statistic. These indicators are inspired by Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)-based models, which allow for unequal weighting of the different economic objectives. The calculated weights then act as proxies for the true policy priorities. Comparison of the models focuses on the underlying assumptions as well as on the empirical results they generate.     

Monetary policy in search of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth

The question of the implication of the macroeconomic policy environment for welfare may be an empirical one, and the answer may well differ amongst economies. In this paper, we evaluate the role of monetary policy toward inclusive growth. The evidence from a large sample of countries shows that in both the short and long terms, low inflation and stable economic growth are associated with lower income inequality, improved well-being of the poor and greater inclusion. Both short-term and long-run effects are statistically significant and show that monetary policy that aims at low inflation and stable economic growth is most likely to improve permanently growth inclusiveness and the conditions of the poor. However, in advanced economies where inflation rates are considerably lower, disinflation hurts the poor and equity, ignites greater unemployment cost, and worsens growth inclusiveness. In any case, price and output stability is necessary for greater growth inclusiveness. Thus, the twin objectives of macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth offer no trade-offs.     

The diversity of forecasts from macroeconomic models of the US economy

This paper investigates the accuracy and heterogeneity of output growth and inflation forecasts during the current and the four preceding NBER-dated US recessions. We generate forecasts from six different models of the US economy and compare them to professional forecasts from the Federal Reserve??s Greenbook and the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF). The model parameters and model forecasts are derived from historical data vintages so as to ensure comparability to historical forecasts by professionals. The mean model forecast comes surprisingly close to the mean SPF and Greenbook forecasts in terms of accuracy even though the models only make use of a small number of data series. Model forecasts compare particularly well to professional forecasts at a horizon of three to four quarters and during recoveries. The extent of forecast heterogeneity is similar for model and professional forecasts but varies substantially over time. Thus, forecast heterogeneity constitutes a potentially important source of economic fluctuations. While the particular reasons for diversity in professional forecasts are not observable, the diversity in model forecasts can be traced to different modeling assumptions, information sets and parameter estimates.