城市既有居住建筑绿色改造决策权配置研究

城市既有居住建筑绿色改造决策过程复杂烦琐、难度较大,明晰决策主体构成、合理配置决策权是实现决策有效性的关键着力点。利用2-模网络分析方法,从整体视角分析主要利益相关者对绿色改造项目的影响力,进而明确决策主体结构化组成;然后基于局部视角,以决策主体为权利载体实现决策权可视化,探明决策权在不同阶段、不同主体下的特征演变规律,提出决策权配置新思路。研究表明:社区自治组织、改造区域业主及政府部门构成决策核心主体;随着决策过程的推进,控制决策权由核心主体向决策参与主体发生动态转移和分散,从而使决策过程趋向民主、客观及合理化。基于上述研究结果,构建决策权配置框架,并提出针对性建议及措施以保证决策权有效实现。     

Consistent probability attitudes

In this paper, the principle of meaningful measurement of probabilistic attitudes is revisited. A new principle of consistency in probability attitudes is proposed, which allows for the identification of decision weights completely separate from utility. In the familiar and elegant von Neuman–Morgenstern setup of decision under risk with given objective probabilities, it is shown that, in the presence of standard properties for preferences, adding the new consistency principle leads to rank-dependent utility.     

新经济情境下创业决策逻辑路径的选择机制——一项模糊集定性比较分析

新经济环境下如何决策是新创企业生存发展中面临的重大问题。以创业过程模型为基础，结合效果推理理论，从外部创业环境、内部企业能力和决策逻辑3个层面选取影响创业绩效的关键因素，借助模糊集定性比较分析方法，探讨新创企业基于不同情境获得高创业绩效的决策逻辑路径选择机制。研究得出5种高创业绩效构型，归类为2条高创业绩效决策路径并分析了4种情境。其中，大数据能力和效果推理是影响新经济下新创企业实现高创业绩效的关键核心条件。研究结果不仅丰富了效果推理理论，也为新创企业决策及成长带来新视角与新的解释路径，更为新创企业决策提供了情境化借鉴。     

Real options and demographic decisions

The theory of real options is used to incorporate the influence of uncertainty on demographic decision-making. The decision to have children is formulated as an investment using portfolio theory. The timing of the decision to have a child is modelled as a real options decision, with uncertainty affecting a woman's ability to exercise the ‘option to wait’ in order to delay or space births. An increase and reduction in uncertainty on this option is explored. Compared to the widely used net present value (NPV) framework, the real options approach (ROA) better explains the process of demographic decision-making in poor countries.     

Aspirations and women's empowerment: Evidence from Kyrgyzstan

There is an enormous interest in development interventions aimed at reducing behavioural poverty traps, including by raising women's and girls' aspirations, or future-oriented goals. However, little is known about how women's aspirations influence their gender attitudes, the marriages into which they select and their involvement in intra-household decision-making. We find that women in Kyrgyzstan with higher aspirations are more likely to espouse egalitarian gender attitudes, as are their husbands, and their husbands have higher aspirations. They also live in households in which women play a greater role in decision-making, and in which spouses are more likely to agree about women's roles in decision-making.     

Risk, ambiguity, and state-preference theory

The state-preference framework for modeling choice under uncertainty, in which objects of choice are allocations of wealth or commodities across states of the world, is a natural one for modeling ??smooth?? ambiguity-averse preferences. It does not require reference to objective probabilities, personalistic consequences, or counterfactual acts, and it allows for state dependence of utility and unobservable background risk. The decision maker??s local revealed beliefs are encoded in her risk-neutral probabilities (her relative marginal rates of substitution between states) and her local risk preferences are encoded in the matrix of derivatives of the risk-neutral probabilities. This matrix plays a central but generally unappreciated role in the modeling of risk attitudes in the state-preference framework. It can be computed by inverting a bordered Slutsky matrix and vice versa, it generalizes the Arrow?CPratt measure for approximating local risk premia, and its structure reveals whether the decision maker??s risk preferences are ambiguity averse as well as risk-averse. Two versions of the smooth ambiguity model are analyzed??the source-dependent risk aversion model and the second-order uncertainty (KMM) model??and it is shown that in both cases, the overall premium for local uncertainty can be decomposed as the sum of a risk premium and an ambiguity premium.     

信任、制度环境与盈余信息含量——基于中国资本市场的经验研究

投资决策是一种信任决策,会计信息是投资决策的重要依据,良好的制度环境能够增进投资者对代理人提供的会计信息的信任,因此能够提高会计信息的投资有用性。本文主要研究投资者对代理人的信任水平对盈余信息含量的影响,并检验制度环境对盈余信息含量的影响路径。研究表明,投资者对代理人越信任,盈余信息含量越高;良好的制度环境能够提高盈余信息含量,但是这种影响是通过投资者对代理人的信任而间接实现的,当控制了信任水平之后,制度环境的影响随之消失。本文的研究有助于加深人们对制度环境如何影响会计信息有用性的理解。     

基于利益相关者视角的重大决策社会风险评估研究

经过对三门峡水库决策和上海杨浦大桥收费决策两个案例进行分析,借鉴利益相关者理论构建重大决策相关利益群体图,认为重大决策的社会风险评估应通过对决策过程中的重要利益相关者行为进行分析来识别。通过研究发现,在决策问题的识别阶段,决策制定者和媒体容易导致决策的社会风险;拟定决策方案阶段,决策制定者和企业投资者容易导致决策社会风险;决策方案选择阶段,各利益主体的博弈容易导致决策的社会风险。     

Past Experiences,Personality Traits,and Risk Aversion: Evidence from Individual Risk Attitudes during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Individuals’ risk attitudes play an important role in economic decision making and policy evaluation, particularly in the midst of unprecedented uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. We adopt a multiple-price-list elicitation method with real money incentives to measure precisely individuals’ risk attitudes at different stake levels and the extent to which they are affected by personal and social shocks following the COVID-19 outbreak in China. We find that subjects who had previously experienced negative personal shocks are more risk-averse at medium and large stakes but more risk loving at very small stakes. For our sample, COVID-19 has no significant impact on risk attitudes, as it is more likely to be regarded as a social shock. The result indicates that the impact of COVID-19 on individual risk attitudes is not as influential as expected, unless the individual’s personal life is affected directly.     

创业拼凑、机会开发与新创企业创业绩效关系研究

对于新生弱小的新创企业而言,创业拼凑不仅仅是企业行为层面的被迫选择,更潜移默化地转变为企业战略层面的主动决策。在创业拼凑助力新创企业提升创业绩效的问题上,机会开发成为逻辑-行为-结果中关键的一环。从机会开发行为视角,探索创业拼凑决策逻辑对创业绩效的作用机理。实证结果发现,均衡型机会开发、创新型机会开发在创业拼凑与创业绩效的关系中分别存在部分中介效应,相比于创新型机会开发,创业拼凑与均衡型机会开发的匹配有利于获取更高的创业绩效。该研究对于新创企业决策逻辑形成和机会开发选择具有指导意义。     

Some guides for the selection of a decision-making strategy

Advocates of decision strategies contend or imply that a particular strategy should be used for most, if not all, decision-making tasks. This article demonstrates how decision problems faced by executives alter a decision strategy's effectiveness, and provides guides to aid the executive in selecting an appropriate strategy.     

行为决策理论及决策行为实证研究方法探讨

作者对行为决策理论发展的历程及各阶段中决策行为的实证研究方法进行了梳理,发现决策行为的实证研究方法在很大程度上决定了行为决策理论发展的进程。在对决策行为一般实证研究方法及其特点进行分析之后,作者认为观察法较适用于决策行为的初步探索性研究;调查法则较适用于一般决策行为的总体状况和特征的研究;如果理论假说源于决策者某些特定的、深层次的主观动机,假设的证实或者证伪又需要大量的检验,实验法的优势比较明显。为了取得对本研究的实证效果,这里对如何将实验法应用于中国投资者决策行为研究做了一次实证性尝试,以供学术争鸣。     

产业环境、企业家战略领导能力与民营企业绩效

产业环境影响企业决策,作为民营企业创新主体的企业家,其战略领导能力直接影响企业的生存与发展。认知心理学强调人头脑中的知识会对人的认识活动产生影响,而知识主要来自环境和知觉者自身信息。借鉴认知心理学思想,从产业环境与企业家战略领导能力两方面考察其对企业决策活动的影响,以及对企业绩效的作用机理。问卷调研与实证检验表明：企业家战略领导能力通过决策机制影响民营企业绩效,而产业环境在企业家战略领导能力与企业决策机制中起调节效应。研究结论对认识民营企业决策活动、民营企业家战略领导行为,以及提高企业绩效具有积极的借鉴与启示。     

行政决策公众参与的个案考察——以电动车标准之争为例

科学化和民主化是现代行政决策的两个基本趋势,两者密不可分.但是无论是科学化还是民主化都离不开公众的积极参与,公众在行政决策议题选择、行政决策制定和实施等环节的有效参与是行政决策合理化和充分落实的前提.对公众参与行政决策制定存在的许多问题,政府应进一步完善制度化渠道以吸纳民众的利益诉求,推进行政决策的科学化和民主化.     

The Application of Sensitivity Analysis on Comprehensive Transportation Evaluation

Comprehensive transportation evaluation objects using multi-objective decision method is a process of choosing the best one from a few objects through calculating, analyzing, and comparing the index system. The result may be different because of the difference of the index weight and index value. Therefore, sensitivity analysis should be one of the necessary parts of the decision-making. It is desired to give the index with higher sensitivity and its varying scope to control the index strictly during the execution process. This paper derives transfer index weight, which changes the rank evaluation order of the projects. Meanwhile, a simple, effective and practical method based on sensitivity district and sensitivity matrix is proposed for the sensitivity analysis of decision-making. As an example, the index sensitivity in decision-making of some provinces comprehensive transportation objects, and their influence on the final decision are discussed.     

ID3决策树算法分析与高等学校综合教学评价

针对高等学校日常教学管理工作中所积累的大量课堂教学质量评估数据及教育决策对量化分析和研究结果的愈加依赖,应用数据挖掘中的决策树技术,从中找出隐藏的、有价值的知识,可为学校决策部门制定课堂教学管理、提高教学质量、促进教师教学水平和优化教师队伍建设等方面的决策提供科学的依据和参考。     

区域主导产业选择方法研究述评

通过整理已有国内外区域主导产业选择方法,针对区域主导产业选择基准的属性要求,本文得出区域主导产业的选择方法的原则,即所采用的方法应该满足综合评价的三个层次属性:(1)层次性,即每个评价指标转化成无量纲的评价值,用它来进行决策排序;(2)权重相对的客观性。尽量排除主观因素的影响;(3)基准的可筛选或简约性。在众多主导产业选择基准中识别反映选择主体产业特性、发展阶段、区域优势的个性基准,用于支撑最终决策排序。只有符合这些原则的方法选择出来的主导产业,才更加符合区域经济发展的实际要求。     

Faculty participation in university governance and the effects on university performance

This paper examines the relationship between faculty participation in university decision-making and university performance. Using an aggregated measure of faculty participation, McCormick and Meiners [The Journal of Law and Economics 31 (1989) 423] find that increased faculty control in decision-making is associated with lower levels of institutional performance. Building on the existing university governance literature, this paper argues that the optimal level of faculty participation varies by decision type. Disaggregating the data by faculty participation into different decision types produces results that are consistent with this hypothesis. Increased faculty participation may be good or bad; the effects vary by the type of decisions in which faculty participate.     

The somatic marker hypothesis: A neural theory of economic decision

Modern economic theory ignores the influence of emotions on decision-making. Emerging neuroscience evidence suggests that sound and rational decision making, in fact, depends on prior accurate emotional processing. The somatic marker hypothesis provides a systems-level neuroanatomical and cognitive framework for decision-making and its influence by emotion. The key idea of this hypothesis is that decision-making is a process that is influenced by marker signals that arise in bioregulatory processes, including those that express themselves in emotions and feelings. This influence can occur at multiple levels of operation, some of which occur consciously, and some of which occur non-consciously. Here we review studies that confirm various predictions from the hypothesis, and propose a neural model for economic decision, in which emotions are a major factor in the interaction between environmental conditions and human decision processes, with these emotional systems providing valuable implicit or explicit knowledge for making fast and advantageous decisions.     

Family policy,intrahousehold bargaining,and child health

This study examines the effects of an exogenous change in family policy in Ethiopia on women empowerment and the allocation of resources toward child health. Empowerment is formalized as an unobserved latent variable based on a large set of questions pertaining to women's autonomy and decision-making power. Exploiting the time and regional variation in the implementation of the law, the study finds that early implementation of the reform increases women's access to information, literacy and education levels, and their assertiveness toward family planning and domestic violence. In addition, more decision power in the hands of women is found to have a positive impact on investments in the health and nutrition of children. The findings suggest that factors that do not enter the individual's preferences may affect outcomes for individuals and emphasize the role of intrahousehold heterogeneity. The results are robust to a battery of validity and specification checks.